Who thinks Trump will win?

ThunbergsAreGo

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Enthusiasm gap on the ground between Biden & Trump.

This election is shaping up as Trump vs not-Trump.

Regardless of who won the Democrat nomination wasn't this always going to be the case?

Open the Pubs

letowski wrote: »

Just out of interest Eric, where does your confidence in Wisconsin derive from? I notice you have MI and WI to the right of PA, which would be out of the ordinary.

All the polling on Wisconsin has Biden comfortable I thought.

dwayneshintzy

Trump supporters are both more enthusiastic and willing to show public support......and also terrified of publicly saying they support Trump or answering pollsters truthfully.

Which is it?

relax carry on

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Trump supporters are both more enthusiastic and willing to show public support......and also terrified of publicly saying they support Trump or answering pollsters truthfully.

Which is it?

Schrödinger's Trumpists? We're through the looking glass people.

hetuzozaho

I feel Trump really only considers himself President of the states that voted for him!

California under a Trump presidency is going to Hell.. so vote for Trump ?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1315632997601771520

Foxtrol

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

There is frustration that has been building for some time in California, a combination of high taxes and indications of more to come combined with high cost of living, outward migration of those who can (high income earners), crime, the homeless and drug epidemic in particular meth , natural disasters (Depending on where you live in the state you can be subject to fires, mudslides, earthquakes, droughts), not to mention the lockdowns. Rural California tends to vote Republican, they are a minority, while the coast is heavily Democrat, however if the area around the Central valley decides to exercise their frustration with the California government then Trump could come close. Trump is not campaigning in California, on the plus side California has nice weather year round, unless you live in the mountains, then you don't have to spend the Winter shovelling snow like you do in the North-East of the United States.

If that was true then why did Dems pick up 7 seats in 2018, in mostly previously very safe GOP areas?

Why would the voters suddenly take out their annoyance on a national Dem candidate for the local issues you're highlighting, when voters largely haven't done so to Dem candidates in local elections?

What you've written there is complete fan fiction.

Igotadose

hetuzozaho wrote: »

I feel Trump really only considers himself President of the states that voted for him!

California under a Trump presidency is going to Hell.. so vote for Trump ?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1315632997601771520

That's the end of any serious votes for the #IMPOTUS or the tGOP in CA. It's just the old right-wing everything is bad in California that the natives hate. Yeah, some are leaving, doesn't matter, population always goes up. There'll be some votes, sure.

Solid now for Biden and down-ticket. Good job, #IMPOTUS. Once you're gone, welcome attorney general Adam Schiff.

Tony EH

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Trump supporters are both more enthusiastic and willing to show public support......and also terrified of publicly saying they support Trump or answering pollsters truthfully.

Which is it?

Somewhere George Orwell is laughing.

Quantum Erasure

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Trump supporters are both more enthusiastic and willing to show public support......and also terrified of publicly saying they support Trump or answering pollsters truthfully.

Which is it?

It can be both,

Eric Cartman

Open the Pubs wrote: »

All the polling on Wisconsin has Biden comfortable I thought.

Trump is receiving donations 2:1 over biden in WI, his team are paying for a lot of strategic advertising , he’s spent time on the ground there, a lot of manufacturing jobs in wisconsin.

The polls don’t reflect it but im quietly confident theyre going to keep WI red, it was such a close call the last time but theres a lot of ground work has gone in to keep it.

Eric Cartman

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Trump supporters are both more enthusiastic and willing to show public support......and also terrified of publicly saying they support Trump or answering pollsters truthfully.

Which is it?

Iower income non public facing workers, non unioned workers, tradespeople, elderly and the unemployed are very vocal about their trump support because theyve nothing to lose. Many wealthy people, business owners, college students, executives or tech/arts/health workers who support trump are reluctant to say it publicly.

Take it as a 2nd amendment thing, think of what kind of people you see publically defending the 2nd amendment and then think of how many people would keep a gun at home but don’t really talk about it or need a ‘god, guns, america’ baseball hat.

Foxtrol

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Trump is receiving donations 2:1 over biden in WI, his team are paying for a lot of strategic advertising , he’s spent time on the ground there, a lot of manufacturing jobs in wisconsin.

The polls don’t reflect it but im quietly confident theyre going to keep WI red, it was such a close call the last time but theres a lot of ground work has gone in to keep it.

