Have NPHET lost the attention of people?

bb1234567

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Any rise in deaths requires scrutiny, and I agree if it starts happening here then we have to ask can our hospitals cope? I wont get into a debate on the failings of the HSE but I don't have much confidence. But in CZ its worth noting that cases have more than tripled since early Sept but deaths "only" doubled, so the death rate is falling. Also as another poster mentioned, it appears they never had a first wave.

If the predictions of NPHET in that letter the other day happen within 4 weeks I may be worried... but, I don't believe they will. In early Sept Nolan said we'd have 5000 cases a day by mid October if the trend continues. The trend did continue and here we are seeing between 400-600 and almost no deaths, so any NPHET prediction needs to be taken with a pinch of salt and a lot of balance!

Don't see how you think deaths are decreasing, by far the highest daily deaths were OCtober 6th and 7th
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/

Deaths only now appear to be catching up in CZ, 350 in ICU in a country double our population is already a huge strain on healthcare. With the highest cases ever yesterday this will get worse before it improves

Captain_Crash

bb1234567 wrote: »

Don't see how you think deaths are decreasing, by far the highest daily deaths were OCtober 6th and 7th
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/

Deaths only now appear to be catching up in CZ, 350 in ICU in a country double our population is already a huge strain on healthcare. With the highest cases ever yesterday this will get worse before it improves

Read my post, death rate is decreasing... deaths will never decrease, once your dead your dead. The ICU rate is concerning but as mentioned, they never had a first wave to begin with and id imagine have a higher ICU capacity so dont have to worry about sending aul wans directly to nursing homes due to lack of beds, like our HSE did! How did that go again?

McHardcore

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I have been repeating this point for months.

2020 is a normal year on the death count.

Thats not true. Excess mortality increased 14% of the expected level between week 10 and 36 for the EuroMOMO countries.

Vieira82

Just a small off topic. Spanish High Court just declared Madrid lockdown as violating fundamental rights and liberties and therefore illegal.

Andrewf20

bb1234567 wrote: »

Do you mean in Europe specifically? Yes countries have seen second waves, 20,000 died in Iran's second and ongoing third waves. Parts of the US such as Lousiana and Missisippi also saw more people die in secondary wave than the first. Russia looks like it will also see more deaths in it's second wave

I was thinking world wide. Good spots - I wasnt aware of the waves in Iran, Louisiana etc. Ill do a bit more reading into them.

tobefrank321

Patrick2010 wrote: »

We had nearly 900 covid patients in hospital back in April and around 150 there now , does that not suggest we’re a
long way from a critical situation?
The available ICU figures doesn’t show the real figure as hospitals can increase quickly by converting hdu and ordinary wards. Also by using private hospitals again.

All of this may be true, which makes the latest NPHET "power grab" mind boggling.

It feels like NPHET want to remind the government every so often they are running the country and thankfully the government told them where to go.

There is no need for a level 5 lockdown for a long time if ever. When we hit 100 in ICU and 750 in hospital, maybe then.

Andrewf20

bb1234567 wrote: »

Do you mean in Europe specifically? Yes countries have seen second waves, 20,000 died in Iran's second and ongoing third waves. Parts of the US such as Lousiana and Missisippi also saw more people die in secondary wave than the first. Russia looks like it will also see more deaths in it's second wave

Just trying to get a sense of Russia & Irans waves of deaths this year compared what is considered normal. Getting background info can be a bitty challenge but heres some numbers I pulled, which hopefully I have right...

Russian population = 144 million, 22,056 deaths so far this year from covid (not 12 months yet of course). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_in_Russia mentioned in 2008 that 45,000 died from respiratory illnesses.(3.8% of total deaths).

Iran population = 81 million. 27,700 deaths so far this year from covid (10 months say).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7495408/#:~:text=In%20Iran%2C%20the%20mortality%20rate,2008%20to%202018%20%5B7%5D.

"In Iran, the mortality rate due to respiratory system diseases (MRRSDs) was 9.8% of total deaths in 2019 [6], with the level as high as 14% in the capital city Tehran. This means that 5000 people in Tehran die of RSDs every year, making it one of the most common causes of death in the city from 2008 to 2018 [7].Sep 17, 2020"

https://www.statista.com/statistics/580185/death-rate-in-iran/

Total Iran death rate from link above is roughly 4.8 per 1000 people for the last few years. 81 million / 1000 x 4.8 = roughly 388,000 people die in Iran each year. 9.8% of that is 38K people dying from respiratory diseases.

