Have NPHET lost the attention of people?

McHardcore

OwenM wrote: »

Excess deaths, more people dying of all causes then normal, measured here:

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#z-scores-by-country

Yep. Euromomo figures state that excess deaths increased by 14%.

OwenM

McHardcore wrote: »

Yep. Euromomo figures state that excess deaths increased by 14%.

Yes they did, but what is the excess for the last 12 weeks?

We had a public health emergency, we don't now, it really is that simple.

Vieira82

Captain_Crash wrote: »

I don’t believe it’s a false alarm, I believe the virus is dangerous to some and I believe we have a responsibility to act in a manner proportionate to the risk! Is it the biggest health risk ever faced by the world? Statistically it isn’t no! It won’t even be the biggest killer this year!

What I think is missing is perception! Social media has people in bubbles so I can understand how many believe this virus is out there killing everyone and anyone but in reality it’s not! 1M is not an insignificant number of people, but on the scale of things, it’s a fraction of the deaths the world will see this year and our resources can be better used to protect the world as a whole!

Basically, IMO the actions being taken are not proportionate to the risk they are trying to mitigate! Why? I’m not sure. I believe social media has a role to play but that’s another debate.

Thanks for your input, from your comments I had understood this already. My question was more related to what would you change your mind in regards to this? What would it take for you to start thinking this may be the biggest health risk we're facing currently? Thank you.

Vieira82

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40061882.html

I'm not buying his denials sadly. But again, this is based on my personal opinion and my theory of who leaked the document and with what intention such leak by the gov. would actually put the gov. in a position of power.

Captain_Crash

Vieira82 wrote: »

What would it take for you to start thinking this may be the biggest health risk we're facing currently?

If it was the biggest health risk were facing currently

Edit: If it started killing large numbers indiscriminately

funnydoggy

Vieira82 wrote: »

Thanks for your input, from your comments I had understood this already. My question was more related to what would you change your mind in regards to this? What would it take for you to start thinking this may be the biggest health risk we're facing currently? Thank you.

But it isn't the biggest health risk for the majority of the population.

Vieira82

funnydoggy wrote: »

But it isn't the biggest health risk for the majority of the population.

If but's and maybes? my question was hypothetically but thanks for your input.

irishblessing

funnydoggy wrote: »

But it isn't the biggest health risk for the majority of the population.

Maybe not from Covid directly, but if you or your family or friends find yourselves in need of a doctor or hospital bed for any other reason and the health service is overrun then you'd be in a pickle then, wouldn't you. Fact is that this is the biggest health risk for all of the population.

MOH

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Stephen Kenny said he couldn't play Connolly and Idah because of the guidelines. NPHET are now interfering with our national football team.

What?! How dare they! Everyone know footballers are a different species and thus immune to our viruses

McHardcore

OwenM wrote: »

Yes they did, but what is the excess for the last 12 weeks?

We had a public health emergency, we don't now, it really is that simple.

The virus hasnt gone away. Going both by history and the current climb in case numbers, the virus comes in waves. If we are agreed that the previous wave was a public health emergency, why wouldn't you consider the next wave to be a public health emergency?

It takes ~18 days for someone to die after getting the virus. Euromomo take 3 weeks to update their figures. If your waiting for the excess death rate to go up on Euromomo again it will much harder to act due to the exponential rate of growth in the number of infections of the virus.

normanoffside

MOH wrote: »

What?! How dare they! Everyone know footballers are a different species and thus immune to our viruses

It's because of the 2m rule that isn't used for players on the continent or in the UK
https://www.the42.ie/fai-covid-5228094-Oct2020/

Players missed out by sitting 10cm and 30cm too close to a member of a background staff.

Just blatant nit picking as both players tested negative.
Given the chances we missed and with our best 2 strikers rules out NPHET probably cost us a place at the Euros.

And by the way footballers do seem to be quite immune as I have yet to hear of one having symptoms or failing to come back with full fitness directly after 'recovering'.

