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Who thinks Trump will win?
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Silentcorner wrote: »Ya, I'm going to go with my own personal experience of relying on polls published in mainstream media, which contributed to my shock that Trump got elected in 2016...a shock that most of us vividly remember.
It is abundantly clear, even from here in Ireland, that the entire media industry in the US is compromised and cannot be relied upon to inform any of us in a balanced manner....
It is a poor reflection on feminists that they have given themselves a reputation for incompetence and political failure.
Most polls are carried out be academic institutions or market research companies.0 -
Most polls are carried out be academic institutions or market research companies.
Well, I know in this country, one polling company leans in favour of one political party and another leans the other way...I don't recall which one is which because even in this country I have long abandoned any interest in published polls.
Then factor in the bias of the publishing/media company you can see why there is little to depend on...put that in the American context and it is lethal, if you are not seeing polls indicating a fairly significant shift in the voting intentions of the black community then remember that on election night.
You have to use your own faculty as best you can knowing that you are misinformed...it's one reason why I don't know what to believe these days...the industry (media) which I have depended on all my adult life have proven to be completely unreliable which has only gotten worse over the last 5 years in particular!0 -
Deleted User wrote: »He encourages militias and has declared the innocence of the teen who killed two people in Kenosha, the teen faces homicide charges.
In self defense.He also gassed a church to get a photo op.
Barr is on record to state the crowd was moved before he knew the POTUS was walking across to the church.In addition to that, he risked a war with Iran with that assassination earlier in the year and in the process heavily damaged the US relationship with Iraq....
Risked a war? Killing Souleimani likely saved thousands of lives and made our lives in Western Society that bit safer given the instability that pos brought to the region and just what that then enabled enemies of the west to do.He also still believes the central park five did it and stands by his call for them to be executed.
He NEVER called for the Central Park 5 to be executed. That's a lie started by the left and it seems it will not die. Unsurprising given Netflix made a drama centered around that lie.
That was a crazy violent time in New York and murder and rape was splashed across the pages almost daily and very few people were being brought to justice at the time. The rape at the center of the Central Park 5 case was horrific but so too were the murders that were occurring. Trump felt he had to speak out on behalf of the decent people of NYC.
So, he took a full page ad to address the situation, citing all that was happening, including that rape and eventually went on to call for the death penalty for those who took a life and said "When they kill they should be executed for their crimes". The Central Park 5 killed nobody though and so it is not possible for him to have been referring to them when he spoke of criminals being executed, despite the left's insistence that he was. All Trump was doing was calling for tougher penalties as he felt that would deter the criminal element from further engaging in evil and barbaric crimes.0 -
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DangerScouse wrote: »The elephant in the room is many people just won't admit to voting for Trump, polls are virtually worthless.
And yet when a poll surfaces that makes #IMPOTUS look good the zealots post it up with glee :pac:0 -
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Silentcorner wrote: »Well, I know in this country, one polling company leans in favour of one political party and another leans the other way...I don't recall which one is which because even in this country I have long abandoned any interest in published polls.
Then factor in the bias of the publishing/media company you can see why there is little to depend on...put that in the American context and it is lethal, if you are not seeing polls indicating a fairly significant shift in the voting intentions of the black community then remember that on election night.
You have to use your own faculty as best you can knowing that you are misinformed...it's one reason why I don't know what to believe these days...the industry (media) which I have depended on all my adult life have proven to be completely unreliable which has only gotten worse over the last 5 years in particular!
I wouldn't quite share your opinion of US pollsters. The media certainly did an awful job covering the state of the 2016 race. I think they were so blinded by their hate to Trump, they refused to acknowledge the worrying signs. Pollsters were only out nationally by 1.1% which wasn't bad. More out at state level for sure, where it matters, but still mostly within the margin or error. Remember, Trump only won Michigan by 0.23%, Pennsylvania by 0.73%, Wisconsin by 0.77% and Florida by 1.20%. It was a damn close run race. They media ignored Hillary's lead halving in October 2016 by pollsters. 538 for example gave Trump a 35% chance of winning on election night which was a decent chance.0 -
DangerScouse wrote: »The elephant in the room is many people just won't admit to voting for Trump, polls are virtually worthless.
