Anyone thinking home prices will fall in 2021

brisan

Gavin Itchy Row wrote: »

Asking prices certainly haven’t dropped - in fact they are still increasing, a house went up for sale close to me in the last few weeks and it is the highest ever a house of it’s type has been priced at. Asking prices end of last years were 10 to 20k lower.

As others have said people need to remember even if there is a minor recession it will be a nothing like the last one. A large number of people are totally unaffected, there is a large demand for housing that hasn’t gone away and other factors like increasing need for social housing will further reduced supply for private buyers.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/us-economic-recession-tracker/

https://www.ft.com/content/734e604b-93d9-43a6-a6ec-19e8b22dad3c

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-faces-deep-downturn-this-year-and-may-not-rebound-until-2024-if-there-is-a-second-wave-1.4294913

https://www.businessworld.ie/european-news/ECB-predicts-big-2020-recession-and-partial-rebound-next-year-574039.html

Are you sure about the MINOR recession.
Oh and add Brexit into the mix

VillageIdiot71

Geuze wrote: »

Yes, asking prices up, yet on the same day, mortgage approvals down.

Odd.

Because there are three elements involved.

One is amount of money available. Mortgage drawdowns, in the past, only provide about half the money spent.

Savings are another source of funding. They've never been higher, so folk have a lot of cash looking for a destination.

The final element is availability of stock, most of which is second-hand property. New builds really just top-up the stock, and only switches on when prices are mental.

So what does that mean? The total amount spent on housing fluctuates strongly. Between 2010 and 2017 it fluctuated between about €4.5 billion and €14 billion - with mortgage drawdowns only accounting for a couple of billion in the difference.

Put very simply, if you've €5 billion in spend chasing 1,000 houses, you'll have higher prices than if you'd €10 billion in spend chasing 5,000 houses. And supply will be choked off the moment prices stutter. Folk won't sell second hand properties in a depressed market, and builders will stop building.

CertifiedSimp

woodchuck wrote: »

It's hard to know what will happen when a recession inevitably hits though. Nobody is bullet proof. Even public sector works with secure jobs will be hit by an increase in taxes.

This is the recession apparantly.

brisan

Lux23 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-rise-by-4-3-amid-lifting-of-covid-19-restrictions-report-says-1.4340523?fbclid=IwAR1tMosxzPv6h3rONO5rozWEp3BadPJJOTZPS1bihPZJzJqcdyluyMEwsVo

Seriously, can't my head around this.

Well judging by posters on here who were doing their best to get a mortgage now before they lose their job I am not surprised that prices rose

Dublin prices at the lower end (the standard 2 bed flat) will fall a little, I have no doubt, as remote working and general unemployment levels bite. But the limited supply of proper houses will ensure that they dont drop.

But property in the country, and in smaller towns, will skyrocket. I have already seen a few small rural properties in Sligo bid up to 30-40% above asking (I was part of that bidding in two instances, and lost out)

Geuze

Gavin Itchy Row wrote: »

As others have said people need to remember even if there is a minor recession it will be a nothing like the last one. A large number of people are totally unaffected, there is a large demand for housing that hasn’t gone away and other factors like increasing need for social housing will further reduced supply for private buyers.

Yes, correct.

However, note that there is no "if".

We are now in the middle of a severe recession in output.

IAMAMORON

Lux23 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-rise-by-4-3-amid-lifting-of-covid-19-restrictions-report-says-1.4340523?fbclid=IwAR1tMosxzPv6h3rONO5rozWEp3BadPJJOTZPS1bihPZJzJqcdyluyMEwsVo

Seriously, can't my head around this.

Looks iffy, very hype the market if you ask me.

Minor bubs all things considered, who has the money?

I can fathom banks being loose enough with mortgage apps, but they would want to keep on eye on next year. The reshuffling and restructuring has already begun, the banks know this as they are at it themselves.

s1ippy

Lux23 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-rise-by-4-3-amid-lifting-of-covid-19-restrictions-report-says-1.4340523?fbclid=IwAR1tMosxzPv6h3rONO5rozWEp3BadPJJOTZPS1bihPZJzJqcdyluyMEwsVo

Seriously, can't my head around this.

Vulture funds and the increased "refund" from the help to buy scheme (thanks Leo for your legacy)

JJJackal

M256 wrote: »

The impact of online learning is much bigger than one thinks. Leading universities can do more students online, so who would want a degree from a uni no one heard of outside of your village such as Waterford IT when you can get a diploma from an internationally recognizeable school like TCD.