Drumpot

Captain_Crash wrote: »

I don’t believe it’s a false alarm, I believe the virus is dangerous to some and I believe we have a responsibility to act in a manner proportionate to the risk! Is it the biggest health risk ever faced by the world? Statistically it isn’t no! It won’t even be the biggest killer this year!

What I think is missing is perception! Social media has people in bubbles so I can understand how many believe this virus is out there killing everyone and anyone but in reality it’s not! 1M is not an insignificant number of people, but on the scale of things, it’s a fraction of the deaths the world will see this year and our resources can be better used to protect the world as a whole!

Basically, IMO the actions being taken are not proportionate to the risk they are trying to mitigate! Why? I’m not sure. I believe social media has a role to play but that’s another debate.

There is a difference between perception and reality. Yes, Social media plays a very significant role, as does mainstream media. More then anything, I think most of us struggle to get a break from the constant barrage of information that can paint this worse or better then how it actually is. But these mediums are there spouting their overly hyperbolic news regardless of COVID, its more of a societal problem that people really lack the capacity to fact check what they are hearing/reading and even less desire to challenge it in any meaningful way.

There seems to be a significant portion of people in two camps, overly optimistic and overly pessimistic, both of which fail to see the irony when they are attacking the other for being so overly negative/positive. People really are struggling to discuss this topic objectively, basically they have a strong opinion and deride those who think differently, its no different to political forums to be honest.

In terms of how bad this virus is, your comments are very much misguided. The debate on how to react is not is simple as "it doesnt kill many and most are grand", thats an awfully simplistic way to minimise a global crisis with multiple variables to consider:

- Health care systems crashing if they are overrun which has happened in countries with better resources then us. I do not believe people understand this concept. I know of a person in hospital for another serious illness that just got COVID (they think while in hospital). They are in the massive risk category. If COVID is everywhere, a lot more people will die faster, its that simple. If we have no healthcare system, people who get other illness or are in accidents wont have access to healthcare. Below are a few things that come to mind and I am conscious that I am actually missing things:

- We haven't figured out how to cocoon the vulnerable yet. Its mentioned "cocoon the vulnerable and let everything open up", but there is no actual plan to make this happen. All data shows that when numbers rise it inevitably seeps into the vulnerable and deaths/hospitalizations increase.

- Its only been 6 months. Feels like an eternity at times, but it actually hasnt been that long and the more we understand about it, the better we can respond and amend our strategies.

- Its not just about saving our healthcare system but we can afford to be more cautious right now. Our economy and our national debt has so far not been too badly affected by this. Another few months will not make a massive difference nationally. Yes, companies and jobs will be lost, but the money will be there to help create new jobs and new business. Regardless of choices taken, some are going to be worse off then others, its a question of what we value more, business or health. People argue about the mental health end of things, well what are they doing to help themselves ? I have been to two different therapist over the last 6 months, try to get regular exercise and amend my diet. People need to do what they can do to make their own circumstances better.

- Different cultures/countries have to react differently. Quite often people will selectively pick out one country that suits whatever agenda they want to push. The reason every country is taking different approaches is because there are many factors that will determine which strategy works in a particular country. Its not simply, the best way is x, y or Z, otherwise we would have one poster child country with definitive reasons why they are right. Nobody has full control over whats happening, there is no perfect way of managing this, only a least worst strategy that protects its people and does as little damage as possible. Mistakes are being made and will be made, people need to get this idea that everything should be going smoothly out of their heads, thats a ridiculous expectation. Yes, some mistakes shouldnt happen, but nobody in our generation has had to manage this sort of crisis.

Lastly, this is a global pandemic. I really think people are struggling to get it into their heads. I think of it like depression/anxiety where those who don't suffer from it cant really empathize with those who do and struggle to understand the damage it can do to a life. I think Ireland is actually one of the better countries in the world to live in if you suffer from a job loss, financial insecurity or even health issues. In general there are supports on some level, moreso then in many countries. People mock the "welfare culture", there are those who abuse it, but there are those who need it and whom it protects.

