The wondrous adventures of Sinn Fein (part 2)

jm08

jh79 wrote: »

I don't think it's FF/FG you have to worry about more so the general apathy to an UI in the Republic.

Really? Have you anything to back up that assertion?



Majority of people in the Republic want Irish unity referendum within five years

https://www.thejournal.ie/united-ireland-border-poll-results-4896963-Nov2019/

And exit poll at last general election

Do you think there should be referendums north and south in the next five years on Irish unity, or not?

A total of 57% said yes; 40% said no; 3% had no response.

https://www.thejournal.ie/ge2020-border-poll-4999083-Feb2020/

McMurphy

jh79 wrote: »

I don't think it's FF/FG you have to worry about more so the general apathy to an UI in the Republic.

What party do you envisage campaigning for a no vote when (not if) the referendum does get underway?

James Brown

jh79 wrote: »

I don't think it's FF/FG you have to worry about more so the general apathy to an UI in the Republic.

I'm not worried.
The I'm alright jack Irish Tory element who pine for the empire days when the unwashed knew their station, might have some say but thankfully always underestimate public feeling in their arrogance.

As discussed, what politician is willing to stand against a UI? It would be political suicide. I can see in some cases why they allow societal crises break records year on year to fill crony pockets because why else be in government.
The thing is there's lots of money to be made in a UI. Think of all the greasy back room deals with committees for this and that.

jh79

McMurphy wrote: »

What party do you envisage campaigning for a no vote when (not if) the referendum does get underway?

I reckon it's still an "if" in my lifetime. The SofS has final say and won't give the go ahead without support from the Republic. No point having a border poll if the Republic isn't in a postion to pay for it.

But to answer your question, none will campaign against it but they will differ on the logistics and the associated costs and the cost will spook voters in the Republic.

jm08

jh79 wrote: »

I reckon it's still an "if" in my lifetime. The SofS has final say and won't give the go ahead without support from the Republic. No point having a border poll if the Republic isn't in a postion to pay for it.

But to answer your question, none will campaign against it but they will differ on the logistics and the associated costs and the cost will spook voters in the Republic.

You will have a low of work to do to turn this around. From Exit Poll at last Gen. Election:

• 18 – 24: 75% said yes
• 25 – 34: 60% said yes
• 35 – 49: 62% said yes
• 50 – 64: 54% said yes
• 65+: 47% said yes

https://www.thejournal.ie/ge2020-border-poll-4999083-Feb2020/


Worth noting that only 40% of Fine Gael voters supported a referendum within the next 5 years.

RandomViewer

Bowie wrote: »

I'm not worried.
The I'm alright jack Irish Tory element who pine for the empire days when the unwashed knew their station, might have some say but thankfully always underestimate public feeling in their arrogance.

As discussed, what politician is willing to stand against a UI? It would be political suicide. I can see in some cases why they allow societal crises break records year on year to fill crony pockets because why else be in government.
The thing is there's lots of money to be made in a UI. Think of all the greasy back room deals with committees for this and that.

Can see quite a few FGers objecting to a UI, Bruton, Flanagan, most of the Stepford Fishwives , Heather and kneel Richmond

jh79

jm08 wrote: »

You will have a low of work to do to turn this around. From Exit Poll at last Gen. Election:

• 18 – 24: 75% said yes
• 25 – 34: 60% said yes
• 35 – 49: 62% said yes
• 50 – 64: 54% said yes
• 65+: 47% said yes

https://www.thejournal.ie/ge2020-border-poll-4999083-Feb2020/


Worth noting that only 40% of Fine Gael voters supported a referendum within the next 5 years.

That poll only asked about a border poll. The one where people were asked if they would vote yes shiwed only 30 something % if it had an associated costs.

a very cool kid

If the question was fancy increasing your taxes by a fifth for at least 10 years after having a border poll in 5 years I wonder how people would answer.

The Irish government will run a 19bn deficit this year - a record since the economic crash, the scary thing is that that's roughly the current cost of Northern Ireland to it's parent government for 18 months....(and that's before you bring NI social welfare up to ROI levels etc).