So anyone thinking about rental market in those areas should be thinking about something else as those unis will cease to exist.

Universities will want students back - on the subject of WIT v TCD.

Why go for WIT or TCD if you could do it on line in MIT or Cal Tech or somewhere in the UK? (obviously I appreciate entry may be more challenging)

Markitron

mjshravan wrote: »

Hi,

As corona pandemic will not end anytime soon, and it will bound to have ripple effects in 2021 anyone thinking prices will fall next year

It depends.

If you are living in your ma's box room whilst saving a deposit, then yes, they are definitely gonna drop and you will make out like a bandit.

If you just spent 450k on a 30 year old semi-detached in Dublin, then the prices are going up and anyone that doesn't buy right now is stuck in their ma's box room forever.

brisan

JJJackal wrote: »

Universities will want students back - on the subject of WIT v TCD.

Why go for WIT or TCD if you could do it on line in MIT or Cal Tech or somewhere in the UK? (obviously I appreciate entry may be more challenging)

Will they be allowed have them back in anything approaching previous numbers
Will students want to be back
Do not forget a lot of the jobs that paid for students rent ,pubs ,restaurants retail etc are gone

JJJackal

Geuze wrote: »

When a recession hits?

We are in a severe recession now.

2020 Quarter 1 saw some growth in GDP/GNP, so technically that wasn't a recession.

Obviously Q2 has seen savage falls in output/income/GDP.

Will Q3 show further falls, I'm not sure.

Even if Q3 and Q4 show some growth after the sharp falls in Q2, overall 2020 income will be much lower than 2019.

So we are in the middle of a sharp recession now.


The impact is being softened by PUP, TWSS, etc.

Do you not need 2 consecutive quarter drops for a recession? Q3 could well show a rise because of the very very sharp drop in Q2

ELM327

JJJackal wrote: »

Do you not need 2 consecutive quarter drops for a recession? Q3 could well show a rise because of the very very sharp drop in Q2

Recession = two quarters of negative growth


So we are not in a recession yet. If Q3 is negative too, then it's a recession. Not before.

JJJackal

brisan wrote: »

Will they be allowed have them back in anything approaching previous numbers
Will students want to be back
Do not forget a lot of the jobs that paid for students rent ,pubs ,restaurants retail etc are gone

Will they be allowed - dont know - but universities will want people back or else people will go online elsewhere and the universities wont be able to stay open

Students want to meet people, live etc etc - of course most do

Some of these jobs are gone because there are no students - no students drinking in the student pubs etc etc

JJJackal

ELM327 wrote: »

Recession = two quarters of negative growth


So we are not in a recession yet. If Q3 is negative too, then it's a recession. Not before.

Its possible that by definition we wont have a recession

ELM327

JJJackal wrote: »

Its possible that by definition we wont have a recession

And that is true too
If the nadir was Q2 and it's gradually and slowly recovering since then, then there will be no recession. You are correct.

Hawthorn Tree

I expect a rise in GDP in Q3 largely due to dramatic decrease in Q2.

I do expect overall GDP figures to remain well below 2019 levels in 2021 and 2022 and possibly 2023.

I also expect unemployment to be above 10% until at least mid 2023.

JJJackal

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

I expect a rise in GDP in Q3 largely due to dramatic decrease in Q2.

I do expect overall GDP figures to remain well below 2019 levels in 2021 and 2022 and possibly 2023.

I also expect unemployment to be above 10% until at least mid 2023.

Unemployment will be >10% until there is a vaccine

Ray Palmer

brisan wrote: »

Will they be allowed have them back in anything approaching previous numbers
Will students want to be back
Do not forget a lot of the jobs that paid for students rent ,pubs ,restaurants retail etc are gone

Yes they will return it is just a matter of when. People seem to think all college work can be done online. Many courses have practical elements to them like lab work. Online college is only suitable for certain studies. Equipment in colleges is vital for certain aspects of study.

Many large businesses have vested interests in office space prices one way or the other. WFH is temporary for many even if they don't know it.

The idea people are going to now all move to the country and WFH is a fantasy. There will be a percentage increase but won't be more the 10% IMHO.

