Who thinks Trump will win?

OS_Head

stefanovich wrote: »

It's just rhetorical nonsense. He's trying to wear you out.

You think? I'm having fun getting some typing practice and schooling someone on the left about their miserable failings and lack of critical thinking skills. :pac:

sabat

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

are you saying that Joe has dementia?

You can clearly see that when he starts stuttering it's followed by a total loss of his train of thought. I'm not going to diagnose any condition but that is happening.

OS_Head

spook_cook wrote: »

I'll be surprised if he doesn't.

Either way will be fun though. Another epic breakdown like 2016 on the Dems side will be hilarious. We were assured that America would be a dictatorship by now, but hey I guess Trump decided to wait until after another election

A Trump-er meltdown, ho ho. I imagine the man himself would go on an a bit twitter blowout and the fear instilled towards President Harris would be funny to see fizzle out as reality hits and things... just sorta stay the same.

The meltdowns in 2016 were comical. They were sure they were going to win, as they are today. I especially liked the meltdown on TYT. I can't see Trumpers doing the same though. I just hope whoever wins that it's clear cut and dry. At the DNC recently, listening to H Clinton telling Biden to "never concede, no matter what, ever..." That was a bit disappointing and unsporting. Though I guess she still hasn't gotten over 2016.

OS_Head

OS_Head wrote: »

Yep, Here's are his own Democratic party attacking him on this very issue at the beginning of the year. He should be allowed to retire. Is this not elder abuse?

This line of argument is really failing after he's done multiple town halls and two debates...

OS_Head

Deleted User wrote: »

This line of argument is really failing after he's done multiple town halls and two debates...

Call them town halls? He puts a lid on his campaign most days by 9am. Doctors can prescribe special pickups to help through a couple of hours. That's why he wouldn't do a drug test.

The town halls are not real town halls either. Only soft ball questions asked, run by activist network hosts and scripted questions by "undecided voters" who are actually former employees and associates. Much like the "What flavour of Ice Cream" question he got when the laptop scandal broke. The "reporters" are there to protect him. Only softball questions asked. Reporters that ask anything else are vilified and canceled on twitter.

The first debate was against the Biden apologist moderator Chris Wallace. No wonder Trumps approach. The debate last night, Trump clearly won. Biden just gave a lot of sound bites. They almost seemed like he had them memorized. He had very little by way of detail.

John Divney

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

no confusion on my part. I'm an old codger but Rudy is a LOT older than me. somebody that looks 20 is a young girl. It is really creepy that rudy thinks it is appropriate to have a quick fiddle while alone with her.

This has already been corrected by the few honest liberals who have seen it. This is a total lie he never did anything they claimed. This is how low the media has stooped, all lies and smears against Trump are spread and legitimised, all legitimate criticism against Biden is censored and worse, marked as a lie by the tech companies and the media. How on earth is this worth electing Biden they’ve created a nightmare world straight out of a dystopian novel and are telling you the danger is Trump.

MadYaker

OS_Head wrote: »

Call them town halls? He puts a lid on his campaign most days by 9am. Doctors can prescribe special pickups to help through a couple of hours. That's why he wouldn't do a drug test.

The town halls are not real town halls either. Only soft ball questions asked, run by activist network hosts and scripted questions by "undecided voters" who are actually former employees and associates. Much like the "What flavour of Ice Cream" question he got when the laptop scandal broke. The "reporters" are there to protect him. Only softball questions asked. Reporters that ask anything else are vilified and canceled on twitter.

The first debate was against the Biden apologist moderator Chris Wallace. No wonder Trumps approach. The debate last night, Trump clearly won. Biden just gave a lot of sound bites. They almost seemed like he had them memorized. He had very little by way of detail.

So you say he has dementia in one post and now you’re saying he memorised answers for the debate. Not the brightest eh? I guess these are the only people left supporting trump now. Sad!

MeMen2_MoRi_

A man fit for the rocking chair and a newspaper, is trouncing Donnie by nearly double digits..

That's the story boys and girls, and if we believed everything else he's getting a cocktail of drugs that can't hide his cognitive decline and the near double digit gap in polling is still there..

Begs the question, What is wrong with Donnie he can't be seen to beat the old cognitive impaired rocking chair Joe Biden..

Also, can anyone fill us in on where near a billion dollars of campaign funds disappeared too over the last two and a bit years that has lead to near double digit trailing in the polls to sleepy Joe Biden?

John Divney

MadYaker wrote: »

So you say he has dementia in one post and now you’re saying he memorised answers for the debate. Not the brightest eh? I guess these are the only people left supporting trump now. Sad!

Do you honestly not think Biden is in a rapid cognitive decline? All politics aside, you think he’s not on the outs mentally?

Jimmy Bottlehead

John Divney wrote: »

Do you honestly not think Biden is in a rapid cognitive decline? All politics aside, you think he’s not on the outs mentally?

Have you heard Trump speak? At least Biden has a higher position to decline from. Trump has the intelligence and emotional maturity of a toddler.

