Have NPHET lost the attention of people?

patnor1011

kippy wrote: »

What country are you talking about then?

And unfortunately, you don't seem to understand percentages and statistics.
The reality is there is a higher death rate (much higher) in older age groups. The reason the death rate has been lower the past few months here is that this age group are not getting it as much as earlier in the year (surely you can see this?)

In countries where the age profile of the country is lower and younger people get the disease, there won't be as many deaths - more to do with the population profile than health systems.
I realise lots of older people recover from this but that doesn't mean that a larger percentage of older people die.

Saying "age plays no role in this" is unfortunately not true.

Think again. Older people here are more likely to have some underlying condition. Or few. That is what make them vulnerable not their age.

Impoverished countries are not full of young healthy people living on an organic diet. Majority of people are suffering multiple ailments stemming from a simple lack of food. Their young people are in the same state if not worse than our old people.

It is not about understanding percentage or statistics. It is about realizing fact that you can not implement percentages or statistics unilaterally.
What's good for the goose is good for the gander type of logic does not apply here.

SeaFields

I think it's fairly ironic the blame regarding the nphet leak on Sunday evening by politicians and yet the country knew level 5 wasn't happening by early yesterday owing to "senior sources in cabinet"....

Vieira82

bucketybuck wrote: »

If I was getting advice from a friend about a serious problem, damn sure I would be extremely pissed to find out they were telling the whole pub what they were going to say to me later. NPHET most certainly needed to be put back in their box, a classic example of a group who got caught up in their self importance and forgot their actual place in things.

And anybody who thinks they didn't leak that letter is being ridiculously naive.

Right... so making assumptions about a group, not having any proof at all of who leaked the letter but let's just grab a gun and shoot NPHET on sight. It was them for sure despite them leaking the letter being completely illogical

But I'm the naive one.

I'll keep watching you guys argue in the pub and get into the fist fight. I'll be the guy in the corner laughing my ass off looking at the whole situation and enjoying my pint of Beamish...

patnor1011

kippy wrote: »

Why are you using Sweden as an example?
Sweden have many restrictions still in place and in place through out this.
There are no countries in the world that haven't put in place restrictions.

We are not talking about restrictions. While we can debate which countries implemented more severe form or for how long...
This is about calling for lockdown and idiotic argument that lockdown prevented 98,000 deaths in Ireland.
It did not. See Sweden.

Vieira82

SeaFields wrote: »

I think it's fairly ironic the blame regarding the nphet leak on Sunday evening by politicians and yet the country knew level 5 wasn't happening by early yesterday owing to "senior sources in cabinet"....

Sense? What's that?! Might as well grab the whole NPHET team and crucify them already

JMNolan

SeaFields wrote: »

I think it's fairly ironic the blame regarding the nphet leak on Sunday evening by politicians and yet the country knew level 5 wasn't happening by early yesterday owing to "senior sources in cabinet"....

No they didn't, that's a pure lie, earliest it was known was mid afternoon yesterday. NPHET leaked this, they should be disbanded, I'm not surprised about the reports stating the government were livid.

carq

Thierry12 wrote: »

If over 60s did that we would be on level 1, too many out and about, we are in lockdown for them

Leo/MM should have made that clear last night

If your over 60 your old, sorry.

Keep restaurants etc open for kids and 20s-40s

ID at that door

long term - it may be hard to get away from the above.
looking at the stats it would strike a balance between economy and risk of death from the virus.
under 60 I think the death rate is .3% or less compared to total cases last time I looked.

This strategy of lockdown / release will not work long term, and get less effective each time the govt implements it.
Pubs and restaurants and travel should remain open in level 3 for under 60s.

EDIT - as far as i can tell using July figures - death rate for healthy under 65's was .03%; underlying conditions under 65 - .45%.
I expect these have improved in recent months.

On further reflection and having discussed case numbers, I think it was the right decision to move to level 3.

Now for the bad news, if cases keep increasing exponentially which they are currently, we will be in level 5 before the end of the three weeks.

