The Jumpers are Coming 2020/2021

Pogue eile

akelly02 wrote: »

moores are drooling over goshen running this weekend

i hope he runs and this hype can end once and for all

but the chances are he will not scope well and be pulled again , you heard it here first !!!

Hopefully they are a little more upfront and honest than Mr. Henderson was last week, that's all we can ask for really.

Pogue eile

IAMAMORON wrote: »

You can see where all the value has gone for punters also. 15 years ago both novice chases would have a heap of contenders. Now the 3 best ones get to pick which one they would like to run in, sure half the time they could be from the same yard.

Most small trainers don't even bother, they are looking to get one thrown in at Stratford, they watch the rest on the tellly and don't have to deal with the crowds. They can take the barge back up to town after. Cute enough.

You are contradicting yourself here again!

Surely if the quality is diluted by having more races - not going to argue against that - then it offers the smaller trainer a greater chance at a piece of the pie?

I am struggling to see the logic behind what you are saying?

IAMAMORON

Pogue eile wrote: »

You are contradicting yourself here again!

Surely if the quality is diluted by having more races - not going to argue against that - then it offers the smaller trainer a greater chance at a piece of the pie?

I am struggling to see the logic behind what you are saying?

Ah here I don't need a lesson in weighted averages.

The fact is that there are less than 10 maybe 15 trainers that get the best horsies. We can fight over the scraps after that.

That Marsh Plate is aptly named - The Plate. Nothing has ever come out of it.

All the best novices go Arkle or RSA. The plate is for the yellow bellies afraid of taking the best ones on. I would say it is nearly harder to win a handicap at the Festival than the Plate. Joke of a race.

Just Saying.

akelly02

Pogue eile wrote: »

Hopefully they are a little more upfront and honest than Mr. Henderson was last week, that's all we can ask for really.

they assured us he would be running at ascot 2 weeks ago , then a no show,

then didnt want to take on epatante

Pogue eile

akelly02 wrote: »

they assured us he would be running at ascot 2 weeks ago , then a no show,

then didnt want to take on epatante

It was a little more than 2 weeks ago and Goshen was announced as a non runner on the Wednesday, not even comparable to whiskey nose telling all and sundry that the horse was never as well and was really looking forward to the race and was race fit!

Pogue eile

IAMAMORON wrote: »

The fact is that there are less than 10 maybe 15 trainers that get the best horsies. We can fight over the scraps after that.


Just Saying.

And what has that got to do with there being three novice chases as opposed to two?

You are all over the shop man, have you been at the drinks cabinet in seven barrows?

Just asking.

akelly02

Pogue eile wrote: »

It was a little more than 2 weeks ago and Goshen was announced as a non runner on the Wednesday, not even comparable to whiskey nose telling all and sundry that the horse was never as well and was really looking forward to the race and was race fit!

it makes no difference to me , just the sooner hes out and is bet , the sooner the hype will end

i can guarantee you that horse will not achieve a quarter as much as sire de grugy, and the moores are saying this lad is way way better

time will tell !

Pogue eile

akelly02 wrote: »

it makes no difference to me , just the sooner hes out and is bet , the sooner the hype will end

i can guarantee you that horse will not achieve a quarter as much as sire de grugy, and the moores are saying this lad is way way better

time will tell !

I am a believer and very much on the opposite side of the fence but yeah it will be great to find out, if he is a no show again this weekend then I would be extremely worried.

I will add as well that I have zero faith in the Moore's and not sure they would know what to do with a good one.

akelly02

Pogue eile wrote: »

I am a believer and very much on the opposite side of the fence but yeah it will be great to find out, if he is a no show again this weekend then I would be extremely worried.

I will add as well that I have zero faith in the Moore's and not sure they would know what to do with a good one.

he is either a freak or bang average , there is no inbetween!!!!

Pogue eile

akelly02 wrote: »

he is either a freak or bang average , there is no inbetween!!!!

