Who thinks Trump will win?

Tony EH

briany wrote: »

Bernie Sanders probably *is* a step too far. If right wingers are happy to call Biden a socialist, then god knows what they'd call Sanders if it were he contesting the presidential election or became president. The sky would be the limit, I think.

And the pushback against Sanders from the Republicans and centre-right Democrats would be such that a Sanders presidency would find it hard to achieve much of what it set out to and maybe even cause America to lurch way back to the right again.

I don't think it's unbearably socialist of Bernie Sanders pointing out that most other developed countries have a decent public health option to the point that they don't have to worry much about predatory health insurance countries looking for any excuse not to cover them, or allow the disgusting profiteering that goes on within the American pharmaceutical industry, but that's where the U.S. is and where it's been for quite a long time.

It wouldn't have mattered who the Dems put forward, the Reps would still have shouted "Socialist". It's the easiest call they have for the simple minded.

To the more intelligent minded, it still would ring quite hollow.

However, the point is that the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are pretty much similar entities, with the tiniest of separations. So anyone expecting a shake up under Biden is in for a shock and that goes for both "sides". There'll be no communist revolution and no real improvement for the millions of underclass that populate America.

The only thing that the country will be rid of is Trump, his malignant divisiveness and his ugly, hollow, narcissistic, politics, which is enough for some I suppose.

ebbsy

Polls were wrong the last time, people didn't fall for it, they might not this time either.

I've no problem with somebody having a different take on this, just can they please back it up with something other than abuse.

Call Me Jimmy

briany wrote: »

I don't think it's unbearably socialist of Bernie Sanders pointing out that most other developed countries have a decent public health option to the point that they don't have to worry much about predatory health insurance countries looking for any excuse not to cover them, or allow the disgusting profiteering that goes on within the American pharmaceutical industry, but that's where the U.S. is and where it's been for quite a long time.

People can't help but notice that he is and always has been a socialist and they find that to be disqualifying for obvious reasons. Even left leaning people often have a problem with that. But yea, some people on the right will call anything that walks socialist.

gmisk

ebbsy wrote: »

Polls were wrong the last time, people didn't fall for it, they might not this time either.

I've no problem with somebody having a different take on this, just can they please back it up with something other than abuse.

I think a lot of the polls the last time were within the margin of error.
Polling companies have also changed their practices to account for the so called Trump shy voters

https://www.newsday.com/news/nation/trump-voters-polling-accuracy-1.50032400

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/2020-polls-trump-hidden-voters-us-election-b1351300.html

briany

ebbsy wrote: »

Polls were wrong the last time, people didn't fall for it, they might not this time either.

I've no problem with somebody having a different take on this, just can they please back it up with something other than abuse.

As has been exhaustively pointed out, the polls weren't actually wrong the last time (they were correct within the margin of error), but the analysis was lacking. Even so, the reports are that pollsters are being very conservative with their polling and analysts are attempting to factor in things which they overlooked last time. They have had four years, after all, to ruminate on it.

The political dark matter of the much-vaunted 'shy Trump voter' is the main thing being touted as evidence of another possible upset, but even then it's not really evidence as it's unquantifiable if they're not telling pollsters. The problem is that it would have to be that this alleged voter contingent has actually increased in number quite substantially because a few states (e.g. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan) that went Trump last time are now polling for Biden beyond the margin of error.

UrbanSprawl

ebbsy wrote: »

Polls were wrong the last time, people didn't fall for it, they might not this time either.

I've no problem with somebody having a different take on this, just can they please back it up with something other than abuse.

trumps a cert imo the movement behing is real and huge 100k streaming his covid ralies trumps not letting the virus interfere with his agenda might backfire might not but positivity is the way out trumps opposed to lockdowns as am i

You would wonder what the jaysus the democrats are at having absolutely nobody turning up to the Biden events.. surely they could have rounded up a couple of thousand to go to them..

I wonder was it down to trying to avoid sensory overload for poor aul Joe?..

Eric Cartman

jmayo wrote: »

As opposed to the way we could sum up why some of the people would vote Trump
- my grand pappy and his mates God bless them used to put those N****s in their place by hanging a few of them, especially if they looked at one of our women and Trump hates those N***** loving BLM communists
- Trump is going to guarantee our guns unlike those commie Democrats
- Trump may be a multi divorced womanising pervert, his daughter is a Jew lover, but he will stack the Supreme Court with people that will make our country once again a good God fearing one.
- Trump is anti communist - he will get rid of that communist Obama healthcare
- Trump don't like those foreigners and we hate foreigners
- Trump will cuts taxes for the rich and we rich people don't want to pay any taxes.
- Trump is a great leader because he says so
- Trump is a great businessman and he will make America great again

And lastly you might possibly find just a few with a semi functioning brain, that aren't racist, that aren't connected and rich looking for tax breaks, that don't want to keep their arsenal of weapons, that don't believe that some mythical being created the planet less than 10,000 years ago that might actually vote for Trump.

