Have NPHET lost the attention of people?

karlitob

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

To be fair, the population increased with more births.

To be fair - that’s the point of a rate. The answer is that we won’t know for a while yet.

Vieira82

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

Em, I dont believe I have denied anything have I?

Your limits were laughable and designed to be covid specific but you then ignored the effect that overall health has on those numbers too as that kinds flew in the face of your argument.

As for being a dick, look in the mirror friend.

Still asking for an actual argument from your part. And of course to you it's laughable as you deliberately choose not to understand.

The limits are far from covid specific a question that states "any disease that has killed so many in the first 10 months of existence" Where is this covid specific?

Nowhere because like it was pointed out there's plenty of other diseases like swine flu or HIV that could be compared too.

You on the other hand, to try to sound smart just threw an ailment out that can be caused by a plethora of reasons be it lifestyle or even hereditary reasons. Just like cancer and other ailments.

I know you are deliberately choosing a narrative because I can see in your comments that you are not that as thick as you want to sound like.

You just want to be right even confronted with evidence that proves you wrong.

And hey if being a dick is brnging actual information to the table instead of wild guesses and some weird info of the internet generation then I am a dick and I am proud of it.

However I prefer my definition of being a dick that is just insulting someone because you can't find arguments to counter what I am presenting to this discussion, and at least the decency to admit when you're wrong, which mind me i have done so already in this tread.

But hey common sense? Minimal respect for a constructive discussion? NAH! We're in the age of political incorrectness, is way nicer to just go on character attacks instead of actual presenting any info to the discussion.

Vieira82

Vieira82 wrote: »

Still asking for an actual argument from your part. And of course to you it's laughable as you deliberately choose not to understand.

The limits are far from covid specific a question that states "any disease that has killed so many in the first 10 months of existence" Where is this covid specific?

Nowhere because like it was pointed out there's plenty of other diseases like swine flu or HIV that could be compared too.

You on the other hand, to try to sound smart just threw an ailment out that can be caused by a plethora of reasons be it lifestyle or even hereditary reasons. Just like cancer and other ailments.

I know you are deliberately choosing a narrative because I can see in your comments that you are not that as thick as you want to sound like.

You just want to be right even confronted with evidence that proves you wrong.

And hey if being a dick is brnging actual information to the table instead of wild guesses and some weird info of the internet generation then I am a dick and I am proud of it.

However I prefer my definition of being a dick that is just insulting someone because you can't find arguments to counter what I am presenting to this discussion, and at least the decency to admit when you're wrong, which mind me i have done so already in this tread.

But hey common sense? Minimal respect for a constructive discussion? NAH! We're in the age of political incorrectness, is way nicer to just go on character attacks instead of actual presenting any info to the discussion.

Oh dear. Limited reply, ignoring much of what was said not just by me but also yourself. Ok then

Dempo1

karlitob wrote: »

We’re not scrambling. We know what our icu capacity and need is for the last 10 years. Every bed costs a million. Even if there was staff available the cost would be 1/4bn on top of the normal health budget. The only question is why would icu get that money and not all the other services who require investment. You’re only mouthing off about icu as if you know what you’re taking about because it’s in the news - you nothing of all the other equally valid and important needs out there. How much increase in tax are you willing to pay to fund all of those services. Or are you one of those people who think all the money that’s required is already available.

Secondly, we doubled our capacity in a few weeks and trained up hundreds of people. The only way we could do that is by not having any other patients on the wards ie cancelling services. The challenge now is to provide Covid AND non Covid care. So while we didn’t go anywhere near our capacity in March/April we have a much lower capacity now.

We have plenty of scope to use the private hospitals.

If we get overrun - then the ‘fault’ is with all of us citizens and taxpayers.

Whilst I would never wish to be critical of front line HSE staff, I had an op in May and couldn't praise them enough but I'll be blunt in my assessment of HSE management which is utterly shocking. I've watched there nonsensical press conferences recently and they put PR agencies to shame. I get financing, I get resources but mother of God, how is it we've less ICU capacity than 10 years ago, over €20 billion annually spent on health care and we've the lowest ICU beds per 100k in Europe, yes Europe.

