Who thinks Trump will win?

EasycomeEasygo

8-10 wrote: »

Doesn't tell you who they voted for though!

I never said it did, it is party registration for the early ballots

ohnonotgmail

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

The rules were agreed before the first debate took place, this happens every presidential election

do you have a link to the rules that trump and biden agreed to?

gmisk

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

they are saving it all for a big expose on the 4th.

The smoking guns are coming...2 weeks....oh I mean 2 days....lol... laughable.
The charade with tucker(not to be taken seriously as per his own network) carlson has been particularly entertaining I have to say.

sydthebeat

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

Sure

Go to the page, scroll down past mail in ballots request and you will see Mail-in and early in-person ballots returned. These are the early votes that have been returned either by mail or in person. Click on party registration and you will see the figures I posted

You can change the state by going to the top and clicking the by state drop down box

Information is provided each day by the relevant states election division and the NBC website is handy because it's all there together and they calculate the percentages for you rather than having to go search each individual states early voting reports like say this one for Florida

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats?fbclid=IwAR1XKy-XVViJ3aRYIOefQOL7OW-nGYRag7LmdNTGz_lIQCAoS9Gamg-og9o

Going to each states report can be good too so you can see the returns for each county but it is time consuming

But those are not vote results.

They are a count of the ballot returned by party registration.

For example 30% of "others" returned doesnt mean "not a vote for either Biden or trump"..... It simply means that the vote was cast by a non political party member.

8-10

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

I never said it did, it is party registration for the early ballots

Yep. Pennsylvania stands out a bit but most seem in line with what you'd expect the electorate make up of each state

I see what's particularly interesting about the %'s unless you're saying they've changed significantly from 2016 or something?

The turnout number is what's more interesting. Over 80m already cast. The results might take weeks to finalise!

ohnonotgmail

gmisk wrote: »

The smoking guns are coming...2 weeks....oh I mean 2 days....lol... laughable.
The charade with tucker(not to be taken seriously as per his own network) carlson has been particularly entertaining I have to say.

they are locked in a safe with his health care plan and tax returns.

Tell me how

gmisk wrote: »

The smoking guns are coming...2 weeks....oh I mean 2 days....lol... laughable.
The charade with tucker(not to be taken seriously as per his own network) carlson has been particularly entertaining I have to say.

Absolutely.

That monologue clip if him explaining the 'documents ' going missing was epic.

Tell me how

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

they are locked in a safe with his health care plan and tax returns.

And school grades.

Billy Mays

Don Jnr yesterday: "Covid deaths have dropped to almost nothing"

Number of covid deaths in the US yesterday: 1,047

Why can't these people stop ̶l̶y̶i̶n̶g̶ being incorrect???

Zubeneschamali

After Trump loses, which prominent WH insider will be fastest with the book on "Trump was even stupider, nastier and crazier than anyone has realized"

ohnonotgmail

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

After Trump loses, which prominent WH insider will be fastest with the book on "Trump was even stupider, nastier and crazier than anyone has realized"

I'd say those books are already written and ready to go. Just a case of who gets to the printers first.

osarusan

As I said already, if there really is any damning evidence on Biden, the Republicans and the Republican-friendly media have done an awful job of exploiting it. This 'OMG just wait til you see it' isn't working for them.

If it even exists, maybe they are saving it to engulf a Biden presidency in scandal straight away?

vojiwox

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

After Trump loses, which prominent WH insider will be fastest with the book on "Trump was even stupider, nastier and crazier than anyone has realized"

Kayleigh!

is_that_so

osarusan wrote: »

As I said already, there really is any damning evidence on Biden, the Republicans and the Republican-friendly media have done an awful job of exploiting it. This 'OMG just wait til you see it' isn't working for them.

If it even exists, maybe they are saving it to engulf a Biden presidency in scandal straight away?

It's also far too late for it. Clinton had the email leaks and Comey affair rumbling along for about a month before.

osarusan

is_that_so wrote: »

It's also far too late for it. Clinton had the email leaks and Comey affair rumbling along for about a month before.