Ray Palmer

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Yes they will return it is just a matter of when. People seem to think all college work can be done online. Many courses have practical elements to them like lab work. Online college is only suitable for certain studies. Equipment in colleges is vital for certain aspects of study.

Even courses that have lab work will still have significant amounts of lecture time also particularly in the first 2 to 3 years of the course so there is plenty of scope for say having one week of labs per month or maybe one or two days per week where there are labs with all the rest of learning done online. Thus students wont need to have permanent accommodation or any at all as even a long commute is doable if its not every day. DCU for example have converted their student accommodation to being book by the day rather than by the term.

University is ideally suited to online learning as for the most part its already done this way aside from actually attending lectures and lets face it lecture attendance can be very hit and miss with a lot of people relying on getting the notes etc from online distribution. There is also very little interaction in a lecture with students usually taking notes and little else so personally I think an online lecture would be just as beneficial.

Reps4jesus

people on forums seem to get too hung up on what technically counts as a recession ie 2 quarters of negative growth. It is quite clear to see that the economy has taken an incredible blow this year and will take a good while to recover, whether it was officially a recession by the technical description or not doesnt matter

Hulk Hands

Reps4jesus wrote: »

people on forums seem to get too hung up on what technically counts as a recession ie 2 quarters of negative growth. It is quite clear to see that the economy has taken an incredible blow this year and will take a good while to recover, whether it was officially a recession by the technical description or not doesnt matter

This. By the US definition of the word also, we're bang in a recession. It's just pedants who are arguing it. Every knows what's being referred to, the Covid induced downturn in the economy

Ray Palmer

Gavin Itchy Row wrote: »

Even courses that have lab work will still have significant amounts of lecture time also particularly in the first 2 to 3 years of the course so there is plenty of scope for say having one week of labs per month or maybe one or two days per week where there are labs with all the rest of learning done online. Thus students wont need to have permanent accommodation or any at all as even a long commute is doable if its not every day. DCU for example have converted their student accommodation to being book by the day rather than by the term.

University is ideally suited to online learning as for the most part its already done this way aside from actually attending lectures and lets face it lecture attendance can be very hit and miss with a lot of people relying on getting the notes etc from online distribution. There is also very little interaction in a lecture with students usually taking notes and little else so personally I think an online lecture would be just as beneficial.

It really depends on the courses involved. I just picked labs as an example. There are many courses the require equipment in colleges. Architect students have a lot of practice work and construction projects. Art students need equipment and space not at home.

It doesnt effect all equally. The colleges want the students back and the students want to be back. Part of college is moving out to most.

The current situation is temporary people can barely control themselves as is. Property investment is a marathon not a sprint. Next few year will impact but there will be more demand and less housing is certain. How prices and rent react will have some limitations but we still have a basic problem of supply and demand.

M256

History is full of companies that did not want to change and thought they knew better. In IT WFH was a trend even before the pandemic. Now it is seen by many employers as a benefit. Your company can do anything they want, but it is all about bargaining power, and the labor market is competitive.

Of course not all jobs can be done WFH and not all courses can be taught online but majority of that can be done easily and more productively.

Why waste your time on a degree in Waterford when an online degree from a US university gives you better chances on the global market?

Donald Trump

M256 wrote: »

Why waste your time on a degree in Waterford when an online degree from a US university gives you better chances on the global market?

Fixed your post there

Geuze

JJJackal wrote: »

Universities will want students back - on the subject of WIT v TCD.

Why go for WIT or TCD if you could do it on line in MIT or Cal Tech or somewhere in the UK? (obviously I appreciate entry may be more challenging)

TCD = 3,000 euro

MIT = USD 40,000????

Springy Turf

Geuze wrote: »

TCD = 3,000 euro

MIT = USD 40,000????

TCD is a lot more than 3,000 euros for non-eu

JJJackal

Geuze wrote: »

TCD = 3,000 euro

MIT = USD 40,000????

MIT will get you a better job by saying you went to MIT - this is for certain

Donald Trump

JJJackal wrote: »

MIT will get you a better job by saying you went to MIT - this is for certain

Saying you went to MIT is a whole lot different to saying you did an online MOOC based course (along with 2000 others) with them

Edgware

Donald Trump wrote: »

Saying you went to MIT is a whole lot different to saying you did an online MOOC based course (along with 2000 others) with them

Ian Paisley got his doctorate for 45 dollars and he did allright