ICU Figures

schmoo2k

Deleted User wrote: »

Still seems odd first known case also died of it aged 42 and hundreds now that age don't even know they are sick until tested. This guy was a working man, not an infirm person in a nursing home where disease and infection are commonplace due to their vulnerabilities.

That is not odd at all - the first identified case was always going to be someone very sick - otherwise they wouldn't have gone to hospital. IOW good chance there was plenty of other folks with it, simply carrying on.

schmoo2k

schmoo2k wrote: »

That is not odd at all - the first identified case was always going to be someone very sick - otherwise they wouldn't have gone to hospital. IOW good chance there was plenty of other folks with it, simply carrying on.

Of course it is they were 42 and died. Nobody has died in his age category in about 4 months despite thousands of cases in that time. CMO said it did not arrive before February.

schmoo2k

Deleted User wrote: »

Of course it is they were 42 and died. Nobody has died in his age category in about 4 months despite thousands of cases in that time. CMO said it did not arrive before February.

Back in Feb / March lots died in that category (and in recent times our treatment has greatly improved).

Good chance a few vulnerable / elderly folks also died from it at the same time, but probably just chalked off as natural death... But a young healthy person getting very ill will require extra examination.

rahmalec

The answer is pretty simple. It’s a combination of all the following:

- more young people getting it

- better treatments

- the main thing though is back in March and early April we were missing most cases. I recon back at the end of March when the lockdown was imposed we could have had 10000 being infected a day. In Italy and Spain they likely have had a few million cases.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-getting-less-angry-shouldnt-22563045.amp&ved=2ahUKEwjBoMaY87brAhXBnVwKHco0BH0QFjAFegQIBBAB&usg=AOvVaw33u-t_wcL5lPDDhceVVvDw&ampcf=1

Covid 19 less angry now says icu doctor birmingham

ShineOn7

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-getting-less-angry-shouldnt-22563045.amp&ved=2ahUKEwjBoMaY87brAhXBnVwKHco0BH0QFjAFegQIBBAB&usg=AOvVaw33u-t_wcL5lPDDhceVVvDw&ampcf=1

Covid 19 less angry now says icu doctor birmingham

This stands out

Dr Daniels said he believed the coronavirus and its associated disease, Covid-19 could be weakening.

He said: "There is a degree of suggestion and some evidence the virus might just be getting a little bit less angry.

"That would be the natural behaviour of viruses. Coronaviruses that now cause the common cold were probably quite good at causing death several thousand years ago.
"But they’re not any longer and this is the natural behaviour of viruses.
"It confers no evolutionary advantage to a virus to kill its host and it confers every evolutionary advantage to sit in the host, not make them very ill but make them walk around infecting lots of other people."

He said intensive care outcomes had improved from a 50:50 chance of dying if a patient was put on a ventilator to a mortality rate of 20 per cent in some cases.

That was not down to the drug discoveries like Dexamethasone and Remdesivir, he said, but better management of cases.
He said: "What’s caused that improvement? Is it all the drugs – definitely not. The drugs have a little bit of an effect, not such a marked effect.

"Is it because we have got better learning about how to manage the condition in general? Yes absolutely.
"The tabloid press love wonder magic bullets and drugs but we have just got better at decision making. We’ve learned better who needs ventilating at what time and when they need to be put prone and so forth."

gozunda

Think this answers some of the changes we've have seen with infection rates and those currently being infected

https://www.irishpost.com/news/only-a-matter-of-time-before-covid-19-spreads-to-vulnerable-groups-in-ireland-says-dr-ronan-glynn-191521

What Username Guidelines

ShineOn7 wrote: »

This stands out

What's interesting there is that there are less people going to ICU and a better outcome for those that do go to ICU. Like a doubling benefit.

The thing I don't get is, and maybe it's not for this thread, but when can this be declared over? Everyone has become so obsessed with multiple daily updates (testing numbers, cases, deaths, hospital numbers), myself included.. If we don't see significant spikes then at what point is it declared 'safe'? We don't publish daily cancer deaths (I know, not contagious) or Flu Deaths (I know, worse than flu) but if we did and gave them the same attention, we wouldn't leave the house. It's unlikely to ever be zero, and public health/politicians seem to react without considering under-testing in March vs catching more cases now.

It seems like we've wound the place up into a really tight knot that's gonna be difficult to unravel.

ShineOn7

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

when can this be declared over?

I don't think there'll be one magical day we'll wake up and say "it's over"

It'll be more a case of "the chances of getting it now are minuscule"

speckle

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I don't think there'll be one magical day we'll wake up and say "it's over"

It'll be more a case of "the chances of getting it now are minuscule"

But one day we will wake up and realize the worst is 'over' day is behind us like we did with TB.

speckle

Deleted User wrote: »

First person to get infected in Ireland was a farmer in Cork in his early 40s with no known underlying health conditions.

He presented in a Cork hospital in February with symptoms and was dead a few weeks later. It was several months later before it was discovered he had covid 19. How was it a relatively young healthy man was the first known person to get it and died also. Many people in his age group category are not even having symptoms now. Only 3 cases out of 80 had symptoms in the meat factory in Kildare. Health professionals are not going to tell us its weakening but it does seem odd the first person to get it in Ireland died and was relatively young and healthy by all accounts.

Is that the first community case you are talking about in CUH or the retrospective lookback?

speckle

speckle wrote: »

Is that the first community case you are talking about in CUH or the retrospective lookback?