Maybe money will become an issue and the damage being cause by mitigation strategies will force us to open up the economy more. But I don't see that being a national problem for the next 6 months anyways. At that time, we may need to review things but we have far more information with regards to treatment, vaccines, more information on potential long term effects and what hopefully the worst COVID can throw at us in a winter.

I think a more cautious approach, is more prudent, but to be frank I think alot of people just dont understand alot about whats going on and lack the ability/knowledge to reflect on this topic in a more comprehensive way beyond what they think and what suits them.

kippy

Captain_Crash wrote: »

I don’t believe it’s a false alarm, I believe the virus is dangerous to some and I believe we have a responsibility to act in a manner proportionate to the risk! Is it the biggest health risk ever faced by the world? Statistically it isn’t no! It won’t even be the biggest killer this year!

What I think is missing is perception! Social media has people in bubbles so I can understand how many believe this virus is out there killing everyone and anyone but in reality it’s not! 1M is not an insignificant number of people, but on the scale of things, it’s a fraction of the deaths the world will see this year and our resources can be better used to protect the world as a whole!

Basically, IMO the actions being taken are not proportionate to the risk they are trying to mitigate! Why? I’m not sure. I believe social media has a role to play but that’s another debate.

Your perception is the problem. Not others.
Saying it isn't even the biggest killer this year and that the deaths are a fraction of annual deaths displays a staggering lack of appreciation as to why that is the case.

Do you think without mitigation those numbers would be the same?

Captain_Crash

kippy wrote: »

Your perception is the problem. Not others.

Drunpot’s comments in literally the post before yours were right so.... “both of which fail to see the irony when they are attacking the other for being so overly negative/positive”

And to answer your question, considering no county (in Europe atleast) took the exact same action as the next, but death rates are largely the same regardless, no I don’t believe mitigation saved as many as has been trotted out! Undoubtedly it saved some, but not 1,000,000’s as some would like to believe

kippy

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Drunpot’s comments in literally the post before yours were right so.... “both of which fail to see the irony when they are attacking the other for being so overly negative/positive”

And to answer your question, considering no county (in Europe atleast) took the exact same action as the next, but death rates are largely the same regardless, no I don’t believe mitigation saved as many as has been trotted out! Undoubtedly it saved some, but not 1,000,000’s as some would like to believe

Every country. Absolutely every country has put in place extensive test and trace resources. Limited public gatherings and spend massively on PPE, advertising on handwashing, social distancing, mask wearing....
To suggest that there hasn't been extensive mitigation in Every country is disengenious.
Some have more restrictions than otheres but without the basic mitigations above only a fool would suggest the deaths wouldn't be significantly higher.

Vieira82

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Drunpot’s comments in literally the post before yours were right so.... “both of which fail to see the irony when they are attacking the other for being so overly negative/positive”

And to answer your question, considering no county (in Europe atleast) took the exact same action as the next, but death rates are largely the same regardless, no I don’t believe mitigation saved as many as has been trotted out! Undoubtedly it saved some, but not 1,000,000’s as some would like to believe

It's actually pretty funny you're saying this and I'll explain why. Govs. Docs, you name it are in a no win situation and I'll explain why.

Back in March/April when lockdowns took place I talked with a friend about this and the reality is if govs would simply ignore this and let the infection run rampant then the deaths would fall on the gov. Exactly like what's hapenning in the US and Brazil and to a point in Sweden.

If the govs. and docs. did something and actually saved lives people would not notice that and say it was all exaggerated and that's exactly where we are now.

And the funny part it's exactly like the Spanish Flu! Not the virus itself but the social behavior to it.

