Have NPHET lost the attention of people?

McHardcore

GarIT wrote: »

And the main countries that haven't locked down have faired worse than us economically. There's no escaping the dip in the economy.

I agree.

karlitob

McHardcore wrote: »

Yes, they do it by comparing the number of deaths against number of deaths from previous years. There was a large increase in Ireland from the first wave of the pandemic.

No - they don’t.

Official causes of death are certified by a doctor or in some cases a coroner. There is a responsibility on next of kin to report deaths within 3 months, therefore data is always delayed.

It can be incredibly difficult to differentiate between died with or of. The clear cut cases are clear cut. Most aren’t. This is the same of a lot of disease. Imagine an older person who has heart failure, COPD, liver disease, ulcers, and as reduced function from a stroke and who also gets recurrent chest infections. A pretty common scenario. So while they might get pneumonia and die, it’s really the straw that broke the camels back. And all their others conditions would deteriorate near the end so that it’s hard to tell which one was the straw.

There is an running total kept by the HPSC but it’s in no way validated to an extent that you’d stand over the numbers.

There might have been a large increase but that does not mean excess deaths. Read the link I posted.

Millionaire only not

karlitob wrote: »

NO you don’t have the ‘cull’ the older person population. That’s a disgusting comment.

I think the point you’re so horribly getting at is about quality of life. The most amount of money spent on our health is done in the last year of our lives. Quite obviously, patients receive care that may not improve their quality of life.

I agree that an 85 year old might say - let me see my grandchild and I’ll happily die in 6 months, or not see my grandchild and live for 12 months.

Older people - as with anyone else - deserve respect and should have choice in the decisions that affect their lives.

It’s hard to provide.

It’s all fine , my father died nearly a year ago in a nursing home costing 60k a year . He was there for 5 years , his first was fine lost his walk after that .
In fairness it was cruelty and I knowing the man he would not want to live like the way he finished up . It’s a money making exercise for drug companies pumping these people beyond what there life was meant to be .
Not be able to wipe your own arse , put food in your mouth is not living. I experienced it on first hand and watched full nursing homes ,dementia walking aids , wheel chairs beyond cruelty u would call some of it . I’m not heartless but I’m glad my father hadn’t to experience the last 7/8 months .

karlitob

McHardcore wrote: »

Why do you reason that the number of deaths will not follow the number of cases for the second wave like it did with the first wave? .

Well the current data clearly shows that picture.

It could clearly relate to the age profile of those getting the disease, the amount of testing and the sensitivity and specificity is the testing procedure. Obviously, all countries - including Sweden - got it wrong around nursing homes. But the profile of those contracting the disease is now younger and less likely to die than older persons.

karlitob

Millionaire only not wrote: »

It’s all fine , my father died nearly a year ago in a nursing home costing 60k a year . He was there for 5 years , his first was fine lost his walk after that .
In fairness it was cruelty and I knowing the man he would not want to live like the way he finished up . It’s a money making exercise for drug companies pumping these people beyond what there life was meant to be .
Not be able to wipe your own arse , put food in your mouth is not living. I experienced it on first hand and watched full nursing homes ,dementia walking aids , wheel chairs beyond cruelty u would call some of it . I’m not heartless but I’m glad my father hadn’t to experience the last 7/8 months .

I’m sorry that you and your father has that experience.

Your experience does not give you the right to say that older people should be culled.

Dementia, waking aids and wheelchairs certainly limit quality of life but there are 100,000s people with these things who have an excellent quality of life living in the community and in nursing homes.

We are saying the same thing about quality of life. A lot of the answers can be found in the Assisted Decision Making Act yet to be implemented.

Your father has the right to refuse any treatment that he wishes. The ADA would ensure that issues of capacity wouldn’t cloud that decision when cognitive impairment sets in.

Millionaire only not

karlitob wrote: »

I’m sorry that you and your father has that experience.

Your experience does not give you the right to say that older people should be culled.

Dementia, waking aids and wheelchairs certainly limit quality of life but there are 100,000s people with these things who have an excellent quality of life living in the community and in nursing homes.

