The wondrous adventures of Sinn Fein (part 2)

JohnnyFlash

This dude has taken the figures from the latest opinion poll and used it project seat numbers for the next Assembly elections.

https://jackarmstrong.home.blog/2020/10/13/2022-northern-ireland-assembly-election-analysis-by-constituency-based-on-october-2020-polling/

Estimates SF dropping to between 20 and 25 seats from their current 27.

Seems a lot of moderate nationalists and moderate unionists are moving back to SDLP and UUP, or throwing their hat into the Alliance ring.

Great to see and more of it.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

'All over twitter'?

I keep a fair eye on a good political and media cross section of twitter opinion and that is an exaggeration of staggering proportions to be honest.

He's not referring to gossip. The actual letters are on twitter.

dundalkfc10

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

This dude has taken the figures from the latest opinion poll and used it project seat numbers for the next Assembly elections.

https://jackarmstrong.home.blog/2020/10/13/2022-northern-ireland-assembly-election-analysis-by-constituency-based-on-october-2020-polling/

Estimates SF dropping to between 20 and 25 seats from their current 27.

Seems a lot of moderate nationalists and moderate unionists are moving back to SDLP and UUP, or throwing their hat into the Alliance ring.

Great to see and more of it.

Getting more and more popular in the 26 and less popular in the 6.

2020 strange time

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

He's not referring to gossip. The actual letters are on twitter.

'All over twitter'?

I think not.

dundalkfc10

jh79 wrote: »

He's not referring to gossip. The actual letters are on twitter.

Did the letter have MTK Global (Meet the Kinahans Global) on them?

You would think, you would have stopped after that statement

blanch152

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

This dude has taken the figures from the latest opinion poll and used it project seat numbers for the next Assembly elections.

https://jackarmstrong.home.blog/2020/10/13/2022-northern-ireland-assembly-election-analysis-by-constituency-based-on-october-2020-polling/

Estimates SF dropping to between 20 and 25 seats from their current 27.

Seems a lot of moderate nationalists and moderate unionists are moving back to SDLP and UUP, or throwing their hat into the Alliance ring.

Great to see and more of it.

Interesting analysis of the poll.

Unionist (DUP, UUP, TUV): 41%
Nationalist (SF, SDLP): 37%
Centrist (All, Green, PBP): 21%

The third alternative is rising.

jm08

IAMAMORON wrote: »

But there are official letters all over twitter stating the contrary?

Letters are dated last April. His most recent statement is he is not.

I can't imagine a solicitor making claims like that which are not true.

jm08

jh79 wrote: »

https://www.thesun.ie/sport/boxing/5429450/boxing-bob-arum-daniel-kinahan-organising-michael-conlan-fight/

For those who claim Kinehan had no role in Conlon's fight.

So Daniel blessed it.

We worked in conjunction with MTK and it worked out. Obviously Daniel blessed it but he . . . he wasn’t hands-on (with) us doing the event. I guess he made sure that MTK people were checked, cooperating with us. “We were working well together. I wouldn’t say that he just walked away from it. I think he was involved from the standpoint that he wanted to make sure that everybody was cooperating on the event, which we were.
“And we’ve got a very good relationship with MTK. Mick’s brother Jamie is a terrific kid.”
Conlon and his brother Jamie have no involvement in crime.

jm08

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

This dude has taken the figures from the latest opinion poll and used it project seat numbers for the next Assembly elections.

https://jackarmstrong.home.blog/2020/10/13/2022-northern-ireland-assembly-election-analysis-by-constituency-based-on-october-2020-polling/

Estimates SF dropping to between 20 and 25 seats from their current 27.

Seems a lot of moderate nationalists and moderate unionists are moving back to SDLP and UUP, or throwing their hat into the Alliance ring.

Great to see and more of it.

No they are not. Alliance and TUV are the ones with the biggest gains. UUP is actually losing votes.

• Sinn Féin: 24% (-3.9%)
• DUP: 23% (-5.1%)
• Alliance: 16% (+6.9%)
• SDLP: 13% (+1.1%)
• UUP: 12% (-0.9%)
• TUV: 6% (+3.4%)
• Green: 3% (+0.7%)
• People Before Profit: 2% (+0.2%)
• Other: 1% (-2.7%)

jh79

jm08 wrote: »

So Daniel blessed it.

And what about Fury's video? If he is no longer associated with MTK why was he involved in the negotiations?

jh79

jm08 wrote: »

Letters are dated last April. His most recent statement is he is not.

I can't imagine a solicitor making claims like that which are not true.

So he worked for him in April 2019?

FrancieBrady

jm08 wrote: »

No they are not. Alliance and TUV are the ones with the biggest gains. UUP is actually losing votes.

• Sinn Féin: 24% (-3.9%)
• DUP: 23% (-5.1%)
• Alliance: 16% (+6.9%)
• SDLP: 13% (+1.1%)
• UUP: 12% (-0.9%)
• TUV: 6% (+3.4%)
• Green: 3% (+0.7%)
• People Before Profit: 2% (+0.2%)
• Other: 1% (-2.7%)

Polls are not Johnny's thing.
Gaining 1% since the last election is 'losing support' now dropping support means gaining support.