Just like now back then people completely devalued the second wave, there where anti-mask protests and groups and governments went ahead and followed the economic needs. Lockdowns ended up being extremely rare for the second wave and the real death toll was only known years later.

So the fact we didn't saw thousands of dead before it does not mean necessarily that the virus is not deadly, but that the measures against it have been successful until now.

That sense of security we're having now that this is not as serious as it looks is precisely the result of all of these policies. But bear in mind there has been countries where bodies pilled up the streets and even at this time. The fact many countries took the time to get ready for a second wave and took longer to be stretched to their capacities again, example of Madrid and Paris. From what I've read Madrid is about to start having another death wave as cases keep rising, hospitals are now at overcapacity again... and if that happens will be right on point the predicitions of WHO that from October deaths would start to occur again in Europe at the hundreds level...

At the moment I can't see this looking good for Ireland either as hospitals are already at capacity (I was in CUH for an emergency and can confirm this) even without a significant rise in hospitalizations by covid.

But Captain my Captain! I genuinely hope you are right.

kippy

Vieira82 wrote: »

It's actually pretty funny you're saying this and I'll explain why. Govs. Docs, you name it are in a no win situation and I'll explain why.

Back in March/April when lockdowns took place I talked with a friend about this and the reality is if govs would simply ignore this and let the infection run rampant then the deaths would fall on the gov. Exactly like what's hapenning in the US and Brazil and to a point in Sweden.

If the govs. and docs. did something and actually saved lives people would not notice that and say it was all exaggerated and that's exactly where we are now.

And the funny part it's exactly like the Spanish Flu! Not the virus itself but the social behavior to it.

Just like now back then people completely devalued the second wave, there where anti-mask protests and groups and governments went ahead and followed the economic needs. Lockdowns ended up being extremely rare for the second wave and the real death toll was only known years later.

So the fact we didn't saw thousands of dead before it does not mean necessarily that the virus is not deadly, but that the measures against it have been successful until now.

That sense of security we're having now that this is not as serious as it looks is precisely the result of all of these policies. But bear in mind there has been countries where bodies pilled up the streets and even at this time. The fact many countries took the time to get ready for a second wave and took longer to be stretched to their capacities again, example of Madrid and Paris. From what I've read Madrid is about to start having another death wave as cases keep rising, hospitals are now at overcapacity again... and if that happens will be right on point the predicitions of WHO that from October deaths would start to occur again in Europe at the hundreds level...

At the moment I can't see this looking good for Ireland either as hospitals are already at capacity (I was in CUH for an emergency and can confirm this) even without a significant rise in hospitalizations by covid.

But Captain my Captain! I genuinely hope you are right.

Agree with all of this.

I hope the Captain is right too!

Vieira82

and just a little side note:

1394 cases in Portugal today, 647 recovered, 12 deaths.

Back in the first wave we had only two days over 1000 cases one in March another in April.

This is the second day in a row with over 1000 cases nationwide and we do an average of 20k tests da day, back in March the average was 2500.

joe40

Vieira82 wrote: »

Quick question to everyone that believes this is all a big false alarm, a big media sensationalism non-sense, a big political show both national and international. What would it take for you to actually change your mind and believe this is a real health emergency, a global tragedy unfolding in itself alone? Asking only on the health side, not on the economical and social side. What would make you change your mind that this is a serious health concern at a global level?

The World health organisation, The European centre for disease control, the US centre for disease control, along with virtually every heath authority in every country in the world are saying this is a real health emergency.

How much more convincing do people need?

Captain_Crash

The Captains always right!

NIMAN

joe40 wrote: »

The World health organisation, The European centre for disease control, the US centre for disease control, along with virtually every heath authority in every country in the world are saying this is a real health emergency.

How much more convincing do people need?

But sure they are all in on the conspiracy didn't you know.:rolleyes:

MOH

normanoffside wrote: »

It's because of the 2m rule that isn't used for players on the continent or in the UK
https://www.the42.ie/fai-covid-5228094-Oct2020/

Players missed out by sitting 10cm and 30cm too close to a member of a background staff.

