Who thinks Trump will win?

BringBackMick · 10-10-2020 9:51am

Trump will win this, again he'll lose popular vote but will win crucial swing states.

km991148 · 10-10-2020 10:03am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I voted FG as they put more money in my pocket, it was that simple. I'd assume that 56% will do the same.

I don't think you can compare Irish society with American at the moment.

But regardless, that just goes in to illustrate the point further - being focused on either feeling wealthier or slightly more financially better off (they themselves aren't even equatable)

What's the point in having one or two percent more cash in your pocket if your society is turning to sh!t?

Cody montana · 10-10-2020 10:10am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Latest gallop polls says 56% of voters feel wealthier now than they did last election time...

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1314402920474042371?s=20

“Facts Don’t Care About Your Feelings”

gmisk · 10-10-2020 10:15am

BringBackMick wrote: »

Trump will win this, again he'll lose popular vote but will win crucial swing states.

Well you might as well pile in if you believe that, great odds atm.

drunkmonkey · 10-10-2020 10:21am

km991148 wrote: »

I don't think you can compare Irish society with American at the moment.

But regardless, that just goes in to illustrate the point further - being focused on either feeling wealthier or slightly more financially better off (they themselves aren't even equatable)

What's the point in having one or two percent more cash in your pocket if your society is turning to sh!t?

It's turning to crap because of the Democrats from what i'm seeing they have not stopped trying to take him down from day one, Pelosi was the icing on cake the other day, I think the average person can see through that and it paints a very a very unhinged and frightened picture of the Democrats right now. She might as well admitted Biden is going to lose, she doesn't have confidence they can take him out at the ballot box.

km991148 · 10-10-2020 10:22am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's turning to crap because of the Democrats from what i'm seeing they have not stopped trying to take him down from day one, Pelosi was the icing on cake the other day, I think the average person can see through that and it paints a very a very unhinged and frightened picture of the Democrats right now. She might as well admitted Biden is going to lose, she doesn't have confidence they can take him out at the ballot box.

Enjoy your day

Timberrrrrrrr · 10-10-2020 10:25am

gmisk wrote: »

Well you might as well pile in if you believe that, great odds atm.

Yup, if I was onto a "sure thing" like that then I would be selling everything of value I have and making some easy tax free money.

They never seem to be THAT sure though.

Quantum Erasure · 10-10-2020 10:27am

Cody montana wrote: »

“Facts Don’t Care About Your Feelings”

Election results do

drunkmonkey · 10-10-2020 10:39am

gmisk wrote: »

Well you might as well pile in if you believe that, great odds atm.

I piled in at today's price, should cover a couple of nights in Doonbeg for the inauguration party. Hope they supply the hats and kick out all journalists again like last time.

10-10-2020 10:41am

BringBackMick wrote: »

Trump will win this, again he'll lose popular vote but will win crucial swing states.

Which swing states are you predicting Trump will take?

MadYaker · 10-10-2020 10:42am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I piled in at today's price, should cover a couple of nights in Doonbeg for the inauguration party. Hope they supply the hats and kick out all journalists again like last time.

Post the slip

10-10-2020 10:44am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I piled in at today's price, should cover a couple of nights in Doonbeg for the inauguration party. Hope they supply the hats and kick out all journalists again like last time.

I'd love to see that docket.

Cody montana · 10-10-2020 10:47am

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

Election results do

Yes and it’s looking likely Biden will win.

drunkmonkey · 10-10-2020 10:50am

MadYaker wrote: »

Post the slip

You can wait until November to see it:p

Restassured it's on and will easily cover a couple of nights with Dinner and Drinks.

cnocbui · 10-10-2020 10:53am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's turning to crap because of the Democrats from what i'm seeing they have not stopped trying to take him down from day one, Pelosi was the icing on cake the other day, I think the average person can see through that and it paints a very a very unhinged and frightened picture of the Democrats right now. She might as well admitted Biden is going to lose, she doesn't have confidence they can take him out at the ballot box.

Do you remember Bill Clinton's presidency? The republicans launched an avalanche of every contrived and underhanded thing they could think of to attack Clinton and remove him from office by hook and by crook. It was absolutely relentless. Trump has had it easy by comparrison. Clinton left the US with the largest budget surpuss the country ever had, then those neocons puppeteering that clown Bush spent every last cent of that surpluss and then some, leaving the US in near economic ruin, which Obama then spent his entire presidency trying to repair, and he managed it to the point Trump was crowing about how great the stock market was doing minutes after he was in office and thumping his chest and bragging about what a great job he had done compared to Obama, when really it was just economic momentum from Obamas good works.

Now another republican president has f*cked it up yet again. It's like a sine wave - Democrat president runs the country in a responsible manner and then a Republican one comes in and eats all the sweets in the jar and smashes the piggy bank to go and hand out alms to some millitay, oil or other old-wealth industry.

How Americans can be so blind to this cycle is beyond my ken.

Lolle06 · 10-10-2020 10:55am

Hand in Your Pants wrote: »

If there was anything really dodgy on Trump they would have dug it up the first time around. All of the money and brainpower being thrown at discrediting Trump during the last election and all they could dig up was some ugly locker room talk. With all of the Anthony Weiners doing the rounds on the democrat circuit, Americans will see through the attempts to defame Trump.

If it would be that simple to proof Mafia- style business practices, there wouldn’t be any Mafia type organisations around.
Trump always relied on his team of lawyers.
He would have gotten away with murder. Now more so than ever before.

drunkmonkey · 10-10-2020 10:59am

S&P 500 is pretty accurate at predicting the Next US President, it's correct 83% of the time and all the indicators are in Trump's favor.

