Anyone thinking home prices will fall in 2021

saabsaab

Drop slowly at first but as unemployment rises houses will fall further in 2022.

s1ippy

Property prices aren't going to fall anymore, albeit in my opinion.

Vulture and cuckoo funds are buying up all the property all the time now, so there's never going to be a time when it isn't a sellers' market. Coupled with the fact that virtually everyone in the Dáil is a landlord, so it suits them that their assets are appreciating all the time. Unless there is tight regulation, preventing outside buyers snapping up all the houses out there, you'll be lucky to get any value whatsoever here.

It's not going to happen; they increased the help to buy scheme by €10k a few weeks ago and all the properties increased by that much. Any useful measures they can put in place will result in them losing money so they're not willing to do it.

sheepsh4gger

mjshravan wrote: »

Hi,

As corona pandemic will not end anytime soon, and it will bound to have ripple effects in 2021 anyone thinking prices will fall next year

I expect a straight crash but nobody will want to admit that's a possibility.


Unlike 2008 the broadband today is decent enough for everyone to work from home. At present, if you live in say Dublin you can't take an advantage of any of the amenities that come from living in a city. You're just forced to look at 4 walls which will drive you mad.


Everyone is moving now out of populated centers and I expect the government to even start re-opening long closed railways.

sheepsh4gger

Even before the current crisis if you say work I.T. the Dublin offices would be completely overcrowded and they would send employees home to work over remote desktop.

ardinn

After my first post, today I hear the Waterford IT will basically be doing all of its 20/21 courses online.

This will have a huge impact on waterford, virtually no rental market from students - shops, bars, nightclubs, everything will be hit really hard.

Houses with no rental income and owners not being able to pay 2 mortgages on 1 income will surely see the market fall in the area, there is surely thousands of properties rented to students in waterford?

VillageIdiot71

Dav010 wrote: »

Without a doubt, and yet the prices seem to be confounding the economists and banks. It seems there are still a lot of cash buyers out there and the shortage of supply outweighs the effects of the pandemic when it comes to house sales. I read an article which said that there are fewer houses for sale now than at anytime over the past 20 years.

And household have something like 100 billion in savings.

Mortgage credit is only one element driving prices.

https://igees.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/The-Context-for-NDP-Housing-Spend.pdf

 Annual housing market spend tripled since 2010, from €5 billion to over €14.5 billion
 The €9.5 billion increase is not fuelled by mortgage credit; mortgage drawdowns have increased
by only €2.5 billion
 Spend is highly concentrated in a few counties, and tends not to connect to new supply
o Dublin and the Mid-East accounts for 64% of spend since 2010
o Second hand market accounts for 80% of spend (€11.8 billion in 2017)
o New housing market accounts for 20% of spend (€2.8 billion in 2017)

Hubertj

ardinn wrote: »

After my first post, today I hear the Waterford IT will basically be doing all of its 20/21 courses online.

This will have a huge impact on waterford, virtually no rental market from students - shops, bars, nightclubs, everything will be hit really hard.

Houses with no rental income and owners not being able to pay 2 mortgages on 1 income will surely see the market fall in the area, there is surely thousands of properties rented to students in waterford?

Very tough on students and the city. Part of college life is the academic side but the overall experience is important. Meeting new people, making friends, leaving home etc.

brisan

Hubertj wrote: »

Very tough on students and the city. Part of college life is the academic side but the overall experience is important. Meeting new people, making friends, leaving home etc.

Waterford will not be the only one
The Institute Of education on Leeson which deals with 5th and 6 th year secondary school students is giving students the option of learning online
A lot of universities will follow suit
120 First year nursing students in a packed lecture hall is a thing of the past

boege

ardinn wrote: »

After my first post, today I hear the Waterford IT will basically be doing all of its 20/21 courses online.

This will have a huge impact on waterford, virtually no rental market from students - shops, bars, nightclubs, everything will be hit really hard.

Houses with no rental income and owners not being able to pay 2 mortgages on 1 income will surely see the market fall in the area, there is surely thousands of properties rented to students in waterford?

UL doing the same as are most other universities. University accommodation will probably prioritise international students for revenue reasons. Remaining university accommodation available for Irish students will migrate to a hostel model so that student stake 5 days and the rest is at online and at home. I work in the sector and I think it will have a significant impact on private rental accommodation around campuses. I am not sure it will impact house prices.

The banks control the housing market in Ireland - the boom (and crash) proved that, and governments control the banks now.

M256

The impact of online learning is much bigger than one thinks. Leading universities can do more students online, so who would want a degree from a uni no one heard of outside of your village such as Waterford IT when you can get a diploma from an internationally recognizeable school like TCD.