We are approaching our D-day in the hospitals. Lay people need to do their bit.

NIMAN

Is that a bitch slap to Dr Tony?

He'll not be happy.

DeanAustin

SeaFields wrote: »

I think it's fairly ironic the blame regarding the nphet leak on Sunday evening by politicians and yet the country knew level 5 wasn't happening by early yesterday owing to "senior sources in cabinet"....

There's a massive difference. NPHET's leak blindsided the government and caused panic. The government leaks happened after a meeting with NPHET and were trying to calm some of the fear.

Tony Holohan and NPHET should be ashamed of themselves.

paw patrol

I'll give Leo his due , he is a master politician.
He knows how the wind blows and changes accordingly. shamelessly.



he doesn't deliver on the practical actual results side but a a PR man continually on the "right" side...few are his equal.

bucketybuck

Vieira82 wrote: »

But I'm the naive one.

Yes, you are. Very obviously so.

But go on, explain what was illogical about leaking the letter? Bearing in mind that doing such a thing would be pretty much page one of a political manipulation playbook.

bucketybuck

paw patrol wrote: »

I'll give Leo his due , he is a master politician.
He knows how the wind blows and changes accordingly. shamelessly.



he doesn't deliver on the practical actual results side but a a PR man continually on the "right" side...few are his equal.

I'm no apologist for Leo but I don't quite get why so many people say this, certainly regarding covid, I think he has been pretty consistent about it the whole way through.

The initial lockdown was what it was, I don't think many could argue with the need considering the lack of info at the time. But remember that it was Leo who brought out the first roadmap for reopening, and then it was Leo who brought the dates for reopening forward. The delays only started when Martin took over and Leo gave plenty of indication that he didn't agree with that. Now he is again making clear that he doesn't agree with more lockdowns or stricter levels.

What am I missing here, because what I see is a guy who after the initial lockdown has since been pretty consistent about thinking society should open up and that there are wider considerations other than just covid.

Royale with Cheese

What's more likely, NPHET leak their recommendations to scare the public (half of whom hang off their every word) and put political pressure onto the government to enact their plan, or...

Somebody in government leaks the letter so that Leo Varadkar can go on TV and pretend that NPHET leaked the letter all so he can just give Tony Holohan a good public kicking.

How fúcking stupid are some people?

jackal

NPHET must be aware they don’t operate in a vacuum. They must have known that recommending most of the country jump from level 2 to the highest level possible would have huge repercussions. It’s not up to them to balance those things, we all know that they have a single issue to look at but they should/must have known this was going to light a fuse.

Surely they could have had the cop on to not just write a single option down and deliver it to the government to implement. These people are operating at high executive levels and not one of them said ‘maybe we should have a chat with the government about this’.

No just write the letter there and see you next week. Crazy stuff, they absolutely deserved to get a pasting.

Valhallapt

From the very beginning NPHET have been obtuse, very slow to give out hard data about their decisions, often not giving out any supporting evidence.

Somebody of the east of the country has corona....

Masks are ineffective, advise not to wear them, instead wash your groceries......

They lost me in the Kildare lockdown. There is no reality in science or fantasy where you close small local businesses with no history of outbreaks but you leave open meat factories with a long track record of causing outbreaks.

Was collecting the kids yesterday and a group of them were crying coming out of school, they were exasperated at the idea of another lockdown. It was needless scaremongering from NPHET for political gain. I no longer believe that NPHET are acting in the national interest. They want to reduce cases for their own ego /pride, they need to put the health of the whole country first not just selectively pick one metric. The goal is to minimise death and health impacts, outbreaks in you healthy populations have minimal impact on health services or society at large.

We keep getting the one or two young people who have suffered a bad case as an example to validate their extreme measures. More young people will commit suicide and self harm because of lockdown measures than will be impacted by corona virus.

It may well be necessary to go to level 5 before Christmas, but there should be a transparent disclosure of data and have it opened to alternative views, if level 5 is to work, the people must believe it’ll work and it is necessary, otherwise it’ll be ignored.