We are saying the same thing about quality of life. A lot of the answers can be found in the Assisted Decision Making Act yet to be implemented.

Your father has the right to refuse any treatment that he wishes. The ADA would ensure that issues of capacity wouldn’t cloud that decision when cognitive impairment sets in.

The quality of life I say with the majority in the nursing home left a lot to be desired. Yes ur right about there choices ! But ask urself do they choose to have 20 pills a day crushed in there food to keep them alive .
God didn’t put us on earth for the greater good of pharmaceutical companies .

McHardcore

karlitob wrote: »

I think you didn’t read it well enough.

“At this stage, this is a speculative estimate based on experimental data.“

It is possible that there will be lower mortality levels later in the year given the concentration of these deaths in nursing homes and the older population.”

The analysis “can only give an indication of excess mortality at a point in time” and data for the full year of 2020 would be required to provide a more definitive picture of excess mortality.

You left out the section previous to your quote:

“Based on the analysis of death notices, the estimate for excess mortality to 30 June 2020 is 1,072. This assumes that, in the absence of COVID-19 deaths, mortality would have followed a trajectory similar to previous years. At this stage, this is a speculative estimate based on experimental data.

“It is important to put this figure of 1,072 [excess] deaths within the context of around 30,000 deaths per year. It is possible that there will be lower mortality levels later in the year given the concentration of these deaths in nursing homes and the older population.”

They said that there were excess deaths this year (until 30 June 2020) is 1,072 which is attributed to Covid. These figures are speculative. I agree, this excess figure of 1k deaths caused by coronavirus over previous years could reduce nearer to the end of the year. However, as the rate of cases is increasing, its difficult to see this as likely.

ShineOn7

Anywhere online I can rewatch the Leo interview without using the RTE Player?

karlitob

McHardcore wrote: »

You left out the section previous to your quote:

“Based on the analysis of death notices, the estimate for excess mortality to 30 June 2020 is 1,072. This assumes that, in the absence of COVID-19 deaths, mortality would have followed a trajectory similar to previous years. At this stage, this is a speculative estimate based on experimental data.

“It is important to put this figure of 1,072 [excess] deaths within the context of around 30,000 deaths per year. It is possible that there will be lower mortality levels later in the year given the concentration of these deaths in nursing homes and the older population.”

They said that there were excess deaths this year (until 30 June 2020) is 1,072 which is attributed to Covid. These figures are speculative. I agree, this excess figure of 1k deaths caused by coronavirus over previous years could reduce nearer to the end of the year. However, as the rate of cases is increasing, its difficult to see this as likely.

No it is difficult to see that this is likely.

As has been said already - it’s a speculative ESTIMATE based on EXPERIMENTAL data. The EUMOM is the best we have at the moment - using Irish data. And it finds no excess deaths using data from the last 5 years.

McHardcore

karlitob wrote: »

Well the current data clearly shows that picture.

It could clearly relate to the age profile of those getting the disease, the amount of testing and the sensitivity and specificity is the testing procedure. Obviously, all countries - including Sweden - got it wrong around nursing homes. But the profile of those contracting the disease is now younger and less likely to die than older persons.

A logical way to look at this is to rewind the clock in Ireland back to January, this time in a world where there is no Covid. Now count the typical number of deaths that occur from January to December. These deaths will be from your typical diseases like flu, heart disease, cancer, road traffic accidents, suicide, etc.

You will get a certain number of deaths at the end of the year.

Now rewind the clock again and introduce a deadly disease like Covid on top of the other diseases.

Will the number of deaths at the end of the year increase or decrease?

The answer is that they will increase. It has been shown to increase this year so far.

karlitob

Millionaire only not wrote: »

The quality of life I say with the majority in the nursing home left a lot to be desired. Yes ur right about there choices ! But ask urself do they choose to have 20 pills a day crushed in there food to keep them alive .
God didn’t put us on earth for the greater good of pharmaceutical companies .

Again - people can refuse treatment if they have capacity. But not taking drugs and speeding death does not equal quality of life.

Drugs and poor quality of life are not opposites. Drugs are needed to improve quality of life - though in understand your point about polypharmacy.