So anyone thinking about rental market in those areas should be thinking about something else as those unis will cease to exist.

kooreczka

We're FTB and we've been looking for a few months now, not only prices haven't gone down they went up and the reason is simple huge demand. Banks are pilled up with mortagage applications at the moment the fear of recesion and banks not lending actually will drive the prices up...but will there be a recession?

Asking prices certainly haven’t dropped - in fact they are still increasing, a house went up for sale close to me in the last few weeks and it is the highest ever a house of it’s type has been priced at. Asking prices end of last years were 10 to 20k lower.

As others have said people need to remember even if there is a minor recession it will be a nothing like the last one. A large number of people are totally unaffected, there is a large demand for housing that hasn’t gone away and other factors like increasing need for social housing will further reduced supply for private buyers.

IAMAMORON

They are falling and will fall more.

No recovery until early 2022.

I refuse to explain why, actually I am too lazy to, but it makes sense.

Smouse156

Pkiernan wrote: »

Projected housing need is 36000per year for next 20 years.

Current build capacity is 17000 per year.

How are prices going to fall in the short term?

Sinn Féin/IRA to win 80 seats in the next election if it stays this way

sweet_trip

https://www.thejournal.ie/average-asking-price-houses-ireland-2-5187865-Aug2020/

I knew they weren't dropping. Been looking at houses all year and haven't see the prices drop one bit.

dunnerc

Smouse156 wrote: »

Sinn Féin/IRA to win 80 seats in the next election if it stays this way

Whats that got to do with this topic ? :rolleyes:

Lux23

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-rise-by-4-3-amid-lifting-of-covid-19-restrictions-report-says-1.4340523?fbclid=IwAR1tMosxzPv6h3rONO5rozWEp3BadPJJOTZPS1bihPZJzJqcdyluyMEwsVo

Seriously, can't my head around this.

IAMAMORON

IAMAMORON wrote: »

They are falling and will fall more.

No recovery until early 2022.
.

Not what I'm seeing.

IAMAMORON

Gavin Itchy Row wrote: »

Not what I'm seeing.

Not everyone gets to work in Monte Carlo.

GetWithIt

Lux23 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-rise-by-4-3-amid-lifting-of-covid-19-restrictions-report-says-1.4340523?fbclid=IwAR1tMosxzPv6h3rONO5rozWEp3BadPJJOTZPS1bihPZJzJqcdyluyMEwsVo

Seriously, can't my head around this.

Asking prices

Angela Keegan, managing director of MyHome.ie, said the increase in asking prices .....

woodchuck

Lux23 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-rise-by-4-3-amid-lifting-of-covid-19-restrictions-report-says-1.4340523?fbclid=IwAR1tMosxzPv6h3rONO5rozWEp3BadPJJOTZPS1bihPZJzJqcdyluyMEwsVo

Seriously, can't my head around this.

Well it's asking prices for a start, as opposed to what they've actually sold for.

But I wouldn't be surprised if house prices (asking and actual) stay high for some time. At the moment, it appears that demand still outweighs supply and there are plenty of people who's jobs haven't been affected by Covid.

It's hard to know what will happen when a recession inevitably hits though. Nobody is bullet proof. Even public sector works with secure jobs will be hit by an increase in taxes.

It seems to me that it's all about supply vs demand though. So long as demand outweighs supply, it's hard to imagine prices dropping significantly, even in a recession.

CertifiedSimp

I am a renter. I would like to buy but it won't be a long term home. I plan to stay for a few more years but I also don't want to rent. Prices if they stayed as they are would be fine. I am only worried if prices tank and it turns out I made a terrible decision.

I'd love to see a month by month figure of migration statistics. For example the brazilians that would be due to leave this summer and return to Brazil, a lot more usually come around August/September/October.

In the year up to April 2019 there was 20k next increase in Non EEA people coming here. That's what, 10k housing units needed just to house them?

Now, prices before all this had started to level out. That means the supply was enough to meet the demand of buyers/investors. Of course housing developments will slow or not start but it's not like there'll be 0 housing built.

So with more housing being built and not only does that 20k increase a year from non EEA migrants not happen, but more people leave than arrive, things surely have to drop.

And that's only looking at non EEA. Those from other european countries may not come here either with hospitality hit so hard.

Even if prices dropped a little early next year, I'd still be worried over the couple years after. Seems to take a while for evictions to happen and prices to drop. Crisis in 08 happened and prices were rock bottom in 2011/12

Geuze

Lux23 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-rise-by-4-3-amid-lifting-of-covid-19-restrictions-report-says-1.4340523?fbclid=IwAR1tMosxzPv6h3rONO5rozWEp3BadPJJOTZPS1bihPZJzJqcdyluyMEwsVo

Seriously, can't my head around this.