By paying for, do you mean cancelling ads? Trump is either even more confident than you or else they are pulling back to fight where he has to win.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1314573128723554305?s=20

Foxtrol

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Iower income non public facing workers, non unioned workers, tradespeople, elderly and the unemployed are very vocal about their trump support because theyve nothing to lose. Many wealthy people, business owners, college students, executives or tech/arts/health workers who support trump are reluctant to say it publicly.

Take it as a 2nd amendment thing, think of what kind of people you see publically defending the 2nd amendment and then think of how many people would keep a gun at home but don’t really talk about it or need a ‘god, guns, america’ baseball hat.

2nd amendment is a great topic. Trump and the GOP are completely out of step with the American public and even the people of more rural states like Wisconsin, with 80% agreeing with the need for increased background checks for guns. Sure Trump can lie that 'they are coming for your guns', but only fools are drawn in by that.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2019/09/04/wisconsin-voters-overwhelmingly-back-expanding-gun-background-checks/2209901001/

Eric Cartman

Foxtrol wrote: »

2nd amendment is a great topic. Trump and the GOP are completely out of step with the American public and even the people of more rural states like Wisconsin, with 80% agreeing with the need for increased background checks for guns. Sure Trump can lie that 'they are coming for your guns', but only fools are drawn in by that.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2019/09/04/wisconsin-voters-overwhelmingly-back-expanding-gun-background-checks/2209901001/

I've long believed that roe v wade and the 2nd amendment are the lowest boogeymen that US politics can throw out, the comparison was more on a topic where certain supporters are visible and loud about but many more avoid talking about their support for to avoid confrontation/argument/negative repercussions.

Eric Cartman

Foxtrol wrote: »

By paying for, do you mean cancelling ads? Trump is either even more confident than you or else they are pulling back to fight where he has to win.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1314573128723554305?s=20

interesting, may have to root for PA and NC to get him over the line so.

Zubeneschamali

New NYT Siena polls, Biden up 10 in Wisconsin, 8 in Michigan
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1315698544288903168?s=19

hirondelle

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I've long believed that roe v wade and the 2nd amendment are the lowest boogeymen that US politics can throw out, the comparison was more on a topic where certain supporters are visible and loud about but many more avoid talking about their support for to avoid confrontation/argument/negative repercussions.

Does that line of reasoning on the last point not hold true for people who will vote for Biden, but live in the flyover states or other areas that would be very much Republican? It is presumably impossible to calculate the net effect of keeping "neighbourly" across the states when the divisions are so raw.

Eric Cartman

hirondelle wrote: »

Does that line of reasoning on the last point not hold true for people who will vote for Biden, but live in the flyover states or other areas that would be very much Republican? It is presumably impossible to calculate the net effect of keeping "neighbourly" across the states when the divisions are so raw.

I suppose it would in the context of being neighbourly, and I'm sure there is a local bar or two that Biden supporters aren't welcome in , but I don't feel it has the same impact, Nobody will get sacked from a multinational for supporting Biden, nobody will have their business cancelled/set on fire/boycotted for their owner supporting Biden. Its a visceral violent reaction to supporting trump that you just don't get the other direction.

Foxtrol

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I've long believed that roe v wade and the 2nd amendment are the lowest boogeymen that US politics can throw out, the comparison was more on a topic where certain supporters are visible and loud about but many more avoid talking about their support for to avoid confrontation/argument/negative repercussions.

But your logic doesn't make sense, it seems like the usual 'shy voter' when it suits.

Time and time again in polls you see that a complete ban on guns doesn't have popular support, yet in the same polls common sense gun control is very popular.

Are you claiming that the people are confident enough to say that they are pro guns but not confident enough to say they are anti-gun control?

Foxtrol

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I suppose it would in the context of being neighbourly, and I'm sure there is a local bar or two that Biden supporters aren't welcome in , but I don't feel it has the same impact, Nobody will get sacked from a multinational for supporting Biden, nobody will have their business cancelled/set on fire/boycotted for their owner supporting Biden. Its a visceral violent reaction to supporting trump that you just don't get the other direction.

That is absolute rubbish.

Most owner and C-level donations go to Trump so why would they be sacking people for supporting him. There is a big difference between supporting a candidate and doing something that breaks the office rules, like wearing political clothing.

There is a never ending list of businesses that Trump and the GOP have tried to 'cancel'.

Many in many parts of red states it wouldn't be safe to wear a Biden or Hillary t-shirts.