Yeah, far too late, especially with the amount of early voting.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

Some interesting early votes so far

Arizona, 99% mail in 1% in person
Dem 39% Gop 36% Other 25%

Florida, 59% mail in, 41% in person
Dem 41%, Gop 38%, Other 21%

Georgia, 33% mail in, 67% in person
43% Dem, Gop 50%, Other 7%

Iowa, 75% mail in, 25% in person
Dem 49%, Gop 32%, Other 19%

Michigan, 100% mail in voting
Dem 39%, Gop 41%, Other 20%

Minnesota, 100% mail in
Dem 46%, Gop 31%, Other 23%

Nevada, 56% mail in, 44% in person
Dem 46%, Gop 36%, Other 24%

North Carolina, 22% mail in, 78% in person
Dem 39%, Gop 31%, Other 30%

Ohio, 100% mail in
Dem 39%, Gop 48%, Other 13%

Pennsylvania, 100% mail in
Dem 68%, Gop 22%, Other 10%

Texas, 15% mail in, 85% in person
Dem 36%, Gop 54%, Other 10%

Wisconsin, 74% mail in, 26% in person
Dem 36% Gop 43%, Other 21%

It's early doors here obviously... but these numbers are not looking very good for Biden.

40+ % of Trump supporters plan to vote on Nov 3rd.

Only 16% of Biden supporters plan to vote on Nov 3rd.

This means, some 84% of Biden's votes will have been cast before Nov 3rd... he needs a significant early voter lead going into Nov 3rd... and with only 4 days remaining, those numbers are just not materializing for him. Quite the opposite in fact, he looks like potentially suffering heavy defeats in a number of key states.

We'll see what happens over the next few days, but for any of us watching alternative metrics to the dodgy mainstream pollsters... this is not surprising at all. Enthusiasm for Biden is pretty poor compared with Trump, and this is predictably starting to show itself in the voter turnout.

Red Tsunami alert!

vojiwox

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

.



Red Tsunami alert!

Yep if Trump wins we can expect many more American deaths from covid.

gmisk

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

It's early doors here obviously... but these numbers are not looking very good for Biden.

40+ % of Trump supporters plan to vote on Nov 3rd.

Only 16% of Biden supporters plan to vote on Nov 3rd.

This means, some 84% of Biden's votes will have been cast before Nov 3rd... he needs a significant early voter lead going into Nov 3rd... and with only 4 days remaining, those numbers are just not materializing for him. Quite the opposite in fact, he looks like potentially suffering heavy defeats in a number of key states.

We'll see what happens over the next few days, but for any of us watching alternative metrics to the dodgy mainstream pollsters... this is not surprising at all. Enthusiasm for Biden is pretty poor compared with Trump, and this is predictably starting to show itself in the voter turnout.

Red Tsunami alert!

I don't even think you believe any of the nonsense you are posting at this stage.
You still think Trump will win?! Based on what?!
"Alternative metrics"...and non mainstream pollsters (so the very random one or two that show Trump with some kind of chance).

Bobeagleburger

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

After Trump loses, which prominent WH insider will be fastest with the book on "Trump was even stupider, nastier and crazier than anyone has realized"

Melanie?

ohnonotgmail

6 wrote: »

Melanie?

is that the name of the double?

sydthebeat

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

It's early doors here obviously... but these numbers are not looking very good for Biden.

This numbers are great for Biden.
They show they're is a large ground swell of non partisan people going to vote, by both mail and by foot.
These are the 40% of people who didn't vote in 2016 cos they all thought HC had it in the bag.
They have experienced 4 years of trumps ignorance and self service and they are ready and mobilised to act to oust him.

Theres a mighty blue wave coming to wash the WH of trumps fakeness

ohnonotgmail

sydthebeat wrote: »

This numbers are great for Biden.
They show they're is a large ground swell of non partisan people going to vote, by both mail and by foot.
These are the 40% of people who didn't vote in 2016 cos they all thought HC had it in the bag.
They have experienced 4 years of trumps ignorance and self service and they are ready and mobilised to act to oust him.

Theres a mighty blue wave coming to wash the WH of trumps fakeness

The Pennsylvania numbers in particular are really bad for trump. Trump really needs pennsylvania

AlphaDelta1

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

It's early doors here obviously... but these numbers are not looking very good for Biden.

40+ % of Trump supporters plan to vote on Nov 3rd.

Only 16% of Biden supporters plan to vote on Nov 3rd.

This means, some 84% of Biden's votes will have been cast before Nov 3rd... he needs a significant early voter lead going into Nov 3rd... and with only 4 days remaining, those numbers are just not materializing for him. Quite the opposite in fact, he looks like potentially suffering heavy defeats in a number of key states.

We'll see what happens over the next few days, but for any of us watching alternative metrics to the dodgy mainstream pollsters... this is not surprising at all. Enthusiasm for Biden is pretty poor compared with Trump, and this is predictably starting to show itself in the voter turnout.

