The wondrous adventures of Sinn Fein (part 2)

James Brown

a very cool kid wrote: »

Re the transition - any longer than a year of paying different rates etc is discrimination. Once it's possible to do so logistically they need to married up. A year won't be enough time to fix the subvention.

Re the crash , you can't say that just because we screwed up the cash before we should definitely screw up again.

Half the people you want to undo the wrong on are happy enough as they are, do they get a say? Are we effectively paying for a romantic notion here? What will these wronged people have in a UI they don't have already (beyond more taxes)

That's grand and all. I said we should have a transition period. You responded claiming it was discrimination. Silly comment.

Nope. We were talking on cost and what we would get out of it. We would get a united Ireland and we don't know the cost.

Nope. Never spoke on forcing anyone. There'll be a vote. This time the public will have a say.

blanch152

a very cool kid wrote: »

See that's grand but in Unification we're straight away into a big current account deficit without either cuts in social welfare payments or increased VAT or income taxes. So you're borrowing to pay the bills, not build an extension or put yourself through college etc

This is the bit that nobody seems to get. Someone has to lose out if social welfare rates, income tax rates or public service pay rates are different. If social welfare rates and public service pay rates are increased in the area where they are lower, there has to be an increase in taxes on those earning and they lose out.

If public service pay and social welfare are cut in the areas where they are higher, public servants and those on social welfare lose out. Either way, there is a bill, and somebody pays.

Unless Sinn Fein and their supporters wake up to this, there is no hope. For a start, they need to work towards harmonisation in advance. Pushing for water charges in the South to match those in the North would be one idea. Looking at replacing LPT with the domestic charges in the North or vice versa would be another. Pushing for harmonisation of social welfare would be another policy they could promote. If the lads on here were arguing for things like that instead of pushing the idea of magic money trees, "investment" and taxing rainbows and unicorns, there might be some credibility to their arguments.

James Brown

blanch152 wrote: »

This is the bit that nobody seems to get. Someone has to lose out if social welfare rates, income tax rates or public service pay rates are different. If social welfare rates and public service pay rates are increased in the area where they are lower, there has to be an increase in taxes on those earning and they lose out.

If public service pay and social welfare are cut in the areas where they are higher, public servants and those on social welfare lose out. Either way, there is a bill, and somebody pays.

Unless Sinn Fein and their supporters wake up to this, there is no hope. For a start, they need to work towards harmonisation in advance. Pushing for water charges in the South to match those in the North would be one idea. Looking at replacing LPT with the domestic charges in the North or vice versa would be another. Pushing for harmonisation of social welfare would be another policy they could promote. If the lads on here were arguing for things like that instead of pushing the idea of magic money trees, "investment" and taxing rainbows and unicorns, there might be some credibility to their arguments.

Like a transition period?

blanch152 wrote: »

People will be discriminated against for the length of the transition period as you have just admitted.

...

What you missed or intentionally left out is welfare rates are amended and set based on cost of living etc.. This will continue. Welfare rates and other allowances will be amended as they are in every budget.

Water charges? Is the worry some DUP crony might get the sweet deal?

grayzer75

There's no water charges in the north, just rates bills which cover bins, etc.

blanch152

Bowie wrote: »

Like a transition period?

Nope, not like a transition period. Start right now, and publish policies towards harmonisation, show a serious attitude to unity. Right now, there is a complete lack of credibility to arguments for unity from Sinn Fein and their social media supporters, because they are not prepared to work the hard road towards it.

Bowie wrote: »

What you missed or intentionally left out is welfare rates are amended and set based on cost of living etc.. This will continue. Welfare rates and other allowances will be amended as they are in every budget.

Water charges? Is the worry some DUP crony might get the sweet deal?

Welfare rates North and South are out of sync, water charges and domestic charges the same. While some things have to be left to Westminister (income tax), SF, if they had any balls, would be putting forward a policy North and South to move the things that can be controlled closer together.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Nope, not like a transition period. Start right now, and publish policies towards harmonisation, show a serious attitude to unity. Right now, there is a complete lack of credibility to arguments for unity from Sinn Fein and their social media supporters, because they are not prepared to work the hard road towards it.

And yet so many analysis you read say that the two economies are integrating and harmonising more and more...so much so that a UI is inevitable.
An agreed transition period will fix and modify a lot of the problem areas. Closer integration will display the potential.

padd b1975

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Oh you really acquitted those responsible for our national debt there.

Not my intention to acquit anyone Francis, quite the opposite in fact.

FrancieBrady

padd b1975 wrote: »

Not my intention to acquit anyone Francis, quite the opposite in fact.