They are certainly worthless, but the combined averages (off reputable pollsters) are not usually off by that much like most people think.0 -
Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »And yet when a poll surfaces that makes #IMPOTUS look good the zealots post it up with glee :pac:
"....whatever, here's a REAL poll."0 -
I wouldn't quite share your opinion of US pollsters. The media certainly did an awful job covering the state of the 2016 race. I think they were so blinded by their hate to Trump, they refused to acknowledge the worrying signs. Pollsters were only out nationally by 1.1% which wasn't bad. More out at state level for sure, where it matters, but still mostly within the margin or error. Remember, Trump only won Michigan by 0.23%, Pennsylvania by 0.73%, Wisconsin by 0.77% and Florida by 1.20%. It was a damn close run race. They media ignored Hillary's lead halving in October 2016 by pollsters. 538 for example gave Trump a 35% chance of winning on election night which was a decent chance.
Fair point.
I do remember hearing that the polls published for the swing states had Hillary ahead by a massive ratio, over 80 polls had her ahead, less than 5 had Trump ahead...can't be sure but there or thereabouts.
I was obviously consuming media that cherry picked what polls I saw, I remember following that election with interest on account of Trumps involvement, back then I would have been reading online, Irish times, The Guardian, in print, the SBP and Newsweek.
I don't consume any of those anymore, probably explains why I don't have a pathological hatred of Trump.0 -
Silentcorner wrote: »Fair point.
I do remember hearing that the polls published for the swing states had Hillary ahead by a massive ratio, over 80 polls had her ahead, less than 5 had Trump ahead...can't be sure but there or thereabouts.
I was obviously consuming media that cherry picked what polls I saw, I remember following that election with interest on account of Trumps involvement, back then I would have been reading online, Irish times, The Guardian, in print, the SBP and Newsweek.
I don't consume any of those anymore, probably explains why I don't have a pathological hatred of Trump.
Yeah, I think your referencing Wisconsin, where the polls had Hillary +7 on election day. That's outside the margin or error, which should really mean it shouldn't have been in play for Trump. But of course he won the state. So it's worth taking polls with a pinch of salt. For me, I mostly follow national polls and Trumps approval rating to give a indication of the national mood. Even though state polls should be more important, there is a lack of quality polling.0 -
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Silentcorner wrote: »If the polls are any way tight at the moment, this race is over, momentum has shifted, Biden doesn't have energy or enthusiasm out there....the Trump support is notoriously hard to poll, factor in the shift that the Defund the police movement will throw Trumps way, the lawlessness and mayhem that BLM have brought to a lot of cities, causing the surge in gun ownership...their economy is looking in much better shape than it was three months ago...you could be looking at a Republican President winning the most diverse mandate in history.
The Democrats are looking at a decade out of power...like Labour in the UK, they have succumbed to the extreme elements of their party which has mushroomed over the last few years, I don't see how the party of feminists are going to turn it around it's not in their nature to admit they got something wrong!
The thing is that Trump campaign has been pushing law and order message for weeks now and it hasn't shifted the polls that much if at all. The indicators are that people care (by a large margin) most about the economy and getting the pandemic under control, neither of which Trump has a plan for. Yes, some jobs were recovered but unemployment is still way up and more temporary job losses are being made permanent. There is no plan for controlling the pandemic other than a moonshot vaccine by election day. Now that Trump is on record of knowing how serious the virus was while downplaying it at the same time, I don't see how anyone can think he is fit to lead.0 -
circular flexing wrote: »The thing is that Trump campaign has been pushing law and order message for weeks now and it hasn't shifted the polls that much if at all. The indicators are that people care (by a large margin) most about the economy and getting the pandemic under control, neither of which Trump has a plan for. Yes, some jobs were recovered but unemployment is still way up and more temporary job losses are being made permanent. There is no plan for controlling the pandemic other than a moonshot vaccine by election day. Now that Trump is on record of knowing how serious the virus was while downplaying it at the same time, I don't see how anyone can think he is fit to lead.
He relies on the votes of those who can't or don't want to make logical assessments like yours, and there's still al lot of them.0 -
Both Parties need a good cleaning out... but that is not going to happen.
Both Parties are killing America.
Democrats are a joke at this stage (that is not to say the Republicans are not) but fielding Biden in this race is like putting a life vest on the Titanic (the ship i mean) It is never going to work.
Absolutely, however the fans on here of the democrats who are as evil,ad as much of a war monger party are so blinkered they are letting their bias cloud everything
How bad was Hilary if Trump could beat her.