Most drugs that older people are on really are the cheap stuff. It’s the experimental cancer ones or orkambi or tysabri is where the money goes to.

McHardcore

karlitob wrote: »

No it is difficult to see that this is likely.

As has been said already - it’s a speculative ESTIMATE based on EXPERIMENTAL data. The EUMOM is the best we have at the moment - using Irish data. And it finds no excess deaths using data from the last 5 years.

You mean "it finds no excess deaths using data from the last 5 years" for this moment right now. We are just after the first wave of the pandemic. The EUMOM data that you linked to shows a substantial increase in the number of deaths during the first wave of the pandemic this year.

karlitob

McHardcore wrote: »

A logical way to look at this is to rewind the clock in Ireland back to January, this time in a world where there is no Covid. Now count the typical number of deaths that occur from January to December. These deaths will be from your typical diseases like flu, heart disease, cancer, road traffic accidents, suicide, etc.

You will get a certain number of deaths at the end of the year.

Now rewind the clock again and introduce a deadly disease like Covid on top of the other diseases.

Will the number of deaths at the end of the year increase or decrease?

The answer is that they will increase. It has been shown to increase this year so far.

No - a logical way to look at it will be to wait for the experts to have validated and quality checked data to make an informed decision. Data that is not an estimate or experimental. Sure you don’t even know what the margin of error is for that data.

I didn’t say that deaths haven’t increased this year - the point was excess deaths.

Beside your man was using rip.ie as a data source. You want me to accept that the source of truth of deaths in ireland - particular Covid - can be found in whether Mary paid to put up a funeral notice on website.

Look at the cso data - not analysis of other data by a cso analyst - q1 2020 deaths are the same as q1 2019 deaths. I expect it to be higher somewhat for Q2 2020 v q2 2019 as reporting is 3 months in arrears but that doesn’t mean excess deaths.

Regardless me argument is that you can’t tell yet and from what we know - the eumom says we don’t have excess deaths (a complex analysis of all European countries data) and that rip.ie is just a notice board.

Strumms

Millionaire only not wrote: »

The quality of life I say with the majority in the nursing home left a lot to be desired. Yes ur right about there choices ! But ask urself do they choose to have 20 pills a day crushed in there food to keep them alive .
God didn’t put us on earth for the greater good of pharmaceutical companies .

In ONE home. Go to Sybil Hill where my grandfather was.....

Art classes, drama club, snooker table, physiotherapy, cookery classes, bowling, card night. Treated like royalty by the staff.

My grandfather went to try it for a week, after which.. “yep, sell the house I’m coming here”

Yyhhuuu

I think Nephet should not have released the information to the media just before 9pm on Sunday to say advice was to go to level 5. I'm delighted the government decided for level 3 nationwide. Nphet ADVICE was contrary to that adopted in other western states. As Clinton said it's the Economy Stupid. Leo Vradkar is a great media performer on Claire Byrne. Might the CMO now resign? Just asking.

It's amazing the city where I live the lack of social distancing. I keep having to walk out on the road, at risk of being knocked down by car to avoid covid and keep a distance. Also when I politely say " please respect social distancing" to people who dont adhere the abuse including Fck off is the response from some both from young and older people. Others think just because they have a mask social distancing not required. Are people unbelievably stupid or what? Don't get me started on my pet hate, the next to useless plastic visors, which are useful to prevent eye transmission with a face mask. People also seem to be under the illusion that if they hand sanatize they're immune but transmission from surfaces forma is not the main method of transmission and more than likely a person would have had to cough or sneeze ( unlikely symptom of covid) on the surface just before you touch it and then touch your eye or mouth. Shops etcshould also keep their premises well ventilated to help reduce the frightening aerosol transmission but many dont. One of the principal risk factors is obesity and cardiovascular problems.Rant over....

P.s. re Trump I note the evasiveness of the medics at Walter Reed Medical Center ( u.s. spelling) to state when exactly he tested positive. Highly significant as he met lots of people at the time.

Open the Pubs

Varadkar humiliated Holahan. All the cringey slobberes over Holahan will be raging.

Yyhhuuu

Open the Pubs wrote: »

Varadkar humiliated Holahan. All the cringey slobberes over Holahan will be raging.