Not sure what your intention was. The point was FG and FF (the power swap) have led the boom and bust economy here. One person, who may or may not have even been a member of SF doesn't excuse/acquit them of that charge.

James Brown

blanch152 wrote: »

Nope, not like a transition period. Start right now, and publish policies towards harmonisation, show a serious attitude to unity. Right now, there is a complete lack of credibility to arguments for unity from Sinn Fein and their social media supporters, because they are not prepared to work the hard road towards it.





Welfare rates North and South are out of sync, water charges and domestic charges the same. While some things have to be left to Westminister (income tax), SF, if they had any balls, would be putting forward a policy North and South to move the things that can be controlled closer together.

So no transition period. I disagree. Even when doing a currency change over we have a transition period. It allows people time to climatise.

Hard road? Some gave their lives Blanch. All the nay sayers are doing is citing personal financial cost.

I can't claim to know the details of SF, as I don't speak for them. You do know Coveney and Kenny are not Shinners? One of the big barriers we have to having open discussion is FF/FG don't want to give any legitimacy to SF they don't have to. Like yourself they are equating discussing a united Ireland with helping SF IMO. SF don't own a united Ireland. They are a political party openly in favour of a UI. That's it really.

Welfare rates could be put in sync. When a new government comes in at any time they amend welfare rates.

If FF/FG and the like were genuine they would put it on the agenda for government not get all teary eyed as they near retirement.

jm08

a very cool kid wrote: »

See that's grand but in Unification we're straight away into a big current account deficit without either cuts in social welfare payments or increased VAT or income taxes. So you're borrowing to pay the bills, not build an extension or put yourself through college etc

Are we? Straight away we're actually into attracting FDI in. For example, Boeing sells a lot of their stuff to RyanAir (one of their biggest customers). How about incentivising them developing a manufacturing plant in NI in the country which has one of its biggest customers? Then there is all the pharma companies who could open up plants in NI to compliment their existing plants here already?



I'd like a break down from you as to what the deficit would actually be and an explaination as to how new FDI wouldn't have us back in credit within 5/6 years?

FrancieBrady

jm08 wrote: »

Are we? Straight away we're actually into attracting FDI in. For example, Boeing sells a lot of their stuff to RyanAir (one of their biggest customers). How about incentivising them developing a manufacturing plant in NI in the country which has one of its biggest customers? Then there is all the pharma companies who could open up plants in NI to compliment their existing plants here already?



I'd like a break down from you as to what the deficit would actually be and an explaination as to how new FDI wouldn't have us back in credit within 5/6 years?

I'd expect a lot of commitments lined up and being made in the lead up to a poll. Especially if Biden is in the White House.
It's in everybody's interests that it is a success (except belligerent Unionists and bitter partitionists) The EU, Us, Britain, The US and pro-UI nationaists and moderate Unionists, prepared to give it a go as democrats.

a very cool kid

jm08 wrote: »

Are we? Straight away we're actually into attracting FDI in. For example, Boeing sells a lot of their stuff to RyanAir (one of their biggest customers). How about incentivising them developing a manufacturing plant in NI in the country which has one of its biggest customers? Then there is all the pharma companies who could open up plants in NI to compliment their existing plants here already?



I'd like a break down from you as to what the deficit would actually be and an explaination as to how new FDI wouldn't have us back in credit within 5/6 years?

I actually broke it down earlier on the thread but off the top of my head:

ROI Govt Income is 60 BN roughly (expenditure roughly the same level).

NI Govt Deficit is 12 BN roughly

That's before you harmonise payments between jurisdictions. Politically it's unrealistic to say you're cutting, for example pensions in ROI to NI rates so NI pensions etc will increase - increasing this 12 BN deficit.

As with any major investment you have to take into account worse case scenario, how would you close this gap as things stand?

You can't rely on an economic miracle in NI, beyond the name over the door what will have changed there to attract all this FDI?

Groundwork for large scale FDI in ROI started about 20 years before we saw any real effect to the public finances. What do you do if you have another global crash in the meantime?


As another poster said above if we're serious about a UI we need to exert soft power - i.e. Integrate the region as seamlessly as possible as things stand. Maybe then when it is in practice one nation on one land we really have a chance at a UI.

blanch152

Bowie wrote: »

So no transition period. I disagree. Even when doing a currency change over we have a transition period. It allows people time to climatise.

Hard road? Some gave their lives Blanch. All the nay sayers are doing is citing personal financial cost.

I can't claim to know the details of SF, as I don't speak for them. You do know Coveney and Kenny are not Shinners? One of the big barriers we have to having open discussion is FF/FG don't want to give any legitimacy to SF they don't have to. Like yourself they are equating discussing a united Ireland with helping SF IMO. SF don't own a united Ireland. They are a political party openly in favour of a UI. That's it really.