I’ve no doubt that NPHET is comprised of competent and capable people, but the group think has meant they lost sight of their purpose.

meeeeh

The leek was too early to think that government leaked it.

Anyway Leo Vradkar is enterprise minister and should represent interest of businesses. In first wave we had a minority government and half of ministers didn't even have mandate. In those circumstances it was very hard to go against expert advice. On top of that everyone saw pictures of overwhelmed health services in Italy. Now there is a government with clear majority and a mandate to govern (despite what SF might think). NEPHET will have to realise that they are tyere to advise and the Sunday stunt was ridiculous. It was a bit the sheriff is back in town and will sort everything out. Except Holohan is not the sheriff Martin (government) is.

ednwireland

https://twitter.com/ClaireByrneLive/status/1313222982823825408

a pretty good explanation of why they rejected level 5, in leo's mind they hadnt thought though through implications and consequences, when that had been done it was decided unreasonable.

Vieira82

just burn the whole NPHET down. wondering if Tom weights less than a duck though...

Nobotty

We will be at level 5 before Xmas if people don't tighten up on their washing and distancing given the rate everything is rising

DeanAustin

paw patrol wrote: »

I'll give Leo his due , he is a master politician.
He knows how the wind blows and changes accordingly. shamelessly.



he doesn't deliver on the practical actual results side but a a PR man continually on the "right" side...few are his equal.

Easiest thing for him and Martin to do was implement level 5 and say "well, we're just heeding the public health advice, what are we supposed to do?"

The decision they took was brave. His interview last night, giving the rationale behind it, was also brave because there are a lot of people criticising him this morning.

I'm not a FG voter but Leo is by far the best political leader in this country. It's ridiculous that he's not still Taoiseach.

Does anyone even remember what Martin said in his speech? It was "Level 3 lads" and a load of uninspired waffle. Fair enough, he has a tough gig and I don't envy him. But when Leo speaks, he actually says something.

paw patrol

bucketybuck wrote: »

I'm no apologist for Leo but I don't quite get why so many people say this, certainly regarding covid, I think he has been pretty consistent about it the whole way through.

I meant in the way NPHET were godlike and now when the public are getting fed up he knew exactly when to put them back in their place.


I'm not sure I agree with totally your assessment , he had the roadmap for sure but that was scrapped in favour of the levels. Leo went along with this.

Sure MM is taoiseach (but only by agreement) they are still 2 very equal coalition partners.


I'll say this , I reminisce of the days of the roadmap . Never thought I'd say that.

paw patrol

DeanAustin wrote: »

Easiest thing for him and Martin to do was implement level 5 and say "well, we're just heeding the public health advice, what are we supposed to do?"

The decision they took was brave. His interview last night, giving the rationale behind it, was also brave because there are a lot of people criticising him this morning.

I'm not a FG voter but Leo is by far the best political leader in this country. It's ridiculous that he's not still Taoiseach.

Does anyone even remember what Martin said in his speech? It was "Level 3 lads" and a load of uninspired waffle. Fair enough, he has a tough gig and I don't envy him. But when Leo speaks, he actually says something.

MM and Leo are there to be leaders not to blindly accept advice from expert groups who are on a single issue mission. Leadership is supposed to do what they did last night not abdicate responsibility on a continual basis.

Leo didn't really shine as taoiseach when he was but he is good at this PR stuff and speaking to people. He has a good way about him on that. And in times like this he does offer much more than MM.

I work in Financial Service and I see that all the time - Senior Management hire in consultants like KPMG or Deloitte because they are afraid to make a call in case it's wrong so they out-source the call.
If it goes well , they boast they were great to hire KPMG. If it goes badly they say - well we hired KPMG they are the experts...nothing to do with me. I've seen this for 20years in corporate culture , it's cowardly behaviour.