Seems like you're living in the parallel Fox News universe, where republicans are always the victim

Eric Cartman

Foxtrol wrote: »

But your logic doesn't make sense, it seems like the usual 'shy voter' when it suits.

Time and time again in polls you see that a complete ban on guns doesn't have popular support, yet in the same polls common sense gun control is very popular.

Are you claiming that the people are confident enough to say that they are pro guns but not confident enough to say they are anti-gun control?

I'm saying that if you lined up 30 people at a very long dinner table and one gun nut started preaching 'don't tread on me, god guns America' that there are many people at that table who would own guns and never vote to restrict them in any way who would not give that opinion out loud for love nor money for fear of being associated with the loudmouth.

Most people can separate supporting Joe Biden from the #acronym, defund the police, burn the buildings types , as they should. But many are shy on trump as it puts them square in burning crosses, proud boys, trailer park gun nut territory. Most cannot separate extremists from the moderates on that side of the aisle.

Foxtrol

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I'm saying that if you lined up 30 people at a very long dinner table and one gun nut started preaching 'don't tread on me, god guns America' that there are many people at that table who would own guns and never vote to restrict them in any way who would not give that opinion out loud for love nor money for fear of being associated with the loudmouth.

Most people can separate supporting Joe Biden from the #acronym, defund the police, burn the buildings types , as they should. But many are shy on trump as it puts them square in burning crosses, proud boys, trailer park gun nut territory. Most cannot separate extremists from the moderates on that side of the aisle.

All evidence points to this group being tiny. The vast majority of people are able to hold two position, they like being able to have guns but would like some control put in place.

The GOP only hold onto their position because the fear of and financial support from the NRA

Tell me how

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I'm saying that if you lined up 30 people at a very long dinner table and one gun nut started preaching 'don't tread on me, god guns America' that there are many people at that table who would own guns and never vote to restrict them in any way who would not give that opinion out loud for love nor money for fear of being associated with the loudmouth.

Most people can separate supporting Joe Biden from the #acronym, defund the police, burn the buildings types , as they should. But many are shy on trump as it puts them square in burning crosses, proud boys, trailer park gun nut territory. Most cannot separate extremists from the moderates on that side of the aisle.

And that is as a direct consequence of his narrative over the last 4 years.

There are many reasonable Republicans. The state I am in has a Republican Governor who I am largely impressed by, but, over the last 4 years, Trump's narrative has aligned with the burning crosses, proud boys, trailer park gun nut territory.

Moderate Republicans would have looked in disdain at his 'LIBERATE' tweets or his' 'I'll protect the suburbs' message. And the flood of Republicans lambasting him over his general performance and particularly in relation to Covid means that those remaining are more likely of the extremist nature.

As for the 'Fine people on both sides' and 'stand back and stand by' message, that just removed all semblance of trying to appear balanced.

Pa ElGrande

Latest poll from Delaware. Biden is up by 8 . . . and back asleep by 8:30

This presentation is a look at other metrics that point to a Trump win.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jnSXDUWlvU

ThunbergsAreGo

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Latest poll from Delaware. Biden is up by 8 . . . and back asleep by 8:30

This presentation is a look at other metrics that point to a Trump win.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jnSXDUWlvU

Again that is massively contradictory - people wont admit supporting Trump to their family and friends but will get a big massive flag and a MAGA cap :D:D:D

mcmoustache

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Latest poll from Delaware. Biden is up by 8 . . . and back asleep by 8:30

This presentation is a look at other metrics that point to a Trump win.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jnSXDUWlvU

Is this guy an expert of some kind or is he just some guy with an opinion and a youtube channel?

BattleCorp

mcmoustache wrote: »

Is this guy an expert of some kind or is he just some guy with an opinion and a youtube channel?

You can't believe jack sh1t on the internet any more. Jaysus, with deep fakes etc., you can't even believe your own eyes any more.

Timberrrrrrrr

mcmoustache wrote: »

Is this guy an expert of some kind or is he just some guy with an opinion and a youtube channel?

In his own words he is "a classical liberal in favour of the free market and small state".

mcmoustache

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

In his own words he is "a classical liberal in favour of the free market and small state".

That's just a political identity though and doesn't give any indication of his expertise. The guy who posted the video is basically saying "here, take time from your day to listen to this guy that I found down in the pub who agrees with me". Rightwing youtube is full of these opinionated talking heads with no expertise in the topics that they're discussing.

JP Liz V1

Trump will triumph again