Varadkar threw Holahan under the bus. He said the CMO hadn't the answer to the various scenarios which could play out had they adopted level 5. As much as the CMO hadn't thought through their advice.The government were right to exert their authority over nephet ADVICE. I think the government will monitor hospitalization very carefully. I presume nephet calculated based on their mathematical formulae that unless level 5 was adopted the hospitals would be overrun. I hope this doesnt transpire as the Virus appears to cause less hospitalisation and deaths than occurred in 1st wave.

SchrodingersCat

karlitob wrote: »

Look at the cso data - not analysis of other data by a cso analyst - q1 2020 deaths are the same as q1 2019 deaths.

This isn't evidence that there has been no excess deaths due to coronavirus. Sure the virus wasn't even in the country for most of Q1 and the peak in case numbers wasn't until Q2. Even then there is a lag from case numbers to deaths as it takes time for a person to succumb from the virus.

Rubberchikken

Unless nphet could come up with extremely good reasons why the country should go to level 5 then they have to be questioned and rightly so.

Shutting the country down again isn't the way forward. The economy can't sustain it.

People were going to mostly listen to and abide by the advise and regulations initially. But it was obvious that that would change as time went on and the media okay a part in that.

The constant comments about pubs reopening. References to holidays. Gaa. Etc.
Humans are weak. It's a fact.

SchrodingersCat

karlitob wrote: »

No - a logical way to look at it will be to wait for the experts to have validated and quality checked data to make an informed decision. Data that is not an estimate or experimental. Sure you don’t even know what the margin of error is for that data.

I didn’t say that deaths haven’t increased this year - the point was excess deaths.

Beside your man was using rip.ie as a data source. You want me to accept that the source of truth of deaths in ireland - particular Covid - can be found in whether Mary paid to put up a funeral notice on website.

Look at the cso data - not analysis of other data by a cso analyst - q1 2020 deaths are the same as q1 2019 deaths. I expect it to be higher somewhat for Q2 2020 v q2 2019 as reporting is 3 months in arrears but that doesn’t mean excess deaths.

Regardless me argument is that you can’t tell yet and from what we know - the eumom says we don’t have excess deaths (a complex analysis of all European countries data) and that rip.ie is just a notice board.

I think you mean "analytical" and not "logical". My logical argument still stands. I agree, the CSO death figures for Q2 will tell us alot about the death rate of the virus.
"Yer man using RIP.ie as a data source" is the CSO department that you are referring to. You asked if you "should accept a source of truth of deaths in ireland - particular Covid - can be found in whether Mary paid to put up a funeral notice on website"? My answer is yes. See what the CSO themselves had to say about it:

"Eight weeks ago the CSO published an analysis of the accuracy of the RIP.ie data and found a correlation of more than 99% between RIP.ie death notices and the official death registry data which is published much later. It concluded that RIP.ie can be used to accurately measure trends in mortality."

https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1161895/

You said " the eumom says we don’t have excess deaths". This is wrong: It is saying we don't have excess deaths *right now*. We did during the first wave of the pandemic. Right now we are between the first wave and the second so the number of deaths is lower.

utmbuilder

Do we know how many of the 4000 or so cases will end up in hospital on top of the 150 there and after that how many will move to icu on top of the 25 already there.

What about legacy hospital beds to icu figures.

Surely this is all calulatable by scientists at least 4 weeks in advance

reg114

reg114 wrote: »

The fact we have such a low number of hospital beds is purely down to successive governments not prioritising effective healthcare spending. This has nothing to do with NPHET.

The Irish state spends as much per capita as the UK spends on their NHS. With the NHS you get all your medication covered, free GP visits and to complain about waiting more than 6 months for an elective procedure. What do we get here for the same amount of money? Yet everyone involved in healthcare here reckons they could make way more money elsewhere. Funny that.

Happydays2020

SchrodingersCat wrote: »

This isn't evidence that there has been no excess deaths due to coronavirus. Sure the virus wasn't even in the country for most of Q1 and the peak in case numbers wasn't until Q2. Even then there is a lag from case numbers to deaths as it takes time for a person to succumb from the virus.