I know what you are saying re: following NPHET. Not sure I agree
The TDs know the public are tired of NPHET. If the public were gung-ho behind level 5 - it would be level 5. The public are restless now to a large degree.
Personally I don't think there is anything that brave about it , the figures of deaths and hospitalisation aren't painting a picture of the end of days that we are lead to believe is happening.

Sure it's a big decision going against NPHET but was it NPHET or Dr Tony ?
Remember Ronan Glynn said level 3 was grand only 3 days before Dr Tony returned?

Jizique

carq wrote: »

long term - it may be hard to get away from the above.
looking at the stats it would strike a balance between economy and risk of death from the virus.

EDIT - as far as i can tell using July figures - death rate for healthy under 65's was .03%; underlying conditions under 65 - .45%.
I expect these have improved in recent months.

This!
This needs to be hammered home on the news every day instead of Paul “deadly virus” Cunningham and George “panic misery” Lee; they need to give us far more data, they need to provide age details of the few recent deaths and for those in hospitals.

DeanAustin

paw patrol wrote: »

He isn't Taoiseach cos he doesn't have the numbers and has to do a deal.

He didn't really shine as taoiseach when he was but he is good at this PR stuff and speaking to people. He has a good way about him on that.



I know what you are saying re: following NPHET. Not sure I agree

The TDs know the public are tired of NPHET. If the public were gung-ho behind level 5 - it would be level 5. The public are restless now to a large degree.



Personally I don't think there is anything that brave about it , the figures of deaths and hospitalisation aren't painting a picture of the end of days that we are lead to believe is happening.


Sure it's a big decision going against NPHET but was it NPHET or Dr Tony ?
Remember Ronan Glynn said level 3 was grand only 3 days before Dr Tony returned?

Fair enough. I disagree with you on Leo just being a PR man but I doubt either of us will change the other's opinion on it.

I think they were brave because if Level 3 restrictions go wrong and cases surge and deaths increase, Leo and Martin could have their careers ruined. They'll be slaughtered in the media and by the public.

I think he was also brave to criticise NPHET last night because politicians rarely do that. But the way he explained it, regardless of what happens from here on out, I think they made the right decision with the information they had to hand and he was right to explain that to the public even if it meant that NPHET's nose is put out of joint.

Dravokivich

DeanAustin wrote: »

Easiest thing for him and Martin to do was implement level 5 and say "well, we're just heeding the public health advice, what are we supposed to do?"

The decision they took was brave. His interview last night, giving the rationale behind it, was also brave because there are a lot of people criticising him this morning.

I'm not a FG voter but Leo is by far the best political leader in this country. It's ridiculous that he's not still Taoiseach.

Does anyone even remember what Martin said in his speech? It was "Level 3 lads" and a load of uninspired waffle. Fair enough, he has a tough gig and I don't envy him. But when Leo speaks, he actually says something.

Uninspired waffle? He made a point of saying people need to think about what they are doing and act responsibly when considering the outcomes of their actions. In the grand scheme of things, there's little the government can do to halt this. It spreads by people mixing with each other.

Vieira82

Valhallapt wrote: »

From the very beginning NPHET have been obtuse, very slow to give out hard data about their decisions, often not giving out any supporting evidence.

Somebody of the east of the country has corona....

Masks are ineffective, advise not to wear them, instead wash your groceries......

They lost me in the Kildare lockdown. There is no reality in science or fantasy where you close small local businesses with no history of outbreaks but you leave open meat factories with a long track record of causing outbreaks.

Was collecting the kids yesterday and a group of them were crying coming out of school, they were exasperated at the idea of another lockdown. It was needless scaremongering from NPHET for political gain. I no longer believe that NPHET are acting in the national interest. They want to reduce cases for their own ego /pride, they need to put the health of the whole country first not just selectively pick one metric. The goal is to minimise death and health impacts, outbreaks in you healthy populations have minimal impact on health services or society at large.

We keep getting the one or two young people who have suffered a bad case as an example to validate their extreme measures. More young people will commit suicide and self harm because of lockdown measures than will be impacted by corona virus.

