Who thinks Trump will win?

duploelabs

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

He's not assessing a witness for a trial though his lawyer was sent evidence of a political opponent's potential crimes and he was satisfied after verifying it on it's own merits.

I'm talking about Rudi changing his story multiple times as I just demonstrated

Call Me Jimmy

duploelabs wrote: »

I'm talking about Rudi changing his story multiple times as I just demonstrated

He didn't change his story, you didn't know the full story? Did I miss something?

newhouse87

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8862271/Pollster-predicted-2016-says-Donald-Trump-track-win-thanks-hidden-support.html

Be interesting if this guy is right again.

duploelabs

newhouse87 wrote: »

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8862271/Pollster-predicted-2016-says-Donald-Trump-track-win-thanks-hidden-support.html

Be interesting if this guy is right again.

He used to work for trump, as well as Governors Carroll Campbell, David Beasley, Mike Huckabee, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Henry McMaster; US Senators Strom Thurmond, Bob Dole, Tim Scott, and Ben Sasse; and Presidents George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, so definitely unbiased

newhouse87

duploelabs wrote: »

He used to work for trump, as well as Governors Carroll Campbell, David Beasley, Mike Huckabee, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Henry McMaster; US Senators Strom Thurmond, Bob Dole, Tim Scott, and Ben Sasse; and Presidents George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, so definitely unbiased

yeah he was one of the few pollsters who had trump leading in battleground states on eve of last election so biased or unbiased he was one of the few that got it right.

gmisk

newhouse87 wrote: »

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8862271/Pollster-predicted-2016-says-Donald-Trump-track-win-thanks-hidden-support.html

Be interesting if this guy is right again.

Ridiculously biased pollster.
Twitter account is mostly retweeting PACs and other pro trump material.

newhouse87

yes i know but again he was one of the few who got it right last time, just because he is biased doesn't mean he is wrong, His points about shy trump voters are known at this stage.

juice1304

joseywhales wrote: »

Why should there be any focus on hunter biden? Is he running for office?

Also he stands officially accused of, much less convicted of nothing, he is as innocent as you or I as things stand.

Because Hunter is a useless crackhead being paid 10 million a year for three years by members of the Chinese communist party. And Joe was getting 50%
What has hunter Biden got to offer? Only the influence of his father who knew what was going on and actively involved. Look at the Ukraine.
They tried to impeach Trump over a phone call because it questioned Biden yet there is now evidence that it was in fact true and yet all you hear from the media is crickets and Orangeman bad. It's disgusting. As is creepy joe and his son.

duploelabs

newhouse87 wrote: »

yes i know but again he was one of the few who got it right last time, just because he is biased doesn't mean he is wrong, His points about shy trump voters are known at this stage.

Those shy trump voters would clearly indicated themselves as undecideds, unfortunately the undecideds are extremely low this time round. If he's saying that these shy trump voters didn't participate in polling then I would question his methods of interpreting those polls

newhouse87

duploelabs wrote: »

Those shy trump voters would clearly indicated themselves as undecideds, unfortunately the undecideds are extremely low this time round. If he's saying that these shy trump voters didn't participate in polling then I would question his methods of interpreting those polls

yeah we will see in few weeks, just think it would be interesting in future if he is right again considering the big lead biden supposedly has.

duploelabs

newhouse87 wrote: »

yeah we will see in few weeks, just think it would be interesting in future if he is right again considering the big lead biden supposedly has.

Where do you find this confidence in the link you shared? Where do you think these shy voters are? Are they claiming to vote democrat but actually republican?

newhouse87

duploelabs wrote: »

Where do you find this confidence in the link you shared? Where do you think these shy voters are? Are they claiming to vote democrat but actually republican?

passive aggressive? Jesus i posted a link of guy who was right the last time, would you not agree it would be interesting if he was right again when nearly all other polls suggest otherwise. Calm down.

duploelabs

newhouse87 wrote: »

passive aggressive? Jesus i posted a link of guy who was right the last time, would you not agree it would be interesting if he was right again when nearly all other polls suggest otherwise. Calm down.

There is nothing to back up his claim, so was asking why you believed it was true?

newhouse87

His claim couldn't possibly be backed up (shy voters), . If he is right again though i think that backs up his point, would you not agree?

duploelabs

newhouse87 wrote: »

His claim couldn't possibly be backed up (shy voters), . If he is right again though i think that backs up his point, would you not agree?

A statement without showing how you got to that point is a guess. Leaving cert maths should teach you that

newhouse87

duploelabs wrote: »

A statement without showing how you got to that point is a guess. Leaving cert maths should teach you that

if he is right again, would common sense tell you he is right, i would use simple logic and say yes that there is many silent trump voters that are not being taken into account in many polls. We will see in a few weeks.

