Who thinks Trump will win?

Tell me how

ELM327 wrote: »

She's an extremist. She wont appeal to anyone except those on the extreme left and catching some of the moderate lefts.


I'm a fan of Trump and the GOP but I would prefer to see Hilary given the presidency for life than AOC getting one term.

Another reason to like her.
She makes Trump fans think like this.

Tell me how

thebestwords wrote: »

That doesn't answer the question.

I don't rate any polls that purport to paint a national view of a candidate when they are not running for a national office.

Does that answer it?

ELM327

Tell me how wrote: »

Another reason to like her.
She makes Trump fans think like this.

Ooh, edgy. That's not divisive at all.

Eric Cartman

ELM327 wrote: »

She's an extremist. She wont appeal to anyone except those on the extreme left and catching some of the moderate lefts.


I'm a fan of Trump and the GOP but I would prefer to see Hilary given the presidency for life than AOC getting one term.

AOC only appeals to a certain very hard left (by US standards) group. Thankfully she’d never survive outside the urban bubble that put her in her seat, wont be going up the totem pole any time soon

thebestwords

Tell me how wrote: »

I don't rate any polls that purport to paint a national view of a candidate when they are not running for a national office.

Does that answer it?

How convenient.

Overheal

thebestwords wrote: »

Why is her polling so bad nationally, even in her home state of NY?

.... she's a House Representative.



She represents New York's 14th district.

Call Me Jimmy

Tell me how wrote: »

Another reason to like her.
She makes Trump fans think like this.

She's a socialist... not that I want to get into that debate but, seriously? No problem with that?

Zubeneschamali

Overheal wrote: »

Ah here, that's 11 out of 45.

No, its 12 who ran and lost vs 21 who ran and won. 12 out of 32.

partyguinness

Tell me how wrote: »

• Because young people who have had to work from an early age to support their family and put themselves through college know she understands what they are going through.
• Because people who are descendants of recent immigrants know that she understands them.
• Because young females finally have someone in congress whose footsteps they could aspire to follow.
• Because people who are aware of facts know that climate action is needed and that she is one of the strongest proponents of this in congress.
• Because many of them probably actually do feel that a situation where a serious illness could likely bankrupt a family is not a good situation in the richest country in the world.

In my view, she is one of the most impressive political candidates anywhere right now and I hope we see her in congress for at least another 20 years before she attempts a run at the Presidency.

This no slight on AOC but my point is that she will not appeal in the rust belt no matter who great she is.

All those points are very sensible to us here now and in NY/San Fran but in these rust belt red States the apples do not fall far from the tree.

Igotadose

Eric Cartman wrote: »

AOC only appeals to a certain very hard left (by US standards) group. Thankfully she’d never survive outside the urban bubble that put her in her seat, wont be going up the totem pole any time soon

Ehh. Can still see her as a viable Senate candidate when Schumer retires. She might have to tone it down some. Might. Lots of recognition.

Overheal

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

She's a socialist... not that I want to get into that debate but, seriously? No problem with that?

/that debate

ohnonotgmail

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It's the same as any close election, a small number of votes decide its outcome. You can make the same statement about PR. However you have to be in position(with a solid core vote) for those few votes to count. Democracy is the best least best system.

The US election is similar in a way to ours where the majority of votes wins.

this is patently not true.

Tell me how

Eric Cartman wrote: »

AOC only appeals to a certain very hard left (by US standards) group. Thankfully she’d never survive outside the urban bubble that put her in her seat, wont be going up the totem pole any time soon

Interesting that someone with these ideas;

Because young people who have had to work from an early age to support their family and put themselves through college know she understands what they are going through.
Because people who are descendants of recent immigrants know that she understands them.
Because young females finally have someone in congress whose footsteps they could aspire to follow.
Because people who are aware of facts know that climate action is needed and that she is one of the strongest proponents of this in congress.
Because many of them probably actually do feel that a situation where a serious illness could likely bankrupt a family is not a good situation in the richest country in the world.

........would be less appealing to the American public than someone with inherited wealth, or dubious connections to corporate interests.

Let's hope the country will have largely come to its senses in about 20 years or so when I hope she runs.

As I've said before, hopefully it will come to pass that Bernie walked, so that AOC could run.

Call Me Jimmy

Overheal wrote: »

/that debate

Very nice.

