Have NPHET lost the attention of people?

Ginger n Lemon

McHardcore wrote: »

The first major national lockdown brought the number of cases down to single figures. The second lockdown of Laois, Offaly and Kildare brought their numbers down aswell. It was too early to tell with Dublin but the figures also looked to be optimistic. Going by these examples, lockdowns are a strong and viable option. No one wants a lockdown. It should be one of the last options on the list. Unfortunately, without any other viable and proven option, we might not have any other choice.

So why are they in level 3 now?

McHardcore

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

So why are they in level 3 now?

Because the whole country is at level 3.

Vieira82

faceman wrote: »

I’m interested in the schools piece as I believe education should be treated as an essential service.

For contrast, the Valencia region in Spain (population 5.1m) hired ~4000 new teachers for the September term. They reduced average class sizes from 26 to 12 to allow for social distancing.

And this is the early findings on schools in Spain and covid...

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-10-07/early-study-in-spain-shows-school-reopenings-have-not-led-to-higher-coronavirus-spread.html

In Portugal we got a full tv channel offering school classes from home. They thought of this immediately in March, April and now they use it as a support to those that can't go to school at the moment.

McHardcore

Yesterdays figures.

Ginger n Lemon

McHardcore wrote: »

Because the whole country is at level 3.

Okay, so even though those counties brought down their covid figures they still go to level 3.

We have 1 hell of a system here in Ireland dont we :rolleyes:

Like bloody Sligo that has as many covid cases as tech companies signing office leases in Dublin in 2020.... level 3 for them also.

MelbourneMan

faceman wrote: »

The challenge we have is that the government is not exercising the inbetween options given there is no enforcement of even the basics such as mask wearing

Its widely and uncontestedly acknowledged that its unnecessary to do so. That vaste majority are wearing them and the benefit is accruing. Similar issue with the cross county border travel, but the visibility is higher and the cabinet felt there was a need to show the need for compliance, despite the risks of it being counter productive. Strong enforcement on the margins of mask wearing would make no substantive issue to the chain of transmission.

McHardcore

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Okay, so even though those counties brought down their covid figures they still go to level 3.

Yes, that is what happened.

karlitob

faceman wrote: »

I don’t know if I entirely agree with blame being placed on people. People will operate within the rules and structures put in place. Put those rules aren’t enforced in Ireland. Since returning to Ireland from a country that has taken things more seriously, of the 3 restaurants/bars I did visit in Ireland, 2 of them were not aligned with the social distancing measures nor was hand sanitising enforced etc. Sure the signage was up and empty tables looked socially distanced. But without the risk of an inspector calling in, what did it matter.

The bigger issue in my eyes, after enforcement, is the failure of the government to put in place an adequate contact tracing and testing regime which we have known since day 1 is essential. As I previously mentioned, a 6 day turnaround from contacting gp to getting a result in completely unacceptable. In the NPHET daily briefing, these kind of stats should also be communicated.

Why GPs are still involved in the process is beyond me.

Anecdotally people in my circles are following guidelines on social distancing and cutting contacts. Although fundamentally there is an issue with people not using hand sanitiser before entering and after leaving shops in Ireland.

But it is ‘adequate’.

If you genuinely think that an world class contact tracing system can be put in place within a few months, then you’re delusional. Especially when in those few months, an unprecendented global pandemic broke - and the people who would develop this project are obviously working on other things throughout the pandemic - not the mention the rest of the population that has to be cared for by the HSE.

Any national project - especially one of this size - needs expertise (Not just in development but also in the personnel to run it), training and Ict etx. There isn’t sufficient Number of public health doctors, there isn’t sufficient number of clinical staff to man the Call 1s - other patients have lost out so that these phones are manned (or personed depending on your world view). The number of people to contact is significant - this clearly delays the process. But instead of blaming government why not blame citizens. Have you any idea the complexity of these calls and the challenge in tracking down who needs to be contacted. Obviously there will be delays but not because of sloBut this is brand new. And to be honest - a fine job is being done.

People can mouth off that it isn’t good enough, but it’s banal, not reasonable and is holding normal people who work in these areas to higher standards than any other worker as they wouldn’t achieve anything like this.

Ginger n Lemon

McHardcore wrote: »

Yes, that is what happened.

Okay.

Damn.

And people in this thread are still surprised about non compliance.

You do well - you go to level 3. You dont do well - you go to level 3.

Lets keep NPHET. Who wanted level 5 for entire country.

:D:D

faceman

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Its widely and uncontestedly acknowledged that its unnecessary to do so.

By who and why? (Genuine question)

wrote:

That vaste majority are wearing them and the benefit is accruing. Similar issue with the cross county border travel, but the visibility is higher and the cabinet felt there was a need to show the need for compliance, despite the risks of it being counter productive. Strong enforcement on the margins of mask wearing would make no substantive issue to the chain of transmission.

I merely use masks as an example. Very few of the level 3 restrictions are enforced and to borrow a quote from one of your earlier posts, “Its mistaken to regard a single transmission in a sports club as insignificantly small in the overall view”.