The ratings and times I have recorded for him suggests that he is a freak, but I have been wrong before.

On my calculations he has the best juvenile ratings since Our Conor and only a length off Our Conor.

But incredibly I have Elliot's juvenile from last weekend ahead of both which is frightening, I keep looking for a reason or a mistake in the distances, the railings, the ground etc. but still the only explanation I have is that Zanahiyr is an absolute monster.

akelly02

Pogue eile wrote: »

The ratings and times I have recorded for him suggests that he is a freak, but I have been wrong before.

On my calculations he has the best juvenile ratings since Our Conor and only a length off Our Conor.

But incredibly I have Elliot's juvenile from last weekend ahead of both which is frightening, I keep looking for a reason or a mistake in the distances, the railings, the ground etc. but still the only explanation I have is that Zanahiyr is an absolute monster.

i dont look at times , even on same course , same ground etc

grand crus completed the feltham something like 6 seconds faster than kauto star did in his king george. less than 2 hours later, same track, trip , ground ....enough said

Pogue eile

akelly02 wrote: »

i dont look at times , even on same course , same ground etc

grand crus completed the feltham something like 6 seconds faster than kauto star did in his king george. less than 2 hours later, same track, trip , ground ....enough said

I haven't compared those races, but it is a little more nuanced than comparing race times. And certainly the official race times can not be trusted.

It was 2.8 secs on the official race times for Grand Crus v Kauto but as I say a very very big pinch of salt.

The other big caution is of course some horses produce on off performances that they never quite reach again for many reasons. But I am telling you now, If I am even half right, then 5/1 for the Triumph is like finding money in the street!

akelly02

Pogue eile wrote: »

I haven't compared those races, but it is a little more nuanced than comparing race times. And certainly the official race times can not be trusted.

It was 2.8 secs on the official race times for Grand Crus v Kauto but as I say a very very big pinch of salt.

The other big caution is of course some horses produce on off performances that they never quite reach again for many reasons. But I am telling you now, If I am even half right, then 5/1 for the Triumph is like finding money in the street!

it would be more believable for me that the triumph horse will win than goshen will tear apart a champion hurdle field

spuddiesal

Anniepowaa wrote: »

the write up for shishkin and abacadabras is nearly word for word the same in the supreme and we all seen what aspire tower did to him , shishkin may be good but he is not the next altior

Do you think Aspire Tower beats Abracadbras if they meet at xmas?

Anniepowaa

spuddiesal wrote: »

Do you think Aspire Tower beats Abracadbras if they meet at xmas?

Without a doubt

spuddiesal

Anniepowaa wrote: »

Without a doubt

Is it that you think Abra is no good or Aspire tower is good?

hawaii501

Can't wait to see Goshen out, hopefully runs this weekend. It won't be 10s anyway for the champ hurdle if it does run

PM me nudes

No, he'll be 20s :pac:

Coneygree

Goshen's jumping is still a huge question mark for me, it was why I had a line through him for the Triumph. Now he actually jumped well enough that day and 99 times out of 100 he doesn't catch his shoes together but he'd still need to smarten up a lot, beast of a horse or not.

What’s Moore's angle with running him on the flat twice though? Once I can get on board with but to go again after bombing so bad was odd. It'd be some ****housery if he's got a monster and he's just looking to get a tastier price, saying that his price hasn't gotten much better at all.

I'm desperately looking for something to appear and blow open the division though. Aba and Saint Roi I'm not so sure about as of now. Saldier could be anything but I'd like to bloody see him run.