But seriously, unlike last time, only a complete moron or someone of the vested interests above, should vote for a moron that has done nothing but drag America's world standing down into the gutter, has sat idly by watching hundreds of thousands of his citizens die whilst rubbishing the efforts of scientists and medical professionals, tried to destroy the independence of state agencies such as the FBI, has refused to condemn racists groups and has tried to undermine America's democracy itself.

I am trying to figure out which class of moron some of the Trump supporters here fall into.
Hell we can have a competition on that.

I don't know why you keep bringing up the communist thing as If thats something new. Ever since the 70s-80s US politics has always been about painting one side as nazis and one side as communists (the two unequivocally equally worst most disgusting things a person can be). Every candidate has done it to a degree.

Trump has straightforwardly condemned white supremacists, David duke, racist groups etc.. atleast 20 times at this point. I don't know why anyone persists with this.

gmisk

UrbanSprawl wrote: »

trumps a cert imo the movement behing is real and huge 100k streaming his covid ralies trumps not letting the virus interfere with his agenda might backfire might not but positivity is the way out trumps opposed to lockdowns as am i

You saying he is a cert because he is getting a lot of people streaming his "covid rallies" doesn't make a huge amount of sense. 100k isn't that many people in such a big country.
The fact you refer to them as "covid rallies" is however accurate and telling, he is selfishly going ahead with these large rallies despite being against all the public health advice.

What the latest on votes cast...60 million?
If anything my confidence has increased in Biden winning the last few weeks. The huge turnouts especially by the looks of it from young people is telling.

gmisk

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You would wonder what the jaysus the democrats are at having absolutely nobody turning up to the Biden events.. surely they could have rounded up a couple of thousand to go to them..

I wonder was it down to trying to avoid sensory overload for poor aul Joe?..

Following the public health advice for the good of the country maybe? Mad idea I know.

The second paragraph is in my opinion pathetic and doesn't warrant a response.

Outlaw Pete

Tell me how wrote: »

Sure Pete. The 215 indictments for Trump people in connection with this, the trials, convictions and prison sentences were all a hoax.

Show me just ONE of those 215 who were members of the Trump campaign and were charged with conspiring with Russia to interfere in the 2016 election.

Zico

Hilary Clinton and Benghazi is proof that Hunter Biden and 6G, China, Iran, North Korea with the wind farms created Covid to stop the return of Jesus Christ..

Tell me how

ebbsy wrote: »

Polls were wrong the last time, people didn't fall for it, they might not this time either.

I've no problem with somebody having a different take on this, just can they please back it up with something other than abuse.

In 2016, HC was a polarising figure, the FBI muddied the water significantly in the days before the election, Trump talked a big game (Build the wall, Lock her Up, Drain the Swamp), the polls showed a HC lead but within a reasonable margin for error in a lot of locations which actually came to pass.

