Who thinks Trump will win?

Igotadose

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Trump will triumph again

Tell us why - take the challenge I've posted. Fill out the electoral college grid here, post your results and tell us how you got to 270 electoral votes, including how you decided which 'swing' states went which way.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps

stefanovich

Igotadose wrote: »

Tell us why - take the challenge I've posted. Fill out the electoral college grid here, post your results and tell us how you got to 270 electoral votes, including how you decided which 'swing' states went which way.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps

Believing CNN polls in 2020 :pac:

Igotadose

stefanovich wrote: »

Believing CNN polls in 2020 :pac:

Not at all. If you want, you can show us how you think the states will go by clicking each of them till they turn the color you want, and it recalculates the EC total. Simples. Give it a whirl and give us the results.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ycp7V7WGmsc

Interview with Nate Silver and pollsters Robert Cahaly & Doug Rivers on the polls and their methods.

You can read description under the video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ycp7V7WGmsc

Tell me how

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ycp7V7WGmsc

Interview with Nate Silver and pollsters Robert Cahaly & Doug Rivers on the polls and their methods.

You can read description under the video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ycp7V7WGmsc

Interesting that the pollster in that discussion who favoured a Trump win when it was recorded, is now suggesting a Biden win.

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1316000421085933568

Listening to him speaking in the interview, I find it hard to think that he isn't allowing some of his own personal views to influence his polling calculations.

Tony EH

mcmoustache wrote: »

That's just a political identity though and doesn't give any indication of his expertise. The guy who posted the video is basically saying "here, take time from your day to listen to this guy that I found down in the pub who agrees with me". Rightwing youtube is full of these opinionated talking heads with no expertise in the topics that they're discussing.

Always gas when someone posts a video they found in their YouTube algorithm. As if it's something everyone should be bothered with. :pac:

A simpleton's confirmation bias.

Pa ElGrande

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Trump will triumph again

I see what you did there.

Overheal

I like their polling methodology, but it is still alike to meteorology. That said I still plan around hurricane forecasts.

km991148

Tony EH wrote: »

Always gas when someone posts a video they found in their YouTube algorithm. As if it's something everyone should be bothered with. :pac:

A simpleton's confirmation bias.

Ah but this is why you should click random links in threads like this. My YouTube algorithm is screwed today I got Jonathan pie followed by some anti BBC bell end Alex Belfield.. brilliant, YouTube doesn't know who I am!

Laois_Man

Igotadose wrote: »

Tell us why - take the challenge I've posted. Fill out the electoral college grid here, post your results and tell us how you got to 270 electoral votes, including how you decided which 'swing' states went which way.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps

I believe Biden will win it by a fairly similar margin to the one Trump had in 2016 - maybe even a bit more. The only possible path to a Trump win is, assuming the CNN map is accurate for hard/light blue/red.....give Biden all the Dem leaning states and Trump the Republican leaning state (really only Texas)

Then give Trump ALL of the swing states
- Florida (Ipsos has it as a dead heat)
- Ohio (most polls have this as Trump slightly ahead)
- Georgia (Recent polls vary from 50/50 to a 7 point lead for Biden)
- North Carolina (Recent polls have a 2-8 point margin for Biden)
- Iowa (recent polls range from 50/50 to 6 point lead for Trump)

After all of that, Trump still only reaches 241 and needs two of the large Dem leaning states to do it

- Pennsylvania (Polling gives Biden a 6 or 7 point lead)
- Michigan (Polling gives Biden a 6 to 9 point lead)

With these 2, Trump could afford to lose Iowa and would still do it

Failing one or both of the above, Trump obviously needs more than 2 of Dem leaning states. Hard to see it.

BloodyBill

Laois_Man wrote: »

I believe Biden will win it by a fairly similar margin to the one Trump had in 2016 - maybe even a bit more. The only possible path to a Trump win is, assuming the CNN map is accurate for hard/light blue/red.....give Biden all the Dem leaning states and Trump the Republican leaning state (really only Texas)

Then give Trump ALL of the swing states
- Florida (Ipsos has it as a dead heat)
- Ohio (most polls have this as Trump slightly ahead)
- Georgia (Recent polls vary from 50/50 to a 7 point lead for Biden)
- North Carolina (Recent polls have a 2-8 point margin for Biden)
- Iowa (recent polls range from 50/50 to 6 point lead for Trump)

After all of that, Trump still only reaches 241 and needs two of the large Dem leaning states to do it

- Pennsylvania (Polling gives Biden a 6 or 7 point lead)
- Michigan (Polling gives Biden a 6 to 9 point lead)

With these 2, Trump could afford to lose Iowa and would still do it

Failing one or both of the above, Trump obviously needs more than 2 of Dem leaning states. Hard to see it.

