Have NPHET lost the attention of people?

Tenzor07

karlitob wrote: »

NPHET are experts in their respective fields who advise government based on the terms of reference set out by government.
Who else is gonna advise the government? If it’s not NPHET it’ll be another group because it’ll certainly be the same people as they are there ex officio, as a function of the office that they hold.
I don’t want Michael Martin to make a decision in the absence of expert advice.

1000's of experts in Ireland, UK and Europe, no one says they have to be Irish, so what we need are experts who are at the very cutting edge of their profession, not a group of HSE experts like Holohan who've been in the job too long and probably haven't published a medical paper of any note in decades..

McHardcore

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Lockdowns, straight from the Spanish Flu of 1917/8 rulebook, keep people isolated from the indiscriminate killer...

Move forward 100 years and Governments are very very slowly starting to see that they don't work.

There was no central authority imposing lockdown during the Spanish Flu.

If you mean social distancing, that helped save lives during the Spanish Flu.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/

crossman47

Tenzor07 wrote: »

1000's of experts in Ireland, UK and Europe, no one says they have to be Irish, so what we need are experts who are at the very cutting edge of their profession, not a group of HSE experts like Holohan who've been in the job too long and probably haven't published a medical paper of any note in decades..

Holohan has never been in HSE

Ginger n Lemon

karlitob wrote: »

NPHET are experts in their respective fields who advise government based on the terms of reference set out by government.

Who else is gonna advise the government? If it’s not NPHET it’ll be another group because it’ll certainly be the same people as they are there ex officio, as a function of the office that they hold.

I don’t want Michael Martin to make a decision in the absence of expert advice.

Well M Martin made a decision today to only let 18,000 people for every 1 person increase in ICU with positive PCR test since 15 September go on PUP.

If he was following the advice, that figure couldve been 30,000, to 40,000.

Thank god we did not listen to experts advice for once.

kippy

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Lockdowns, straight from the Spanish Flu of 1917/8 rulebook, keep people isolated from the indiscriminate killer...

Move forward 100 years and Governments are very very slowly starting to see that they don't work.

It's obvious restrictions work in reducing the number of infections else why ask people to socially distance, wash hands, wear a mast, basically keep apart.
The issue is the cost of these restrictions and the adherence of the general populace to them.
A balance has to be found.
Again the amount of people I heard heading into town to the shops over the past few weeks because 'lockdown' was coming was scary. The irony.

Tenzor07

McHardcore wrote: »

There was no central authority imposing lockdown during the Spanish Flu.
If you mean social distancing, that helped save lives during the Spanish Flu.

Yeap, the Spanish flu killed indiscriminately so people had to be isolated from each other, it killed young and old....
So what Governments need to do now is protect those who are most likely to die with Covid and let everyone else lead as normal a life as possible with extra precautions... anything else just isn't sustainable..

karlitob

Millionaire only not wrote: »

U have to cull out the elderly , throwing loads of drugs and pills into people that don’t know there own name is not humane either .
Such is life wether it’s flu , covit , cancer or any other issue the world will throw at us , people will die . People need to get over it and move on .
There loved ones in nursing homes and not able to visit them is little comfort to either party .

NO you don’t have the ‘cull’ the older person population. That’s a disgusting comment.

I think the point you’re so horribly getting at is about quality of life. The most amount of money spent on our health is done in the last year of our lives. Quite obviously, patients receive care that may not improve their quality of life.

I agree that an 85 year old might say - let me see my grandchild and I’ll happily die in 6 months, or not see my grandchild and live for 12 months.

Older people - as with anyone else - deserve respect and should have choice in the decisions that affect their lives.

It’s hard to provide.

karlitob

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Well M Martin made a decision today to only let 18,000 people for every 1 person increase in ICU with positive PCR test since 15 September go on PUP.

If he was following the advice, that figure couldve been 30,000, to 40,000.

Thank god we did not listen to experts advice for once.

I’m not sure what your point is - but that wasn’t my point.

karlitob

crossman47 wrote: »

Holohan has never been in HSE

Now, now. Don’t let facts get in the way of a good HSE bashing!

