Have NPHET lost the attention of people?

is_that_so

Hunky Monster wrote: »

The radio this morning is all about pushing us towards level 4 now and if we all behave they’ll allow us to have a Christmas....

Jesus Christ.

Who have they had on? Levels 4 & 5 are contingent on there not being any changes in behaviour. What is true is that the projected numbers are now more robust and accurate.

Vieira82

patnor1011 wrote: »

Lol dude you are joking right?
This "new virus" is literaly killing only the people with problems caused by dietary issues and bad lifestyle choices.
Even old people with a good diet and healthy lifestyle can beat it with ease.

No it's not, read the data again, plenty of healthy people not only dying of it but also now being long haulers of a plethora of issues including heart disease. Not my fault you're misinformed.

Mr.Crinklewood

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Tis mad alright, you d swear there was a deadly virus about the place

Its likely a case of "Do the opposite of"

is_that_so

Andrewf20 wrote: »

Deaths very low so likely not as deadly as in March. Same in Sweden and Japan with almost no lockdown.

No, we are more aware of who are most at risk and protecting them better.

Andrewf20

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Tis mad alright, you d swear there was a deadly virus about the place

Very unlikely to be as deadly as it was 6 months ago. Very low deaths here or Sweden / Japan with almost no lockdown.

Vieira82

Andrewf20 wrote: »

No problem at all.

Unfortunately I don't have the time now to listen to the full video but I had a listen to Michael Ryan at the 1hr mark and a few minutes before hand too. He mentioned a small uptick in deaths as we enter into the autumn but I get the impression that this is expected for this time of year anyway? Is the level of death increasing at a rate higher than what's considered normal in previous years? From what I have seen, it doesnt appear so far to be the case.

He mentions about protecting the old and vulnerable which I understand. However in previous years, in Europe up to 140,000 people died of respiratory illnesses with no lockdowns (140K in 2017/18 for example vs approx 190K for covid). Should we have had lock downs in those years or in years in the future also? Where do we draw the line?

Id need to dig out the link - but Sweden pulled 100 years of data for seasonal deaths for each year. What was interesting was that there were numerous years with similar or more excess deaths in winter compared to the covid spike. From a subjective look at the graph, this could have been every 8 - 10 years. The year 2000, for example, apparently saw more deaths in Europe compared to Covid but it was over a longer time frame.

I think what's getting lost in the noise of covid is the impact of the lockdown which seems to be getting less air play generally. It seems some experts are on board with this also:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54442386

And of course we have Sweden where deaths have been pretty much in single figures from around mid July with almost no lockdown. Apparently Japan is similar to Sweden in their approach and their death rates have been very low since the start of June.

Agree with almost everything you wrote except Sweden. Sweden is not an example of anything. I understand anti-lockdown people looking for examples of success of this but just like Dr. Mike Ryan says, there are examples of this and Sweden is not one of them.

The reason why countries end up in lockdowns, the literal last resort option is because of constant failures on track and tracing and correct gov. messaging in regards to all we should be doing. Again, there's really good examples in SK , Japan, New Zealand, Vietnam and even other nordic countries except Sweden...

Keep in mind SK had the first wave before Europe and they curbed it, they have a higher population density than probably any country in Europe. But their track and tracing has been years in the making and worked effectively.

This is the kind of examples we should be looking towards and of course and effective, strong gov. message which is my personal opinion we simply don't have in Ireland as the gov. will swing as where the lobbyists will turn them too...

At the moment and again. Sweden is not an example of nothing, their cases are going up again and even higher than the first wave, on top of that they are making less tests than before. Keep in mind Netherlands, Asustria, Czech Republic all pretty much came out unscathed from the first wave and are now facing huge outbreaks...

ALso keep in mind that they used this in EU negotiations for the rescue emergency bill to point the fingers at the likes of Spain and Italy for having so many cases as it's because they're Spanish and Italians...

