Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

KrustyUCC

Tv3 news no appetite in government for additional measures in Dublin

ACitizenErased

196 new cases

0 deaths

107 in Dublin

Charles Babbage

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Why are we trying to lower the numbers, were not in the same situation as March/April. We know the vast majority aren't even sick. We have higher numbers now but the cases are completely different.
For example we've been told no communions, what reduction in hospital admissions are we hoping to achieve, it's a big ask and deserves a fact based answer, something we can buy into rather than people just thinking it's another crazy rule.
What would be so wrong with telling people if you have been any way unwell in the last few days don't visit other people's houses.

People may not feel unwell, but may be infectious, that is the whole problem and you would think this would be accepted by now.



The people getting confirmed may not end up in hospital, but in every place in the world the cases have spread from younger to older people.


Consider this graphic of Spain

Atlantic Dawn

Why in Rathkeal can you just turn up on the day for a test without the need for an appointment yet everywhere else you do?

ACitizenErased

27 cases over the age of 65 today

CalamariFritti

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I don't know. I'm generally in the 'we overreacted' and 'anti bullsh1t' (of which there is quite a lot) camp, but I wouldnt count my chickens just yet.

While I believe we overreacted in March I think we really had no idea of the total spread then and probably even now we don't.

I think the virus had started earlier and gone much farther than we thought in February and March. I think a lot more people than we ever thought had already been exposed to the virus. Because I'd say the number of people who dont react to it at all or people without symptoms is much bigger than we even think now.
Leading in March to a vast overestimation of severity and fatality rates. Because we only tested people with symptoms and we went with case fatality rates.

But the same circumstances may lead to us underestimating the virus now. Because we're now testing everyone not just symptomatic people we see a truer fatality rate and may get the idea this thing is over, but its quite possible that we simply are now where we were in December/January or even earlier.

I'm not saying this is true and I hope it isn't but I wouldnt rule it out just yet.

Having said that I still don't think that we will see similar to what happened in March and April. Treatment/medication is much better now and we're obviously still having quite a number of restrictions and precautions in place. But I dont think the virus has necessarily weakened or its over.

I think what you're saying is important. I would just like to understand it a bit more.

Do you think that in Dec/January the virus was here but not as strong so that's why we overestimated it's power? We assumed it would be far more severe.
But how can it be both more widespread at that point than we realised and us overreacting?

Why do you think we are underestimating it now? Because of little to no deaths?

I definitely believe we had a hell of a lot more cases in the beginning. Like you say the testing criteria was stricter and I also think tests might not have been performed properly. To quote that dreadful ad "you have to get it up there".

ACitizenErased

Of the cases notified today;

• 103 are men / 91 are women

• 61% are under 45 years of age

• 43% are confirmed to be associated with outbreaks or are close contacts of a confirmed case

• 37 cases have been identified as community transmission

• 107 in Dublin, 12 in Waterford, 11 in Limerick, 8 in Wicklow, 7 in Meath, 7 in Kildare, 6 in Laois, 6 in Westmeath, and the remaining 32 cases are located in Cavan, Clare, Donegal, Galway, Kilkenny, Leitrim, Longford, Louth, Mayo, Monaghan, Offaly, Roscommon, Tipperary and Wexford

JP Liz V1

Widdensushi wrote: »

I can't see too many Chinese tourists in the current climate, I thought there were more than 23 towns.

China have given enough worldwide this year

giveitholly

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Why in Rathkeal can you just turn up on the day for a test without the need for an appointment yet everywhere else you do?

Our cultured friends won't go for a test otherwise

Mantis Toboggan

196 cases today.

JP Liz V1

Irish Aris wrote: »

No Liz, 107 in Dublin as per earlier post.
195 in the whole country.
It would appear around 70 of them are from backlog.

107 still high for Dublin even if backlog

Piehead

Immediate 60 day hard lockdown needed in Dublin.

Santy2015

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Why in Rathkeal can you just turn up on the day for a test without the need for an appointment yet everywhere else you do?

Need to heed to the ethnic minority group

Santy2015

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Why in Rathkeal can you just turn up on the day for a test without the need for an appointment yet everywhere else you do?

