Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

ElTel

Wolf359f wrote: »

There's a few lab specialists on here, maybe they can say how many cycles they do for a test. My understanding of the video is the 78 days is the maximum days they could get a positive from a sample. Which is probably just running an unrealistic number of cycles on the sample.
There's alot more to PCR testing than just slapping it In a machine and waiting.

This is a UK article, didn't they have issues with the home samples not having enough RNA on them to conduct the test (due to being taken by the person and not someone trained) Maybe they increase the cycles to compensate for a bad collection samples?

For me it's the non use of the cycle threshold number.
Does the metadata for Ct number reveal anything useful.

My understanding (and open to correction) is that it's very hard to culture the virus with a Ct number > 30. This number corresponds to a certain concentration of the virus.

A "rough guide" is the "step of 3" so a PCR test result with a Ct of 30 has X10 more virus than one with 33 and X100 more than 36.

So for example say a positive with a Ct of 37 has 40 close contacts, would it be more effective to re-test them again a few days later and see if the Ct is higher? If it's lower, can we be confident that they're past the infectious period?

TonyMaloney

TonyMaloney wrote: »

you've completely neglected hospitalisations and ICU figures.

I'm not sure of who the doctor you're talking about is, but he's definitely not working in Madrid.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DSwlkumcRf6w&ved=2ahUKEwjRmd3A2d7rAhUlShUIHaMDAQsQ3e4CMAV6BAgJECA&usg=AOvVaw2CnzsgOiYz4CONJW40s8Vu

I think you just want to believe it's the same as March April. It's not and won't be:rolleyes:.

amadangomor

joeguevara wrote: »

Firstly what are symptoms of a cold?

Has the child been tested and what is outcome?

What are your symptoms?

If you have symptoms of Covid, then isolate until you know.

Doctor at out of hours service were happy when I took son in Sunday morning. He had a cough and runny nose, maybe sore throat.

I have a runny nose, sore throat and inner ears. I had suspected Covid in April that left me with asthma (Test was cancelled due to lack capacity at that time)

This is totally different and feels like a classic head cold. Covid is more an infection of the lower respiratory tract.

patnor1011

mandrake04 wrote: »

You should write a strongly worded letter to the Irish government explaining that Ireland only really had 3000 cases, the other 27,000 were not infected at all.

Since it is your idea go for it. I do not care.

bb1234567

[Deleted User] wrote: »

In the world!! Some regions are only going through what we had in mar/May now. Disagree with Spain and France. Lots of cases very few deaths. Worldometers does not lie. You do know people die of colds flu every year? This is not the same in Europe as Mar/April. Spanish icu doctor said recently he thinks vaccine is possibly a total waste of time as threat of covid in his region is largely over. Cases Yes, serious illness No.

What region is he in? I wouldn't call 1050 people in Spain in icu and many thousands more hospitalised currently insignificant

Treepole

Gael23 wrote: »

Not until your tested

If a GP has deemed it unnecessary for the child to get tested why would you think it necessary for him to get tested? Loads of people with head colds at the moment. The same as happens this time every year.

Congestion/runny nose etc does not require a test unless accompanied by one of the main symptoms.

amadangomor

stephenjmcd wrote: »

nope, we've all been told as winter comes even if its just a cold you don't go near work until its cleared up.

It'll essentially be socially unacceptable to be out with a cold

Well I can't live on 203 euros a week which I was put on after 2 weeks of Covid payment when I had suspected Covid back in April. Even though the government couldn't test me they limited my payment to 2 weeks.

Can't find it but the HSE were saying sniffles/runny nose were not a reason for kids not to go to school.

bb1234567

bb1234567 wrote: »

What region is he in? I wouldn't call 1050 people in Spain in icu and many thousands more hospitalised currently insignificant

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DSwlkumcRf6w&ved=2ahUKEwjRmd3A2d7rAhUlShUIHaMDAQsQ3e4CMAV6BAgJECA&usg=AOvVaw2CnzsgOiYz4CONJW40s8Vu

drunkmonkey

Oranage2 wrote: »

Wow just wow. I wonder what the it's an outlier camp says about this.

Are people okay with these constant rising numbers?

We've cases rise 200% from just 6 weeks. We've hospitalizations increase 105% percent. We're starting to see deaths again.

And no we don't have 50 people in hospital with broken legs that just happened to have Covid.

I see it's grand if you're not over weight has become the new reasoning for people to behave how they like.

Totally ridiculous at this stage.

What you don't know is how many of those were actually sick and when they were sick, testing will increase positive results that does not mean we have more sick people though. It just means some covid was picked up with a test and may not be active covid.
Really starting to think we should move to a different numbers game altogether as people are seeing one thing and assuming another.

evil_seed

amadangomor wrote: »

Doctor at out of hours service were happy when I took son in Sunday morning. He had a cough and runny nose, maybe sore throat.

I have a runny nose, sore throat and inner ears. I had suspected Covid in April that left me with asthma (Test was cancelled due to lack capacity at that time)

This is totally different and feels like a classic head cold. Covid is more an infection of the lower respiratory tract.

