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Who thinks Trump will win?

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    #6602
    AlphaDelta1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 477 ✭✭AlphaDelta1


    Igotadose wrote: »
    Sigh. This again.

    Feel free to look through this thread on the polling and betting. The polls weren't innacurate in 2016. The shy voters are accounted for. The money moving appears to be sucker bets (big odds on a longshot)

    Hope that helps, oh new poster to this forum.

    Ok sorry I didn't read back through the whole thread. It's a simple question no need to be so short with me.


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    #6603
    newhouse87
    Registered Users Posts: 2,469 ✭✭✭newhouse87


    gmisk wrote: »
    Oh yeah I don't disagree.
    I just think a lot of the polling companies have changed their practices to account for that possibility.
    I also think (and hope!) Biden will just about win, but we will see!

    yeah you would imagine they have changed practice alright. At least with biden there will be less divisiveness and less american news over here.


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    #6604
    Igotadose
    Registered Users Posts: 13,592 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    newhouse87 wrote: »
    yeah you would imagine they have changed practice alright. At least with biden there will be less divisiveness and less american news over here.

    One thing I found amazing at the 1st debate was Biden saying 'we'd mandate mask wearing in Federal facilities.'

    I thought, "You mean, there isn't one in place already?!" Well, best as I can determine, there isn't.

    I mean, really. I can rock up to the Capitol spraying virus throughout the facility (which, tbf, might be closed to tourists now. So, choose a federal courthouse where I might have to be on a Jury.) And yeah, I'm not required to use a mask. Nor are the employees. No mandate from the #IMPOTUS administration.

    Awesome. The winning gets tiring.


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    #6605
    the whole year inn
    Registered Users Posts: 7,099 ✭✭✭the whole year inn


    Igotadose wrote: »
    Sigh. This again.

    Feel free to look through this thread on the polling and betting. The polls weren't innacurate in 2016. The shy voters are accounted for. The money moving appears to be sucker bets (big odds on a longshot)

    Hope that helps, oh new poster to this forum.

    Didn't every poll have Hillary as winner bar one ?
    7/4 is not a longshot


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    #6606
    gmisk
    Registered Users Posts: 33,125 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    the whole year inn wrote: »
    Didn't every poll have Hillary as winner bar one ?
    7/4 is not a longshot
    I have no idea, but I think a lot of them were somewhat within the margin of error? As mentioned already pollsters have changed their practices to account for the so called shy trump voter.

    It is a long shot.... in a two horse race.


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    #6607
    Timberrrrrrrr
    Registered Users Posts: 25,592 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    the whole year inn wrote: »
    Didn't every poll have Hillary as winner bar one ?
    7/4 is not a longshot

    It is when your opponent in a 2 horse race is 4/9


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    #6608
    Princess Consuela Bananahammock
    Registered Users Posts: 33,496 ✭✭✭✭Princess Consuela Bananahammock


    AlphaDelta1 wrote: »
    A lot of betting money moving towards Trump in the last 48 hrs. I don't get it. Are the polls as inaccurate as 2016 again? I thought the pollsters had built in for the shy Trump vote also?

    THe margin is higher than it was four years agao and polls have claimed to be more accurate (whether or not they are is open to debate).

    People betting on Trump is a different thing though. Betting logic can be anything. The polls are not calculated on where people are better, it's where they plan to vote.

    Everything I don't like is either woke or fascist - possibly both - pick one.



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    #6609
    Princess Consuela Bananahammock
    Registered Users Posts: 33,496 ✭✭✭✭Princess Consuela Bananahammock


    Silentcorner wrote: »
    That poster has accused me of confirmation bias numerous times, which is fine by me, a media bubble is the same thing.

    I have said, on this thread, repeatedly that my opinion is not based on any polling it is based my own belief, I may very well be wrong, which I have also stated a few times.

    Em... that's EXACLTLY what confirmation bias is!! You form a belief based on opinon and not on logic research and informed thinking. You then go looking for the "research" that backs up you belief afterwards.

    Thank you for finally admitting it.

    Everything I don't like is either woke or fascist - possibly both - pick one.