So are the numbers far from what is normally expected anyway? Ill need more time to dig into Louisiana, Mississippi etc.

karlitob

Vieira82 wrote: »

Just a small off topic. Spanish High Court just declared Madrid lockdown as violating fundamental rights and liberties and therefore illegal.

Interesting. With all rights comes responsibility.

normanoffside

quartz1 wrote: »

...Minister Donnolly needs to do some explaining ....did he share the information to his Cabinet Colleagues and if not why not. When he saw the uproar in cabinet did he not tell them he had been informed. When he spoke to the CMO Saturday and Sunday was he to busy to try appraise himself of where the numbers were going .

Lots of Question probably with no answers but here's the important issue : in about three weeks we will have an idea of the merits around this issue when we experience where the virus is at.

Donnelly was too busy preparing his twitter video about his glorious first 100 days in charge to concentrate on anything else

https://twitter.com/DonnellyStephen/status/1313886753263149058

Bass Reeves

Andrewf20 wrote: »

Just trying to get a sense of Russia & Irans waves of deaths this year compared what is considered normal. Getting background info can be a bitty challenge but heres some numbers I pulled, which hopefully I have right...

Russian population = 144 million, 22,056 deaths so far this year from covid (not 12 months yet of course). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_in_Russia mentioned in 2008 that 45,000 died from respiratory illnesses.(3.8% of total deaths).

Iran population = 81 million. 27,700 deaths so far this year from covid (10 months say).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7495408/#:~:text=In%20Iran%2C%20the%20mortality%20rate,2008%20to%202018%20%5B7%5D.

"In Iran, the mortality rate due to respiratory system diseases (MRRSDs) was 9.8% of total deaths in 2019 [6], with the level as high as 14% in the capital city Tehran. This means that 5000 people in Tehran die of RSDs every year, making it one of the most common causes of death in the city from 2008 to 2018 [7].Sep 17, 2020"

https://www.statista.com/statistics/580185/death-rate-in-iran/

Total Iran death rate from link above is roughly 4.8 per 1000 people for the last few years. 81 million / 1000 x 4.8 = roughly 388,000 people die in Iran each year. 9.8% of that is 38K people dying from respiratory diseases.

So are the numbers far from what is normally expected anyway? Ill need more time to dig into Louisiana, Mississippi etc.

If Iran and Russia said they were lying I wouldn't believe them

Zebra3

normanoffside wrote: »

Donnelly was too busy preparing his twitter video about his glorious first 100 days in charge to concentrate on anything else

https://twitter.com/DonnellyStephen/status/1313886753263149058

It's not really the time for a government minister, let alone the minister for health, to be getting all self-indulgent.

Nobody cares about anyone being 100 days in a job.

MOH

Vieira82 wrote: »

Trying to hide this is senseless when we spent the last 6 months trying to know where it is and be on top of it.

We haven't though. We've made almost no effort to trace how it's spreading. 70% of are clusters are in homes. Unless it's spontaneously arising there, it's being spread elsewhere and since there's been no serious effort to track this we don't have a clue.

We've been told we don't have the resources to track this, despite the fact this is the most valuable information in curtailing the spread.
As things opened up and numbers were low, we had a golden opportunity to discover where transmission was happening during the gradual reoopening.
Instead we stood down contact tracing centres because there wasn't enough to do.

Instead we've relied on things like keeping pubs closed because "best international evidence supports that", despite the fact that pretty much everywhere else in Europe is only closing them now as they hit somewhere around our level 4 mark.

I don't have a problem with restrictions per se. But they're an total waste of time when the government and health authorities have utterly failed on their side to take basic steps to take advantage of the relief they bring. (How many new ICU beds do we have ready or on the way since March?)

(And that's without getting into the meat packing factories, the lack of quarantine enforcement, or any other issues).

JimmyVik

Maybe they should look at the app.
It updated the other day and my phones battery has been lasting half as long since.
Now that ive uninstalled it the battery is fine again and the phone is no longer getting hot.
I think im probably not alone.

McHardcore

Not good news from the UK:
"Coronavirus killing three times more people than flu and pneumonia combined"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-deaths-uk-flu-pneumonia-covid-cases-latest-b880887.html?utm_source=reddit.com

Vieira82

MOH wrote: »

We haven't though. We've made almost no effort to trace how it's spreading. 70% of are clusters are in homes. Unless it's spontaneously arising there, it's being spread elsewhere and since there's been no serious effort to track this we don't have a clue.