This time round, Trump cannot hide how he has performed as President. The impact of Covid 19 and the theatre in which it played out, with Trump as the central character was some of the greatest self-sabotage of any President since Nixon. 215 indictments have been served on the Trump administration contacts leading to trials, convictions and prison sentences. Trumps comments on military members has to have hit hard with even the most patriotic flag waving American. He failed to build the wall, lock Hillary up or drain the swamp but instead appointed family members (for who he had to pull rank in order to get them security clearance) to key positions as well as appointing big donors to significant roles while the rest of his staff was noteworthy by the number of people who left their roles quickly with harsh words for the President while doing so. He has proven to have made untruthful comments at least 20,000 times (in public) while President and his willingness to broadcast/push fake news led to Twitter flagging some of his content as such. Trump's reaction to BLM protests and particularly his desire for a physical response equally is unlikely to have won him favour with anyone still on the fence about him. The GOP machine has all but abandoned him at this point with support largely coming from very red state B-List celebrities or die cast members of his fan club. One of the most prominent producers of any Trump material has been an organisation founded by life long Republicans, The Lincoln Project, who have produced very evocative messages as to the Presidents failings and these guys are no CNN mouthpieces, they would have had the lines of communication and ears of many significant groups and people within Republican circles. Large turn out has historically indicated favour amongst democrat candidates and at this point, a week out from the election early voting figures in many locations have surpassed total early voting numbers from 2016. Early in the summer, everyone said, Trump will destroy Biden in the debates, when it actually came to the debates, Trump again didn't attract any new voters with his behaviour in the first one, he pulled out of the second one and by even the most generous judgement, barely managed a draw in the third. Not to mention the above, the uncovering of the fact that Trump paid only $750 dollars of tax in some of the years he was President must have been soul destroying for people struggling to maintain a reasonable quality of living. His mismanagement of the Covid 19 pandemic revealed not only had he discounted and ignored a pandemic response playbook left by the previous administration, but he further scuppered US efforts by closing offices specifically there to help in the event of such outbreaks. His monumental failing in this space was highlighted and underlined in having a White House event which became the most noteworthy super spreader event world wide with many in attendance contracting the disease which he did himself and while still suffering from it, subjected his staff to the risks of infection through not observing basic isolation protocol. He demonstrated incredible weakness throughout his Presidency when dealing with challenges by the press to the point of demanding an easy interview from 60 Minutes and walking out when he saw he wasn't getting it leading to an other example of his fascist intent in lamenting that the media could not be stopped from reporting on facts which affect the nation. His ring of confidants an supporters has dwindled in numbers year by year and particularly over the last 8 months leading to the final pathetic attempt at a favourable news story being 'managed' and broken by Rudy Giuliani after even the most favourable Trump media outlet, Fox News, showed even they felt the story was too far fetched for them to break.

He won nearly 3M less popular votes in 2016 when appearing as an anti-establishment, 'successful' business man who talked the talk, this time round, his desire to be the centre of attention means that all of the above is in plain sight for everyone with even a passing interest in politics and current affairs and while he will retain the hardcore Republican vote, I think he is unlikely to win many more votes of anyone who considers themselves anything other than being in such a group.
They will never be able to take his portrait down from the walls of the White House, or remove his name from the list of US Presidents but they can start by repairing the damage he has done to the office next Tuesday in voting him out.

His only path to victory, in my view, is if Democrats decided the race is won and they don't bother voting but given the record numbers thus far, I am hopeful that that will not happen, or that Trump and his minions will seek to influence vote counting in swing states which is not to be ruled out but I am confident that it will not be possible for them to do so without even some Republican minded individuals balking at his final act of defecation on the office he currently holds.

Outlaw Pete

This Pollster called a Trump win in 2016 and he's calling it again:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bqldTcrMW0

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1320400700216627207

astrofool

Donny's supporters dropping like flies, will he withdraw out of embarrassment at this stage?

https://twitter.com/50cent/status/1320184040654295040

Timberrrrrrrr

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

This Pollster called a Trump win in 2016 and he's calling it again:


https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1320400700216627207

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bqldTcrMW0

Its amazing how polls/pollsters are quoted by you and other Trump supporters when it suits you, tomorrow if someone posts a poll/pollster that says Trump will lose you will tell us that the only poll that matters is on November third.

Manach

So to cut rhought the wall of text and be succient. From an Irish perspective one can only judge President Trump from how he handles foreign affaris. On that he has successfully overcame the failled politcy initivties of his predecezor by projecting US strenght in a complex multi-polar world. As well he has not neglicted the arts of peace as evidenced by his variously backed normalisation between Arabs and Israel and not persued war for war's sake as other Republican, facing down the militray-industrial complex.

Tell me how

Manach wrote: »

So to cut rhought the wall of text and be succient. From an Irish perspective one can only judge President Trump from how he handles foreign affaris. On that he has successfully overcame the failled politcy initivties of his predecezor by projecting US strenght in a complex multi-polar world. As well he has not neglicted the arts of peace as evidenced by his variously backed normalisation between Arabs and Israel and not persued war for war's sake as other Republican, facing down the militray-industrial complex.

No.

astrofool

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

This Pollster called a Trump win in 2016 and he's calling it again:

Polls really not looking good for Trump, how much will you lose on this?
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1320806076946747392

Eric Cartman

astrofool wrote: »

Polls really not looking good for Trump, how much will you lose on this?
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1320806076946747392

we know its not going to be that far either. Even if Biden wins it'll be by less than 320 , trump will take over 220. Bidden winning is not completely sure, and its 100% not going to be the landslide you and many others hope for, by the end of this election a minimum of 40% of people who vote in America will be choosing Donald trump.