Jimmy Bottlehead

spook_cook wrote: »

I'm reading this as you do think there's something up with Joe. I'm sure I won't be the only one to do so.

No. I do not believe there is something up with him, other than occasionally stumbling over his words. That doesn't indicate cognitive issues.

I'm reading the above as you trying to desperately discredit any discrediting of Trump. I'm sure I won't be the only one to do so.

John Divney

Jimmy Bottlehead wrote: »

Have you heard Trump speak? At least Biden has a higher position to decline from. Trump has the intelligence and emotional maturity of a toddler.

Yes Trump speaks in a very simplistic way. He also speaks of the cuff for hours and has the energy of a freak for a man his age. Biden of four years ago and Biden or this year is like watching a sad movie. He should never have been put in this position and if elected he won’t last the first term. You’d have to be deluded or just partisan to deny he’s going downhill rapidly. Trump has been the same asshole he’s always been.

OS_Head

MadYaker wrote: »

So you say he has dementia in one post and now you’re saying he memorised answers for the debate. Not the brightest eh? I guess these are the only people left supporting trump now. Sad!

Sure... You're sad and I'm not the brightest. But I am right and you have no argument except petty little comments. Oh... Now I'm sad.

LuckyLloyd

Are we still doing the 'sleepy Joe with his dementia hiding in his bunker' nonsense after he's robustly got through three prime time TV appearances?

Come on man.

OS_Head

MeMen2_MoRi_ wrote: »

A man fit for the rocking chair and a newspaper, is trouncing Donnie by nearly double digits..

The funny thing is you believe in the polls. What were the polls the last time. 98.5% chance that Clinton was going to win. Well that worked out well. Believe the polls at your own peril.

MeMen2_MoRi_

OS_Head wrote: »

The funny thing is you believe in the polls. What were the polls the last time. 98.5% chance that Clinton was going to win. Well that worked out well. Believe the polls at your own peril.

Thing about the polls they showed in 16 that things were changing in Donnie's favour after the first debate..

Jimmy Bottlehead

John Divney wrote: »

Yes Trump speaks in a very simplistic way. He also speaks of the cuff for hours and has the energy of a freak for a man his age. .

I don't particularly relish a man with high energy levels and low impulse control, intelligence, maturity and self-awareness being in charge of the US for another four years. It's a bad combination.

John Divney wrote: »

You’d have to be deluded or just partisan to deny he’s going downhill rapidly.

I see a man who stumbles over his speech occasionally while making points which are generally more refined than Trump's simplistic language which is, one could argue, easier to create and dictate.

However, unless you're a neurologist, neuropsychologist or similar, then your and my opinions are similarly useless, as we simply don't know whether a cognitive decline is in progress. They are uninformed subjective opinions, without professional (specifically neurological) knowledge, and therefore, again, useless.

John Divney

MeMen2_MoRi_ wrote: »

Thing about the polls they showed in 16 that things were changing in Donnie's favour after the first debate..

Bidens camp doesn’t even believe the polls

partyguinness

A cold chill swept my body at 3am this morning during the debate. It is the same chill I experienced a few days before the Brexit vote and Trump in 2016.

Trump will win.

LuckyLloyd

OS_Head wrote: »

The funny thing is you believe in the polls. What were the polls the last time. 98.5% chance that Clinton was going to win. Well that worked out well. Believe the polls at your own peril.

She was 87% at peak according to the 538 model, and only for a relatively brief period. She was a ~70% favourite on the day of the election haven floated as a ~55 - 60% favourite for much of the summer.

Biden has held a strong advantage for months; early voting is underway in record numbers; polling landscape is crucially different in that it indicates there are way less undecided available to Trump to close the gap late when compared to 2016.

But look - the above is fundamentally all the Trump fans have left. Hoping that the polls are systemically wrong and Trump can also close the margin. Because he needs *both* to happen in the last 10 days.

OS_Head

spook_cook wrote: »

If Biden loses, will he get the same blame as Hillary when she famously refused to campaign in certain swing states. In fairness I think she just wasn't arsed and thought it was in the bag though.

And seeing the Democrats have now unleashed their special weapon "Obama" on the public. If the Dems were so sure of a win like in 2016 and their Leftist MSM polls were accurate, why is he campaigning in Pennsylvania. Surely he'd be in Texas or Florida trying to flip them, you know, if the Dems lead was so high. I think their internal numbers are way different than the polls.

John Divney

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

She was 87% at peak according to the 538 model, and only for a relatively brief period. She was a ~70% favourite on the day of the election haven floated as a ~55 - 60% favourite for much of the summer.

Biden has held a strong advantage for months; early voting is underway in record numbers; polling landscape is crucially different in that it indicates there are way less undecided available to Trump to close the gap late when compared to 2016.

But look - the above is fundamentally all the Trump fans have left. Hoping that the polls are systemically wrong and Trump can also close the margin. Because he needs *both* to happen in the last 10 days.