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    #6610
    Outlaw Pete
    Registered Users Posts: 10,423 ✭✭✭✭Outlaw Pete


    More white liberals telling black people how to think.


    https://twitter.com/NickAdamsinUSA/status/1320107197834158085


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    #6611
    Princess Consuela Bananahammock
    Registered Users Posts: 33,496 ✭✭✭✭Princess Consuela Bananahammock


    Outlaw Pete wrote: »
    More white liberals telling black people how to think.


    https://twitter.com/NickAdamsinUSA/status/1320107197834158085

    No - one white liberal. And I'm not even sure I'd agree with you that she's liberal (would depend on whether you mena liberal as in political or social).

    Everything I don't like is either woke or fascist - possibly both - pick one.



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    #6612
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,280 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    Outlaw Pete wrote: »
    More white liberals telling black people how to think.


    https://twitter.com/NickAdamsinUSA/status/1320107197834158085

    The democrats are really pissed that trump is an ‘opportunity for all’ president focussed on black unemployment rather than a ‘stay quiet and have your welfare’ like the democrats


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    #6613
    Timberrrrrrrr
    Registered Users Posts: 25,592 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    Outlaw Pete wrote: »
    More white liberals telling black people how to think.


    https://twitter.com/NickAdamsinUSA/status/1320107197834158085

    Who is she? How many people will she reach? Do you think that this one woman will change the minds of millions?


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    #6614
    alchemist33
    Registered Users Posts: 10,969 ✭✭✭✭alchemist33


    Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »
    Who is she? How many people will she reach? Do you think that this one woman will change the minds of millions?

    Google tells me she's 50 Cents ex girlfriend and she's mad at him because he urged people to vote Trump because of Biden's tax plans. Biden's tax plans will affect people who earn over 400k per year, like 50 Cent, but not the people he's urging to vote Trump. Great to see her calling him out on that.


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    #6615
    Princess Consuela Bananahammock
    Registered Users Posts: 33,496 ✭✭✭✭Princess Consuela Bananahammock


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    Its really not. What have the democrats actually done to increase black employment in the US, what policies are not based in handing out free welfare or pulling black people up the ladder over others ?

    Donald trump encouraged equality of opportunity, democrats encourage equality of outcome

    These are differetn statements to the ones you made realier: you commented on Trump with regard to employment, not the Democrats. And the democrts on welfare is just an extension of your everything-left-of-centre-is-welfare-handouts agenda.

    Nor is there anything to back up your point: another user who doesn't think they need to post evidence because there IS No evidence. And without evidence or research we can have no debate. No one's going to take your word for it.

    So yeah - aimed at winding up, not encouraging debate.

    Everything I don't like is either woke or fascist - possibly both - pick one.



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    #6616
    Timberrrrrrrr
    Registered Users Posts: 25,592 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    alchemist33 wrote: »
    Google tells me she's 50 Cents ex girlfriend and she's mad at him because he urged people to vote Trump because of Biden's tax plans. Biden's tax plans will affect people who earn over 400k per year, like 50 Cent, but not the people he's urging to vote Trump. Great to see her calling him out on that.

    Yeah i had to Google her

    Here's what she said
    'Hey f**ker! I will pay your taxes in exchange for you coming to your senses. Happily! Black lives matter. That’s you, f**ker! Remember?' 


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    #6617
    BaZmO*
    Registered Users Posts: 18,625 ✭✭✭✭BaZmO*


    the whole year inn wrote: »
    Didn't every poll have Hillary as winner bar one ?
    7/4 is not a longshot

    I was listening to an interesting podcast on this very topic the other day. Back in 2016 the pollsters had Hillary at 45% in a swing state and Trump at something like 41% and undecided at 14%. Hillary still got the 45% but Trump won on something like 53% due to the undecideds.

    Generally speaking you can argue that polls are right for the time that they are taken but circumstances change.


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    #6618
    Silentcorner
    Registered Users Posts: 6,506 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »
    Em... that's EXACLTLY what confirmation bias is!! You form a belief based on opinon and not on logic research and informed thinking. You then go looking for the "research" that backs up you belief afterwards.

    Thank you for finally admitting it.

    So all opinions are just confirmation bias then? Including yours....

    I had no idea Trump was so popular in the Black community not too long ago, I do now....you still have your head in the sand so you are not in any position to be navel gazing at anyone...


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    #6619
    Silentcorner
    Registered Users Posts: 6,506 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    The democrats are really pissed that trump is an ‘opportunity for all’ president focussed on black unemployment rather than a ‘stay quiet and have your welfare’ like the democrats

    The Liberals really hate Black people who don't think the way they want them to...they call them grifters!!!!

    The famous you ain't black f##k up!



    Come on man!!!


