The PGA Tour Thread

Pdoghue

Ah lads, I thought it was great watching it with the fans there. Injected a great atmosphere. Apparently the lad Spieth pointed at on 17 after sinking that long putt was a Borat impersonator who broke his chair and was later thrown out by security!

bren2001

Pdoghue wrote: »

Ah lads, I thought it was great watching it with the fans there. Injected a great atmosphere. Apparently the lad Spieth pointed at on 17 after sinking that long putt was a Borat impersonator who broke his chair and was later thrown out by security!

100%, I quite enjoyed watching golf with no fans but something always felt missing on the back 9 on a Sunday. The fans really added something for me at the WM Open. The cheer when Koepkas chip went in was great.

Deeper Blue

The eagle on 16 from Spieth today was unreal!

Hopefully he gets the win tomorrow

LuckyGent88

Hope pga featured group tonight is Joel Dahmen and Sung Kang. Dahmen hates him after he blatantly said Kang was a lying cheat after a drop incident a few years ago

Bill Ponderosa

Should be interesting, Spieth didn't get it done last week, pressure will be on tonight.

Dr. Bre

2 weeks in a row spieth in contention. Is it safe to say he’s back?

eagle eye

He just needs to show he can handle the pressure now.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

He was ranked outsider last week given he was tied with Schauffele going into the final round.
Good signs but no shame in not winning from there, Schauffele had far more pressure.
No win in 2 years while being one of the best on tour.

You can see improvements but Speiths swing is still leaving a lot to be desired.
I'd still have the field over him today even though the chasing pack isnt that strong.
I'm very pessimistic about him becoming a consistent Top 10 player again.

billy3sheets

Big mistake from Berger on 18 handed 2 shots to Spieth.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

billy3sheets wrote: »

Big mistake from Berger on 18 handed 2 shots to Spieth.

Precisely, Berger had 2 bogeys through the first 3 rounds. He played the best golf through the first 3 rounds before the mistake on the last yesterday.

fullstop

Just me that thought that looked a bit dodgy from Knox? Clearly grounded the club 3 times and the ball then moved. Tells the referee he grounded it once and the ball moved a few seconds later.

finglashoop

golf coverage is atrocious.

feels like 90% filler 10% golf shots

Mushy

fullstop wrote: »

Just me that thought that looked a bit dodgy from Knox? Clearly grounded the club 3 times and the ball then moved. Tells the referee he grounded it once and the ball moved a few seconds later.

Getting a penalty for i assume this now

fullstop

Mushy wrote: »

Getting a penalty for i assume this now

Yeah he did after they reviewed the tape.

Trampas

Speith could really struggle going forward from his performance last and this Sunday.

Shocking stuff

Lantern Jaw

Trampas wrote: »

Speith could really struggle going forward from his performance last and this Sunday.

Shocking stuff

Steadied up a bit now

Dr. Bre

Ouch lashley!

Mysterypunter

That Scottish idiot in the studio said Daniel Berger has Ian Poulter like belief, what a stupid comment from a complete cheerleader.

eagle eye

Berger certainly made up for yesterday on the 18th.

ridonkulous

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Ouch lashley!

I felt bad for him until he lashed out at the green. No time for that crap.

FixdePitchmark

Mysterypunter wrote: »

That Scottish idiot in the studio said Daniel Berger has Ian Poulter like belief, what a stupid comment from a complete cheerleader.

I don't mind him - but he speaks in awful repeated clichés all the time

Mysterypunter

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

I don't mind him - but he speaks in awful repeated clichall the time

He just tips up whoever is in front,2 weeks ago he was cheering for Europe's Alex Noren" after - 8 on day one, last week he was "This kid has it all" Xander Schuffle was leading at the time, this week he was Patrick Cantlay, Awarding him the title on Thursday after shooting - 10. Sky are good at awarding titles on a Friday or Saturday, Tommy Fleetwood won 10 tournaments last year, its a bit like the biggest joke of the lot, Mark Lawrenson predictions on the BBC website, Liverpool are unbeaten in 4 years.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

billy3sheets wrote: »

What a turnaround by Berger from the mess he made of 18 in the third round!
I had a few euro on him at 16/1 thanks to tips on Josh Antmann on Sky Sports. Both Antmann an Michael McEwan called it on his vodcast.