Red Tsunami alert!

Going to epic to see the reactions in the media and indeed here if Trump wins.

EasycomeEasygo

sydthebeat wrote: »

But those are not vote results.

They are a count of the ballot returned by party registration.

For example 30% of "others" returned doesnt mean "not a vote for either Biden or trump"..... It simply means that the vote was cast by a non political party member.

Yes I know, everyone knows the counting of the votes does not start until November 3rd. These statistics are called early votes in America, it's a lot easier to say than, have you the current statistics for returned votes by party affiliation for the state of Georgia? What are the early votes for Georgia? rolls off the tongue a lot easier.
A Democrat can vote for Trump and a Republican could vote for Biden and a non party affiliate can vote for Trump, Biden, Jo Jorgensen, Kanye West or one of the other people running. What these statistics do indicate, when matched with an opinion poll you have faith in, according to party support, who has what amount of votes so far from the Dem and Gop votes, the other is the wild card that can go anyway but is is also know in certain states historically whether the non party affiliates lean red or blue.

EasycomeEasygo

8-10 wrote: »

Yep. Pennsylvania stands out a bit but most seem in line with what you'd expect the electorate make up of each state

I see what's particularly interesting about the %'s unless you're saying they've changed significantly from 2016 or something?

The turnout number is what's more interesting. Over 80m already cast. The results might take weeks to finalise!

Pennsylvania is an interesting one alright but it has to be noted that they are 100% mail in voting so far, the in person early voting has not started there yet. The numbers are in line with ballots requested. It's important to note whether the in person voting has started in each state or not.

It's hard to compare the statistics here to 2016 because there are much, much more people voting early this time around.

It is interesting to track the numbers day by day. Take Florida for example, on Sunday the Dem vote was ahead of Gop by 364,000, on Tuesday Dem were ahead by 355,000, yesterday the Dem vote is ahead by 183,000. These numbers may have no relation to the final result of the election but they are interesting to look at.

It will take a long time to count the votes in some states and some governors have already stated they are not going to rush it, they want to make sure it is correct. Texas is nearly past their total vote in 2016 already. If it is not sorted by December 14th I wouldn't be shocked if Mike Pompeo became acting president on 20th January

vojiwox

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Going to epic to see the reactions in the media and indeed here if Trump wins.

Going to epic to see the reactions in the media weird YouTube channels and indeed here if Biden wins.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Going to epic to see the reactions in the media and indeed here if Trump wins.

Not 'if'... when he wins. It's just a question of how much he wins by at this point.

Nate silver was pushing ABC/WP polls with as much as 17% lead for Biden in wisconsin a few days ago:pac:... look at the early voter numbers 43% GOP / 36% Dem in a state Biden is apparently supposed to be cruising to victory! lol

Texas landslide coming too... GOP also leading 41%/38% in 100% mail ins for Michigan... Florida and Arizona all looking great too.

Pennsylvania is the only one not looking great right now. But he can drop that, if he has the others.

You're right, this is going to be pretty funny watching people's reaction when reality starts to finally sink in...

vojiwox

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

If it is not sorted by December 14th I wouldn't be shocked if Mike Pompeo became acting president on 20th January

What could cause it to not be sorted by December 14th?

partyguinness

To be honest if Trump wins comedians and late night tallk show hosts will breathe a sigh of relief.

4 more years of comedy from the Clown in Chief.

ohnonotgmail

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

Pennsylvania is an interesting one alright but it has to be noted that they are 100% mail in voting so far, the in person early voting has not started there yet. The numbers are in line with ballots requested. It's important to note whether the in person voting has started in each state or not.

It's hard to compare the statistics here to 2016 because there are much, much more people voting early this time around.

It is interesting to track the numbers day by day. Take Florida for example, on Sunday the Dem vote was ahead of Gop by 364,000, on Tuesday Dem were ahead by 355,000, yesterday the Dem vote is ahead by 183,000. These numbers may have no relation to the final result of the election but they are interesting to look at.

It will take a long time to count the votes in some states and some governors have already stated they are not going to rush it, they want to make sure it is correct. Texas is nearly past their total vote in 2016 already. If it is not sorted by December 14th I wouldn't be shocked if Mike Pompeo became acting president on 20th January

If it has not been decided by 20th January then Congress decides who is president according to section 3 of the 20th amendment. It would not go to Pompeo.