LuckyLloyd

OS_Head wrote: »

That's just doublespeak. So, what was it 70% on the day or within the margin of error of 2% or 3%. Is the 70% the electoral college and 3% the popular vote? They made some big changes to the models, indicates to me that there were big errors in the models. Why then change the models so drastically if they were within the margin of error. It's all doublespeak. As it turned out, the polls at the root of all those projections in 2016 were misleading at best, and flat-out wrong at worst.

So the only thing I really got from you was, you don't really know either.

It's not doublespeak at all. You maybe don't understand how it works and you certainly don't like the projections being made.

Polls have margins of error. A huge variety of polling data feeds the models. Multiple polls showed narrow leads for Hillary on election day in 2016 within a margin of error. The model took all these polls and had it 70 : 30. Hillary had pocket Kings and Trump had a weak Ace and he hit his hand on the turn or river.

What the models have substantively changed is a greater weighting that Trump can win the electoral college without winning the popular vote. Trump did it in 2016, George W did it 2000 and before that you had to go all the way back to 1888 for an election where it happened. But now we know that Biden could win the popular vote by 4% and Trump would still have a not insignificant non zero chance of stealing the electoral college.

What I know is that as of today Biden is a strong favourite. In order to win Trump needs things to turn his direction over the remaining days. This smear campaign would need to start gaining actual traction with undecided voters like the Comey stuff did four years ago to the extent 80%+ break his way and some sliver of Biden's support change intention.

But even that probably isn't enough. Trump needs that and he needs the polls to still be wrong in a systemic way. Maybe because it underestimates a huge wave of shy Trump voters, something like that.

So Trump fans like yourself can keep saying "but the polls were wrong four years ago" and waffle about the huge silent majority of Trump fans afraid to state their preference because they've been cowed by the nasty liberals, etc. That's up to you. 538 is still giving Trump a 12 in 100 chance and - however that manifests itself - you can do a victory lap on Wednesday week if it comes through.

thebestwords

Her green new deal was so radical her own PR people went on national TV about it to lie shamelessly and claim Republicans altered the document before taking the document offline themselves and walking back demands. Hasn't owned up to it or claimed any responsibly since, zero accountability. She retweeted the lies on twitter.

Here's her NYC poll when she decided to run amazon out of town, costing thousands of jobs and billions of potential income.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/434654-poll-38-percent-blame-ocasio-cortez-for-new-york-losing-amazon-hq-deal

Almost 40 percent of New York voters in a new poll believe Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) bears responsibility as a "villain" in Amazon's decision to back out of its plan to put a second headquarters in Queens.

The Siena College poll, which was released on Monday, found that 38 percent of respondents thought of the freshman lawmaker as a "villain" when they were asked to consider her role in the tech giant's exit.

The survey asked respondents to identify figures in the Amazon debate as either a hero, villain or role player. Twelve percent called Ocasio-Cortez a hero, while 24 percent said she was a role player.

Siena College found that 67 percent of respondents viewed Amazon's exit as a detrimental move for the state.

MeMen2_MoRi_

It's funny the hate AOC gets from the GOP politicians/fan base, she has done the mantra of the GOP by "pulling herself up by the boot straps" from waitressing to congresswoman, yet they make fun of her telling her she needs to back to waitressing?

I smell a strong wiff of fear in the air, life is about progress not standing still.

Call Me Jimmy

MeMen2_MoRi_ wrote: »

It's funny the hate AOC gets from the GOP politicians/fan base, she has done the mantra of the GOP by "pulling herself up by the boot straps" from waitressing to congresswoman, yet they make fun of her telling her she needs to back to waitressing?

I smell a strong wiff of fear in the air, life is about progress not standing still.

It's not hate for AOC, it's a simple ideological opposition to socialism. It's not hard to understand, I'm actually surprised anyone on here is that far gone.

Igotadose

thebestwords wrote: »

Siena College found that 67 percent of respondents viewed Amazon's exit as a detrimental move for the state.

What matters is, will she get reelected in her district in 2020. Seems like that's a foregone conclusion.

So, she's going to be around for the next 2 years and probably a lot more as long as she's willing to stay in the Congress.

But, this isn't the AOC thread, it's the #IMPOTUS thread.

Overheal

thebestwords wrote: »

Her green new deal was so radical her own PR people went on national TV about it to lie shamelessly and claim Republicans altered the document before taking the document offline themselves and walking back demands. Hasn't owned up to it or claimed any responsibly since, zero accountability. She retweeted the lies on twitter.