The accurate polls from 2016 have it as a margin of error race, that’s means a Trump win in enough swing states. The early voting is good at the moment for Republicans and so is voter registration

stefanovich

partyguinness wrote: »

A cold chill swept my body at 3am this morning during the debate. It is the same chill I experienced a few days before the Brexit vote and Trump in 2016.

Trump will win.

This warms my cockles.

MeMen2_MoRi_

John Divney wrote: »

Bidens camp doesn’t even believe the polls

I'm believing that the more people vote in this election, the less chance Donnie has of winning, signs are pointing to a great turnout.

Totally ignore the polls unless they show Donnie in a good light, totally ignore the sh!t job he has done and point to the stock market, ignore wall Street when they are in favour of Biden and his economic plans. the game is understood.

Bass Reeves

It hard to see Trump winning unless the polls are totally incorrect. I predicted he win in 2016, however I cannot see him wining this time out. His major test was COVID and he flunked it. He was obessed with the stock market and as Clinton said it the economy stupid. However by his unwillingness to look at controlling the disease earlier and labeling it a mild virus has left him in off side position regarding the death rate involved. As well republican Governors took taking a higher risk strategy compared to Democratic governors has left him in a losing position.

When you look at it most Democratic potential candidates did not really contest the nomination early as they taught Trump was unbeatable this time last year. The real story is with one of the poorest candidates in the last twenty years the Democrat's will probably win the US presidency. Trump with his action has withered away his financial support and failed to consolidate a winning position form this time last year. Joe did not need to win either debate all he needed was a bit to be shown up, he refused to be bullied in the first debate and managed not to stumble in the last debate.

While Trump considers catching COVID was s possible winner for him it must have stuck in the craw of hundred of thousands even millions of Americans that he came through virtually unscathed because of his access to the best drugs and doctors. If a parent, grandparent, older aunt, uncle or even a older neighbour or friend has died of COVID you.must ask why the most wealthy country in the world has failed where other countries have not prevailed but managed it better. Trump would have no problem spending trillions on the economy or on an economic war but spending it to save ordinary American lives was beyond his imagination

LuckyLloyd

John Divney wrote: »

The accurate polls from 2016 have it as a margin of error race, that’s means a Trump win in enough swing states. The early voting is good at the moment for Republicans and so is voter registration

Yes, yes that Republican lad from Georgia with the dickie bow sees Trump with a real shot. We won't be long finding out anyway.

OS_Head

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

She was 87% at peak according to the 538 model, and only for a relatively brief period. She was a ~70% favourite on the day of the election haven floated as a ~55 - 60% favourite for much of the summer.

Biden has held a strong advantage for months; early voting is underway in record numbers; polling landscape is crucially different in that it indicates there are way less undecided available to Trump to close the gap late when compared to 2016.

But look - the above is fundamentally all the Trump fans have left. Hoping that the polls are systemically wrong and Trump can also close the margin. Because he needs *both* to happen in the last 10 days.

And look how drastically wrong they got it in 2016. The polls, run mostly by leftist organisations, have been wrong in a lot of western countries in the last decade. It is certainly a trend. It's more like the Dems are hoping the polls are systematically right which they have not been. Plus you have to acknowledge the silent majority that is claimed by the right. A lot of people are afraid to publicly proclaim their support for Trump and thus will do so in a private polling station. Getting them out to vote is crucial though.

Igotadose

partyguinness wrote: »

A cold chill swept my body at 3am this morning during the debate. It is the same chill I experienced a few days before the Brexit vote and Trump in 2016.

Trump will win.

Turn up the heat and shut the window.

if you think he'll win, take the Boards challenge - fill in the electoral map, tell us what your numbers are and how you chose the swing states.
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps

LuckyLloyd

partyguinness wrote: »

A cold chill swept my body at 3am this morning during the debate. It is the same chill I experienced a few days before the Brexit vote and Trump in 2016.

Trump will win.

Worth a couple of hundred quid punt if you believe this to be the case!

LuckyLloyd

OS_Head wrote: »

And look how drastically wrong they got it in 2016. The polls, run mostly by leftist organisations, have been wrong in a lot of western countries in the last decade. It is certainly a trend. It's more like the Dems are hoping the polls are systematically right which they have not been. Plus you have to acknowledge the silent majority that is claimed by the right. A lot of people are afraid to publicly proclaim their support for Trump and thus will do so in a private polling station. Getting them out to vote is crucial though.

The polls were not wrong in 2016. Trump was within the margin of error on election day. He lost the popular vote but scraped it by 70k votes across a handful of key swing state counties. He had a non zero chance that moved to an outside shot and he hit his ace.

The rest:

- leftist organisations
- silent Trump majorities
- Brexit being the same as 2016 being the same as 2020

is whatever. The polling / prediction landscape today is not the same as 2016. The polls are saying different things feeding into updated models that weight different variables in the context of a different incumbent / challenger and remarkably different economic / public health landscape. There's no discussion to be had about "silent majorities". I don't have to acknowledge their existence because there's no actual evidence for them. You can believe they exist just like you can believe the polls are wrong. We will soon find out...