Just blatant nit picking as both players tested negative.
Given the chances we missed and with our best 2 strikers rules out NPHET probably cost us a place at the Euros.

And by the way footballers do seem to be quite immune as I have yet to hear of one having symptoms or failing to come back with full fitness directly after 'recovering'.

No, it's not blatant nitpicking.

The rule is the rule. Whether or not it applies in Ulan Bator or the far side of moon is irrelevant.

NPHET cost us a place at the Euros must be the saddest excuse I've ever seen in my life. We lost, just deal with it.

Vieira82

joe40 wrote: »

The World health organisation, The European centre for disease control, the US centre for disease control, along with virtually every heath authority in every country in the world are saying this is a real health emergency.

How much more convincing do people need?

Yep... we're barely into Autumn and this would not magically disappear on Dec 31st. The next 6 months will be very interesting to see.

expectationlost

only one 'NPHET' press briefing this week we'rve had less time for them to explain and be questioned, just when we needed more

Vieira82

expectationlost wrote: »

only one 'NPHET' press briefing this week we'rve had less time for them to explain and be questioned, just when we needed more

judging by the desire of some people to crucify them publically, and after being clearly to me, a victim of that political dance last weekend I would not be surprised NPHET would take the back seat have a pint and see the whole house burn...

Andrewf20

Vieira82 wrote: »

Quick question to everyone that believes this is all a big false alarm, a big media sensationalism non-sense, a big political show both national and international. What would it take for you to actually change your mind and believe this is a real health emergency, a global tragedy unfolding in itself alone? Asking only on the health side, not on the economical and social side. What would make you change your mind that this is a serious health concern at a global level?

For me it would be if death rates were to rise significantly above the norm for this time of year, particularly in Europe or 1st world countries.

Andrewf20

McHardcore wrote: »

The virus hasnt gone away. Going both by history and the current climb in case numbers, the virus comes in waves. If we are agreed that the previous wave was a public health emergency, why wouldn't you consider the next wave to be a public health emergency?

It takes ~18 days for someone to die after getting the virus. Euromomo take 3 weeks to update their figures. If your waiting for the excess death rate to go up on Euromomo again it will much harder to act due to the exponential rate of growth in the number of infections of the virus.

Because cases have been rising for months now (not just weeks) in alot of places but not deaths which are still very low or inline for whats expected at this time of the year. Big questions about the validity of pcr testing catching active viruses instead of older remnants that don't pose a threat also throws a big spanner in the works. Hence the casedemic that seems to be emerging.

Andrewf20

Just another 2 things:

We are getting very hung up on numbers but do we have any visibility for what kind of icu hospitalisations we have in a normal year ( for respiratory infections ideally)? Can't find any info on this to get a bench mark.

I posted this in another thread but got no word back. Is there any indication of exactly how much testing has been going on each day since last spring? U.K. Testing has gone up over 20 fold since spring for example.

joe40

Andrewf20 wrote: »

Just another 2 things:

We are getting very hung up on numbers but do we have any visibility for what kind of icu hospitalisations we have in a normal year ( for respiratory infections ideally)? Can't find any info on this to get a bench mark.

I posted this in another thread but got no word back. Is there any indication of exactly how much testing has been going on each day since last spring? U.K. Testing has gone up over 20 fold since spring for example.

If the people who run the HSE along with hospital doctors are getting "hung up on numbers" that good enough for me.

Andrewf20

joe40 wrote: »

If the people who run the HSE along with hospital doctors are getting "hung up on numbers" that good enough for me.

But if rates of testing have gone up 20 fold in the uk then surely that explains a surge is cases there or am I missing something? Might be same issue here. Similar to icu hospitalisation numbers. If they are trying to communicate the gravity about the situation I would prefer if they were more clear on stats in the bigger scheme of things.