Tell me how

Eric Cartman wrote: »

we know its not going to be that far either. Even if Biden wins it'll be by less than 320 , trump will take over 220. Bidden winning is not completely sure, and its 100% not going to be the landslide you and many others hope for, by the end of this election a minimum of 40% of people who vote in America will be choosing Donald trump.

That is because of the polarised state of US politics.

40% Democrat
40% Republican
10% Seriously consider candidates
10% Susceptible to breaking news

At this point, I think the biggest deciding factor in determining the winner is which side can be most motivated to vote given turnout hasn't been above 60% in over 50 years.

That's why Trump is still in with a shout, not because of movement of voters.

cameramonkey

Manach wrote: »

So to cut rhought the wall of text and be succient. From an Irish perspective one can only judge President Trump from how he handles foreign affaris.

Why? We can judge him anyway we like just like the people in the US.

Outlaw Pete

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Its amazing how polls/pollsters are quoted by you and other Trump supporters when it suits you, tomorrow if someone posts a poll/pollster that says Trump will lose you will tell us that the only poll that matters is on November third.

Difference being, I'm quoting someone who got it right in 2016 (calling a Trump win) whereas as you lot are quoting the same polls that got it spectacularly wrong.

astrofool wrote: »

Polls really not looking good for Trump, how much will you lose on this?
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1320806076946747392

One from each account:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/795667284127645696
https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/795813773676265472

vojiwox

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Difference being, I'm quoting someone who got it right in 2016 (calling a Trump win) whereas as you lot are quoting the same polls that got it spectacularly wrong.



One from each account:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/795667284127645696
https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/795813773676265472

Didn't realise the polls were so close then. The way people talk about them.

vojiwox

astrofool wrote: »

Donny's supporters dropping like flies, will he withdraw out of embarrassment at this stage?

https://twitter.com/50cent/status/1320184040654295040

Is 50 cent saying Trump had his mate killed?

vojiwox

vojiwox wrote: »

Is 50 cent saying Trump had his mate killed?

50 cent is saying whatever to shut his ex up..

briany

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Difference being, I'm quoting someone who got it right in 2016 (calling a Trump win) whereas as you lot are quoting the same polls that got it spectacularly wrong.



One from each account:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/795667284127645696
https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/795813773676265472

Allan Lichtman, the professor who developed a "13 key" system to predict the next president has been correct every election since 1984. In 2016, his system agreed with your poll. In 2020, his system predicts Trump will lose.

https://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/democracy/this-time-i-predict-trump-will-lose-4708/

Manic Moran

Tony EH wrote: »

It wouldn't have mattered who the Dems put forward, the Reps would still have shouted "Socialist". It's the easiest call they have for the simple minded.

To the more intelligent minded, it still would ring quite hollow.

However, the point is that the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are pretty much similar entities, with the tiniest of separations.

I don't think the voters see it that way.

Note how we're still talking about Trump getting about half the states. Why? Do the people of those States really think that Trump is Presidential material? Or is it that they utterly dislike the policies of the opposition so much that they will flat refuse to vote for them?

Within my lifetime, every state was winnable between the parties. Texas voted for Carter. New York voted for Reagan. West, By God, Virginia voted for Dukakis when California voted for Bush. Tennessee voted for Clinton. So did Arkansas, of course, Clinton's home state but can you imagine a California Republican carrying California today?

Both parties have moved, remember this sort of image?


Has any Democrat since Obama referred to the US as a plural? Remember when Reagan signed the prohibition on sale of new machineguns? Recall W Clinton claiming to made the strongest commitment to fighting illegal immigration, and doing more at the border to deter it than any administration in history? Can you imagine those positions being of the respective parties today? Recall Ginsburg being voted in almost unanimously?

We used to, if not have common ground between parties, at least be tolerably close enough and able to come to some form of compromise. The parties have entrenched their positions so far apart from each other that half the country would rather see Trump in the White House for another administration than a Democrat, flaws and all.

Outlaw Pete

vojiwox wrote: »

Is 50 cent saying Trump had his mate killed?

Scarface quote.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsboRHGzn2g

Tony EH

Manic Moran wrote: »

I don't think the voters see it that way.

Of course they don't. They've been conned into thinking that they are voting for "their" team. When in reality, the waving a flag for Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee.

American politics is a coin flip. There may be two sides, but it's still the same penny.