This whole idolatration with countries of people with blonde hair and blue eyes has to stop, there's plenty of good examples of countries that curbed the virus with minimal lockdown strategies and very few deaths, and those are the ones we should be replicating.

suicide_circus

Well now, NPHET are challenging the narrative and are saying MOH Stephen D was spoken to at teatime on Sunday prior to any leak

Captain_Crash

Vieira82 wrote: »

At the moment and again. Sweden is not an example of nothing, their cases are going up again and even higher than the first wave, on top of that they are making less tests than before

Your falling into the trap of a casedemic here. Yes cases in Sweden (and all over the EU) are going up. But neither deaths or hospital admissions are rising significantly.

Sweden (and other EU countries) seem to be accepting that cases will happen and are paying more attention to the level of hospitalizations that occur. In fact Belguim has changed tact altogether and has stopped testing unless you show up in hospital with symptoms.

Simply put 100,000 cases with no pressure on hospitals isnt an issue.... and when authorities see deaths start to rise significantly, action will be taken where necessary.

RoryMac

Vieira82 wrote: »

No it's not, read the data again, plenty of healthy people not only dying of it but also now being long haulers of a plethora of issues including heart disease. Not my fault you're misinformed.

What data shows this??

quartz1

...Minister Donnolly needs to do some explaining ....did he share the information to his Cabinet Colleagues and if not why not. When he saw the uproar in cabinet did he not tell them he had been informed. When he spoke to the CMO Saturday and Sunday was he to busy to try appraise himself of where the numbers were going .

Lots of Question probably with no answers but here's the important issue : in about three weeks we will have an idea of the merits around this issue when we experience where the virus is at.

facehugger99

suicide_circus wrote: »

Well now, NPHET are challenging the narrative and are saying MOH Stephen D was spoken to at teatime on Sunday prior to any leak

The whole issue stinks.

NPHET should not be in a public-facing role.

It suited the politicians to hide behind them at the start but it's starting to becoming clear to even the slowest of learners, what following NPHET 'advice' will mean for the country.

Dr Tony and the other 39(!) members need to be muzzled and fast - they are there to advise government and are unelected, single-issue hysteria-merchants, too fond of the smell of their own farts.

Vieira82

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Your falling into the trap of a casedemic here. Yes cases in Sweden (and all over the EU) are going up. But neither deaths or hospital admissions are rising significantly.

Sweden (and other EU countries) seem to be accepting that cases will happen and are paying more attention to the level of hospitalizations that occur. In fact Belguim has changed tact altogether and has stopped testing unless you show up in hospital with symptoms.

Simply put 100,000 cases with no pressure on hospitals isnt an issue.... and when authorities see deaths start to rise significantly, action will be taken where necessary.

That is all fine and makes sense except one thing, when the deaths start to rise significantly is already too late to do anything. Again, look at Japan, SK, Vietnam, NZ and other countries. When you have deaths occurring means the spread is so far and wide and it's impossible to control the situation, even a lockdown will be senseless when you reach this point.

Belgium though is not an example either, they're the country in Europe with more deaths per 100k the strategy has been heavily criticized since the first wave and continues to be criticized now.

And on that topic the leading epidemiologist was actually attacked on the subway by an anti-masker and there has been a gigantic public outcry against lockdowns and masks.

But back on topic. This strategy of only testing who walks in the hospital is precisely what lead to so many deaths in the first wave. As hospitals where overwhelmed the last majority of cases that where asymptomatic where not tested. So the numbers of infected rate in comparison with deaths hospitalizations was skewed. The only country in Europe that massively tested was Germany so you can look at their first wave and have an actual infected to hospitalized/deaths ratio.

Trying to hide this is senseless when we spent the last 6 months trying to know where it is and be on top of it. It's basically going full herd immunity and I'm afraid this will blow in Belgium's face very soon.

But I may be wrong and I invite you to come and tell me here in 6 months time that I was wrong and I won't have any problem admitting that. And by the gods I hope you prove me wrong.