If no case of transmission is insignificant then why aren’t we seeing stricter enforcement compared to other jurisdictions?

McHardcore

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Like bloody Sligo that has as many covid cases as tech companies signing office leases in Dublin in 2020.... level 3 for them also.

Unfortunately Sligo is in the top half of worse rates of infections per county.

faceman

Indulge me if you will please

karlitob wrote: »

But it is ‘adequate’.

Says who? How are we benchmarking ourselves in this regard and who are we benchmarking ourselves against?

wrote:

If you genuinely think that an world class contact tracing system can be put in place within a few months, then you’re delusional. Especially when in those few months, an unprecendented global pandemic broke - and the people who would develop this project are obviously working on other things throughout the pandemic - not the mention the rest of the population that has to be cared for by the HSE.

Any national project - especially one of this size - needs expertise (Not just in development but also in the personnel to run it), training and Ict etx. There isn’t sufficient Number of public health doctors, there isn’t sufficient number of clinical staff to man the Call 1s - other patients have lost out so that these phones are manned (or personed depending on your world view). The number of people to contact is significant - this clearly delays the process.

This all seems like fair comment. So what are we doing, what are the KPI's and what's the strategy? Surely we should be striving for world class when it comes to global pandemic? I realise I am on armchair commenter on a website with no public health experience, and perhaps there are things happening behind the scenes Im not privy too. Like everyone else, I am familiar with the failings of our health system in the past so its not unreasonable to question what level of priority we are giving and what are the roadblocks. We are c. 8 months post the first day of lockdown, what has changed in our health system since then and what have we learned?

(Im not asking you these questions btw)

wrote:

But instead of blaming government why not blame citizens. Have you any idea the complexity of these calls and the challenge in tracking down who needs to be contacted. Obviously there will be delays but not because of sloBut this is brand new. And to be honest - a fine job is being done.

Completely agree about individual responsibility. However again I ask the question, how do we know a fine job is being done? What is the benchmark and measure?

wrote:

People can mouth off that it isn’t good enough, but it’s banal, not reasonable and is holding normal people who work in these areas to higher standards than any other worker as they wouldn’t achieve anything like this.

I wouldn't consider having higher expectations when it comes to public health and handling a pandemic as unreasonable. We hold pilots to a higher standard than cabin crew, so when it comes to public health we should hold government officials and senior decision makers to account too.

Tenzor07

karlitob wrote: »

Any national project - especially one of this size - needs expertise (Not just in development but also in the personnel to run it), training and Ict etx. There isn’t sufficient Number of public health doctors, there isn’t sufficient number of clinical staff to man the Call 1s - other patients have lost out so that these phones are manned (or personed depending on your world view). The number of people to contact is significant - this clearly delays the process. But instead of blaming government why not blame citizens. Have you any idea the complexity of these calls and the challenge in tracking down who needs to be contacted. Obviously there will be delays but not because of sloBut this is brand new. And to be honest - a fine job is being done. .

Why do you need qualified Doctors and clinical health staff to be dedicated contract tracers? We saw coverage on RTE of soldiers been given mobile phones to contact trace... You can do an online course and then be a contact tracer from home... The HSE is made up of a large amount of non-medical admin staff...they can be re-assigned, given a laptop and a mobile and contact trace from home... There's a couple of 100 thousand people now without work due to Government policy so jobs could be give to these people for extra pay...

Donald Trump

Donald Trump wrote: »

Grand. I see that we've found a volunteer for preliminary clinical trials of the vaccine then?


Although from other things I've read, there seems to be a large overlap between the people shouting about a "relatively harmless virus" and those getting preemptive rants in against imagined mandatory vaccination.




It seems strange to me that the people who aren't afraid of a harmless virus appear to be afraid of a deactivated version of it.

You can safely ignore posters of the sort you quoted. Whether they genuinely believe what they say or just get something out of being contrararians that they would otherwise lack in their lives (attention, probably) they'll never be in a position to make a blind bit of difference in real terms as no one will ever actually implement or act on their dangerous nonsense.

The one downside is, they can never be proven wrong in empirical terms.

Totally worth it though.

Andrewf20

Andrewf20 wrote: »

So I found some figures for Influenza and Other Seasonal Respiratory Viruses in Ireland, 2018/2019 & 2017/18.

2018/2019:

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/influenza/seasonalinfluenza/surveillance/influenzasurveillancereports/seasonsummaries/Influenza%202018-2019%20Season_Summary.pdf

Influenza cases: 7,943
Influenza hospitalizations (critical care): 3,244 - “Age specific rates for confirmed influenza cases hospitalised and admitted to critical care during the 2018/2019 influenza season, in Ireland” as per page 17.
Influenza ICUs: 159
Influenza deaths: 97

Is there a big difference between critical care and intensive care. Not sure for Ireland but theres a big difference in the numbers (159 vs 3244) as shown above. The mater mentions that their critical care unit includes ICU and HDU, so I assume thats similar to other hospitals also?)