I think it is well accepted now that the virus was with us in February and probably January.

In excess deaths - there will be some from the first wave - probably in the 100’s compared to a bad flu year. But we will not know until all the data is in for 2020. Impossible to say now in respect to the second wave.

Gael23

Holohans position as CMO must now be questioned

GooglePlus

Gael23 wrote: »

Holohans position as CMO must now be questioned

You won't be saying that in 4 weeks time.

patnor1011

Yyhhuuu wrote: »

I think Nephet should not have released the information to the media just before 9pm on Sunday to say advice was to go to level 5. I'm delighted the government decided for level 3 nationwide. Nphet ADVICE was contrary to that adopted in other western states. As Clinton said it's the Economy Stupid. Leo Vradkar is a great media performer on Claire Byrne. Might the CMO now resign? Just asking.

It's amazing the city where I live the lack of social distancing. I keep having to walk out on the road, at risk of being knocked down by car to avoid covid and keep a distance. Also when I politely say " please respect social distancing" to people who dont adhere the abuse including Fck off is the response from some both from young and older people. Others think just because they have a mask social distancing not required. Are people unbelievably stupid or what? Don't get me started on my pet hate, the next to useless plastic visors, which are useful to prevent eye transmission with a face mask. People also seem to be under the illusion that if they hand sanatize they're immune but transmission from surfaces forma is not the main method of transmission and more than likely a person would have had to cough or sneeze ( unlikely symptom of covid) on the surface just before you touch it and then touch your eye or mouth. Shops etcshould also keep their premises well ventilated to help reduce the frightening aerosol transmission but many dont. One of the principal risk factors is obesity and cardiovascular problems.Rant over....

P.s. re Trump I note the evasiveness of the medics at Walter Reed Medical Center ( u.s. spelling) to state when exactly he tested positive. Highly significant as he met lots of people at the time.

That was indeed a rant. With a healthy dose of entitlement. If you feel vulnerable why on earth you insist on going out expecting everyone else will cater for you?

suicide_circus

Open the Pubs wrote: »

Varadkar humiliated Holahan. All the cringey slobberes over Holahan will be raging.

Yeah i just watched the 2 minute clip on rte.ie of Leo talking to Claire B there, he fairly well demolishes the nphet proposal.

Dempo1

Pretty dispressing and predictable end to the day with Leo's appalling and misguided attack on Tony Houlihan albeit refreshing in one sense to see him actually vent his true and long held opinion on Houlihan given he's has spent months undermining not just NPHET but the very government he helped form.

It's immediately clear that Leo seems to think Houlihan alone made the level 5 decision which is blatantly false, this was a NPHET decision signed off by numerous experts. I also find it interesting Paul Reid also threw Houlihan under the bus by his denials that both He and the HSE were not informed, this is absolute B@@LOX, there's a number of highly paid direct HSE employees on NPHET and I suspect the recommendations re level 5 were actually an effort to protect the HSE given what a shambles it is. I'm not getting all the fuss about leaked letter on Sunday, not so long ago politician's and indeed journalists demanding more transparency from NPHET meetings, well they got that in spades and yet its characterised as a leak, more nonsensical excuses from government who must have seen the numbers.

This is NOT going to end well, I thought Stephen Donnelly handled the aftermath press conference well and diplomatically but Leo has gone too far in his personalised critism of Tony Houlihan. I sense very tense health department press conferences ahead and just hope Houlihan doesn't resign.

karlitob

SchrodingersCat wrote: »

This isn't evidence that there has been no excess deaths due to coronavirus. Sure the virus wasn't even in the country for most of Q1 and the peak in case numbers wasn't until Q2. Even then there is a lag from case numbers to deaths as it takes time for a person to succumb from the virus.

Ah come on. Read my posts. That’s exactly what I’ve been saying. We don’t know yet - current evidence wouldn’t suggest. That poster was referencing data - so I referenced cso data. And then said we don’t know for many reasons.

suicide_circus

Ah come on now, the leaked letter on something so important was shambolic - totally unprofessional - and undermined their position. It's not NPHET's role to circumvent the government's decision making process.