Wanderer78

Andrewf20 wrote: »

Very unlikely to be as deadly as it was 6 months ago. Very low deaths here or Sweden / Japan with almost no lockdown.

true, but maybe the swedish and japanese health care systems are far superior than ours

jackal

Vieira82 wrote: »

But back on topic. This strategy of only testing who walks in the hospital is precisely what lead to so many deaths in the first wave. As hospitals where overwhelmed the last majority of cases that where asymptomatic where not tested. So the numbers of infected rate in comparison with deaths hospitalizations was skewed. The only country in Europe that massively tested was Germany so you can look at their first wave and have an actual infected to hospitalized/deaths ratio.

I don't remember our hospitals being overwhelmed? I remember private hospitals being paid handsomely to be on standby, but never used. I remember the UK building "pop-up" Nightingale hospitals for millions of pounds and one of the six they built saw a handful of patients.

Also consider 2/3 of the deaths in Ireland never saw the inside of a hospital, let alone an ICU bed.

Andrewf20

Vieira82 wrote: »

Agree with almost everything you wrote except Sweden. Sweden is not an example of anything. I understand anti-lockdown people looking for examples of success of this but just like Dr. Mike Ryan says, there are examples of this and Sweden is not one of them.

The reason why countries end up in lockdowns, the literal last resort option is because of constant failures on track and tracing and correct gov. messaging in regards to all we should be doing. Again, there's really good examples in SK , Japan, New Zealand, Vietnam and even other nordic countries except Sweden...

Keep in mind SK had the first wave before Europe and they curbed it, they have a higher population density than probably any country in Europe. But their track and tracing has been years in the making and worked effectively.

This is the kind of examples we should be looking towards and of course and effective, strong gov. message which is my personal opinion we simply don't have in Ireland as the gov. will swing as where the lobbyists will turn them too...

At the moment and again. Sweden is not an example of nothing, their cases are going up again and even higher than the first wave, on top of that they are making less tests than before. Keep in mind Netherlands, Asustria, Czech Republic all pretty much came out unscathed from the first wave and are now facing huge outbreaks...

Also keep in mind that they used this in EU negotiations for the rescue emergency bill to point the fingers at the likes of Spain and Italy for having so many cases as it's because they're Spanish and Italians...

This whole idolatration with countries of people with blonde hair and blue eyes has to stop, there's plenty of good examples of countries that curbed the virus with minimal lockdown strategies and very few deaths, and those are the ones we should be replicating.

For sure, Sweden was hit hard early on and there’s questions about whether their approach was a success overall. Their economy was hit hard also due in part to less international trade and tourism. However, they opened back up to a large degree during the pandemic in early May with recommendations still in place to social distance and for elderly people to stay home. Deaths continued to fall. Allowing for population differences, it looks like Sweden is doing better (slightly) than the UK for deaths at this stage.

There were 1 or 2 people on boards a few days back who are living in Sweden (id need to dig out their posts buried in 1 of these threads) that basically said that the lockdowns there are not like Ireland & implied that life is fairly back to normal now.

You refer to cases rising, but a casedemic seems to be in play. Theres also questions over whether PCR testing is reliable for detecting active viruses.

Yes South Korea seemed to deal well with the virus, I agree there and their economy is expect to only shrink by 1%. I must look into that. New Zealand economy looks like it took a hard knock, forecasts of over a 12% drop.

As mentioned a few pages back, the Cornwall region was swamped with tourists in the summer after lockdown eased in June which fuelled fears there would be a spike in deaths. Apparently there was no ICU spikes for 3 months since and zero deaths. And thats with a 25% over 65 population.

I also posted this in another covid forum for some perspective, from 2015:

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...aths-1.2099569

“As the island of Ireland currently has the highest levels of excess winter mortality in Europe, with an estimated 2,800 excess deaths during each winter..."

Im not sure what winter is defined as exactly in the article, assuming its the standard 3 months, then 2800 / 3 months = 933 average excess deaths per month is considered normal. Thats roughly 30 deaths per day.

Nothing is absolute, but all this makes me feel that a 2nd spike in deaths is unlikely. Is there any country seeing a 2nd wave in deaths?

plodder

facehugger99 wrote: »

Dr Tony and the other 39(!) members ...