Same as myself, I subscribe to a PGA stats site and they had Berger at over double the probability of winning that was implied by the prices.

Zahra Stocky Chrysalis wrote: »

Precisely, Berger had 2 bogeys through the first 3 rounds. He played the best golf through the first 3 rounds before the mistake on the last yesterday.

As I mentioned yesterday 2 bogeys from the first 3 rounds prior to that hiccup on 18, he was always going to be in the mix on Sunday.

abarkie

Zahra Stocky Chrysalis wrote: »

Same as myself, I subscribe to a PGA stats site and they had Berger at over double the probability of winning that was implied by the prices.



As I mentioned yesterday 2 bogeys from the first 3 rounds prior to that hiccup on 18, he was always going to be in the mix on Sunday.

What stats website is that please?

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

abarkie wrote: »

What stats website is that please?

Apologies missed your question: https://datagolf.com/scratch-member

There wont be much difference between itself and the market pre-match but sometimes you can pick up some inplay discrepancies.

If you're interested in it from a gambling perspective, it barely beats the margin free market so not worth swearing by.

Last week I simply thought the market over-represented Speiths chances which the model agreed with while it was also intuitive to a lot of people.

It's probably best used as a sense check rather than anything to hang your hat on.
If it's an element of the game you're interested in, it might be worth the money for the month leading into the Masters for example.

OEP

Zahra Stocky Chrysalis wrote: »

Apologies missed your question: https://datagolf.com/scratch-member

There wont be much difference between itself and the market pre-match but sometimes you can pick up some inplay discrepancies.

If you're interested in it from a gambling perspective, it barely beats the margin free market so not worth swearing by.

Last week I simply thought the market over-represented Speiths chances which the model agreed with while it was also intuitive to a lot of people.

It's probably best used as a sense check rather than anything to hang your hat on.
If it's an element of the game you're interested in, it might be worth the money for the month leading into the Masters for example.

For the masters there was a guy that went through the whole field and reduced it to maybe 10 players that had a chance to win the masters. He'd go through the reasons why someone can't win it - rookie, too short, previous finishes etc. and base it on historical stats. It was always quite accurate

You'd obviously get most of the top players in the 10 remaining but there was always a few outsiders with high odds that were good for an e/w bet. I got Danny Willett the year he won. I can't remember it but if I find it I'll post it.

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

OEP wrote: »

For the masters there was a guy that went through the whole field and reduced it to maybe 10 players that had a chance to win the masters. He'd go through the reasons why someone can't win it - rookie, too short, previous finishes etc. and base it on historical stats. It was always quite accurate

You'd obviously get most of the top players in the 10 remaining but there was always a few outsiders with high odds that were good for an e/w bet. I got Danny Willett the year he won. I can't remember it but if I find it I'll post it.

Yeah, please do, funny, I had Willet that year too. I’m not into gambling but I enjoy the data side and find the markets as good sense checks against sports/politics models.

FWIW, generally rookies & seniors are excluded from golf models as the data on them is less robust and skews the models.
You’ll often see that their 3 balls aren’t priced and unless very much in contention late on their prices aren’t often available in play.

Perhaps Bubba will show something and win the Genesis again

OEP

Zahra Stocky Chrysalis wrote: »

Yeah, please do, funny, I had Willet that year too. I’m not into gambling but I enjoy the data side and find the markets as good sense checks against sports/politics models.

FWIW, generally rookies & seniors are excluded from golf models as the data on them is less robust and skews the models.
You’ll often see that their 3 balls aren’t priced and unless very much in contention late on their prices aren’t often available in play.

Perhaps Bubba will show something and win the Genesis again

Here it is and now I realise he's the guy from Hunt Analytics - makes sense!

https://www.golfwrx.com/640154/the-21-players-who-can-win-the-masters/

tyivpc5qjx0f2b

OEP wrote: »

Here it is and now I realise he's the guy from Hunt Analytics - makes sense!

https://www.golfwrx.com/640154/the-21-players-who-can-win-the-masters/

Cool, I don’t have Twitter but I’ll keep an eye on them

This makes sense from one of their guys: https://twitter.com/Richie3Jack/status/1361177731665440768?s=20

Also, he made the point Speith ranked last in missed fairways

slave1

Per charter, can all betting related posts be made in the Betting Thread only.
Thanks folks