Here's her NYC poll when she decided to run amazon out of town, costing thousands of jobs and billions of potential income.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/434654-poll-38-percent-blame-ocasio-cortez-for-new-york-losing-amazon-hq-deal

Almost 40 percent of New York voters in a new poll believe Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) bears responsibility as a "villain" in Amazon's decision to back out of its plan to put a second headquarters in Queens.

The Siena College poll, which was released on Monday, found that 38 percent of respondents thought of the freshman lawmaker as a "villain" when they were asked to consider her role in the tech giant's exit.

The survey asked respondents to identify figures in the Amazon debate as either a hero, villain or role player. Twelve percent called Ocasio-Cortez a hero, while 24 percent said she was a role player.

Siena College found that 67 percent of respondents viewed Amazon's exit as a detrimental move for the state.

"The survey asked respondents to identify figures in the Amazon debate as either a hero, villain or role player. "

LOL what? Seems like an awfully loaded polling question.

Humilde

I don't like Trump one bit. But I think he is going to win. The democrats have really screwed up by putting Biden forward. Just as they did with Hilary. The left is imploding all over the world, since they became extreme, bringing in abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage etc.

MeMen2_MoRi_

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

It's not hate for AOC, it's a simple ideological opposition to socialism. It's not hard to understand, I'm actually surprised anyone on here is that far gone.

It maybe your position that it's ideological hate.. the GOP hate her.

Call Me Jimmy

MeMen2_MoRi_ wrote: »

It maybe your position that it's ideological hate.. the GOP hate her.

I'm willing to assume they don't like socialism either.

But yea she does a kind of trumpian trolling and I'm sure people on the right get involved with it.

Overheal

Humilde wrote: »

I don't like Trump one bit. But I think he is going to win. The democrats have really screwed up by putting Biden forward. Just as they did with Hilary. The left is imploding all over the world, since they became extreme, bringing in abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage etc.

Nah.

With Hillary you had some honestly shady behavior like deleting emails, blackberries etc. alongside never ending probes into her (Benghazi Benghazi Benghazi), Uranium One (Russia Russia Russia) threats to impeach her if elected even.

She still won the popular vote by 2.1% and only lost by 80,000 key votes.

Not nearly the same concerted storm of shyte against Biden. He's all but certain to win unless something changes drastically in the next week.

Tell me how

Humilde wrote: »

I don't like Trump one bit. But I think he is going to win. The democrats have really screwed up by putting Biden forward. Just as they did with Hilary. The left is imploding all over the world, since they became extreme, bringing in abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage etc.

Let's hope you are as wrong about the election as you are about the view that the Left is imploding world wide.

Overheal

Yeah became 'extreme,' bring in Women's right to choose, Right to die with dignity, and marriage equality. ****ing lunatics, obviously.

MeMen2_MoRi_

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

I'm willing to assume they don't like socialism either.

But yea she does a kind of trumpian trolling and I'm sure people on the right get involved with it.

Google Ted yoho and AOC..

Tell me how

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

It's not hate for AOC, it's a simple ideological opposition to socialism. It's not hard to understand, I'm actually surprised anyone on here is that far gone.

For me, it shouldn't be that hard to understand how a system where one person can increase their wealth by $74B while 20,000 of their workers contract Covid-19 is not in the best interest of society.

I'm all for entrepreneurship, people profiting from their skill, efforts and ideas but the pendulum has swung too far in one direction and needs to be pulled back a bit.

What is strange is when people who are closer to being among the 20,000 than the elite, are advocating for a continuation of the same system which allowed this to develop.

Igotadose

Humilde wrote: »

I don't like Trump one bit. But I think he is going to win. The democrats have really screwed up by putting Biden forward. Just as they did with Hilary. The left is imploding all over the world, since they became extreme, bringing in abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage etc.

So, take the challenge: fill out the election tracker and tell us how you chose the swing states.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps

MeMen2_MoRi_

Humilde wrote: »

I don't like Trump one bit. But I think he is going to win. The democrats have really screwed up by putting Biden forward. Just as they did with Hilary. The left is imploding all over the world, since they became extreme, bringing in abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage etc.

They didn't fcuk up, why?

Because all of this socialism, radical left bull that is coming out of Donnie's mouth would be seen to have a grain of truth in it if it was Bernie Sanders stood against Donnie.