This most recent debacle, I believe was motivated by a clear concern on the HSE be able to cope, and the most offensive thing that is poorly reported is that Spoofer Paul Reid claiming he knew nothing about the level 5 recommendation, this is just pure nonsense, there's a number of direct HSE on NPHET and its beggars belief the CEO was not informed.

Patrick2010

We had nearly 900 covid patients in hospital back in April and around 150 there now , does that not suggest we’re a
long way from a critical situation?
The available ICU figures doesn’t show the real figure as hospitals can increase quickly by converting hdu and ordinary wards. Also by using private hospitals again.

McHardcore

Seweryn wrote: »

I can't find an increase in deaths for this year no matter how hard I look at the numbers...

These figures were making the rounds on Facebooks pages. It was debunked on The Journal:

karlitob

Dempo1 wrote: »

Whilst I would never wish to be critical of front line HSE staff, I had an op in May and couldn't praise them enough but I'll be blunt in my assessment of HSE management which is utterly shocking. I've watched there nonsensical press conferences recently and they put PR agencies to shame. I get financing, I get resources but mother of God, how is it we've less ICU capacity than 10 years ago, over €20 billion annually spent on health care and we've the lowest ICU beds per 100k in Europe, yes Europe.

This most recent debacle, I believe was motivated by a clear concern on the HSE be able to cope, and the most offensive thing that is poorly reported is that Spoofer Paul Reid claiming he knew nothing about the level 5 recommendation, this is just pure nonsense, there's a number of direct HSE on NPHET and its beggars belief the CEO was not informed.

Healthcare is driven by government policy and funding. While it’s great to trot out the whole ‘frontline are angels/management are ****e’ - it’s not true no matter how good it makes people feel.

Don’t be under any illusions that doctors and nurses in this country run the health service. If they don’t do it - it won’t be done. A manger needs to be able to implement a threat - you cannot sack a nurse or a doc. So how can you manage - all you can do is balance.

The history of healthcare in this county has gotten us where we are today. All roads led to this point. Religious institutions. Noel Browne and the mother and child scheme. The Hanley report. Haughey and the closure of small city hospitals and consultant contracts. The HSE establishment. Co location. HSE - ISAs, Hospital Groups and CHOs and now RHAs. Each change was government policy with insufficient resources and powers given - managers can only manage so much.

You’ve got to spend to save. Insufficient investment has meant higher annual costs as we play catch up.

karlitob

Patrick2010 wrote: »

We had nearly 900 covid patients in hospital back in April and around 150 there now , does that not suggest we’re a
long way from a critical situation?
The available ICU figures doesn’t show the real figure as hospitals can increase quickly by converting hdu and ordinary wards. Also by using private hospitals again.

900 patients in hospital when there were no other patients and all staff were working on Covid.

There is less scope now that non-Covid patients - or the normal 100% occupancy rate - are back to normal (ish) services.

karlitob

Dempo1 wrote: »

Whilst I would never wish to be critical of front line HSE staff, I had an op in May and couldn't praise them enough but I'll be blunt in my assessment of HSE management which is utterly shocking..

Why would you never be critical of frontline staff?

Andrewf20

Vieira82 wrote: »

And as for this little comment... you couldn't be farther from the truth:

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/04/13/covid-young-people

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-recovery/young-healthy-adults-with-mild-covid-19-also-take-weeks-to-recover-cdc-idUKKCN24P2BU

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-causes-heart-damage-healthy-people.html

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/evidence-builds-covid-19-can-damage-heart-doctors-are-racing-understand-it

Those articles span from April to September, have fun reading them

The 1st link above related to deaths in young people was posted in April so I wouldn't consider it as relevant now. Bell shaped distributions will see young people die and old people survive covid, perhaps in equal measure. Death rates now are far less than the spring time in Europe.

The other articles are interesting in relation to damage to the heart and certainly its a nasty virus. I know of relatively fit middle aged people getting hammered by the virus for a week or 2 and in fact 1 guy I know still has mild symptoms from covid a few months after.