MeMen2_MoRi_

Shy voters, is that what undecided voters are being called from 2016?

duploelabs

newhouse87 wrote: »

if he is right again, would common sense tell you he is right, i would use simple logic and say yes that there is many silent trump voters that are not being taken into account in many polls. We will see in a few weeks.

Explain this simple logic then

newhouse87

if you cant follow what i said, thats on you.

duploelabs

newhouse87 wrote: »

if you cant follow what i said, thats on you.

No, I asked you to explain the logic as to where these shy trump voters are, but you can't

newhouse87

duploelabs wrote: »

No, I asked you to explain the logic as to where these shy trump voters are, but you can't

i already said IF trump wins again, it shows most of the polling is wrong and many trump voters are not outwardly saying they are voting for trump, nothing too confusing there. Your dislike of trump is clouding your common sense. BTW i dont care who wins.

MoonUnit75

duploelabs wrote: »

Explain this simple logic then

I'm not sure there will be as many as there were in 2016, but I can see the logic of it. If you're voting for Trump, for whatever reason, and an early 20s college student working for a polling company rings you and asks who you are voting for, you will be less likely to say Trump than Biden. One reason is people don't like being judged, even anonymously. Early 20s college students are not known for their willingness to put themselves in the shoes of people they don't agree with ideologically. The next reason is the fear that the next question will be 'and can you tell me why you are voting for Trump?'. It's a hot-button topic, people would rather a quiet life and say 'Biden' or 'I haven't decided' than have some snarky pollster asking them why they are considering this wrong-think.

MeMen2_MoRi_

Trump voters are now somehow shrinking violets, not wanting to be judged over the phone in the comfort of their own home..

Right, gotcha.

MoonUnit75

MeMen2_MoRi_ wrote: »

Trump voters are now somehow shrinking violets, not wanting to be judged over the phone in the comfort of their own home..

Right, gotcha.

Some, yes. Not all, but a minority. Maybe 2-4% at a wild guess. How many people must have told pollsters in 2016 they were voting for Hillary when they really were voting for Trump?

duploelabs

MoonUnit75 wrote: »

I'm not sure there will be as many as there were in 2016, but I can see the logic of it. If you're voting for Trump, for whatever reason, and an early 20s college student working for a polling company rings you and asks who you are voting for, you will be less likely to say Trump than Biden. One reason is people don't like being judged, even anonymously. Early 20s college students are not known for their willingness to put themselves in the shoes of people they don't agree with ideologically. The next reason is the fear that the next question will be 'and can you tell me why you are voting for Trump?'. It's a hot-button topic, people would rather a quiet life and say 'Biden' or 'I haven't decided' than have some snarky pollster asking them why they are considering this wrong-think.

Given the three options, surely they would say undecided then

Pa ElGrande

Tom Del Beccaro: A Trump 'surprise' victory is in the offing -- here are the 10 tea leaves pointing to it

7. Early Voting in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio.

National polling from Pew Research indicates that “55% of voters who plan to cast their ballot in person before Election Day support Biden, compared to 40% who support President Trump.”

However, in the key battleground states of Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin the early voting indicates that “registered Republicans are returning ballots at about the same rate as registered Democrats.” The parties are even in Michigan, Democrats up 2% in Wisconsin and the Republicans up 2% in Ohio.

source

Gallup: Trump Job Rating Steady; Other Mood Indicators Tick Up

Historically, presidents' approval ratings have tended to be most polarized during their fourth year in office, when they are seeking reelection. Trump's first-, second- and third-year average ratings were more polarized than any other president's first three years, and his fourth year is on pace to be the most polarized presidential year in history.

source

duploelabs

MoonUnit75 wrote: »

Some, yes. Not all, but a minority. Maybe 2-4% at a wild guess. How many people must have told pollsters in 2016 they were voting for Hillary when they really were voting for Trump?

2 to 4 % swing, even with the margin of error isn't going to get trump over the line given the current status of the polls

MoonUnit75

duploelabs wrote: »

Given the three options, surely they would say undecided then

I don't think 2016 suggests this is always the case. Definitely some will say undecided.

duploelabs

MoonUnit75 wrote: »

I don't think 2016 suggests this is always the case. Definitely some will say undecided.

So out of the current undecideds, who are about 6%, how many are those 'some'?

MeMen2_MoRi_

MoonUnit75 wrote: »

Some, yes. Not all, but a minority. Maybe 2-4% at a wild guess. How many people must have told pollsters in 2016 they were voting for Hillary when they really were voting for Trump?

Is there even a shred of evidence to support this?

Pretty sure all evidence points to the swing of the undecided voters in 16 pushing trump across the line.. here in 2020 the percentage of undecideds is a lot smaller which is giving trump less room to wiggle his way to victory.