We need to head to the ethnic minority group

stephenjmcd

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Tv3 news no appetite in government for additional measures in Dublin

Nope there isn't hence the emphasis on households mixing

stephenjmcd

Hosptial numbers still remaining quite stable throughout this week
https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1304098256058806274?s=19

JP Liz V1

gipi wrote: »

Paul Reid, CEO HSE was on the News at 1 on RTE radio today and said that the numbers showing up for Day 0 testing as contacts has improved from about 50% to about 80%. A bit of good news at least!

Even as a contact if you refuse a free test you should be fined, no one should refuse or not attend for a test

Funsterdelux

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Of the cases notified today;

• 103 are men / 91 are women

• 61% are under 45 years of age

• 43% are confirmed to be associated with outbreaks or are close contacts of a confirmed case

• 37 cases have been identified as community transmission

• 107 in Dublin, 12 in Waterford, 11 in Limerick, 8 in Wicklow, 7 in Meath, 7 in Kildare, 6 in Laois, 6 in Westmeath, and the remaining 32 cases are located in Cavan, Clare, Donegal, Galway, Kilkenny, Leitrim, Longford, Louth, Mayo, Monaghan, Offaly, Roscommon, Tipperary and Wexford

None in Cork?

What Username Guidelines

Deleted User wrote: »

I think what you're saying is important. I would just like to understand it a bit more.

Do you think that in Dec/January the virus was here but not as strong so that's why we overestimated it's power? We assumed it would be far more severe.
But how can it be both more widespread at that point than we realised and us overreacting?

Why do you think we are underestimating it now? Because of little to no deaths?

I definitely believe we had a hell of a lot more cases in the beginning. Like you say the testing criteria was stricter and I also think tests might not have been performed properly. To quote that dreadful ad "you have to get it up there".

I don't have a strong opinion on doom monger vs sugar coater - but every estimation of the power of this virus has come from observational study of known cases, and we know we're not catching every case, or seroprevalence testing, which we know is unreliable both from a testing standpoint and antibody-generation standpoint.

We can absolutely guarantee we didn't catch every case in March. We're catching more now, but are we catching 100% of what we weren't before, or 10% of it?

Given the rate of asymptomatic spread in meat plants recently, we can assume asymptomatic spread is happening in lots of other places. Who knows if we're now catching far more cases, or whether our ~1% positivity rate is in fact the 1% expected false positives. Maybe a mix of both.

I just find it difficult to settle heavily on a conclusion and then behave accordingly. Tbh, as difficult as it is, it's probably best to stick to PH guidelines as much as possible. But until when?

Spleodar

I wonder if housing pressures in Dublin have a lot to do with this. If you consider the numbers of people who are in inappropriate accommodation i.e. house shares, flat shares, over-crowded accommodation etc etc.

If you compare the numbers occurring in Dublin and Cork for example, you'd expect some kind of correlation to the populations. Cork City's smaller, but the number of cases is much, much lower and it's not really just following population or behaviour lines.

The only thing I can see that's hugely different is probably a significantly higher % of bad housing.

ACitizenErased

Funsterdelux wrote: »

None in Cork?

None in Cork yes

JP Liz V1

Funsterdelux wrote: »

None in Cork?

We doing well, up the rebels

Leftwaffe

Six in Laois out of nowhere

Mantis Toboggan

Decision for lockdown in Dublin to be made on Tuesday apparently.

Mantis Toboggan

Decision for lockdown in Dublin to be made on Tuesday apparently.

Mantis Toboggan

Decision for lockdown in Dublin to be made on Tuesday apparently.

KrustyUCC

Funsterdelux wrote: »

None in Cork?

Yes thankfully

Cork cases per day have been quite low but usually few cases per day.

Great to see a 0

JP Liz V1

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Why in Rathkeal can you just turn up on the day for a test without the need for an appointment yet everywhere else you do?

Idiots refusing tests, surely their 2020 jeeps could take them to Limerick city for a test

Is there many cases in Rathkeale?

KrustyUCC

Funsterdelux wrote: »

None in Cork?

Yes thankfully

Cork cases per day have been quite low but usually few cases per day.

Great to see a 0

shinzon

Has boards gone tits up again lot of double posts anyways bit of a double standard if those Dublin cases were anywhere else localised lockdown. In Dublin its seems to be Meh what can ye do

Shin