We've been told we don't have the resources to track this, despite the fact this is the most valuable information in curtailing the spread.
As things opened up and numbers were low, we had a golden opportunity to discover where transmission was happening during the gradual reoopening.
Instead we stood down contact tracing centres because there wasn't enough to do.

Instead we've relied on things like keeping pubs closed because "best international evidence supports that", despite the fact that pretty much everywhere else in Europe is only closing them now as they hit somewhere around our level 4 mark.

I don't have a problem with restrictions per se. But they're an total waste of time when the government and health authorities have utterly failed on their side to take basic steps to take advantage of the relief they bring. (How many new ICU beds do we have ready or on the way since March?)

(And that's without getting into the meat packing factories, the lack of quarantine enforcement, or any other issues).

agreed with everything, my comment was in general eu cases and in comparisson with Belgium. Agreed we did eff all in IE

normanoffside

Zebra3 wrote: »

It's not really the time for a government minister, let alone the minister for health, to be getting all self-indulgent.

Nobody cares about anyone being 100 days in a job.

He says that the end that 'He's only getting started'

He'll regret that.

Refractions

JimmyVik wrote: »

Maybe they should look at the app.
It updated the other day and my phones battery has been lasting half as long since.
Now that ive uninstalled it the battery is fine again and the phone is no longer getting hot.
I think im probably not alone.

Now that you mention it my old android has been lasting longer since I binned the app.

McHardcore

McHardcore wrote: »

Not good news from the UK:
"Coronavirus killing three times more people than flu and pneumonia combined"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-deaths-uk-flu-pneumonia-covid-cases-latest-b880887.html?utm_source=reddit.com

Belgium rate very high too- we need to keep a watchful eye on other countries as we’re likely to experience similar at some point.

Captain_Crash

McHardcore wrote: »

Not good news from the UK:
"Coronavirus killing three times more people than flu and pneumonia combined"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-deaths-uk-flu-pneumonia-covid-cases-latest-b880887.html?utm_source=reddit.com

I’d take that with a grain of salt! Two sentences stand out “the virus being the underlying cause of death in three times as many deaths”
I take it they should say three times as many died with the virus not of it??

And

“Of the deaths where both influenza and pneumonia, and Covid-19 were mentioned on the death certificate, the underlying cause of death was coronavirus in 96 per cent of cases”
I find it hard to believe it’s 96%.... firstly you have to be a special kind of f**ked to end up with all three and in my view it’s prob not possible to find a distinction in a post mortem of a patient with all three of those! I’m no medic but I just don’t buy it

Andrewf20

Just getting a chance to look into the 2nd wave in Louisiana and Mississippi to see what may be giving rise to the hammering they got with deaths & 2nd waves.

Some interesting things I found were that Mississippi and Louisiana are pretty much bottom when it comes to public health, which would surely contribute to covid deaths, but to what degree, im not sure. Mississippi and Loiusiana are also the 2 poorest states in the USA for household income. https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/poorest-states-in-the-us-by-median-household-income-2019-8?r=US&IR=T#2-louisiana-14

Louisiana ranks No. 50 this year for health, replacing Mississippi as the state with the greatest health challenges, according to analysis produced by the American Health Foundation, “America's Health Rankings.” Louisiana has hovered among the bottom states for more than a decade. It was ranked last by the same report in 2008.Jan 16, 2019. https://www.thecentersquare.com/louisiana/american-health-foundation-louisiana-is-least-healthy-state-in-the-u-s/article_6364567a-19e0-11e9-a38c-3774b9d47c9a.html#:~:text=Louisiana%20ranks%20No.,the%20same%20report%20in%202008.

Elsewhere:

“The least healthy states last year were West Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi”

Doctors here saying in Louisiana diabetes, hypertension, obesity are quite high relative to the rest of the USA which contributed to the covid deaths with 70% of deaths being African Americans.: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Arh9tL44tu8.

Mississippi has a 50% rural population - this may in part explain the death profile which appears to have a very long drawn out slope meaning the virus spreads more slowly. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=260wVtyGb5Y

Ive actually been in both states. What struck me about there was the poverty in Mississippi. It felt a bit dodgy in places. Louisiana not so much but obesity in that part of the world including Texas and other southern states was very noticeable.

Richard Hillman

Stephen Kenny said he couldn't play Connolly and Idah because of the guidelines. NPHET are now interfering with our national football team.

sheepsh4gger

gifted wrote: »

Have they lost the attention of the people?