But I still feel that the the price being paid for lockdown measures now is possibly outweighing the impact of getting covid.

Vieira82

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

Now, just so we are on the same page before we continue here'

Your maths is the same as mine right? one fifth is 20% and that means 80% that dont feel the effects and take weeks to fully recover right? That places the 'majority' in the 80% with little effect. Correct?

And under 44, whats the deaths?

Heres some reading for yourself dear chap

"For every 1,000 people infected with the coronavirus who are under the age of 50, almost none will die. For people in their fifties and early sixties, about five will die — more men than women. The risk then climbs steeply as the years accrue. For every 1,000 people in their mid-seventies or older who are infected, around 116 will die" (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02483-2)

First of all, thanks for being civil in your comment.

If you want to extrapolate on maths we can do for Ireland and think it in this way and letting the virus run completely rampant, business as usual.

20% of a population of 5 Million is 1 Million correct? So imagine through the whole pandemic we have 1 Million people needing medical care or ICU support.

Let's divide that by months of one year and you got around 83k hospitalizations a month. Obviously this is speculation and there would be flutuation in these numbers. So let's round those numbers down to half. So in this context, could we agree that 40k hospitalizations a month would be catastrophic for the Health Services?

Keep in mind this is 40k hospitalizations on top of the regular health services.

That would be around 1300 hospitalizations daily.

Add to this that, there's people that have the virus latent for a number of months and then it comes back and people that get reinfected.

Also of those 80% if I am not mistaken there's not that many that are 100% assymptomatic and like you said they do have some symptoms for a few weeks.

Now let's look at the long haulers, people that get it and keep having symptoms and side effects for months. We're talking in a population of 5 Million, 1 Million of those being either dead or suffering long term.

Only 20% might look small but when you get them in actual numbers then that's something that makes a dent.


But let's try to be more realistic here... obviously it will not be all the population infected to let's slash that in half

So let's say the whole pandemic 2.5 Million Irish get infected. That means 500k in need of hospital care or dead.

Let's say those 500k in hospital corresponds to a period of two years, let's really stretch it as much as possible.

So that means 20.800 hospitalizations a month on average. And that's an average of 694 Hospitalizations a day for the period of two years.

This again on top of the regular hospitalizations for whatever, be it a car crash or just the average joe with kidney stones...

Are the numbers that unrealistic? And do you think the hospitals in Ireland can handle almost 700 extra hospitalizations a day?

This also of course is straight forward thinking does not have into account re infections or people with mild symptoms or whatever, just focus on those 20%.

Rubberchikken

The Hose has less money to spend on critical beds because it's wasted on the obscene amount if useless managers the Hose has deemed necessary to employ and now can't be gotten rid of.

Vieira82

Andrewf20 wrote: »

The 1st link above related to deaths in young people was posted in April so I wouldn't consider it as relevant now. Bell shaped distributions will see young people die and old people survive covid, perhaps in equal measure. Death rates now are far less than the spring time in Europe.

The other articles are interesting in relation to damage to the heart and certainly its a nasty virus. I know of relatively fit middle aged people getting hammered by the virus for a week or 2 and in fact 1 guy I know still has mild symptoms from covid a few months after.

But I still feel that the the price being paid for lockdown measures now is possibly outweighing the impact of getting covid.

Genuinely thanks for your comment and for keeping it civil. I tried to explain in my previous comment above this one why in mathematical terms it's important to curb the virus.

Also and according to WHO lockdowns should always be the last case scenario and countries like South Korea, Japan and New Zealand have been able to have minimal lockdowns through efficient contact tracing.

If you got time have a look at the comments from Dr. Mike Ryan from the WHO on this press conference from last week. Specifically what he says at the 1 hour mark. I fully agree with his words:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?extid=PPlCBraUANDJTJPr&v=613855985950549&ref=watch_permalink

zerosugarbuzz

Andrew Rynne, founder of Clane hospital has his say
https://www.facebook.com/TheIrishInquiry/videos/1571427663057838

Seweryn

McHardcore wrote: »

[/URL]

"No, there weren't 'only 717 deaths' in Ireland in July".