I always wondered about that. What is the point of a body of 40 people sitting around a table, or squeezed around it, if any of the early images from months ago were correct? Though I assume they meet over Zoom mostly.

I'd bet a pound to a penny that these meetings of 40 people are dominated by a small number, and the others are there for the ride (or the leaking opportunities). It should be a much smaller group, if for no other reason than to curb the leaks.

xhomelezz

Andrewf20 wrote: »

For sure, Sweden was hit hard early on and there’s questions about whether their approach was a success overall. Their economy was hit hard also due in part to less international trade and tourism. However, they opened back up to a large degree during the pandemic in early May with recommendations still in place to social distance and for elderly people to stay home. Deaths continued to fall. Allowing for population differences, it looks like Sweden is doing better than the UK for deaths at this stage.

There were 1 or 2 people on boards a few days back who are living in Sweden (id need to dig out their posts buried in 1 of these threads) that basically said that the lockdowns there are not like Ireland & implied that life is fairly back to normal now.

You refer to cases rising, but a casedemic seems to be in play. Theres also questions over whether PCR testing is reliable for detecting active viruses.

Yes South Korea seemed to deal well with the virus, I agree there and their economy is expect to only shrink by 1%. I must look into that. New Zealand economy looks like it took a hard knock, forecasts of over a 12% drop.

As mentioned a few pages back, the Cornwall region was swamped with tourists in the summer after lockdown eased in June which fuelled fears there would be a spike in deaths. Apparently there was no ICU spikes for 3 months since and zero deaths. And thats with a 25% over 65 population.

I also posted this in another covid forum for some perspective, from 2015:

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...aths-1.2099569

“As the island of Ireland currently has the highest levels of excess winter mortality in Europe, with an estimated 2,800 excess deaths during each winter..."

Im not sure what winter is defined as exactly in the article, assuming its the standard 3 months, then 2800 / 3 months = 933 average excess deaths per month is considered normal. Thats roughly 30 deaths per day.

Nothing is absolute, but all this makes me feel that a 2nd spike in deaths is unlikely. Is there any country seeing a 2nd wave in deaths?

Well certainly doesn't go well back at home, since start of September

https://www.expats.cz/czech-news/article/czech-republic-coronavirus-updates-october-8-new-record-with-5-000-cases-more-restrictions-coming-tomorrow

Andrewf20

xhomelezz wrote: »

Well certainly doesn't go well back at home, since start of September

https://www.expats.cz/czech-news/article/czech-republic-coronavirus-updates-october-8-new-record-with-5-000-cases-more-restrictions-coming-tomorrow

Thats cases, not deaths that are rising significantly. Deaths still fairly low, with a population of 10 million. They have a strange curve in that deaths were very low back in the spring time (no real wave). I wonder if there is a going to be a "dry tinder" scenerio there.

xhomelezz

Andrewf20 wrote: »

Thats cases, not deaths.

Read the full article, it's in English..

xhomelezz

Andrewf20 wrote: »

Thats cases, not deaths that are rising significantly. Deaths still fairly low, with a population of 10 million. They have a strange curve in that deaths were very low back in the spring time (no real wave). I wonder if there is a going to be a "dry tinder" scenerio there.

Death count still raising significantly, so are hospitalisations and cases in ICU.

frisbeeface

quartz1 wrote: »

...Minister Donnolly needs to do some explaining ....did he share the information to his Cabinet Colleagues and if not why not. When he saw the uproar in cabinet did he not tell them he had been informed. When he spoke to the CMO Saturday and Sunday was he to busy to try appraise himself of where the numbers were going .

Lots of Question probably with no answers but here's the important issue : in about three weeks we will have an idea of the merits around this issue when we experience where the virus is at.

According to the Irish Times, he was informed of the CMO's concerns but not that the CMO was going to recommend a move to Level 5. So I guess that's Donnolly's explanation.

Captain_Crash

xhomelezz wrote: »

Death count still raising significantly, so are hospitalisations and cases in ICU.