I think Trump will win all the States where he is within 5% points of Biden before polling day. The Polling organisations have apparently factored in shy Trump voters into their algorithms . I think they've done that. What they haven't factored in is the medias narrative..mostly Pro Biden. This has the knock on effect of quietening Trump supporters in day to interactions and even in polls. So again the polls will be as wrong as 2016.
What we should look for us any gains from Trump over the next week. If its even a 2% gain ,triple that and you ll be about right .
Trump to win Michigan, Ohio ,Pennsylvania,Florida,Georgia ,North Carolina, Iowa..probably lose Wisconsin.

MadYaker

BloodyBill wrote: »

I think Trump will win all the States where he is within 5% points of Biden before polling day. The Polling organisations have apparently factored in shy Trump voters into their algorithms . I think they've done that. What they haven't factored in is the medias narrative..mostly Pro Biden. This has the knock on effect of quietening Trump supporters in day to interactions and even in polls. So again the polls will be as wrong as 2016.
What we should look for us any gains from Trump over the next week. If its even a 2% gain ,triple that and you ll be about right .
Trump to win Michigan, Ohio ,Pennsylvania,Florida,Georgia ,North Carolina, Iowa..probably lose Wisconsin.

The polls were within the margin of error in 2016 and clinton won the popular vote. This is all just your own personal feelings based on nothing and goes completely against every bit of evidence we can actually see.

Zubeneschamali

Trump at 15/8 at Paddy Power right now, mad odds in a two horse race.

Manic Moran

Foxtrol wrote: »

2nd amendment is a great topic. Trump and the GOP are completely out of step with the American public and even the people of more rural states like Wisconsin, with 80% agreeing with the need for increased background checks for guns. Sure Trump can lie that 'they are coming for your guns', but only fools are drawn in by that.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2019/09/04/wisconsin-voters-overwhelmingly-back-expanding-gun-background-checks/2209901001/

The problem is that Democrats have very clearly and explicity said they're coming for our guns. You remember when Beto, in Texas of all places, said "Hell yes, we'll take your AR-15", the most commonly sold rifle in the country?

Then a few months later Biden says he'd put Beto in charge of gun policy?

Then we look at what's going on in the Democrat stronghold of California, and realise that they have effectively banned the sale of any new pistols. No pistol designed in the last seven years is legal for sale in California, and older pistols are being discontinued by the manufacturers over time. Want to buy the latest, safest, most reliable, most accurate thing out there? Better hope California Democrats don't get any say in things.

While we're generally in favour of background checks, we're given a choice between 'no check' and 'more than just a background check' in the legislation from Republicans and Democrats respectively. Absent that, the people who care (i.e. the people who are likely to buy*) are going to go with the system which affects them the least.

*After the pandemic panic started, folks who had never before owned a gun suddenly realised that they actually wanted one. I'm sure you recall the photos lines going around buildings. Many were surprised at the levels of hoops and delays that they had to go through in California. They were fine voting for the restrictions until they fell afoul of them themselves, and shop owners are saying to them "I didn't vote for this, stop complaining to me". That's why firearms are such a touchy subject. Whatever the larger polling, for those who are not directly affected by it consider it a sort of tangential, by-the-way subject. Those who are directly affected by it are more likely to pay attention and consider it as a factor in voting.

cnocbui

Manic Moran wrote: »

The problem is that Democrats have very clearly and explicity said they're coming for our guns. You remember when Beto, in Texas of all places, said "Hell yes, we'll take your AR-15", the most commonly sold rifle in the country?

Then a few months later Biden says he'd put Beto in charge of gun policy?

Then we look at what's going on in the Democrat stronghold of California, and realise that they have effectively banned the sale of any new pistols. No pistol designed in the last seven years is legal for sale in California, and older pistols are being discontinued by the manufacturers over time. Want to buy the latest, safest, most reliable, most accurate thing out there? Better hope California Democrats don't get any say in things.

While we're generally in favour of background checks, we're given a choice between 'no check' and 'more than just a background check' in the legislation from Republicans and Democrats respectively. Absent that, the people who care (i.e. the people who are likely to buy*) are going to go with the system which affects them the least.

*After the pandemic panic started, folks who had never before owned a gun suddenly realised that they actually wanted one. I'm sure you recall the photos lines going around buildings. Many were surprised at the levels of hoops and delays that they had to go through in California. They were fine voting for the restrictions until they fell afoul of them themselves, and shop owners are saying "I didn't vote for this". That's why firearms are such a touchy subject. Whatever the larger polling, for those who are not directly affected by it consider it a sort of tangential, by-the-way subject. Those who are directly affected by it are more likely to pay attention and consider it as a factor in voting.

Actually, the 'Democrats' appear to be out buying guns so rapidly some black women have complained they can't find enough ammunition. Funny how reality works. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-guns-insight/u-s-gun-sales-soar-amid-pandemic-social-unrest-election-fears-idUSKBN2701G1

Laois_Man

BloodyBill wrote: »

I think Trump will win all the States where he is within 5% points of Biden before polling day. The Polling organisations have apparently factored in shy Trump voters into their algorithms . I think they've done that. What they haven't factored in is the medias narrative..mostly Pro Biden. This has the knock on effect of quietening Trump supporters in day to interactions and even in polls. So again the polls will be as wrong as 2016.
What we should look for us any gains from Trump over the next week. If its even a 2% gain ,triple that and you ll be about right .
Trump to win Michigan, Ohio ,Pennsylvania,Florida,Georgia ,North Carolina, Iowa..probably lose Wisconsin.