Got the same as yourself. My daughter picked up a cold in creche. I was carrying her and she sneezed in my face. Had a sore throat for 2 days, brutally sore though. My nose and ears are all blocked up. When I blow my nose my ear squeaks :eek::pac:

stephenjmcd

amadangomor wrote: »

Well I can't live on 203 euros a week which I was put on after 2 weeks of Covid payment when I had suspected Covid back in April. Even though the government couldn't test me they limited my payment to 2 weeks.

Can't find it but the HSE were saying sniffles/runny nose were not a reason for kids not to go to school.

Illness benefit if you can't work now with suspected covid is €350 once signed off by a doctor.

I get what your saying but thats the way its going to be this year, sniffles or colds whatever, people just can't go until a test says negative or symptoms have passed.

Yup kids can go to school but advise for adults has always been and continues to be to restrict movements with any symptoms.

My mother had to get a test 2 weeks ago for what ended up being a throat infection. GP said she had to isolate and the rest of us restrict our movements until the test came back negative even though she was 99% sure it wasn't covid

Balmed Out

amadangomor wrote: »

Son - 2YO was diagnosed with a cold at weekend. He caught it in creche.

Typical symptoms of cold. Rang out of hours Doctor and they took him in and happy it was a cold. I've now caught the cold from him.

Have similar symptoms as him without the cough though. Safe for me to go to work?

Same doctor said not to worry, when kids go back to school its common. Sneezing and runny nose not covid symptoms.

DangerScouse

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's nothing to do with being less potent, it's still as deadly but has taken out the low hanging fruit.
Posted it earlier but we'll worth a watch to hear what's happening now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WdzMVekUBU

Yeah you are most likely correct. I'm just trying to be positive about stuff at the minute.

Dublin is a real issue now tbh.

odyssey06

Balmed Out wrote: »

Same doctor said not to worry, when kids go back to school its common. Sneezing and runny nose not covid symptoms.

I really thought this year we wouldn't have the usual back to school sniffles... how is this stuff still so prevalent. What's its reservoir.

Widdensushi

Swab results will be interesting, if they added in some of yesterday's extra to todays no panic, if they didn't but today's number is similar to what will announced its getting worrying, if they have an excess of 70/80 again, time for new restrictions.

JDD

amadangomor wrote: »

Doctor at out of hours service were happy when I took son in Sunday morning. He had a cough and runny nose, maybe sore throat.

I have a runny nose, sore throat and inner ears. I had suspected Covid in April that left me with asthma (Test was cancelled due to lack capacity at that time)

This is totally different and feels like a classic head cold. Covid is more an infection of the lower respiratory tract.

Surely if its safe for a kid to go to school with a runny/blocked nose, it's safe for an adult to go to work? I would say it's safe for you to go to work, but if you're sneezing and coughing your co-workers are going to treat you as a pariah. Your boss might not even appreciate it?

amadangomor

odyssey06 wrote: »

I really thought this year we wouldn't have the usual back to school sniffles... how is this stuff still so prevalent. What's its reservoir.

Good question, was thinking the same myself.

JDD

odyssey06 wrote: »

I really thought this year we wouldn't have the usual back to school sniffles... how is this stuff still so prevalent. What's its reservoir.

I know! Where does it lurk in August that there's always such an explosion of lurgy in the first week of September? I thought that with all the handwashing and mask wearing and lack of commuting it would have cut down on the numbers ready to infect others at the start of September. But no - it seems most kids have the same colds as usual.

It must mean that the common cold is BLOODY CONTAGIOUS. Like, measles-esque contagious.

amadangomor

JDD wrote: »

Surely if its safe for a kid to go to school with a runny/blocked nose, it's safe for an adult to go to work? I would say it's safe for you to go to work, but if you're sneezing and coughing your co-workers are going to treat you as a pariah. Your boss might not even appreciate it?

Was off yesterday as throat was very raw. Came back in today and no advice from management. If I develop a cough which I feel is coming I will ring doctor.

My desk is about 10m away from anyone else and we wear masks here when away from desk.

manofwisdom

Widdensushi wrote: »

Swab results will be interesting, if they added in some of yesterday's extra to todays no panic, if they didn't but today's number is similar to what will announced its getting worrying, if they have an excess of 70/80 again, time for new restrictions.

New restrictions for whom? Plenty of counties have low infection rates.

Funsterdelux

odyssey06 wrote: »

I really thought this year we wouldn't have the usual back to school sniffles... how is this stuff still so prevalent. What's its reservoir.

I thought the same. We've one in preschool and primary.

Only 1/2 days back and they have a slight sniffle and blocked nose(luckily only lasted a day or 2). Hadnt as much as a wet nose since the schools closed. Though we had limited amount of contacts and there were no summer camps/holidays.

Im sure there were plenty who were mixing with cousins and went to camps over the summer. Still though if these cold viruses spread so easily with all the precautions in place, what of sars cov 2?

Anyway its an interesting issue

mandrake04

JDD wrote: »

I know! Where does it lurk in August that there's always such an explosion of lurgy in the first week of September? I thought that with all the handwashing and mask wearing and lack of commuting it would have cut down on the numbers ready to infect others at the start of September. But no - it seems most kids have the same colds as usual.