If he beats biden the excuses will flow for that too, people wont see that Trump is where he is because people put him there.0 -
DangerScouse wrote: »The elephant in the room is many people just won't admit to voting for Trump, polls are virtually worthless.
I remember watching a clip in 2016 and it was a voxpop where they asked about 5-6 people to stop and who they were voting for / why , the first person who went was a typical ideological college student, light on facts heavy on feelings, called trump every 'ist' under the sun, the next two were a husband and wife, both said 'ehh not entirely sure yet but probably Hillary' , asked the other 2 people, they confidently said Hillary. then the interviewer comes back and narrates that while walking back to the van they saw the couple get in to their car with a trump bumper sticker on it, stopped them and asked why didn't they say anything, they had said they were afraid of how animated the college girl would get if they said trump and that they didn't want confrontation.
this it the reality of it and for any republican candidate , you have husbands who won't say it infront of their wives, parents who won't say it infront of their kids, grandparents who won't say it out loud , voting republican has a stigma so the only place you'll affirm it is in the polling booth.0 -
Trump just got Nominated For The Nobel Peace Prize Over Israel Peace Deal, good for him, he has been moving to encourage peace and wants to pull the troops out of the middle east. I wonder how the American left will try and twist it, He certainly deserves it more than Obama when he got it just because he was black which was the when I started to question the narritives being pushed.0
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Eric Cartman wrote: »I remember watching a clip in 2016 and it was a voxpop where they asked about 5-6 people to stop and who they were voting for / why , the first person who went was a typical ideological college student, light on facts heavy on feelings, called trump every 'ist' under the sun, the next two were a husband and wife, both said 'ehh not entirely sure yet but probably Hillary' , asked the other 2 people, they confidently said Hillary. then the interviewer comes back and narrates that while walking back to the van they saw the couple get in to their car with a trump bumper sticker on it, stopped them and asked why didn't they say anything, they had said they were afraid of how animated the college girl would get if they said trump and that they didn't want confrontation.
this it the reality of it and for any republican candidate , you have husbands who won't say it infront of their wives, parents who won't say it infront of their kids, grandparents who won't say it out loud , voting republican has a stigma so the only place you'll affirm it is in the polling booth.
Assuming for a moment that it's difficult to respond a poll without your family finding out what you answered and what the questions were, I really don't think that family members won't have figured it out already by the stuff that they come out with.
They'll have already heard him go on about the fear of leftists taking over the country, the panic about the caravan at the border, the russia hoax, leftists, the deep state, leftists again, the unhealthy obsession with some NY congresswoman, fake news, leftists yet again, nothingburgers, liberals, the n-word, oh god not leftists yet again, satanic pedophile rings, sleepy joe and all the other shíte that he picked up from the comment sections of the Trump-felating media.0 -
Justin Credible Darts wrote: »Absolutely, however the fans on here of the democrats who are as evil,ad as much of a war monger party are so blinkered they are letting their bias cloud everything
Who's the last Democrat president to launch an invasion of a country not backed by UN or where allies struck first?
If Democrats are same war mongers why does every Republican president say they need massive military spending because the previous Democrat president ignored the military. Trump immediately launched into massive military spending.. Here is what he saidAnd we’re ordering tremendous amounts of new equipment. We’re at $700 billion for the military. And, you know, they were cutting back for years. They just kept cutting, cutting, cutting the military. And you got lean, to put it nicely. It was depleted, was the word. And now it’s changing.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-members-coast-guard-palm-beach-florida/How bad was Hilary if Trump could beat her.
If he beats biden the excuses will flow for that too, people wont see that Trump is where he is because people put him there.
Actually Trump lost by 3 million votes... so people didn't put Trump there the electoral college did.
Clinton would have won easy had it not been for Comeys incompetence. It was wall to wall 'her emails' last 10 days of election, nobody talked about anything else and media focused on nothing else but that.
Got it wrong there. Biden winning would be massive turn up for the books. Very rare a sitting president is beaten. Secondly the amount of free media Trump get far exceeds what Biden gets or will get making it 10 times harder for Biden to win. Media in the USA is Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump 24/7.
Trump should win easy given the advantages he holds not other way around.0 -
Just seeing the nobel prize news now, amazing stuff. Well deserved.