McHardcore

Andrewf20 wrote: »

Yes - early on this year due in part to the "dry tinder" effect but covid deaths remain very low now across pretty much all of Europe from what I can see. And this is with cases rising since July in alot of countries. The death now profiles seem to be generally in line of whats expected for this time of year.

As in the death rate is low between the two pandemic waves? Well yes. No one is arguing that. The point is that coronavirus has significantly increased the number of people that have died this year that would have not died otherwise.

Tenzor07

McHardcore wrote: »

As in the death rate is low between the two pandemic waves? Well yes. No one is arguing that. The point is that coronavirus has significantly increased the number of people that have died this year that would have not died otherwise.

You have to look at the excess death rate to know the full facts...

The sad truth is that while 2 or 3 people may lose their lives with Covid each week, 80 people may pass away due to Cancer...

karlitob

Tenzor07 wrote: »

1000's of experts in Ireland, UK and Europe, no one says they have to be Irish, so what we need are experts who are at the very cutting edge of their profession, not a group of HSE experts like Holohan who've been in the job too long and probably haven't published a medical paper of any note in decades..

Tony H doesn’t work for the HSE.

I didn’t say that had to be Irish.

So you know who the members of NPHET are? They’re not on the group on the basis of their nationality, they are on the group for their expertise (you clearly know nothing about the international reputation of these people) and the roles that they hold eg the Head of HIQA. How could the head of hiqa not be on this group or any other similarly group?

McHardcore

Diarmuid wrote: »

That's true. You could also add to that, the question as to whether it's a sustainable solution for the next year to 18 months. I think the answer is obvious.

Is it sustainable to allow so many additional people to die at the cost of a dip in our economy?

I wouldn't say either answer is obvious. It something that has to be debated.

McHardcore

Tenzor07 wrote: »

You have to look at the excess death rate to know the full facts...

The sad truth is that while 2 or 3 people may lose their lives with Covid each week, 80 people may pass away due to Cancer...

Yes, the CSO has said that we have already had a additional 1k people die this year that would not have died otherwise from coronavirus

What is your point?

karlitob

McHardcore wrote: »

The point is that coronavirus has significantly increased the number of people that have died this year that would have not died otherwise.

I don’t know if that’s true - or rather I think that we don’t know that yet.

Can you forward on any links?

McHardcore

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Yeap, the Spanish flu killed indiscriminately so people had to be isolated from each other, it killed young and old....
So what Governments need to do now is protect those who are most likely to die with Covid and let everyone else lead as normal a life as possible with extra precautions... anything else just isn't sustainable..

That plan didn't work out so well for Sweden, who have a death rate much worse than us.

McHardcore

karlitob wrote: »

I don’t know if that’s true - or rather I think that we don’t know that yet.

Can you forward on any links?

Yes, the CSO released the figures. The Journal had a recent article on them:

https://www.thejournal.ie/number-of-deaths-per-month-in-ireland-5202283-Sep2020/

karlitob

karlitob wrote: »

I don’t know if that’s true - or rather I think that we don’t know that yet.

Can you forward on any links?

Ireland has no excess deaths - at the moment at least

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

Tenzor07

McHardcore wrote: »

That plan didn't work out so well for Sweden, who have a death rate much worse than us.

Nothing to be proud of, or to use to try score points.

Sweden made similar mistakes to many countries in failing to protect their elderly..
However now their case rate is half what Ireland's is.

karlitob

McHardcore wrote: »

Yes, the CSO released the figures. The Journal had a recent article on them:

https://www.thejournal.ie/number-of-deaths-per-month-in-ireland-5202283-Sep2020/

I think you didn’t read it well enough.

“At this stage, this is a speculative estimate based on experimental data.“

It is possible that there will be lower mortality levels later in the year given the concentration of these deaths in nursing homes and the older population.”

The analysis “can only give an indication of excess mortality at a point in time” and data for the full year of 2020 would be required to provide a more definitive picture of excess mortality.