It must mean that the common cold is BLOODY CONTAGIOUS. Like, measles-esque contagious.

Rhino has an R0 of about 6, where CV19 is thought to be about 5.7

Roots 2020

I wonder in many ways could the present growth of cases have as big an impact as the first wave because of a few factors.

1. The deaths are so few we don't fear, if that's the right word, the virus as much.

2. We were up for the fight in March, all in it together, it was a totally new situation, we were on a kind of war footing. Fatigue has set in naturally with this pest that is over staying it's welcome. You do forget to wash your hands and let your guard down ocassionally. Only human.

3. Could the problem in 2-3 mts time be over crowded hospitals which eventually leads to more deaths indirectly.

4. In March we could take a lockdown for a short time economically. Now people and businesses will be lost on a large scale so people won't take another lockdown. And who has the right to say they are wrong.

To conclude, Ireland is only echoing what's happening around Europe and the world. We'll get through. Just the next few months are very unpredictable.

IK09

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Obesity is more a complex psychological issue than anything, those that find themselves in such situations, actually need psychological guidence, in order to better their situation, we tend not to generally implement this step, but rather somewhat shame those that find themselves obese

People "find themselves obese" ? Get real. Becoming obese is a process as much as getting thin is. No one just wakes up one day and finds themselves obese.

seanb85

JDD wrote: »

Surely if its safe for a kid to go to school with a runny/blocked nose, it's safe for an adult to go to work? I would say it's safe for you to go to work, but if you're sneezing and coughing your co-workers are going to treat you as a pariah. Your boss might not even appreciate it?

In normal times people with a cold should not go work if they risk passing it on to others. This year is no different. If you are ill stay at home.

Wolf359f

Deleted User wrote: »

Your comparing USA with its size, different climates etc. months ago to a small country that had it's initial wave 6 months ago. Compare new York to ireland. That is comparable both regions deaths are on the floor. If we have current Spanish cases and death rates the same as March we would be in trouble. Can't see your logic to be honest. Your not looking at the big picture. Where is your reasoning to all this?

I'm comparing the attitude of some people thinking like the Americans thought after their initial wave, lots of testing and deaths going down. I would compare Europe to America, lots of difference climates and at different stages of the pandemic with different restrictions. I wasn't just singling out Ireland, we're still early in this second wave and can still curb it with minimal restrictions.

We now have the higher cases being announced all across Europe being described as: Casedemic, weakening of the virus, more testing being done, mainly asymptomatic cases and now it's dead virus they are finding.
Some like more testing and picking up asymptomatic people is true, but when ICU's are being filled up in Spain and France and you have people thinking it's going to be different somehow in Ireland?

inthenip

amadangomor wrote: »

Was off yesterday as throat was very raw. Came back in today and no advice from management. If I develop a cough which I feel is coming I will ring doctor.

My desk is about 10m away from anyone else and we wear masks here when away from desk.

Go home to feck and stop been a selfish prick. Is the reason your staying is because you don't get sick pay?

joeguevara

Treepole wrote: »

If a GP has deemed it unnecessary for the child to get tested why would you think it necessary for him to get tested? Loads of people with head colds at the moment. The same as happens this time every year.

Congestion/runny nose etc does not require a test unless accompanied by one of the main symptoms.

You are right. The childs cold is a red herring. Sneezing, runny nose are not usual symptoms of Covid without the temperature.

If you have symptoms of Covid, you isolate until tested.

CalamariFritti

Deleted User wrote: »

Time will tell...

I will do as I'm asked and adhere to all guidelines, but to listen to such negativity at the moment even on rte. For the sake of your mental health it is not worth it. Last week's late late show was the worst I ever witnessed and I would never have given out about it previously.

Nobody 100 per cent truly knows what is going to happen.Our government is being conservative which it should be but that does not mean we are heading into some catasrophie.

Pretty much the same here.

Media have been for the most part a disgrace not just in Ireland. Whether they're doing it for sales or to boost compliance or whatever else their reasoning is they have really failed us. They have done everything in their power to prevent a sober and rational response to the pandemic. They were deliberately trying to freak people out and keep the discourse at hysteric levels in return forcing politicians hands. They're still doing it now.

Non solum non ambulabit

JDD wrote: »

One thing I have been thinking about:

If Covid was circulating in December/January, would that be the equivalent to now? We likely had deaths back then from it, but because ICUs weren't overwhelmed the pattern probably wasn't picked up and the deaths may have been put down as pnuemonia? I don't know how much testing they do post-death?

If the situation in December/January is the equivalent to now, could we be looking at a spike in October, similar to our spike in March? I get the feeling that everyone is expecting this wave to go exactly the same way as the March one, with an exponential increase in deaths after two weeks similar to what happened in March.

Isn't it possible we are in the equivalent of December/January? That is, if you accept that Covid was circulating earlier than March.

I know in Jan, Feb and early march i was getting a packed bus into work each day, busy pubs, going to concerts, cinemas and football matches. That will not be happening coming up to October.