Shocking reading the last few pages how people just take any daily mail type story as fact so long as its anti trump.
An elected MP nominated him for the peace prize. He very well may win it.
I believe he will be the first world leader to bring stability to the middle east and maybe even peace one day and Im sure he hopes most of all to do it with no invasions, no new wars.
Hes going to make a deal because thats what he does. They are starting to call him uncle Trump in parts of the middle east, he is the first president to treat them with respect.0 -
Man with broke phone wrote: »Just seeing the nobel prize news now, amazing stuff. Well deserved.
Shocking reading the last few pages how people just take any daily mail type story as fact so long as its anti trump.
An elected MP nominated him for the peace prize. He very well may win it.
I believe he will be the first world leader to bring stability to the middle east and maybe even peace one day and Im sure he hopes most of all to do it with no invasions, no new wars.
Hes going to make a deal because thats what he does. They are starting to call him uncle Trump in parts of the middle east, he is the first president to treat them with respect.
Do you know anything about how the nobel prize works? Like anything at all? Even the nomination and selection process are really simple to understand. It's only about an a4 page's worth of information.0 -
BMan with broke phone wrote: »Just seeing the nobel prize news now, amazing stuff. Well deserved.
Shocking reading the last few pages how people just take any daily mail type story as fact so long as its anti trump.
An elected MP nominated him for the peace prize. He very well may win it.
I believe he will be the first world leader to bring stability to the middle east and maybe even peace one day and Im sure he hopes most of all to do it with no invasions, no new wars.
Hes going to make a deal because thats what he does. They are starting to call him uncle Trump in parts of the middle east, he is the first president to treat them with respect.
Lol your joking right. The man does not deserve it. He does not deserve any sort of trophy well maybe if there was a trophy for been a buffoon and and idiot you could give him that one as it's all he deserves. He has made the middle east worse. He has done nothing for the Palastines and made there lifes harder as if they were not hard enough already. He has forced through what he thinks is right by ignoring one side over the other and that is not right. He has broken a good treaty that was signed between Europe and America with Iran and made there lives worse too. The man is a walking disaster. His little trip to meet the North Korean leader accomplished much like all other Trumps meetings a big fat 0. He only done it for the T V reality T.V is all he wants. He cares nothing about anything else or anyone else.Live long and Prosper
Peace and long life.
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Man with broke phone wrote: »Just seeing the nobel prize news now, amazing stuff. Well deserved.
Shocking reading the last few pages how people just take any daily mail type story as fact so long as its anti trump.
An elected MP nominated him for the peace prize. He very well may win it.
I believe he will be the first world leader to bring stability to the middle east and maybe even peace one day and Im sure he hopes most of all to do it with no invasions, no new wars.
Hes going to make a deal because thats what he does. They are starting to call him uncle Trump in parts of the middle east, he is the first president to treat them with respect.
Thankfully the democrat's didn't get in the last time, I'd say the whole middle east would have lit up.
And Herself had her eye on Russia too, her team were very hawkish about Russia imagine if that escalated.
We probably be dealing with fallout instead of Corona0 -
One thing what is very telling from McEnany in yesterday's press conference, she was visibly uncomfortable with the line of questions about his knowledge of covid. Suspect this one is gonna hit hard.
https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1303800873169104904?s=190 -
The US was in a uniquely difficult position with COVID. Too many people with comorbidities... lifestyle health problems like obesity, type 2 diabetes etc.
This is Trumps prior knowledge of COVID, which would have been exactly the same for any president. Not much anyone can do with so many people in a poor state of health.0 -
I really don't get how some people are just lining up to make excuse after excuse for this guy.
Obviously I think he is a bit of a buffoon that shouldn't be in power, but putting that aside, I could respect certain aspects of him if he just took some responsibility. But he wont, ever. Why can't his fans see that? That by being in continual denial and defence mode he is letting everyone down.0 -
That by being in continual denial and defence mode he is letting everyone down.
I dont like him either, but you have to question if he is letting people down when half his country will be more likely voting for him, so they don't feel he left him down.
He is not an anomaly, he is very much in keeping with the American mindset, and that in itself is the bigger problem.
Its all well and good saying the orange lunatic is this and that, but you have to ask why and how he got there.
Why his challenge is a bumbling old idiot.
for a supposed nation of brilliance they are the only two options ?
The last election was as bad, they had Trump and hilary.