Cases have shot up so naturally deaths will rise, the more people who have it, the more chance of someone who has tested positive dying (for any reason).

But the caveat here is.... deaths have not risen out of kilter with how they were before... that is to say, its not an alarming increase. They still have less than 1000 deaths total.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/

crossman47

facehugger99 wrote: »

The whole issue stinks.

NPHET should not be in a public-facing role.

It suited the politicians to hide behind them at the start but it's starting to becoming clear to even the slowest of learners, what following NPHET 'advice' will mean for the country.

Dr Tony and the other 39(!) members need to be muzzled and fast - they are there to advise government and are unelected, single-issue hysteria-merchants, too fond of the smell of their own farts.

You sound like Michael Gove - sick of experts. Look where that has got the UK.

carq

We know the death rate for healthy under 65 years is about .03% - 1 in 3000 or so.
Any idea what expected hospitalisation rate is for this age group ?


If increased cocooning measures were brought in for vulnerable people it would allow increased ecomonic activity.
Keep the hotels open / keep the pubs open / restaurants / gyms .


e.g over 70s - no access to bars / restaurants or else special cocoon access days for this group with stricter safeguards.
Strict enforced quiet time where they can shop etc with other cocooners.
special public transport services.

Biggest issue of course would be family members contact and appointments etc but to me it seems a better strategy than country wide lock downs every few months.

xhomelezz

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Cases have shot up so naturally deaths will rise, the more people who have it, the more chance of someone who has tested positive dying (for any reason).

But the caveat here is.... deaths have not risen out of kilter with how they were before... that is to say, its not an alarming increase. They still have less than 1000 deaths total.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/

I get it, still less than 1000. Alarming for me is the jump in deaths in less than two months period, same goes with hospitalisations and cases in ICU. If same will start happening here, will hospitals cope with it?

Andrewf20

xhomelezz wrote: »

Death count still raising significantly, so are hospitalisations and cases in ICU.

I read the article and yes the rise in increasing but overall deaths still quite low. Certainly need to keep an eye on the slope of the increases which looks concerning.

The czech republic may be a bit of an anomaly as they didnt have a wave of deaths in the spring time - perhaps this is the start if it. The most that died on any day in Spring was only 15.

Vieira82

jackal wrote: »

I don't remember our hospitals being overwhelmed? I remember private hospitals being paid handsomely to be on standby, but never used. I remember the UK building "pop-up" Nightingale hospitals for millions of pounds and one of the six they built saw a handful of patients.

Also consider 2/3 of the deaths in Ireland never saw the inside of a hospital, let alone an ICU bed.

apologies if I did not make this clear, I was speaking in general terms on EU countries with high mortality rates such as Italy, France, Spain.

I think in Ireland we dodged the bullet just like in Portugal due to early and strong lockdown measures.

Notice however that Portugal was always slightly ahead of Ireland in terms of deaths and cases until May when Portugal fully re-openned. Then Ireland obviously not only had less cases but got to single digits while Portugal was having outbreaks nationwide.

Notice too that, Portugal has a more robust public health sector and spent the Summer organizing for a potential second wave and even last week received more respirators.

I just have not seen this happening in Ireland. Add to this the systemic overcrowding of public hospitals. I myself had to go to CUH in Cork on the early hours of a Monday and the ER was absolutely jammed with patients. Got in at midnight, only got seen at 8 AM, was put into a nurses break room at 8 AM as there where no beds, and only got discharged at 4 PM after a CT Scan and X-Ray. Through this whole thing I kept receiving apologies by doctors and nurses for the delays and for not having a place for me and everyone was up the walls with work the whole night.

This was at the beginning of August, where I assume most people where staycationing and schools, colleges where out... maybe I got unlucky and it was a one in a million, but if this is in normal circumstances in August.. can't imagine how it would be in a normal winter, but even more a pandemic winter...

But again I hope to all the gods that I am wrong and all of you are right, I'm not wishfull of people dying or getting gravely ill, just like all of you I wish this was done already.

