Anyone thinking home prices will fall in 2021

Spanish Eyes

We are looking for a tiny bolthole anywhere within two hours max of Dublin, no chance. That's where the market is now mark my words. The Covid bounce.

IAMAMORON

Donald Trump wrote: »

Saying you went to MIT is a whole lot different to saying you did an online MOOC based course (along with 2000 others) with them

What is MIT?

IAMAMORON

IAMAMORON wrote: »

What is MIT?

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

John Hutton

Geuze wrote: »

Yes.

It seems the final pay restoration of the PSSA will be paid this Sep/Oct?

Do you see a pay pause after that?

Do you see pay cuts?

I wonder what will happen?

Increments frozen?

I think the next pay agreement will be an "as you were" one (significant pay increases were expected).



I also expect a big push for early retirements and probably a hiring freeze.



I can't see the government being able to withhold increments or cut the pay of nurses, teachers, Garda etc. Could you imagine?



This recession is markedly different than the last one where there was a lot of enmity for the public sector. Unions (Forsa) are also far stronger and more determined.



The public sector have really pulled out all the stops for this one and in no way can they be blamed for the recession as they were (unfairly) the last time. Across the board the PS and CS have pulled out all the stops and done really hard work in difficult circumstances.

Donald Trump

Gavin Itchy Row wrote: »

IAMAMORON wrote: »

What is MIT?

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

When you have an uncle who was a professor at MIT you know these things



It's a bit like GMIT but without Galway

Spanish Eyes

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

We are looking for a tiny bolthole anywhere within two hours max of Dublin, no chance. That's where the market is now mark my words. The Covid bounce.

I’ve already seen it. Tried to buy a small place in Sligo and it was bid 40% over asking and out of my reach (an asking price which before COVID would have been a fair price)

Edit: a rural property, not Sligo town

Half of covid 19 mortgage breaks still active. That cant last indefinitely. Hard to see how current property prices can be maintained or increase over next year or 2.

Ompl

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I’ve already seen it. Tried to buy a small place in Sligo and it was bid 40% over asking and out of my reach (an asking price which before COVID would have been a fair price)

Edit: a rural property, not Sligo town

Same here, I tried to buy a wreck in the town, advertised at 75k, when I called there was already an offer of 91k and I see sale agreed on it this week so 91k or more possibly for a 3bed townhouse in disrepair! It was on the market before Covid began too, but only sold last week!

Ompl

Ompl wrote: »

Same here, I tried to buy a wreck in the town, advertised at 75k, when I called there was already an offer of 91k and I see sale agreed on it this week so 91k or more possibly for a 3bed townhouse in disrepair! It was on the market before Covid began too, but only sold last week!

I don’t think it’s a COVID bounce. I think it’s a fundamental shift in the way that many of us will live. I won’t be ever be returning to the office now for more than 1 or perhaps 2 days a week. So don’t want to be stuck in Dublin all that time when I don’t need to be

The place I wanted was apparently bought by someone in London wanting an Irish rural bolthole. If Londoners are seeing rural Ireland as their future pandemic escape or WFH option, properties are going to get really expensive

JJJackal

Donald Trump wrote: »

Saying you went to MIT is a whole lot different to saying you did an online MOOC based course (along with 2000 others) with them

If you have an engineering degree with MIT - and its predominantly online - I doubt the qualification says Beng online (or whatever the equivalent initials in the US are) - it says BEng

antiskeptic

mjshravan wrote: »

Hi,

As corona pandemic will not end anytime soon, and it will bound to have ripple effects in 2021 anyone thinking prices will fall next year

Just sold a house in Greystones to a couple who'd been looking at shoeboxes in Dublin but who are henceforth going to homework. The Coronavirus literally turned them 180 degrees in their thinking.

Many folk won't want to go back to congested roads and public transport. And since employers gain too what we might see is a redistribution of prices - stuff in more desirable living locations going up and stuff in locations that gave commuting advantage, but otherwise had issues, going down.

Then again, I can't see how the world economy can't but tank so it's a big price drop I'd be banking on. No help to a buyer though, since drops means banks pucker up in their lending.

Donald Trump

JJJackal wrote: »

If you have an engineering degree with MIT - and its predominantly online - I doubt the qualification says Beng online (or whatever the equivalent initials in the US are) - it says BEng

You are correct. But the programs that are offered online tend not to be offered in person. They are slightly different but still distinguishable in the sense that if I google that degree I will find it was only available online.

bobbyy gee

House prices will depend on unemployment and if covid takes off again this winter cheap mortgages are keeping prices high the asking price and what houses are selling for are different as per property price register is selling for copy and paste
https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&amp;Start=1&amp;Query=[dt_execution_date]>=01/08/2020 AND [dt_execution_date]<01/9/2020 AND [dc_county]=Dublin&amp;County=Dublin&amp;Year=2020&amp;StartMonth=08&amp;EndMonth=08&amp;Address=

ChewBerecca

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Half of covid 19 mortgage breaks still active. That cant last indefinitely. Hard to see how current property prices can be maintained or increase over next year or 2.

Means very little. Those mortgages, plus interest building over the last 6 months, will have to be paid back eventually and its new/second mortgages which dictate house prices. If Joe Bloggs isn't able to pay his mortgage, he's not out there looking to relocate.

The banks make their profits on mortgages out there being paid, if 1 mortgage is on hold then approving 2 more similar new ones (which will be paid back) will net them a profit. The banks will be eager to give mortgages to people who haven't been impacted by the coronavirus to get the lost interest payments back in.