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    #6620
    astrofool
    Registered Users Posts: 16,731 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Silentcorner wrote: »
    The Liberals really hate Black people who don't think the way they want them to...they call them grifters!!!!

    The famous you ain't black f##k up!
    Come on man!!!

    You're correct, no one should vote for a racist like Trump, regardless of ethnicity.

    I do like your "I never realised he was so popular" which actually = as popular as previous GOP candidates, which is not very popular at all, and implies that the support is for the party not the person (as the person is pretty nasty to any ethnicities other than his own).


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    #6621
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,698 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    Its really not. What have the democrats actually done to increase black employment in the US, what policies are not based in handing out free welfare or pulling black people up the ladder over others ?

    Donald trump encouraged equality of opportunity, democrats encourage equality of outcome

    Here is unemployment graphed by various demographics.

    Note the trend in unemployment which Obama started and which continued under Trump.

    1105.jpeg

    Can you tell us what exactly Trump did to create such great opportunities for black people or was it, in reality, more a case of staying the fcuk away from it and allowing Obama's work to continue?


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    #6622
    newhouse87
    Registered Users Posts: 2,469 ✭✭✭newhouse87


    Tell me how wrote: »
    Here is unemployment graphed by various demographics.

    Note the trend in unemployment which Obama started and which continued under Trump.

    1105.jpeg

    Can you tell us what exactly Trump did to create such great opportunities for black people or was it, in reality, more a case of staying the fcuk away from it and allowing Obama's work to continue?

    No president is responsible for anything going by your logic so. Its the preceding president who done all the work negative or positive.


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    #6623
    Pompey Magnus
    Registered Users Posts: 5,406 ✭✭✭Pompey Magnus


    Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »
    Who is she? How many people will she reach? Do you think that this one woman will change the minds of millions?

    She has 8 million twitter followers so she's not a nobody.


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    #6624
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,698 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    newhouse87 wrote: »
    No president is responsible for anything going by your logic so. Its the preceding president who done all the work negative or positive.

    Check out the transition from Bush to Obama and come back to me on that.


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    #6625
    newhouse87
    Registered Users Posts: 2,469 ✭✭✭newhouse87


    Tell me how wrote: »
    Check out the transition from Bush to Obama and come back to me on that.

    Its your logic not mine, simple fact is african americans had lowest ever unemployment under trump, thats not up for debate.


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    #6626
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,698 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    newhouse87 wrote: »
    Its your logic not mine, simple fact is african americans had lowest ever unemployment under trump, thats not up for debate.

    Thanks to the polices of Obama, that's not up for debate.


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    #6627
    newhouse87
    Registered Users Posts: 2,469 ✭✭✭newhouse87


    Tell me how wrote: »
    Thanks to the polices of Obama, that's not up for debate.

    Yes it is, obama policies are not a fact just your opinion for the reason of such low unemployment , lowest unemployment numbers for african americans under trump are a fact.


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    #6628
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,698 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    newhouse87 wrote: »
    Yes it is, obama policies are not a fact just your opinion for the reason of such low unemployment , lowest unemployment numbers for african americans under trump are a fact.

    You should get someone to explain to you how graphs work and the significance of the direction of the lines on them. It's clear you didn't/can't understand the above.


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    #6629
    newhouse87
    Registered Users Posts: 2,469 ✭✭✭newhouse87


    Tell me how wrote: »
    You should get someone to explain to you how graphs work and the significance of the direction of the lines on them. It's clear you didn't/can't understand the above.

    Its clear you think your opinion is fact, when it clearly isnt. Im speaking on facts unlike you who is speaking on beliefs.


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    #6630
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,698 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    If your facts are correct, then the employment drop from 08 happened without influence of Obama and if so then Trump has no claim for bringing it to historically low levels.

    Which is it? Trump has no responsibility for the low figures, or the low figures are in thanks to the policies of Obama?


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    #6631
    newhouse87
    Registered Users Posts: 2,469 ✭✭✭newhouse87


    Tell me how wrote: »
    If your facts are correct, then the employment drop from 08 happened without influence of Obama and if so then Trump has no claim for bringing it to historically low levels.

    Which is it? Trump has no responsibility for the low figures, or the low figures are in thanks to the policies of Obama?

    My facts are correct, never claimed trump was responsible just stated a fact. Cant just credit obama with anything positive that happened under trump's presidency its disingenuous. BTW i think trump is a moron but i dont view things through tinted glasses on either side.


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