Welfare rates could be put in sync. When a new government comes in at any time they amend welfare rates.

If FF/FG and the like were genuine they would put it on the agenda for government not get all teary eyed as they near retirement.

Nobody asked anyone to give their life for a united Ireland, and neither should they have. Nobody asked anyone to take a life for a united Ireland, but some thugs did.

jm08

blanch152 wrote: »

Nope, not like a transition period. Start right now, and publish policies towards harmonisation, show a serious attitude to unity. Right now, there is a complete lack of credibility to arguments for unity from Sinn Fein and their social media supporters, because they are not prepared to work the hard road towards it.

You must not have got the memo from HQ Blanch!
Colin Harvey

@cjhumanrights


‘Private polling carried out by Fine Gael and Sinn Féin before Christmas show it ranking now as the second or third most important issue.’

blanch152

a very cool kid wrote: »

I actually broke it down earlier on the thread but off the top of my head:

ROI Govt Income is 60 BN roughly (expenditure roughly the same level).

NI Govt Deficit is 12 BN roughly

That's before you harmonise payments between jurisdictions. Politically it's unrealistic to say you're cutting, for example pensions in ROI to NI rates so NI pensions etc will increase - increasing this 12 BN deficit.

As with any major investment you have to take into account worse case scenario, how would you close this gap as things stand?

You can't rely on an economic miracle in NI, beyond the name over the door what will have changed there to attract all this FDI?

Groundwork for large scale FDI in ROI started about 20 years before we saw any real effect to the public finances. What do you do if you have another global crash in the meantime?


As another poster said above if we're serious about a UI we need to exert soft power - i.e. Integrate the region as seamlessly as possible as things stand. Maybe then when it is in practice one nation on one land we really have a chance at a UI.

Very well said.

If you are a political party that is serious about a united Ireland, you start the groundwork now, you identify elements that can be harmonised before unification and start putting the pieces in place. Waiting until there is a referendum before knowing what the shape of the future is makes you as bad as a Brexiteer. To date, SF have shown about as much knowledge of the future as the most rabid Brexiteer.

blanch152

jm08 wrote: »

You must not have got the memo from HQ Blanch!
Colin Harvey

@cjhumanrights


‘Private polling carried out by Fine Gael and Sinn Féin before Christmas show it ranking now as the second or third most important issue.’

Had a good laugh at that letter. Asking the question as to what logic the SoS has used not to call a referendum, I would assume the response would be something along the lines of "apart from the bleeding obvious, what else do you need?"

FrancieBrady

a very cool kid wrote: »

I actually broke it down earlier on the thread but off the top of my head:

ROI Govt Income is 60 BN roughly (expenditure roughly the same level).

NI Govt Deficit is 12 BN roughly

What a ridiculous way to calculate. Seriously, can you not see the major flaw/boo boo you have made?

The 12 billion is a 'transfer'. Contained within it is the revenue NI actually creates and also the unknown amount of contributions to security, UK debt, Royal Family etc etc. That revenue it 'creates' will be available to the new state MINUS all the other contributions to the UK exchequer.

Assuming that NI won't be contributing some of what it costs and is a black hole we will be firing 12 billion into, is just an extraordinary mistake to make.

Remind not to go to you for accountancy advice.

jm08

a very cool kid wrote: »

I actually broke it down earlier on the thread but off the top of my head:

ROI Govt Income is 60 BN roughly (expenditure roughly the same level).

NI Govt Deficit is 12 BN roughly

Thats not a breakdown.

That's before you harmonise payments between jurisdictions. Politically it's unrealistic to say you're cutting, for example pensions in ROI to NI rates so NI pensions etc will increase - increasing this 12 BN deficit.

You seriously think the UK will walk away from providing pensions? They didn't with regard to the EU. From what I recall, they were given options:
1) Provide a lump sum to fund the pensions or

2) Provide the funding every year to pay EU pensions for former British employees.

As with any major investment you have to take into account worse case scenario, how would you close this gap as things stand?

I have every confidence in the IDA in bringing in FDI into Northern Ireland.

You can't rely on an economic miracle in NI, beyond the name over the door what will have changed there to attract all this FDI?

I think what FDI investors say is that they have ready access to Government Ministers here who actually welcome investment and do everything they can to ease investment.

Groundwork for large scale FDI in ROI started about 20 years before we saw any real effect to the public finances. What do you do if you have another global crash in the meantime?

Yea, so the groundwork is already done.

As another poster said above if we're serious about a UI we need to exert soft power - i.e. Integrate the region as seamlessly as possible as things stand. Maybe then when it is in practice one nation on one land we really have a chance at a UI.