Of course there weren't.

Are the July figures being used for the comparison?
June figures?
May?

No.

To be fair, the records only up to April are in the table, where the numbers are at their peak and recorded with a delay of 3 months, which is reasonable for the comparison. Nobody would want to compare July death rates where less than half of the numbers are recorded.

Dempo1

karlitob wrote: »

Why would you never be critical of frontline staff?

Why would I exactly? There the folks who are actually dealing with this crisis, not the clowns who spend their time spouting out nonsensical stats and portraying how wonderful they really are.

Dempo1

karlitob wrote: »

Healthcare is driven by government policy and funding. While it’s great to trot out the whole ‘frontline are angels/management are ****e’ - it’s not true no matter how good it makes people feel.

Don’t be under any illusions that doctors and nurses in this country run the health service. If they don’t do it - it won’t be done. A manger needs to be able to implement a threat - you cannot sack a nurse or a doc. So how can you manage - all you can do is balance.

The history of healthcare in this county has gotten us where we are today. All roads led to this point. Religious institutions. Noel Browne and the mother and child scheme. The Hanley report. Haughey and the closure of small city hospitals and consultant contracts. The HSE establishment. Co location. HSE - ISAs, Hospital Groups and CHOs and now RHAs. Each change was government policy with insufficient resources and powers given - managers can only manage so much.

You’ve got to spend to save. Insufficient investment has meant higher annual costs as we play catch up.

I do agree but who exactly drcoded to close down hospitals in march? I got the need for dedicated wards but I saw first hand the damage done by effectively closing major hospitals down, indeed when I had an op, I was brought initially to a Midlands hospital, patched up sent home and had to make my way to a private hospital for the op two days later, indeed the consultant is actually based at the Midlands hospital. I was one of 3 patients in the A&E ward at the general hospital, it was like tge set of an eery horror movie, lights dimed, not a sound, not a person in sight.

As an aside I have a separate long term Thyroid issue and all clinics stopped, some tele appointments which are beyond farcical and re the op, I requires Physio, and of course that two over the phone, seriously its like doing yoga via email, just absurd. But more concerning, 7 months later people wity far more serious issues, cancer, screening etc have been abandoned and waiting lists now beyond comprehension.

I will never get the decision to close down hospitals and certainly not get permitting seriously ill patients be essentially abandoned, these are unforgivable decisions and Typically HSE management have no answers or it seems solutions.

Jim Root

So was it Donnelly who leaked it then?

Dempo1

Jim Root wrote: »

So was it Donnelly who leaked it then?

Hmmm mm, intriguing question, I've a sense some interesting headlines tomorrow, but its pretty evident Houlihan and certainly not senior NPHET people to blame, I actually suspect it was a HSE person, running telling tales etc etc

McHardcore

Seweryn wrote: »

"No, there weren't 'only 717 deaths' in Ireland in July".

Of course there weren't.

You are making the wrong conclusion from The Journal article. The figures in your table dont match what is reported by the Central Statistics Office.

Seweryn wrote: »

I can't find an increase in deaths for this year no matter how hard I look at the numbers...

From the article, they should be increased to the following:




Your 2020 Q1 figures look to be lower than the CSOs figures too.

Rrrrrr2

Andrewf20 wrote: »

It's a known flaw in human psychology whereby group meetings result in a group think mentality. I.e. The group go along with orders or the opinion of the leader. It doesn't always happen but it can happen. It has been well studied. They even did experiments which showed that people can frequently sit back in meetings even though they know the wrong decisions are getting made.

Yes that sounds very familiar alright. In work, even though you think something is utterly ridiculous and won’t work you won’t bother saying it as it’s the party line and others appear all for it. In the end usually you’re quietly proved right.
It’s the same in this case as well be doing a Sweden at some stage but we have to endure the delusion and theatre of failure first.