It may well be necessary to go to level 5 before Christmas, but there should be a transparent disclosure of data and have it opened to alternative views, if level 5 is to work, the people must believe it’ll work and it is necessary, otherwise it’ll be ignored.

I’ve no doubt that NPHET is comprised of competent and capable people, but the group think has meant they lost sight of their purpose.

But who's competence it is to give teenagers proper support to avoid them commiting suicide? Who's competence is to have a clear message about what is going on and has been half arsed bs since March?

Look at other countries daily updates, look at outher countries information. I wish you'd speak Portuguese and see the government updates over there.

Daily briefings explaining in detail how many outbreaks, where they are located, how many people recovered daily and the usual number of infected and number of hospitalizations...

Now on that note, Leo lied last night saying Portugal had a higher incidence of the virus, it is lower than Ireland as we are having around 700 cases daily now but our population is more than 10 million. This means if you have 500 cases in Ireland, a country with half that population it is way higher.

On top of that Portugal has been heavily preparing for the second wave and as soon as kids went back to school the whole country went into Emergency State.

Also, Costa, Portuguese prime minister, has blatantly said since the beginning, clear and precise information is KEY to surpass this crysis and even yesterday he said it clearly that another national lockdown was not possible as the country could not sustain itself economically.

Now look at Irish politics and it feels like they always think they're so important that they need to explain things to the people like everyone is braindead..

And now this amount of discordance is normal because since the beginning there has been very little clear information and an idea of letting the people know only the essential..

Leo's theater in his many press conferences, going around quoting movies was ridiculous and lacking in the clarity and precise info the public needed to take this serious.

And now he's using that same lack of info against NPHET itself and of course with so much info hidden it's easier to create a whole argument against NPHET or to that matter anyone or anything else.

Don't forget, this is not over yet, we'll see at the end of all of this who will be right or wrong. And most importantly what will happen to the political establishment in Ireland and in Portugal.

Side Note: Portugal has a left wing coalition government, which includes the almost 100 year old Communist Party. The complete opposite of Ireland so it will be interesting to see how politically, socially and economically all of this plays out.

dundalkfc10

DeanAustin wrote: »

Easiest thing for him and Martin to do was implement level 5 and say "well, we're just heeding the public health advice, what are we supposed to do?"

The decision they took was brave. His interview last night, giving the rationale behind it, was also brave because there are a lot of people criticising him this morning.

I'm not a FG voter but Leo is by far the best political leader in this country. It's ridiculous that he's not still Taoiseach.

Does anyone even remember what Martin said in his speech? It was "Level 3 lads" and a load of uninspired waffle. Fair enough, he has a tough gig and I don't envy him. But when Leo speaks, he actually says something.

According to a poll on Newstalk, 67% of people think Leo was bang out of order for his public attack on the CMO and NHETP

SeaFields

SeaFields wrote: »

I think it's fairly ironic the blame regarding the nphet leak on Sunday evening by politicians and yet the country knew level 5 wasn't happening by early yesterday owing to "senior sources in cabinet"....

believe me I was on the edge of my seat with nerves yesterday, all day long, along with most of the country who are running businesses, needing hospital treatment, see relatives, have upcoming meetings. I had the radio on all day waiting for updates!! I finally heard it at around 3.30 I think. There were NO leaks!

dundalkfc10

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

According to a poll on Newstalk, 67% of people think Leo was bang out of order for his public attack on the CMO and NHETP

None of them are the people who get up early to go to work. They are people on big salaries, own property , have big pensions or else get paid regardless of lockdowns, i.e. civil servants! Alternatively those who don't work anyway i.e. are on the dole, it makes no difference to many of them.

My sister and a lot of friends are big fans of lockdown as they are all retired, married to wealthy men, on pensions, own property and are very very comfortable. They are also not living alone. They love lockdown! They would be appalled by Leo last night as they hang on every word of Tony Holohan, call him "Tony" at their coffee mornings, cried when they heard about his wife (which is very sad), but they are not Tony's friend so why cry?

A Newstalk survey is not an accurate assessment of anything.