They clearly have because the plandemic unemployment payment is still too low. The bulk of people's earnings goes to pay rent and this isn't addressed.

bb1234567

Andrewf20 wrote: »

Just getting a chance to look into the 2nd wave in Louisiana and Mississippi to see what may be giving rise to the hammering they got with deaths & 2nd waves.

Some interesting things I found were that Mississippi and Louisiana are pretty much bottom when it comes to public health, which would surely contribute to covid deaths, but to what degree, im not sure. Mississippi and Loiusiana are also the 2 poorest states in the USA for household income. https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/poorest-states-in-the-us-by-median-household-income-2019-8?r=US&IR=T#2-louisiana-14

Louisiana ranks No. 50 this year for health, replacing Mississippi as the state with the greatest health challenges, according to analysis produced by the American Health Foundation, “America's Health Rankings.” Louisiana has hovered among the bottom states for more than a decade. It was ranked last by the same report in 2008.Jan 16, 2019. https://www.thecentersquare.com/louisiana/american-health-foundation-louisiana-is-least-healthy-state-in-the-u-s/article_6364567a-19e0-11e9-a38c-3774b9d47c9a.html#:~:text=Louisiana%20ranks%20No.,the%20same%20report%20in%202008.

Elsewhere:

“The least healthy states last year were West Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi”

Doctors here saying in Louisiana diabetes, hypertension, obesity are quite high relative to the rest of the USA which contributed to the covid deaths with 70% of deaths being African Americans.: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Arh9tL44tu8.

Mississippi has a 50% rural population - this may in part explain the death profile which appears to have a very long drawn out slope meaning the virus spreads more slowly. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=260wVtyGb5Y

Ive actually been in both states. What struck me about there was the poverty in Mississippi. It felt a bit dodgy in places. Louisiana not so much but obesity in that part of the world including Texas and other southern states was very noticeable.

Thanks for doing all the research! Really interesting

johnmck

McConkey the ultimate dystopian fantasist

patnor1011

Vieira82 wrote: »

No it's not, read the data again, plenty of healthy people not only dying of it but also now being long haulers of a plethora of issues including heart disease. Not my fault you're misinformed.

Define plenty. A plethora of issues you mention is currently being investigated as possible PTSD. And even those are still just rare occurrence.

patnor1011

Zebra3 wrote: »

It's not really the time for a government minister, let alone the minister for health, to be getting all self-indulgent.

Nobody cares about anyone being 100 days in a job.

Well for some ministers it is a cause of celebration. Quite a few of them did not warm that comfortable chair for so long.

karlitob

karlitob wrote: »

Well done Sherlock. Very clever. .

So clever I would’ve thought you’d have presumed that I get my vaccination each year - always.

Good boy.

Vieira82

Quick question to everyone that believes this is all a big false alarm, a big media sensationalism non-sense, a big political show both national and international. What would it take for you to actually change your mind and believe this is a real health emergency, a global tragedy unfolding in itself alone? Asking only on the health side, not on the economical and social side. What would make you change your mind that this is a serious health concern at a global level?

Captain_Crash

Vieira82 wrote: »

Quick question to everyone that believes this is all a big false alarm, a big media sensationalism non-sense, a big political show both national and international. What would it take for you to actually change your mind and believe this is a real health emergency, a global tragedy unfolding in itself alone? Asking only on the health side, not on the economical and social side. What would make you change your mind that this is a serious health concern at a global level?

I don’t believe it’s a false alarm, I believe the virus is dangerous to some and I believe we have a responsibility to act in a manner proportionate to the risk! Is it the biggest health risk ever faced by the world? Statistically it isn’t no! It won’t even be the biggest killer this year!

What I think is missing is perception! Social media has people in bubbles so I can understand how many believe this virus is out there killing everyone and anyone but in reality it’s not! 1M is not an insignificant number of people, but on the scale of things, it’s a fraction of the deaths the world will see this year and our resources can be better used to protect the world as a whole!

Basically, IMO the actions being taken are not proportionate to the risk they are trying to mitigate! Why? I’m not sure. I believe social media has a role to play but that’s another debate.

OwenM

Vieira82 wrote: »

Quick question to everyone that believes this is all a big false alarm, a big media sensationalism non-sense, a big political show both national and international. What would it take for you to actually change your mind and believe this is a real health emergency, a global tragedy unfolding in itself alone? Asking only on the health side, not on the economical and social side. What would make you change your mind that this is a serious health concern at a global level?

Excess deaths, more people dying of all causes then normal, measured here:

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#z-scores-by-country