Yes, asking prices up, yet on the same day, mortgage approvals down.

Odd.

Of course they will fall.
Currently people are buying quick as they spent the last few months in lockdown.
Sellers are also selling as quick as possible before they drop.
I have noticed some asking prices going up slightly, probably just allowing for lower offers.

Ray Palmer

Lux23 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-rise-by-4-3-amid-lifting-of-covid-19-restrictions-report-says-1.4340523?fbclid=IwAR1tMosxzPv6h3rONO5rozWEp3BadPJJOTZPS1bihPZJzJqcdyluyMEwsVo

Seriously, can't my head around this.

What is so difficult to understand? Suplly and demand, low stock of housing and still a demand higher than supply.

There is a huge waiting list for council housing and the alternative is HAP. Any empty rentals can be rented out on HAP if needed. Any property freed up by people moving out of the cities will be taken up.

When workers and college students return there will be a bigger housing crisis.

Somebody suggested people will move to bigger houses but never said where the houses are and where the money will come from.

More people will be applying for HAP and council housing as they lose their jobs. While many workers have no salary drop but less expenses by WFH. There will be a noticable disparity among the population. Those with money no longer availing of services that pay lower paid workers such as coffee shop workers.

Geuze

woodchuck wrote: »

But I wouldn't be surprised if house prices (asking and actual) stay high for some time. At the moment, it appears that demand still outweighs supply and there are plenty of people who's jobs haven't been affected by Covid.

It's hard to know what will happen when a recession inevitably hits though. Nobody is bullet proof. Even public sector works with secure jobs will be hit by an increase in taxes.

It seems to me that it's all about supply vs demand though. So long as demand outweighs supply, it's hard to imagine prices dropping significantly, even in a recession.

Correct, yes.

Even if demand falls a bit, demand still exceeds supply.

Too few new builds


Factor supporting demand:

(1) reasonable real wage growth in recent years
(2) household balance sheets improved since 2015, savings accumulated
(3) mortgage interest rates have fallen over last 2-3 years, although still too high
(4) cheaper to buy than rent, due to soaring rents
(5) many potential buyers have been saving more due to COVID
(6) continued immigration

CertifiedSimp

Lux23 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-rise-by-4-3-amid-lifting-of-covid-19-restrictions-report-says-1.4340523?fbclid=IwAR1tMosxzPv6h3rONO5rozWEp3BadPJJOTZPS1bihPZJzJqcdyluyMEwsVo

Seriously, can't my head around this.

I think sellers are upping their price so that when someone comes with an offer they'll say "sure I dropped it by 10%, you got a great deal!".

I saw a property I was watching on daft, was on for months. It was 230k.

About a month ago I saw it, the price had gone up to 245k.

So, the question is why would they do that? If they have the bids of over 230k from people, why the need to up the price on daft? If they have a bid of 235k, then you're moving the goalposts on that bidder.

If they have a bid of 245k, why advertise it for 245k when they already have a bid at that?

I have just checked, the property was first up in 1 October 2019 for 230k. On 27 July the price went up to 245k. Explain that one.

Geuze

woodchuck wrote: »

It's hard to know what will happen when a recession inevitably hits though. Nobody is bullet proof. Even public sector works with secure jobs will be hit by an increase in taxes.

It seems to me that it's all about supply vs demand though. So long as demand outweighs supply, it's hard to imagine prices dropping significantly, even in a recession.

When a recession hits?

We are in a severe recession now.

2020 Quarter 1 saw some growth in GDP/GNP, so technically that wasn't a recession.

Obviously Q2 has seen savage falls in output/income/GDP.

Will Q3 show further falls, I'm not sure.

Even if Q3 and Q4 show some growth after the sharp falls in Q2, overall 2020 income will be much lower than 2019.

So we are in the middle of a sharp recession now.


The impact is being softened by PUP, TWSS, etc.

Smouse156

dunnerc wrote: »

Whats that got to do with this topic ? :rolleyes:

It was a reply to 17k houses being built v 36k required. It means if they don’t change things and increase supply significantly they’ll be out on their ass in a few years. Considering politicians sole goal is to stay in power, me thinks they’ll do something about the housing supply.

If they fail...I’m sure Slab Murphy would do a better job than Eoghan Murphy at housing 😂

Geuze

woodchuck wrote: »

It's hard to know what will happen when a recession inevitably hits though. Nobody is bullet proof. Even public sector works with secure jobs will be hit by an increase in taxes.

Yes.

It seems the final pay restoration of the PSSA will be paid this Sep/Oct?

Do you see a pay pause after that?

Do you see pay cuts?

I wonder what will happen?

Increments frozen?