Dempo1

Best comment of the day via the Journal

"Tony Houlihan looking well for a man stabbed in the back on Monday"

BENDYBINN

Dempo1 wrote: »

Best comment of the day via the Journal

"Tony Houlihan looking well for a man stabbed in the back on Monday"

Tonight’s press conference was like a party political broadcast on behalf of the nefet party.....

Dempo1

BENDYBINN wrote: »

Tonight’s press conference was like a party political broadcast on behalf of the nefet party.....

Tonight's press conference was insightful, factual, extremely professional, yes grim, yes worrying but certainly not political albeit it did make Leo's hysterical reactions on Monday look exactly what they were, nasty, unedifying, disgraceful and moronic and so elegantly done that not a negative word said about him or government. It was actually a masterclass of professionalism, albeit extremely worrying.

Tenzor07

Donnelly knew about Holoham's plans for a national lockdown:

Martin Mehole knew too..

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/holohan-warned-government-about-covid-fears-before-controversial-nphet-meeting-39599176.html

Looks like Varadkar's got an apology to make?

Dempo1

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Donnelly knew about Holoham's plans for a national lockdown:

Martin Mehole knew too..

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/holohan-warned-government-about-covid-fears-before-controversial-nphet-meeting-39599176.html

Looks like Varadkar's got an apology to make?

Leo apologise? Hell will freeze over before he ever ever admits he's wrong, wasn't he once Minister for Health? How did that go? I think his disgraceful and sneaky undermining of NPHET and indeed tge very government he helped form is about to bite him and its time for him to go. He really picked tge wrong battle here, a total fool and shocking to think he's actually a Doctor.

I somehow. Doubt it waa Donnelly running to Leo though, I still think it came via HSE reps on NPHET running to Leo directly.

stockshares

Dempo1 wrote: »

Hmmm mm, intriguing question, I've a sense some interesting headlines tomorrow, but its pretty evident Houlihan and certainly not senior NPHET people to blame, I actually suspect it was a HSE person, running telling tales etc etc

This article(Oct 7th 8.40pm)
https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/holohan-warned-government-about-covid-fears-before-controversial-nphet-meeting-39599176.html

Quote
Despite suggestions the CMO went on a solo run in pushing for a national lockdown, it has now transpired Mr Holohan was keeping the health minister fully informed throughout last weekend. It can also be revealed Taoiseach Micheál Martin knew on Saturday afternoon about Nphet’s plan to hold an emergency meeting

Contradicts this article(Oct 7th 2.30am)
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/tony-holohan-meets-senior-civil-servant-fortalks-to-clear-air-after-bust-up-39596357.html

Quote
Mr Holohan met Department of the Taoiseach secretary-general Martin Fraser in Government Buildings at lunchtime yesterday after the controversy surrounding the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) recommendation of Level 5 restrictions for the entire country. Mr Fraser was understood to be furious about how Mr Holohan's recommendation for a second lockdown emerged and made his views known at a Cabinet meeting on Monday.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin was not informed Nphet was meeting on Sunday night, which was a serious concern to some in Government.

Dravokivich

Dempo1 wrote: »

Leo apologise? Hell will freeze over before he ever ever admits he's wrong, wasn't he once Minister for Health? How did that go? I think his disgraceful and sneaky undermining of NPHET and indeed tge very government he helped form is about to bite him and its time for him to go. He really picked tge wrong battle here, a total fool and shocking to think he's actually a Doctor.

I somehow. Doubt it waa Donnelly running to Leo though, I still think it came via HSE reps on NPHET running to Leo directly.

Its what Leo always did as a minister. He couldn't undermine or challenge anyone when leading the government because he was responsible for them.

Sweet.Science

Is Ireland the only country that a made up team of experts are getting this publicity ?

CIARAN_BOYLE

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Is Ireland the only country that a made up team of experts are getting this publicity ?

Of course not. The chief medical officers and their colleagues of every country are getting a massive amount of airtime everywhere.

Fachi Whitty McBridge Smith (and Calderwood lost her job) and Atherton have become familiar names as the senior medical officials from different countries.