Brendan Bendar

a very cool kid wrote: »

If the question was fancy increasing your taxes by a fifth for at least 10 years after having a border poll in 5 years I wonder how people would answer.

The Irish government will run a 19bn deficit this year - a record since the economic crash, the scary thing is that that's roughly the current cost of Northern Ireland to it's parent government for 18 months....(and that's before you bring NI social welfare up to ROI levels etc).

Taxes......?

What taxes....?

a very cool kid

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Taxes......?

What taxes....?

A fifth on personal taxes is probably an underestimate as there are some taxes that are elastic (where if you increase the rate you don't get proportionate extra revenue).

The EU won't pay a current account deficit (if anything as we'd be breaking the stability and growth pact, they would take an extremely dim view) and I'd imagine Boris will say the Provisional IRA can "go whistle"

FrancieBrady

a very cool kid wrote: »

A fifth on personal taxes is probably an underestimate as there are some taxes that are elastic (where if you increase the rate you don't get proportionate extra revenue).

The EU won't pay a current account deficit (if anything as we'd be breaking the stability and growth pact, they would take an extremely dim view) and I'd imagine Boris will say the Provisional IRA can "go whistle"

See anything else in the auld crystal ball?

James Brown

a very cool kid wrote: »

If the question was fancy increasing your taxes by a fifth for at least 10 years after having a border poll in 5 years I wonder how people would answer.

The Irish government will run a 19bn deficit this year - a record since the economic crash, the scary thing is that that's roughly the current cost of Northern Ireland to it's parent government for 18 months....(and that's before you bring NI social welfare up to ROI levels etc).

The cost is an estimate or guess.
Either way let's look at the crash. The average punter suffered and those who gambled and lost are back making millions. The average punter trudges along paying the bills.
So how about asking people, would you be willing to go through the same again, but for a UI, taking into account that you will be going through it again anyway?

a very cool kid

FrancieBrady wrote: »

See anything else in the auld crystal ball?

The UK subvention is just under 11bn sterling annually (just to keep ticking along). So that's what at present NI costs to it's parent government.

If you're serious about something (especially something so intangible) you have to take worst case scenario. Assuming someone else will foot the bill doesn't cover it when dealing with people's lives.

FrancieBrady

a very cool kid wrote: »

The UK subvention is just under 11bn sterling annually (just to keep ticking along). So that's what at present NI costs to it's parent government.

If you're serious about something (especially something so intangible) you have to take worst case scenario. Assuming someone else will foot the bill doesn't cover it when dealing with people's lives.

No it isn't 11bn. We've been over this numerous times. Inform yourself of the issues...getting to be a tiresome 'scaredy figure' now.

a very cool kid

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No it isn't 11bn. We've been over this numerous times. Inform yourself of the issues...getting to be a tiresome 'scaredy figure' now.

How much is it so....

It's stated in lots of media as being around 11bn at the moment. ESRI had it at over 9bn in 2014 so 11bn in 2020 is believable .

ESRI also said a quarter of it was down to UK only stuff like debt servicing and security/military costs. It's hard to see the UK letting NI away without any share of the national debt or our security costs increasing around Unionist dissidents etc..

FrancieBrady

a very cool kid wrote: »

How much is it so....

We won't know until the British lay it out, but there are many subtractions.

James Brown

I see 70% of French people are Shinners...or hesitant about the vaccination. The lads will be on to call the French 'not normal'.

a very cool kid

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We won't know until the British lay it out, but there are many subtractions.

Sorry my post got cut off above I attached the ESRI report - about a quarter of the subvention is negotiable but. .. you'd imagine most of it would be gobbled up by similar costs on our side.

Finty Lemon

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We won't know until the British lay it out, but there are many subtractions.

Net fiscal balance per capita for NI is about £4950, or €10.4bn in total. It is subsidised by the London and South East England economy, as indeed are other peripheral regions of the United Kingdom.
Govt spending per capita in NI is the highest for the UK regions. The London Economy alone is twice the size of ROI, enabling such generous treatment

FrancieBrady

a very cool kid wrote: »

Sorry my post got cut off above I attached the ESRI report - about a quarter of the subvention is negotiable but. .. you'd imagine most of it would be gobbled up by similar costs on our side.

