Who thinks Trump will win?

Foxtrol

Tony EH wrote: »

TBH, these things are usually a load of old baloney Mike.

The only real poll that matters is when voters cast their votes on election day...

...and even then the EC might swing it.

You're right about the poll that matters but those projections give decent insight. A 20% chance is still a good chance an event will occur, though it is the same as the likelihood of Biden winning by near historic margins

Henry Ford III

I fear he'll be re-elected.

mcmoustache

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Fox is often spoken about here with derision. If a user posts one of news report clips it will often be sneered and dismissed off as if it couldn't possibly have anything to offer and the inference of that being done all the time is that they are 100% biased.

It depends. There's a difference between a report by one of their news people and that Soviet-style shíte that you get with their evening talking heads. Most people understand the difference.

mcmoustache

Foxtrol wrote: »

You're right about the poll that matters but those projections give decent insight. A 20% chance is still a good chance an event will occur, though it is the same as the likelihood of Biden winning by near historic margins

It's not far off the probability of rolling a 6 after throwing a die. It happens all the time.

Henry Ford III

Henry Ford III wrote: »

I fear he'll be re-elected.

I absolutely think he will too. I follow it closely, my partner being from a swing state. Biden does not give people a reason to vote for him. Even my partners family (4 girls and a single mum, obviously Democrats) watched the debate in despair and disappointment. Biden is back to the same old politics, which we have moved on from now, whether we like it or not. Being 'not Trump' will not be enough to win IMO

Foxtrol

Foxtrol wrote: »

You're right about the poll that matters but those projections give decent insight. A 20% chance is still a good chance an event will occur, though it is the same as the likelihood of Biden winning by near historic margins

They also gave Trump the best chance of winning on the election day.

Tell me how

Henry Ford III wrote: »

I fear he'll be re-elected.

Most people fear that.
I too as much as anyone, and right now, I don't think he will be.

Early in the year, I figured he would definitely be re-elected but with Covid and his position and role on BLM I think he alienated a lot of people. Bear in mind, he didn't get the popular vote in 16 when no there was no evidence of his ineptitude in elected office.

I was still hesitant because I feared that if he had a big performance in the debates that it would motivate enough people to think he was the 'strong' leader that the country needed or that Biden was past it. The first debate was the reverse of that in fact so I'm feeling more confident, but still don't think it is a done deal because the electorate here is susceptible to breaking news irrespective of the truth in it.

Overheal

Foxtrol wrote: »

GOP panicking badly now. They'll obviously continue to pull more and more stunts like this as the election nears (on top of their years of trying to suppress the vote).

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1311748967055622144?s=20

Excuse me but: what the F*CK?

mcmoustache

Overheal wrote: »

Excuse me but: what the F*CK?

Well, I mean, if it looks like you're going to lose a vote, it makes sense to stop people voting.

Tell me how

Deleted User wrote: »

They also gave Trump the best chance of winning on the election day.

Tell me how wrote: »

Most people fear that.
I too as much as anyone, and right now, I don't think he will be.

Early in the year, I figured he would definitely be re-elected but with Covid and his position and role on BLM I think he alienated a lot of people. Bear in mind, he didn't get the popular vote in 16 when no there was no evidence of his ineptitude in elected office.

I was still hesitant because I feared that if he had a big performance in the debates that it would motivate enough people to think he was the 'strong' leader that the country needed or that Biden was past it. The first debate was the reverse of that in fact so I'm feeling more confident, but still don't think it is a done deal because the electorate here is susceptible to breaking news irrespective of the truth in it.

And then I read this. :eek::eek:

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1311764926227193857

Overheal

mcmoustache wrote: »

Well, I mean, if it looks like you're going to lose a vote, it makes sense to stop people voting.

I mean how do they expect that to be seen as anything but flagrant voter suppression?

Silentcorner

Lads ye are derranged....that is Gemma O'Doherty territory!!! A coup d'etat...I've heard it all now.

I'd say something if Trump was insisting on mail in voting...or adding three extra conservative judges to the supreme court, or suggesting the removal of the electoral college....or encouraging his supporters to rip down statues, riot in the streets, undermine the police authorities, but he is not, he is not doing any of those things.

This is fivethirtyeight front page this evening...notice anything?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-chances-are-dwindling-that-could-make-him-dangerous/

How anyone who engages in this type of rhetoric can be trusted to be objective is a mystery to me...

mcmoustache

Overheal wrote: »

I mean how do they expect that to be seen as anything but flagrant voter suppression?

Their openness about it says a lot. Normally they'd be a bit more subtle about it. I would expect this to be litigated.

Oranage2

Can't see Trump losing. Biden although just a few years older than Trump seems much older. He also represents the career politician everyone in America is fed up with. It will be close but I can see Trump winning it.

Tell me how

Oranage2 wrote: »

Can't see Trump losing. Biden although just a few years older than Trump seems much older. He also represents the career politician everyone in America is fed up with. It will be close but I can see Trump winning it.

Word on the ground is people are fed up with the sh*tshow they have been watching for the last 4 years. Time will tell just how fed up. Hopefully enough to bring about change.

Overheal

mcmoustache wrote: »

Their openness about it says a lot. Normally they'd be a bit more subtle about it. I would expect this to be litigated.

That is likely part of the objective.

Fortunately, Early Voting was extended by Abbot in July.

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-voting-2020/

It starts October 13, 2020.