I dont quite understand why you're counting "shy Trump voters" and "quietening Trump supporters" as two different things!

biko

I just wanna say how happy I am the Atari option is still being used.

Tell me how

biko wrote: »

I just wanna say how happy I am the Atari option is still be used.

I just wanna say how happy I am the days are counting down with Biden maintaining his lead.

cnocbui

Rupert Murdoch thinks Biden will win:

President Trump’s influential supporter Rupert Murdoch is telling close associates he believes Joe Biden will win the election in a landslide.
...
But he is now firmly of the mindset that the next president will be Biden, telling one associate, “after all that has gone on, people are ready for Sleepy Joe.”
...
This isn’t the first time Murdoch has predicted a Democratic landslide, telling a conference in 2008 that Obama would win the election in a convincing victory.

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1316726554085466115

BaZmO*

Murdoch is just doing what he always does and is reading the crowd. There is so much push back against Trump at the moment. His rallies are just dog whistling events, he’s not offering the people anything. In fairness to him, in 2016 he at least stood for something, or gave the impression that he did. He was “anti-establishment” but everyone but his base has seen through it by now.

He’s still got the cult following from his base but I think Biden will romp home.

Tony EH

cnocbui wrote: »

Rupert Murdoch thinks Biden will win:

It's funny when you hear phrases like "President Trump’s influential supporter Rupert Murdoch..." and yet so many Trump worshipers bang on incessantly about the "media" in their shilling for that muppet, conveniently choosing to leave out things like that, that fatally hole the narrative they have in their heads.

It's quite the spectacle, sometimes, to watch the deluded talk rings around themselves in their efforts to show blind support for the man.

Tell me how

Tony EH wrote: »

It's funny when you hear phrases like "President Trump’s influential supporter Rupert Murdoch..." and yet so many Trump worshipers bang on incessantly about the "media" in their shilling for that muppet, conveniently choosing to leave out things like that, that fatally hole the narrative they have in their heads.

It's quite the spectacle, sometimes, to watch the deluded talk rings around themselves in their efforts to show blind support for the man.

Fox scream about the Main Stream Media when 27 of the top 50 watched shows are on Fox.

Would that not, by definition, make their content, the main stream?

nolivesmatter

Tell me how wrote: »

Fox scream about the Main Stream Media when 27 of the top 50 watched shows are on Fox.

Would that not, by definition, make their content, the main stream?

Maybe they're talking about mainstream news media rather than tv shows like The Simpsons?

Outlaw Pete

Trump's Townhall is hostile as fcuk, surprise surprise. Asking him nonsense questions about Qanon and White Supremacy.

Will Biden be asked questions about Antifa and the latest Hunter email scandal? We'll see.

Outlaw Pete

Be interesting to see if this gets labelled "Manipulated Media" by Twitter:


https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1316811506613325824

Tell me how

nolivesmatter wrote: »

Maybe they're talking about mainstream news media rather than tv shows like The Simpsons?

Foxes dominance is in relation to news shows.
I was wrong in that it is actually 18 out of 15 shows.
But still, unquestionably the dominant network.

Which actually means that there is some merit in Trump and Fox themselves talking about MSM being full of fake news.

Fox themselves argued in court that viewers didn't expect Tucker Carlson to be communicating facts.

Tell me how

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Be interesting to see if this gets labelled "Manipulated Media" by Twitter:


https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1316811506613325824

Did you miss the text on the tweet 'We fixed Don Jr.’s crazy ad.'

That makes it satire.

They are not misleading anyone. It's not that difficult to grasp.

dwayneshintzy

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Trump's Townhall is hostile as fcuk, surprise surprise. Asking him nonsense questions about Qanon and White Supremacy.

Will Biden be asked questions about Antifa and the latest Hunter email scandal? We'll see.

Once again, seems Trump and his fans reaction to being challenged on anything at all is to cry and whine.

Nothing is ever his fault, nobody ever treats him fairly........yet we're supposed to believe he's a "strong" leader?

Outlaw Pete

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Trump's Townhall is hostile as fcuk, surprise surprise. Asking him nonsense questions about Qanon and White Supremacy.

Will Biden be asked questions about Antifa and the latest Hunter email scandal? We'll see.

Hmm, it's almost as if the public have a poor perception of Trump and don't approve of his behaviour. QAnon, he approved of the fact that they support him and despite your many spiels, he's pretty sympathetic towards the white supremacists.

Timberrrrrrrr

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Trump's Townhall is hostile as fcuk, surprise surprise. Asking him nonsense questions about Qanon and White Supremacy.

Will Biden be asked questions about Antifa and the latest Hunter email scandal? We'll see.

Wether you like it or not these are things that the American people would like answers to, Trump squirming and not answering the questions has now given them their answer.