The Hoarse Whisperer

With Altior getting pulled at the weekend and I know the official reason was the ground but it got me thinking about the Champion Chase. So i asked about Shiskin in my local bookies today. So after a long spiel where the guy at the other end of the phone told the cashier to tell me that Shishkin is being groomed for the Arkle, is the short priced favourite there and I wont get my money back if he doesnt run in the CC eventually I get quoted 7 to 1. Seven to bloody one! He couldnt possibly run, could he?

akelly02

The Hoarse Whisperer wrote: »

With Altior getting pulled at the weekend and I know the official reason was the ground but it got me thinking about the Champion Chase. So i asked about Shiskin in my local bookies today. So after a long spiel where the guy at the other end of the phone told the cashier to tell me that Shishkin is being groomed for the Arkle, is the short priced favourite there and I wont get my money back if he doesnt run in the CC eventually I get quoted 7 to 1. Seven to bloody one! He couldnt possibly run, could he?

no.

akelly02

Coneygree wrote: »

Goshen's jumping is still a huge question mark for me, it was why I had a line through him for the Triumph. Now he actually jumped well enough that day and 99 times out of 100 he doesn't catch his shoes together but he'd still need to smarten up a lot, beast of a horse or not.

What’s Moore's angle with running him on the flat twice though? Once I can get on board with but to go again after bombing so bad was odd. It'd be some ****housery if he's got a monster and he's just looking to get a tastier price, saying that his price hasn't gotten much better at all.

I'm desperately looking for something to appear and blow open the division though. Aba and Saint Roi I'm not so sure about as of now. Saldier could be anything but I'd like to bloody see him run.

has epatante not blown open the division?

RivetingRoger

Abacadabras is second only to Epatante in this division
Aspire Tower, Saint Roi etc will NOT beat him up the hill in March
It will not happen
Aba, if they get him right for it is the only CH horse with a prayer of beating the mare
The form with Envoi and Shishkin is rock solid
None of the rest of them have anything like it in their repertoire

Anniepowaa

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Abacadabras is second only to Epatante in this division
Aspire Tower, Saint Roi etc will NOT beat him up the hill in March
It will not happen
Aba, if they get him right for it is the only CH horse with a prayer of beating the mare
The form with Envoi and Shishkin is rock solid
None of the rest of them have anything like it in their repertoire

ohh for god sake saint roi would have beat him the other day if not for everything under the sun going wrong

akelly02

goshen 5/2 is surely a gift from heaven with all the followers he has??

surely a machine like this should be 4/7 or thereabouts?

ill have sceau royale anyway . we will get a good line on the form with him, you can set your clock by him these days.

RivetingRoger

Anniepowaa wrote: »

ohh for god sake saint roi would have beat him the other day if not for everything under the sun going wrong

Are you still here..............:rolleyes:

akelly02

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Are you still here..............:rolleyes:

roger he does have a point....run that race another 10 times and saint roi wins most of them id say

RivetingRoger

akelly02 wrote: »

roger he does have a point....run that race another 10 times and saint roi wins most of them id say

Dunno how anyone see's that
The race wasn't run to suit either of them, one coped, the other didn't
Read what EOL said about the race in the RP, race went completely against the plan for Abacadabras
Everyone cribbed that he couldn't/wouldn't win a battle if another horse got up to him, but he did!
Abacadabras is a top class horse who will prove so in years to come. His form with Envoi Allan and Shishkin is in the book, its there for all to see.

What has Saint Roi done??? Won a feckin County Hurdle!!!
People getting way too excited about a horse who has done very little to warrant the hype and people cribbing the horse who has been there and done it

Regardless, Epatante beats both

akelly02

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Dunno how anyone see's that
The race wasn't run to suit either of them, one coped, the other didn't
Read what EOL said about the race in the RP, race went completely against the plan for Abacadabras
Everyone cribbed that he couldn't/wouldn't win a battle if another horse got up to him, but he did!
Abacadabras is a top class horse who will prove so in years to come. His form with Envoi Allan and Shishkin is in the book, its there for all to see.