This goes way beyond just Trump0 -
I really dont get why there so many people trying to signal their virtue by hating Trump.
' I hate Trump therefore Imust be a moral , sophisticated and intelligent person ' ..
If the past 4 years have shown anything, its how pathetic many liberals actually are. No discernible values except for woolly social justice crap copied and pasted from the Guardian.
The Chinese have a pejorative word to describe them - ' Baizuo ' ..Baizuo refers to people who "only care about topics such as immigration, minorities, LGBT and the environment," who "have no sense of real problems in the real world," who only advocate for peace and equality to "satisfy their own feelings of moral superiority" and who are so "obsessed with political correctness" that they "tolerate backward Islamic values for the sake of multiculturalism," reads Zhang's article published in opendemocracy.com on May 11.0 -
He is the source behind the force.0
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Justin Credible Darts wrote: »I dont like him either, but you have to question if he is letting people down when half his country will be more likely voting for him, so they don't feel he left him down.
He is not an anomaly, he is very much in keeping with the American mindset, and that in itself is the bigger problem.
Its all well and good saying the orange lunatic is this and that, but you have to ask why and how he got there.
Why his challenge is a bumbling old idiot.
for a supposed nation of brilliance they are the only two options ?
The last election was as bad, they had Trump and hilary.
This goes way beyond just TrumpI really dont get why there so many people trying to signal their virtue by hating Trump.
' I hate Trump therefore Imust be a moral , sophisticated and intelligent person ' ..
If the past 4 years have shown anything, its how pathetic many liberals actually are. No discernible values except for woolly social justice crap copied and pasted from the Guardian.
The Chinese have a pejorative word to describe them - ' Baizuo ' ..
These two posts are the perfect examples to highlight the situation we are in (An example of the problem and an example that sums it up).
I dislike Trump - absolutely - but not to prove a point or to show superiority or how morally correct I think I am. It's more disagreement with the whole concept of him. The entire system is absolutely screwed and no one is winning from it except the powers that be.
The people are getting fu(ked over, everything is becoming more and more polarised. Us vs Them, little scope for grey area or debate or how to actually solve problems. Cant talk about certain subjects without it becoming left vs right or bordering on hateful sniping at each other.
Both sides (and its unfortunate that there are only "two sides", but that's where we are at) often feel like they are getting shafted. But instead of looking at the bigger picture we look to blame and fight with each other. Trump should really not be in power (of course others will disagree) - but I am sure there are many, many more capable republican candidates, capable of leadership and not simply playing the game.0 -
I really dont get why there so many people trying to signal their virtue by hating Trump.
' I hate Trump therefore Imust be a moral , sophisticated and intelligent person ' ..
If the past 4 years have shown anything, its how pathetic many liberals actually are. No discernible values except for woolly social justice crap copied and pasted from the Guardian.
The Chinese have a pejorative word to describe them - ' Baizuo ' ..
And really that's just inciteful.
Ill give an example - I was once a frequent visitor to a certain part of the UK. They are going through some pretty fundamental changes in politics. I see more hatred there than say ~10 or 15 years back. Is that because I think Tony Blair was some sort of messiah? No of course not, but do I see a sharp decline in the standard of living for many people (regardless of political divide). I see problems with society at different levels. I see areas that I visited as a child in ruin.
That's experience and using my own judgement to try and figure out what is actually going on. Not because of some opinion pieces from Twitter, the Guardian or whatever and working out what I can do to not contribute to this sh!te that we are all accepting these days.
None of this will change by playing the left vs right game. Rubbishing an opinion because you suspect the holder is "one of them woke liberals" or "Right wing Nazis".0 -
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I really don't get how some people are just lining up to make excuse after excuse for this guy.
Obviously I think he is a bit of a buffoon that shouldn't be in power, but putting that aside, I could respect certain aspects of him if he just took some responsibility. But he wont, ever. Why can't his fans see that? That by being in continual denial and defence mode he is letting everyone down.
The fact that Trump takes action shows that he takes responsibility.
Just because Trump once said he did not take responsibility at all for a lag in testing does not mean that he never takes any for anything, which is what the left constantly claim and then wheel out that out of context quote as proof of it.
By the way, Politifact found that he wasn't responsible for what he said he didn't take responsibility for:
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/23/dan-crenshaw/did-fda-regulations-slow-testing-coronavirus/0
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