Both i think. It was community transmission as he had not travelled abroad and it was only maybe in June they realised he had it. He died i think in early march. He was from Cork.

I tell a lie he was 43 not 42

Here is article:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0614/1147301-coronavirus-ireland/

schmoo2k

schmoo2k wrote: »

Back in Feb / March lots died in that category (and in recent times our treatment has greatly improved).

Good chance a few vulnerable / elderly folks also died from it at the same time, but probably just chalked off as natural death... But a young healthy person getting very ill will require extra examination.

I would'nt say lots. 13 out 4000 odd positive tests.

speckle

http://imj.ie/the-presentation-diagnosis-of-the-first-known-community-transmitted-case-of-sars-cov-2-in-the-republic-of-ireland/

yes we must be on the same page

ShineOn7

So we are now about 6 months into this and by all accounts treatments or methods have improved

If this trend can exponentially grow then I think we'll be in a very good position in another 6 months

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

The illness is nowhere near as bad as was predicted back in Jan. The models and the experts were predicting doomsday more or less. I remember people talking about deaths in ireland and mentioning figures like 30000 - 100000 dead.

I think we can all see by now that thats not the case. The illness is mainly dangerous to the nursing home community and elderly people in poor health.

Some people will try to act like lockdown prevented all of those deaths. It didn't. Countries that didn't lockdown at all didn't have body bags piling up in the streets. Perhaps we'd have a few more deaths without lockdown. But we would have been better balanced in lots of other areas.

Our over reaction looks outrageous in hindsight.

We could let this illness rip through the population and death rate will be extremely low.

The reaction was not outrageous. Covid-19 had (and still has) the potential to collapse the health service.

There was a palpable fear that it could collapse the HSE in March. I was working 80 hour weeks writing guidelines/ covering for staff absenses due to close contact/confirmed case. I had 4 colleagues who ended up in ICU due to COVID-19. One of them was under the age of 35.

The lockdown was the right thing to do at the time. Take the US for example. Roughly 550 deaths/100k vs Ireland 350 deaths/100k.

The lockdown was the right thing to do and anybody who can't see that needs to have a look again at the facts.

ShineOn7

Deleted User wrote: »

I had 4 colleagues who ended up in ICU due to COVID-19. One of them was under the age of 35.

Jesus @ that last bit in particular, especially if they had no underlying symptoms

Hope they all made it

ICU numbers down to 4 as of 8pm 25/08.

It was at 4 end of July and it was early March since this low.

ShineOn7

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Jesus @ that last bit in particular, especially if they had no underlying symptoms

Hope they all made it

3 of the 4 had relatively short ICU stays, less than a week. One was in ICU for six weeks. Probably won't ever be able to work again. Person was below the age of 50.

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

The reaction was not outrageous. Covid-19 had (and still has) the potential to collapse the health service.

Nothing only rubbish to back this up, without referencing a rather unique part of northern Italy, nothing like Ireland anyway whatsoever

i_surge

I have been monitoring it and USA ICU figures have been hovering around 17,000 and not dropping since about April.

Just to give you something to think about folks.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

3 of the 4 had relatively short ICU stays, less than a week. One was in ICU for six weeks. Probably won't ever be able to work again. Person was below the age of 50.

All survived though. That's the important point.

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Nothing only rubbish to back this up, without referencing a rather unique part of northern Italy, nothing like Ireland anyway whatsoever

You mean the unique part of Italy that is the most well off, well developed health care system in Italy?

i_surge

i_surge wrote: »

I have been monitoring it and USA ICU figures have been hovering around 17,000 and not dropping since about April.

Just to give you something to think about folks.

Not important unless you live there. I don't, enough going on here. We have 4 to give us something to think about and one in NI. 5 on the island of Ireland of 7 million people.

i_surge

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not important unless you live there. I don't, enough going on here. We have 4 to give us something to think about and one in NI. 5 on the island of Ireland of 7 million people.

Hugely important as it points to the difficulty in reducing it with a very mixed bag of lockdown lite policies and puts a huge question mark over how to reopen effectively.

Also points to the non triviality of it all, as I'm sure half this thread is aiming to argue.

lee_baby_simms

i_surge wrote: »

I have been monitoring it and USA ICU figures have been hovering around 17,000 and not dropping since about April.

Just to give you something to think about folks.

Misleading as the USA is so big that you have to look at regions rather than the country as a whole. Different regions are at different stages of community spread. Different climates too.

Our reaction to this includes everything we have done up to now, not just the opening few weeks.
I think we can all agree that lockdown was the right thing to do to buy some time. We needed to get our testing and tracing up to speed.
More importantly, we needed to get the 235 clusters in the nursing homes under control.

From May though, we should have started reopening the country and actually followed through.
Almost All restrictions should have been ditched by end of June. The only thing that should remain is hand washing and distancing.

As clusters pop up, we need to analyze them and decide what actions work best.
Take meat factories for example. We need to put some kind of actions in place to help prevent outbreaks. Locking down 3 entire counties is not the solution.

To have 4 people in ICU and still huge parts of the country closed is an absolute disgrace.

Sweet.Science

4 people . That's really great . Why the constant negativity and hysteria . Lets get back to normal

circadian

Ah this is the ICU numbers thread, I thought I was reading the dunces Corner thread.

MadYaker

The HSE release daily operations uodates every day here https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/

Each one is about a 16 page document. If you scroll half way down the page and click on "Coronavirus daily operations updates" you get a drop down menu with links to pdfs. Lots of detailed info, pity it's so buried.