Finty Lemon wrote: »

Net fiscal balance per capita for NI is about £4950, or €10.4bn in total. It is subsidised by the London and South East England economy, as indeed are other peripheral regions of the United Kingdom.
Govt spending per capita in NI is the highest for the UK regions. The London Economy alone is twice the size of ROI, enabling such generous treatment

Nobody is proposing the handover will happen overnight. NI will have to be got ready for a UI (as will here).

I look forward to the discussion around that by all the stakeholders. Revamps of the HSE for example...what better oppurtunity could we get to fix that monster etc etc. Bascically a chance to put right the massive failures of the power swap.
Tantilising for all.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No it isn't 11bn. We've been over this numerous times. Inform yourself of the issues...getting to be a tiresome 'scaredy figure' now.

Yes, indeed, we have been over it numerous times. The costs of unification would be far far more than the 11bn subvention. Bringing tax rates, social welfare rates and public service pay into line will either cost the taxpayer tens of billions or the public servants and social welfare recipients will suffer.

The mismatch between the two systems means somebody will lose, and lose badly.

a very cool kid

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Nobody is proposing the handover will happen overnight. NI will have to be got ready for a UI (as will here).

I look forward to the discussion around that by all the stakeholders. Revamps of the HSE for example...what better oppurtunity could we get to fix that monster etc etc. Bascically a chance to put right the massive failures of the power swap.
Tantilising for all.

Nothing can happen until the lot of NI is improved, the only way that's going to happen is if the people and government are willing to pull their socks up!

blanch152

Bowie wrote: »

I see 70% of French people are Shinners...or hesitant about the vaccination. The lads will be on to call the French 'not normal'.

Say what? Your post doesn't make any sense at all.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes, indeed, we have been over it numerous times. The costs of unification would be far far more than the 11bn subvention. Bringing tax rates, social welfare rates and public service pay into line will either cost the taxpayer tens of billions or the public servants and social welfare recipients will suffer.

The mismatch between the two systems means somebody will lose, and lose badly.

That was your contribution.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That was your contribution.

Yes, backed up by facts and links and never refuted.

You can keep posting all you like that it costs less than 11bn, but you never addressed a single issue raised at the time that put the cost north of 20bn.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes, backed up by facts and links and never refuted.

You can keep posting all you like that it costs less than 11bn, but you never addressed a single issue raised at the time that put the cost north of 20bn.

Because I am not wasting my time discussing it with a hardline partitionist...why would I? You get your eggs in a row and find somebody to represent you politically when the time comes.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Because I am not wasting my time discussing it with a hardline partitionist...why would I? You get your eggs in a row and find somebody to represent you politically when the time comes.

So you still have no answers as to where we will find the money to harmonise social welfare, taxation and public service pay without someone footing the bill.

As I thought, away with you to the unicorns and rainbows to get the tax to pay for it.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

So you still have no answers as to where we will find the money to harmonise social welfare, taxation and public service pay without someone footing the bill.

As I thought, away with you to the unicorns and rainbows to get the tax to pay for it.

If I open a thread or make a post on it, you can argue away. Until then....

a very cool kid

a very cool kid wrote: »

Nothing can happen until the lot of NI is improved, the only way that's going to happen is if the people and government are willing to pull their socks up!

It will be interesting to see if Brexit makes NI more or less economically viable. In theory it could be the best of both worlds, but knowing SF and the DUP they'll conspire to make it the worst.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

It will be interesting to see if Brexit makes NI more or less economically viable. In theory it could be the best of both worlds, but knowing SF and the DUP they'll conspire to make it the worst.

Feck sake...did 'Brexit' not show you, plain as day, that the parties in the North have no say when it comes to their future in reality. Only we had the power to follow through(once Enda's FG were convinced) on what SF advocated from the start - 'special status' - then they's be in a much worse place.