It's a Tuesday

Silentcorner

Tell me how wrote: »

Word on the ground is people are fed up with the sh*tshow they have been watching for the last 4 years. Time will tell just how fed up. Hopefully enough to bring about change.

Do you think the US is currently under a coup d'etat?

Overheal

Silentcorner wrote: »

Do you think the US is currently under a coup d'etat?

I think that would be a really interesting thread for someone to start in Conspiracy Theories.

circular flexing

First opinion poll since the debates has Biden up 13 points nationwide. RCP average is Biden +7.2 which is 4 points up on where Clinton was at this time.

Tell me how

Silentcorner wrote: »

Do you think the US is currently under a coup d'etat?

No. Not at that level yet.

But definitely forces are at play both externally and internally (and within Government) to illegally impact the election.

tayto lover

Trump will probably win because there seems to be more lunatics than sane people in the US.

TexasTornado

tayto lover wrote: »

Trump will probably win because there seems to be more lunatics than sane people in the US.

As an American who now lives in Ireland i can confirm this. Unfortunately i think a lot of people are in for a shock in November again.

Tell me how

TexasTornado wrote: »

As an American who now lives in Ireland i can confirm this. Unfortunately i think a lot of people are in for a shock in November again.

As an Irish person who lives in America, I hope you are wrong. :eek:

Overheal

Get this: the Presidential Commission on Law Enforcement violated the law.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/crime-law/2020/10/01/judge-rules-federal-law-enforcement-commission-violates-law-orders-work-stopped-attorney-general-prepares-issue-report/

The commission also did not file a charter, post public notice of its meetings or open them to the public, so even though it has already sent its draft report and recommendations to Barr for release later this month, the judge prohibited Barr from releasing a final report.

The 18-member commission was composed entirely of state and federal law enforcement officials, with no one from the civil rights, criminal defense, social work, religious or academic fields. Members were sworn in on Jan. 22, and then heard months of testimony by teleconference from experts in a variety of police, prosecutorial and social fields. The commission also formed 15 working groups, with more than 100 members, to draft sections of the report focusing on topics such as “Reduction of Crime,” “Respect for Law Enforcement,” “Data and Reporting" and “Homeland Security.”

Attorney General Barr launches presidential commission on law enforcement

The Federal Advisory Committee Act requires that a committee’s membership be “fairly balanced in terms of the points of view represented and the functions to be performed,” so that its recommendations “will not be inappropriately influenced by the appointing authority.” The working groups were also largely tied to policing, with only five of the 112 members not from law enforcement. After the suit was filed, the speakers who testified before the commission were more diverse in professional backgrounds.

Police groups lobbied Congress for years to form a commission that would take a comprehensive look at improving American policing, as a similar panel did in the 1960s, to devise new ways to fight crime and use technology to improve policing. When various bills stalled in Congress, Trump signed an executive order last October creating the group, with the president acknowledging the assistance of the Fraternal Order of Police and the International Association of Chiefs of Police in launching the project.

The law also requires that advisory committee meetings be open to the public, with notice posted in the Federal Register, along with a charter for the committee. The commission did not post a charter or meeting notices in the register, but did send out news releases announcing the virtual meetings as well as posting transcripts and recordings of the meetings. Reporters and others could dial in and listen to the teleconferences. A meeting which Barr held in June with the commission, on the same day Trump signed an executive order on police reform, was not announced and the Justice Department declined to release a transcript or recording.

Trump’s order called for the commission to submit its report and recommendations to the attorney general, who was then required to send his final report to the president by Oct. 28. The Justice Department planned to release it at the International Association of Chiefs of Police convention in late October, according to an email in the court file. Now, the report and the commission’s months of work are in limbo.

Trump and the Attorney General of the United States conspired to violate the law in order to craft an 'October Surprise.'

This is impeachable.

Outlaw Pete

Tell me how wrote: »

And then I read this. :eek::eek:

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1311764926227193857

What Planet are these people on. Facebook sure as hell ain't doing anything to benefit Trump.


https://twitter.com/joshdcaplan/status/1311763867593306112

Tell me how

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

What Planet are these people on. Facebook sure as hell ain't doing anything to benefit Trump.

Not according to a Facebook executive.

Facebook ad campaign helped Donald Trump win election, claims executive

And more on this

How Russian Facebook Ads Divided and Targeted US Voters Before the 2016 Election

mcmoustache

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

What Planet are these people on. Facebook sure as hell ain't doing anything to benefit Trump.


https://twitter.com/joshdcaplan/status/1311763867593306112

Here is today's daily top 10 linked stuff on facebook. Every day looks like this. I know that people who use facebook for their news tend towards the less educated demographic but this is ridiculous.



https://twitter.com/FacebooksTop10/status/1311680645681143808

MeMen2_MoRi_

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

What Planet are these people on. Facebook sure as hell ain't doing anything to benefit Trump.


https://twitter.com/joshdcaplan/status/1311763867593306112

Yeah, the trump campaign didn't use 3.5 million peoples Facebook info to swing the election??

Depress the black vote, inflate the white vote???

Tell me how

Tell me how wrote: »

Word on the ground is people are fed up with the sh*tshow they have been watching for the last 4 years. Time will tell just how fed up. Hopefully enough to bring about change.

That’s true. But they need to feel hay they are voting FOR something, not just for the absence of something. And certainly my democrat friends and family in Michigan see little positive in Biden.

Winterrr

Trump lied at the debate when he claimed Biden calls African American males super predators.
In fact it was hillary what said it.
It's all there on video.
Embarrassing for trump but his fans won't care