Thierry12

carq wrote: »

We know the death rate for healthy under 65 years is about .03% - 1 in 3000 or so.
Any idea what expected hospitalisation rate is for this age group ?


If increased cocooning measures were brought in for vulnerable people it would allow increased ecomonic activity.
Keep the hotels open / keep the pubs open / restaurants / gyms .


e.g over 70s - no access to bars / restaurants or else special cocoon access days for this group with stricter safeguards.
Strict enforced quiet time where they can shop etc with other cocooners.
special public transport services.

Biggest issue of course would be family members contact and appointments etc but to me it seems a better strategy than country wide lock downs every few months.

All makes sense but won't happen

In this together

Government report here

Hospitalised 2.95%
ICU 0.14%
Death 0.15%

At 1000 cases a day looks like 30 a day in hospital reading that

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/

What I find crazy is 7 months in government haven't adviced of any treatment protocol to public

We know Zinc, Vitamin D, HCQ, azithromycin, various steriods are effective

Rogue GPs around the world are using them to keep people all out of hospitals

Whats our policy

Take paracetamol, if it gets worse go to hospital?

No GP involvement?

bb1234567

Andrewf20 wrote: »

For sure, Sweden was hit hard early on and there’s questions about whether their approach was a success overall. Their economy was hit hard also due in part to less international trade and tourism. However, they opened back up to a large degree during the pandemic in early May with recommendations still in place to social distance and for elderly people to stay home. Deaths continued to fall. Allowing for population differences, it looks like Sweden is doing better (slightly) than the UK for deaths at this stage.

There were 1 or 2 people on boards a few days back who are living in Sweden (id need to dig out their posts buried in 1 of these threads) that basically said that the lockdowns there are not like Ireland & implied that life is fairly back to normal now.

You refer to cases rising, but a casedemic seems to be in play. Theres also questions over whether PCR testing is reliable for detecting active viruses.

Yes South Korea seemed to deal well with the virus, I agree there and their economy is expect to only shrink by 1%. I must look into that. New Zealand economy looks like it took a hard knock, forecasts of over a 12% drop.

As mentioned a few pages back, the Cornwall region was swamped with tourists in the summer after lockdown eased in June which fuelled fears there would be a spike in deaths. Apparently there was no ICU spikes for 3 months since and zero deaths. And thats with a 25% over 65 population.

I also posted this in another covid forum for some perspective, from 2015:

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...aths-1.2099569

“As the island of Ireland currently has the highest levels of excess winter mortality in Europe, with an estimated 2,800 excess deaths during each winter..."

Im not sure what winter is defined as exactly in the article, assuming its the standard 3 months, then 2800 / 3 months = 933 average excess deaths per month is considered normal. Thats roughly 30 deaths per day.

Nothing is absolute, but all this makes me feel that a 2nd spike in deaths is unlikely. Is there any country seeing a 2nd wave in deaths?

Do you mean in Europe specifically? Yes countries have seen second waves, 20,000 died in Iran's second and ongoing third waves. Parts of the US such as Lousiana and Missisippi also saw more people die in secondary wave than the first. Russia looks like it will also see more deaths in it's second wave

Captain_Crash

xhomelezz wrote: »

I get it, still less than 1000. Alarming for me is the jump in deaths in less than two months period, same goes with hospitalisations and cases in ICU. If same will start happening here, will hospitals cope with it?

Any rise in deaths requires scrutiny, and I agree if it starts happening here then we have to ask can our hospitals cope? I wont get into a debate on the failings of the HSE but I don't have much confidence. But in CZ its worth noting that cases have more than tripled since early Sept but deaths "only" doubled, so the death rate is falling. Also as another poster mentioned, it appears they never had a first wave.

If the predictions of NPHET in that letter the other day happen within 4 weeks I may be worried... but, I don't believe they will. In early Sept Nolan said we'd have 5000 cases a day by mid October if the trend continues. The trend did continue and here we are seeing between 400-600 and almost no deaths, so any NPHET prediction needs to be taken with a pinch of salt and a lot of balance!