McHardcore

karlitob wrote: »

Ireland has no excess deaths - at the moment at least

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

If you mean Ireland has no excess in deaths from coronavirus right now as we are between the two waves of the pandemic, then yes, you are correct. I've already mentioned this. However, there is over 1k in additional deaths this year compared to previous years. This is attributed to the first wave of the pandemic.

McHardcore

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Nothing to be proud of, or to use to try score points.

Sweden made similar mistakes to many countries in failing to protect their elderly..
However now their case rate is half what Ireland's is.

Right now? Yes, you are correct. Overall? Sweden have a worse death rate from coronavirus than us.

NIMAN

Tenzor07 wrote: »

You have to look at the excess death rate to know the full facts...

The sad truth is that while 2 or 3 people may lose their lives with Covid each week, 80 people may pass away due to Cancer...

I wonder are they able to break down the figures to show us the actual number of people who died BECAUSE of cv19 and not WITH cv19.

There's a big difference.

Andrewf20

McHardcore wrote: »

As in the death rate is low between the two pandemic waves? Well yes. No one is arguing that. The point is that coronavirus has significantly increased the number of people that have died this year that would have not died otherwise.

I would say that there is a 2nd wave in cases but not deaths. It may happen but I haven't seen it happen in any country yet. What seems to be the situation now is a casedemic rather than a pandemic.

Latest estimates for covid deaths in Europe are around 190k, 140k excess deaths for 2017/18 but apparently the year 2000 saw more excess deaths in Europe than corona but with was over a larger period (a few months).

Sweden pulled around 100 years of data for excess deaths and found a load of years comparable or worse for excess deaths than corona.

GarIT

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Nothing to be proud of, or to use to try score points.

Sweden made similar mistakes to many countries in failing to protect their elderly..
However now their case rate is half what Ireland's is.

I'm curious to know what Sweden are doing, and is working for them at the moment. They must have one or more of, more restrictions, better enforcement, more social responsibility, or they aren't testing everyone.

McHardcore

NIMAN wrote: »

I wonder are they able to break down the figures to show us the actual number of people who died BECAUSE of cv19 and not WITH cv19.

There's a big difference.

Yes, they do it by comparing the number of deaths against number of deaths from previous years. There was a large increase in Ireland from the first wave of the pandemic.

GarIT

Tenzor07 wrote: »

1000's of experts in Ireland, UK and Europe, no one says they have to be Irish, so what we need are experts who are at the very cutting edge of their profession, not a group of HSE experts like Holohan who've been in the job too long and probably haven't published a medical paper of any note in decades..

There are several leading experts among the 20 or so members some with no relation to the HSE if that seems to be a requirement for you.

karlitob

McHardcore wrote: »

If you mean Ireland has no excess in deaths from coronavirus right now as we are between the two waves of the pandemic, then yes, you are correct. I've already mentioned this. However, there is over 1k in additional deaths this year compared to previous years. This is attributed to the first wave of the pandemic.

No - that’s not what I mean. Read the link I posted.

There are not 1000 additional deaths this year - read the link you posted.

GarIT

McHardcore wrote: »

Is it sustainable to allow so many additional people to die at the cost of a dip in our economy?

I wouldn't say either answer is obvious. It something that has to be debated.

And the main countries that haven't locked down have faired worse than us economically. There's no escaping the dip in the economy.

McHardcore

Andrewf20 wrote: »

I would say that there is a 2nd wave in cases but not deaths. It may happen but I haven't seen it happen in any country yet. What seems to be the situation now is a casedemic rather than a pandemic.

Latest estimates for covid deaths in Europe are around 190k, 140k excess deaths for 2017/18 but apparently the year 2000 saw more excess deaths in Europe than corona but with was over a larger period (a few months).

Sweden pulled around 100 years of data for excess deaths and found a load of years comparable or worse for excess deaths than corona.

Why do you reason that the number of deaths will not follow the number of cases for the second wave like it did with the first wave?

On your Sweden point, I would imagine that they did have years that they had more excess deaths than they have now. Take the Spanish Flu or WWII. I'm not sure what point you are making here.