House prices are like CAO points, if demand is there they won't be dropping until more supply is brought.

Geuze

Deleted User wrote: »

I’ve already seen it. Tried to buy a small place in Sligo and it was bid 40% over asking and out of my reach (an asking price which before COVID would have been a fair price)

Edit: a rural property, not Sligo town

I'm genuinely surprised by this.

Beigepaint

ChewBerecca wrote: »

Means very little. Those mortgages, plus interest building over the last 6 months, will have to be paid back eventually and its new/second mortgages which dictate house prices. If Joe Bloggs isn't able to pay his mortgage, he's not out there looking to relocate.

The banks make their profits on mortgages out there being paid, if 1 mortgage is on hold then approving 2 more similar new ones (which will be paid back) will net them a profit. The banks will be eager to give mortgages to people who haven't been impacted by the coronavirus to get the lost interest payments back in.

House prices are like CAO points, if demand is there they won't be dropping until more supply is brought.

And remember, in this country, you only have to get a mortgage, you don’t have to pay it.

salonfire

John Hutton wrote: »

I think the next pay agreement will be an "as you were" one (significant pay increases were expected).



I also expect a big push for early retirements and probably a hiring freeze.



I can't see the government being able to withhold increments or cut the pay of nurses, teachers, Garda etc. Could you imagine?



This recession is markedly different than the last one where there was a lot of enmity for the public sector. Unions (Forsa) are also far stronger and more determined.



The public sector have really pulled out all the stops for this one and in no way can they be blamed for the recession as they were (unfairly) the last time. Across the board the PS and CS have pulled out all the stops and done really hard work in difficult circumstances.

This means nothing. They do a day's work no different to anyone else.

Recessions always mean more people and students look for public sector jobs. There's plenty to replace them if those who work there don't feel they are valued enough.

Assetbacked

Hulk Hands wrote: »

This. By the US definition of the word also, we're bang in a recession. It's just pedants who are arguing it. Every knows what's being referred to, the Covid induced downturn in the economy

There is a massive demand shock in this recession, which applies to our housing needs as a country too. This is why the talk of undersupply by no means guarantees property prices are protected, in fact I would say that the ESRI soft landing talk of 15% drops is a decent estimate for the next 18 months.

Gramsci Babeuf

I work in the construction industry and we have never been busier. Logic has been turned on its head. It may well be a recession, but it sure as hell doesnt feel like one.
I don't know if it is pent up demand, a lack of supply or just the last throw of the dice. All I can say is that the trades have never been busier. There literally isnt enough tradesmen to cope with the amount of work.

hmmm

It's a very difficult time to predict house prices, there are good arguments in both directions.

I think after the initial euphoria (for some) about WFH, a bit of realism is creeping in. Companies are working well remotely, but they are relying on relationships built in the office.

The future for WFH I think is that staff will be located within reach of their office, and will gather in-person with their teams occasionally. For many that will mean almost permanent WFH, but won't mean you can move to a different country or head off down the country. You'll also want to be close to the action in case of a job loss. It'll mean a big hit to commercial property. In Dublin specifically I can see people moving out of the city centre to the nicer suburbs or areas around Dublin which offer good leisure amenities (e.g. sea, mountains, pubs/cafes) or schools. I suspect parts of Wicklow will be in big demand. The city centre will become younger.

The reduction in the numbers working in the city centre are bad news for city centre businesses, particularly pubs & restaurants. Some of that activity will partly shift to neighbourhood centres as people who are WFH will want places to go for lunch & after work.

If I was to guess where prices go, I'd say everywhere is going to see a slight increase in the short term as people rush to use their mortgage approvals, then a quiet period, prices dropping or remaining the same in the city centre, prices increasing generally in the nicer suburbs, big increase in houses just outside Dublin. This all assumes that we see a vaccine next year, and better control of the virus in general.

antimatterx

Gramsci Babeuf wrote: »

I work in the construction industry and we have never been busier. Logic has been turned on its head. It may well be a recession, but it sure as hell doesnt feel like one.
I don't know if it is pent up demand, a lack of supply or just the last throw of the dice. All I can say is that the trades have never been busier. There literally isnt enough tradesmen to cope with the amount of work.

My dad is in landscaping and has said the exact same thing. The company has never had more money in the bank, more work to do, but not enough workers to get it all done. They have crews in-between sites to make progress on all there jobs.

People who apply for jobs, don't bother showing up for the first day etc.

John Hutton

salonfire wrote: »

This means nothing. They do a day's work no different to anyone else.

Recessions always mean more people and students look for public sector jobs. There's plenty to replace them if those who work there don't feel they are valued enough.

Why pick out a few words of a longer post and just comment on that when it is part of a discussion about what is to be expected in the next pay agreement? just to have a go? My point was that the last time there was a recession a lot of people (wrongly) blamed the CS - this wont happen this time because most people can see that the CS and PS have done a lot of good work. This is the context in which I made my point. You shouldn't need this explained to you.



But I disagree, the work of doctors, nurses, social workers, teachers etc. during this pandemic has been exemplary and I think most people recognize that - it would be very difficult for the govt to force through paycuts. (again, to return to the context of my post).



If history shows us anything it is likely there will be a hiring freeze which means those students are out of luck - public servants who took less pay than in the private sector in the good times to work in the CS/PS did so for many reasons, one among them was job and wage security.