Finty Lemon

Pearse Doherty sounded very tired on Prime Time. Nothing new to offer, every soundbite swatted away by Pascal Donohoe.
You could tell who finished school.

Truthvader

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Getting more and more popular in the 26 and less popular in the 6.

2020 strange time

The 6 have the advantage of seeing them in action. Maybe hope of some normality to see Alliance on the rise

FrancieBrady

Truthvader wrote: »

The 6 have the advantage of seeing them in action.

Maybe that explains FG's results in our general election.

blanch152

Truthvader wrote: »

The 6 have the advantage of seeing them in action. Maybe hope of some normality to see Alliance on the rise

Absolutely, the rise of the middle ground is very important.

Young people in Northern Ireland are tired of the two sectarian parties and aren't interested in their constitutional crusades.

mattser

Finty Lemon wrote: »

Pearse Doherty sounded very tired on Prime Time. Nothing new to offer, every soundbite swatted away by Pascal Donohoe.
You could tell who finished school.

They were hoping for any opportunity to pounce, but it looks like there's a fairly good acceptance from most sectors.
I suppose people realise that the only other political option was the alternative ' Robin Hood ' budget. The supporters of that seem pretty muted from what I've seen since I came in from work.

blanch152

mattser wrote: »

They were hoping for any opportunity to pounce, but it looks like there's a fairly good acceptance from most sectors.
I suppose people realise that the only other political option was the alternative ' Robin Hood ' budget. The supporters of that seem pretty muted from what I've seen since I came in from work.

People realise we have a grown-up government.

They only need to look up North to see the chaos a childish government brings.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Absolutely, the rise of the middle ground is very important.

Young people in Northern Ireland are tired of the two sectarian parties and aren't interested in their constitutional crusades.

You sure about that? Or are you bluffing again.

Younger voters were significantly in favour of leaving the UK and joining the Republic of Ireland.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/northern-ireland-poll-brexit-reunification-16915422

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You sure about that? Or are you bluffing again.



https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/northern-ireland-poll-brexit-reunification-16915422

A year-old poll?

Look at the election results and the polls over time, together the nationalist parties have fallen back to the late-30s having been up in the mid-40s.

mattser

blanch152 wrote: »

A year-old poll?

Look at the election results and the polls over time, together the nationalist parties have fallen back to the late-30s having been up in the mid-40s.

There's always one. Early start. Goodnight.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

A year-old poll?

Look at the election results and the polls over time, together the nationalist parties have fallen back to the late-30s having been up in the mid-40s.

SDLP suddenly against a UI?

Show us your data that shows Young people are not interested in constitutional issues'.

Nobotty

https://twitter.com/Glic16/status/1316020699413192705?s=19

I'll just leave that there

grayzer75

blanch152 wrote: »

Both, he is supporting both. Good republicans all.

Wrong yet again young Paisley.

Bishop of hope

Tough decisions up north.

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/pubs-and-schools-to-close-after-ministers-criticised-for-dithering-on-decision-over-new-covid-restrictions-39622783.html

FrancieBrady

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Tough decisions up north.

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/pubs-and-schools-to-close-after-ministers-criticised-for-dithering-on-decision-over-new-covid-restrictions-39622783.html

Leo on radio this morning essentially saying that it's not that they want to close the border they just want to move it south, cede Cavan Monagahn and Donegal and hope to contain it.

Lunacy again...an all island solution is the only way.

Jinglejangle69

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Tough decisions up north.

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/pubs-and-schools-to-close-after-ministers-criticised-for-dithering-on-decision-over-new-covid-restrictions-39622783.html

We were told sinn fein have no say on how they handle the coronavirus by people here because they take their instructions from Boris but now they can call a lockdown all of a sudden.

Which one is it??

Have they more say than we're led to believe in other things like health homelessness etc that were told is out of their control?

Has this shown how badly they have handled the pandemic?

Bishop of hope

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

We were told sinn fein have no say on how they handle the coronavirus by people here because they take their instructions from Boris but now they can call a lockdown all of a sudden.

Which one is it??

Have they more say than we're led to believe in other things like health homelessness etc that were told us out of their control?

Has this shown how badly they have handled the pandemic?

I'm not sure, but they have been eerily silent on it one way or another.

FrancieBrady

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

We were told sinn fein have no say on how they handle the coronavirus by people here because they take their instructions from Boris but now they can call a lockdown all of a sudden.

Which one is it??

Have they more say than we're led to believe in other things like health homelessness etc that were told us out of their control?

Has this shown how badly they have handled the pandemic?

Who said they take their instructions from Boris?


Several of the 5 partners in the executive wish to take instructions from Boris is what has been said.

That s what has made securing the health of this island so difficult. The incidence of the virus in the north is down to this divisiveness and the failure of the state it has caused.

Jinglejangle69

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Who said they take their instructions from Boris?


Several of the 5 partners in the executive wish to take instructions from Boris is what has been said.

That s what has made securing the health of this island so difficult. The incidence of the virus in the north is down to this divisiveness and the failure of the state it has caused.

Or Michelle O Neill admitting her actions has led to damaging the public confidence in how they are handling the pandemic.