What has Saint Roi done??? Won a feckin County Hurdle!!!
People getting way too excited about a horse who has done very little to warrant the hype and people cribbing the horse who has been there and done it

Regardless, Epatante beats both

roger

i dont know what race you were looking at, but aba was looking for ways to lose that race , he had a definate advantage at the last, cour sublime was his nearest challenger, and he was clinging on at the end!!

pulling himself up once hitting the front is not a good trait for a champion hurdle horse

Brock Turnpike

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Abacadabras is second only to Epatante in this division
Aspire Tower, Saint Roi etc will NOT beat him up the hill in March
It will not happen
Aba, if they get him right for it is the only CH horse with a prayer of beating the mare
The form with Envoi and Shishkin is rock solid
None of the rest of them have anything like it in their repertoire

I think you are dismissing Aspire Tower a bit too easily. If he jumps well on the day, he's in with a chance.

spuddiesal

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Dunno how anyone see's that
The race wasn't run to suit either of them, one coped, the other didn't
Read what EOL said about the race in the RP, race went completely against the plan for Abacadabras
Everyone cribbed that he couldn't/wouldn't win a battle if another horse got up to him, but he did!
Abacadabras is a top class horse who will prove so in years to come. His form with Envoi Allan and Shishkin is in the book, its there for all to see.

What has Saint Roi done??? Won a feckin County Hurdle!!!
People getting way too excited about a horse who has done very little to warrant the hype and people cribbing the horse who has been there and done it

Regardless, Epatante beats both

I agree that Abracadbras is 2nd to Epatante. Dunno how anyone can say Aspire tower defiantly beats Abra at Xmas. Abra had a 6lb penalty and was his first run of the season. You can’t trust Aspire after last years performances and especially as a 4 year old. With a better ride against Envoi Allen in the royal bond Abra could have got much closer to him. Saint roi is a danger but has a lot to learn.
Siskin ran into an awful lot of trouble in the supreme. I think he is the real deal (unfortunately)

IAMAMORON

Convinced these threads are full of professional layers.

I talk a fair amount of shight, but some of the drivel here is excruciating.

You'se know who you are.

akelly02

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Convinced these threads are full of professional layers.

I talk a fair amount of shight, but some of the drivel here is excruciating.

You'se know who you are.

me

Brock Turnpike

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Convinced these threads are full of professional layers.

I talk a fair amount of shight, but some of the drivel here is excruciating.

You'se know who you are.

Cooking from you, that is some statement.

Brock Turnpike

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Convinced these threads are full of professional layers.

I talk a fair amount of shight, but some of the drivel here is excruciating.

You'se know who you are.

Coming from you, that is some statement.

carq

I am team Saint Roi too.
It was clearly a poor ride on saint roi in that race.
Funny how the beaten horse is a shorter price than the winner for the champ hurdle.

RivetingRoger

Saint Roi has built up this fan club based on very very little
I have a feeling his being an Irish JP horse has a lot to do with it
I will take much pleasure in March, or Christmas, slagging the bolocks off the lot of ye when Aba beats him, AGAIN, NTO!

NaiveMelodies

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Saint Roi has built up this fan club based on very very little
I have a feeling his being an Irish JP horse has a lot to do with it
I will take much pleasure in March, or Christmas, slagging the bolocks off the lot of ye when Aba beats him, AGAIN, NTO!

He won the County Hurdle on the absolute snaff as a novice.
The horse who came second that day hacked up on his next two outings, one of which was the Galway Hurdle.

This is not, under any circumstances, 'very very little'.

Morgans

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

He won the County Hurdle on the absolute snaff as a novice.
The horse who came second that day hacked up on his next two outings, one of which was the Galway Hurdle.

This is not, under any circumstances, 'very very little'.

Stop talking sense, we don't like that round here.

RivetingRoger

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

He won the County Hurdle on the absolute snaff as a novice.
The horse who came second that day hacked up on his next two outings, one of which was the Galway Hurdle.

This is not, under any circumstances, 'very very little'.