Timberrrrrrrr · 10-10-2020 10:59am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You can wait until November to see it:p

Restassured it's on and will easily cover a couple of nights with Dinner and Drinks.

Trump loses an we will never see you post here again, well...not under that account name.

drunkmonkey · 10-10-2020 11:07am

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Trump loses an we will never see you post here again, well...not under that account name.

When he wins I'll bring a bucket for your tears.

Lolle06 · 10-10-2020 11:10am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Latest gallop polls says 56% of voters feel wealthier now than they did last election time...

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1314402920474042371?s=20

Is there a link to that poll?
I could only find this poll:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/317765/satisfaction-among-americans-remains-nine-year-low.aspx

10-10-2020 11:10am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

S&P 500 is pretty accurate at predicting the Next US President, it's correct 83% of the time and all the indicators are in Trump's favor.

Meanwhile Wall Street are backing Biden.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/09/investing/bank-earnings-preview/index.html

km991148 · 10-10-2020 11:18am

Lolle06 wrote: »

Is there a link to that poll?
I could only find this poll:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/317765/satisfaction-among-americans-remains-nine-year-low.aspx

From here

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/321650/gallup-election-2020-coverage.aspx

It covers the period before the debates. Also when you look at it its around the percentage as most people polled at the same point in the election cycle for last few presidents.

What is different on this one is the number of people that don't really like him. That's dropped a good bit (but presumably that won't translate directly to lost votes, due to many factors such as the system in general and it's two horse race).

Incidentally, Biden comes out as 'honest' and Trump as 'strong' as if honesty is a weakness (again tho this is based on pre debate data, the effects of Trump being scared to do 2nd debate and how that is spun has yet to be seen).

Timberrrrrrrr · 10-10-2020 11:28am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

When he wins I'll bring a bucket for your tears.

No tears here kiddo, I dont believe Trump will win but if he does i don't see it affect me that much. My friends and family in the US are the ones I feel sorry for if he does win.

cnocbui · 10-10-2020 11:41am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

When he wins I'll bring a bucket for your tears.

If Trump wins, he might get to preside over the second civil war. Given his handling of Covid-19, that will go well.

gmisk · 10-10-2020 11:57am

drunkmonkey wrote: »

S&P 500 is pretty accurate at predicting the Next US President, it's correct 83% of the time and all the indicators are in Trump's favor.

Do you have a link?

cnocbui · 10-10-2020 12:26pm

Trump is losing the old vote: https://reason.com/2020/10/06/trump-is-losing-old-people-to-biden-in-battleground-states/

I'd put my faith in that as an indicator far more than I would the state of the stock market.

I think the fundamentals of the stock market have changed totally in the past year. If it had gone with the wisdom of El Erian, Buffett and almost every hedge fund manager and financial commentator in existence, the stock market would currently still be falling after a massive sell off. So without the unprecedented, history changing magic ingredient, the stock market would be down and heading south.

The magic ingredient that has changed everything is zero interest rates making the stock market almost the only game in town for people seeking a return on investments. This has lead to unprecedented numbers of retail investors getting out of cash and into the stock market, which some have dubbed the Robinhood effect, after the popular investment platform.

If the stock market has had a real predictive value, then it may have lost it's mojo for this one as it's not the same stock market as it was in the past.

drunkmonkey · 10-10-2020 12:40pm

gmisk wrote: »

Do you have a link?

If you go back to the posts 4yrs ago over in the investing forum there was a thread about it. It was correct then and it's looking like a repeat.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-correctly-predicted-next-president-biden-donald-trump-election-2020-6-1029351214

Carfacemandog · 10-10-2020 12:44pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I piled in at today's price, should cover a couple of nights in Doonbeg for the inauguration party. Hope they supply the hats and kick out all journalists again like last time.

Well this certainly is a familiar type of post...

BloodyBill · 10-10-2020 1:03pm

There's such a divide in America between right and left its like the American Civil war. The problem for the left is that if there ever was a 'hot' civil war they'd get their arses handed to them as the military support Trump because he pumps money into them and hasn't gotten them involved in a silly war.
Looking in at the Irish media..its like a battle between good and evil when to repeat the oft misquoted phrase...'there's good people on both sides'. The lack of a centre right daily newspaper and the dominant left wing bias in Irish journalists and UK ones aswell like 'Sopel' the BBC editor...means there will be a simmering resentment and no debate until its too late here aswell and we ll all be dragged into these culture wars..we ll all have to pick a side..Thats the inevitable outcome .

Tell me how · 10-10-2020 1:15pm

BloodyBill wrote: »

There's such a divide in America between right and left its like the American Civil war. The problem for the left is that if there ever was a 'hot' civil war they'd get their arses handed to them as the military support Trump because he pumps money into them and hasn't gotten them involved in a silly war.
Looking in at the Irish media..its like a battle between good and evil when to repeat the oft misquoted phrase...'there's good people on both sides'. The lack of a centre right daily newspaper and the dominant left wing bias in Irish journalists and UK ones aswell like 'Sopel' the BBC editor...means there will be a simmering resentment and no debate until its too late here aswell and we ll all be dragged into these culture wars..we ll all have to pick a side..Thats the inevitable outcome .

Trump will be inconsequential with respect to the American military in little over 3 months. Fingers crossed.

Most UK media is centre right.

Irish people thus far have thankfully so far treated the Irish version of prominent US/UK populists with the contempt they deserve.

Who thinks Trump will win?

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