Soft power doesn't work on NI loyalists.

James Brown

blanch152 wrote: »

Nobody asked anyone to give their life for a united Ireland, and neither should they have. Nobody asked anyone to take a life for a united Ireland, but some thugs did.

Very simplistic take there.
Pointing out people put blood sweat an tears into dealing with and tackling living in the north since partition. You suggested people weren't willing to take the 'hard road'. Correcting you.

blanch152

Bowie wrote: »

Very simplistic take there.
Pointing out people put blood sweat an tears into dealing with and tackling living in the north since partition. You suggested people weren't willing to take the 'hard road'. Correcting you.

That wasn't the hard road, the hard road was the one taken by John Hume and Seamus Mallon, staying peaceful and not resorting to violence.

blanch152

jm08 wrote: »

I have every confidence in the IDA in bringing in FDI into Northern Ireland.

Based on what evidence? They can't bring FDI to Belmullet or West Donegal, so what chance Northern Ireland?

NovemberWren

blanch152 wrote: »

This is the bit that nobody seems to get.

Unless Sinn Fein and their supporters wake up to this, there is no hope. For a start, they need to work towards harmonisation in advance. Pushing for water charges in the South to match those in the North would be one idea. Looking at replacing LPT with the domestic charges in the North or vice versa would be another. Pushing for harmonisation of social welfare would be another policy they could promote. If the lads on here were arguing for things like that instead of pushing the idea of magic money trees, "investment" and taxing rainbows and unicorns, there might be some credibility to their arguments.

A most interesting post. And maybe this just shows that S.F. have actually just been deliberately giving a wrong impression in the south. An impression of gauche, uncomprehending, politic neophytes; and that serves as a cover for their pre-meditated army thugishness to the poorer locals that they manage to extract votes from.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Nobody asked anyone to give their life for a united Ireland, and neither should they have. Nobody asked anyone to take a life for a united Ireland, but some thugs did.

Nobody expected 80 years of a sectarian bigoted state's action to be ignored by a state that had the Proclamation at the heart of its birth either.

jm08

blanch152 wrote: »

Had a good laugh at that letter. Asking the question as to what logic the SoS has used not to call a referendum, I would assume the response would be something along the lines of "apart from the bleeding obvious, what else do you need?"

Not sure what you are talking about there. My post referred to a poll that Fine Gael took before Xmas which said that a UI is now the second or third most important issue among voters (presumably after health & housing).



Did you have a good laugh as well from that poll in late December that Sinn Fein is now the most popular party in Ireland?


https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40194033.html

blanch152

jm08 wrote: »

Not sure what you are talking about there. My post referred to a poll that Fine Gael took before Xmas which said that a UI is now the second or third most important issue among voters (presumably after health & housing).



Did you have a good laugh as well from that poll in late December that Sinn Fein is now the most popular party in Ireland?


https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40194033.html

You put up a Twitter link to some eejit who had written to the SoS about a border poll. I had a good laugh at his letter.

smurgen

blanch152 wrote: »

That wasn't the hard road, the hard road was the one taken by John Hume and Seamus Mallon, staying peaceful and not resorting to violence.

Blanch. FFG were in power when thousands of children died in mother and child homes and that report was out today. You're so concerned about death I'm wondering why I didn't see you comment on that today. Or the brutality and neglect overseen by the government and institutions at those times.

NovemberWren

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Nobody expected 80 years of a sectarian bigoted state's action to be ignored by a state that had the Proclamation at the heart of its birth either.

That's an salutary aspect of all of this. And the ensuing saga of tragedy and loss of life.

But though it was mostly probably the Orange citizens that insisted on staying in the U.K. - the U.K., who had colonies and were adept at drawing borders; maybe were, post WW1, thinking of a Europe framework decades or even a century ahead, and that if keeping a border in this island gave them a foothold militarily in case of another war.
And also a testing ground in regard to goods tariffs.

blanch152

smurgen wrote: »

Blanch. FFG were in power when thousands of children died in mother and child homes and that report was out today. You're so concerned about death I'm wondering why I didn't see you comment on that today. Or the brutality and neglect overseen by the government and institutions at those times.

Once you confirm you agree with me on the point made about the road taken by John Hume.............

smurgen

blanch152 wrote: »

Once you confirm you agree with me on the point made about the road taken by John Hume.............

John Hume was mocked ridiculed and derided by the establishment in his day. The Indo and Sunday Indo derided him on a weekly basis. If it was today you'd be mocking him in here.

James Brown

blanch152 wrote: »

That wasn't the hard road, the hard road was the one taken by John Hume and Seamus Mallon, staying peaceful and not resorting to violence.

More examples of people taking the hard road. You said nobody was willing to.