I might be a little hyperbolic on this one

But...I don't think his form comes close to what Aba has done in the last 15 months

Pogue eile

Ah this is great craic and I guess the last two pages are great examples of why we all love this sport, it is until otherwise conclusively proven, a game of opinions, I have long ago come to the conclusion that there are no wrong or stupid views - if we all knew everything and were right all the time we would be very wealthy and wouldn't be bothered arguing online!

None of the above applies to IAMAMORON who is clearly wrong about everything ....just sayin!

My tuppence on the Champion Hurdle for what its worth;

Epatante - Goshen - Saint Roi - Abacadabras - Honeysuckle in that order. There is however considerable doubt about at least two of those making it there. Take out the favourite and it is wide open.

I have backed Epatante in a few doubles with Envoi and trebles with Paisley Park and I also couldnt resist the Paddy Power special of Goshen to go unbeaten for the year @ 40/1 which I think is a fair price for a horse all going well will only run three times, not excluding the fact that the trainer is likely to do anything.

longshotvalue

Not a mention of Sharjah, he has much better form that any of the Novices, and one thing learned over the years, CH form means more than anything. Ran really well last year on soft ground, if it turns up decent ground, he wont be far away.


Problem is he is inconsistent, but on a going day is the 2nd best hurdler around.

Pogue eile

aidankkk wrote: »

Not a mention of Sharjah, he has much better form that any of the Novices, and one thing learned over the years, CH form means more than anything. Ran really well last year on soft ground, if it turns up decent ground, he wont be far away.


Problem is he is inconsistent, but on a going day is the 2nd best hurdler around.

Firstly they were going to go Novice Chasing, they they were going to campaign him on the flat, but were scratched for varying reasons so he goes the Champion Hurdle route again, almost by default.

Last years race he ran to place, dropped out the back and passed beaten horses up the hill, finished second but never ever looked like winning, will be another Theatreworld at best.

abarkie

Rabbit Redux wrote: »

The Marsh/JLT is just another excuse for decent novices to dodge each other. In the old days, Envoi Allen and Shishkin would probably be in line to clash with each other in the Arkle. Now they can take different routes. Not blaming connections as the alternatives are there to be taken advantage of, but from a purist's point of view these relatively new races are contradicting the very point of the Cheltenham Festival.

Exactly the dilution to get from 3 days to 4 days by opening up opportunities and allowing this to happen

Stifles competition

longshotvalue

abarkie wrote: »

Exactly the dilution to get from 3 days to 4 days by opening up opportunities and allowing this to happen

Stifles competition

Yeah but there is far too much difference in 2 miles and 3 miles around cheltenham ( its like a different sport) . Intermediate trips are needed for novices, who want to step up the following year.



Its not all setup purely for us to enjoy it. Marsh has been a great race.


Im all for 4 days. (That said they should have kept the novice handicap and lost the Kim Muir)

RivetingRoger

Couldn't have Sharjah at all Aidan
Ran an absolute stinker in Galway subsequently
Reminds me a lot of limini
Lots of talent but no consistency
Couldn't have him at all

Must be all those seconds in Dundalk...................

Pogue eile

aidankkk wrote: »

Yeah but there is far too much difference in 2 miles and 3 miles around cheltenham ( its like a different sport) . Intermediate trips are needed for novices, who want to step up the following year.

Absolutely, I mean if you have a 2m 4 championship race, then it seems pretty logical to have a novice race over the same distance.

Shemale

RivetingRoger wrote: »

I might be a little hyperbolic hyperbolix on this one

But...I don't think his form comes close to what Aba has done in the last 15 months

FYP

maximo31

Am I imagining it or is there a lot more fences being omitted due to low sun this year?
Is this a jockey request or course decision?

RivetingRoger

maximo31 wrote: »

Am I imagining it or is there a lot more fences being omitted due to low sun this year?
Is this a jockey request or course decision?

Absolutely ruining the game