However a UK website implies they may be the same: "Critical care - also known as Intensive Care (ICU) – is a multi-disciplinary healthcare team looking after people with life-threatening conditions. Critical care units are areas within the hospital which are specially staffed, equipped and designed to closely monitor and treat patients with life-threatening conditions."

Hospital respiratory admissions started to rise around early Sept (page 13 graph)

2017/2018:

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/influenza/seasonalinfluenza/surveillance/influenzasurveillancereports/seasonsummaries/Influenza%202017-2018%20Annual%20Summary_Final.pdf

Influenza cases: 11,889
Influenza hospitalizations (critical care): 4,713
Influenza ICUs: 191
Influenza deaths: 255

Hospital respiratory admissions started to rise around early Sept (page 15 graph)

If ICU numbers for respiratory & influenza in 2017/18 and 2018/19 were 159 & 191 instead of the critical care figures of 3,244 & 4,713 as shown in the links, then 30 ICUs at this stage does sound concerning alright.

Note that the link below mentions around 4000 deaths of the respiratory system in the last few years.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/660231/disease-of-the-respiratory-system-deaths-ireland/

Ive been frustrated with the lack of info in the media on how this years numbers compare to previous years for respiratory deaths, ICU admittance etc. Ivor has since pulled some of the data I was looking for & its here at around 4,14,17,21 minutes. I think its a fascinating watch, and Im interested in peoples take on it. I think this info is important get a better perspective on things:

Captain_Crash

Andrewf20 wrote: »

Ive been frustrated with the lack of info in the media on how this years numbers compare to previous years for respiratory deaths, ICU admittance etc. Ivor has since pulled some of the data I was looking for its here at around 4,14,17,21 minutes. I think its a fascinating watch, and Im interested in peoples take on it. I think this info is important get a better perspective on things:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJq8MBgYJ4Q&feature=youtu.be

The fact “lockdown” had zero impact on flu deaths in the uk surprised me! I would have guessed naturally lockdown would have also reduced flu deaths (and other related illnesses). But alas it appears not! A very interesting control that was naturally in the “experiment”.

My question is are NPHET aware of this and are Ireland’s numbers showing similar comparisons? If so, was it considered? And if not, on what basis have they discarded it’s relevance?

Vieira82

Andrewf20 wrote: »

Ive been frustrated with the lack of info in the media on how this years numbers compare to previous years for respiratory deaths, ICU admittance etc. Ivor has since pulled some of the data I was looking for & its here at around 4,14,17,21 minutes. I think its a fascinating watch, and Im interested in peoples take on it. I think this info is important get a better perspective on things:

had a look at his other videos particularly his short 3 minute video on Sweden. So Sweden is doing great because the spike in deaths of 2020 will be diluted in the average deaths on a five year span and then he predicts normal deaths for the next 6 months FROM data from 2016-2017...

flawless logic...

Donald Trump

Captain_Crash wrote: »

The fact “lockdown” had zero impact on flu deaths in the uk surprised me! I would have guessed naturally lockdown would have also reduced flu deaths (and other related illnesses). But alas it appears not! A very interesting control that was naturally in the “experiment”.

My question is are NPHET aware of this and are Ireland’s numbers showing similar comparisons? If so, was it considered? And if not, on what basis have they discarded it’s relevance?

It is likely that there is a bias in the sense that people who were taking adequate precautions against corona (and thereby against regular flu) would be those who would get the flu vaccination anyway.



There might be say an average 1% overall chance of catching corona. But if you look at the conditional probabilities, then you might find that it is say 20% for those who take no precautions and 0.1% for those that take the most stringent but reasonably precautions.

karlitob

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Why do you need qualified Doctors and clinical health staff to be dedicated contract tracers? We saw coverage on RTE of soldiers been given mobile phones to contact trace... You can do an online course and then be a contact tracer from home... The HSE is made up of a large amount of non-medical admin staff...they can be re-assigned, given a laptop and a mobile and contact trace from home... There's a couple of 100 thousand people now without work due to Government policy so jobs could be give to these people for extra pay...

Public health consultants run contact tracing. It’s their clinical expertise. Remember contact tracing systems are not just for Covid but for all notifiable diseases.

We also need them for complex issues that arise throughout contact tracing. There’s not enough of them before the pandemic. There ain’t enough now.

Clinical staff do call 1s. Other people who get trained do call 2s and 3s. Clinical staff have been taken off the front line - away from patients - and put on this since Feb. There aren’t enough clinical staff before the pandemic. There ain’t enough now.

A large amount of non-clinical staff have been assigned but the trope that there’s too many ‘managers’ in the HSE is just bs. It’s an enormous organisation - the biggest in the country by far. Everyone has a more challenging job than what they did before Covid. Finance staff have a more complex job; hr staff have a more complex job, ict staff have a more complex job, managers of hospitals and services have a more complex job. Clerical staff have a more complex job.
While it’s nice to say that there’s loads of manager and admin in the HSE - there want before the pandemic. There ain’t now.

And besides - there already is a campaign to recruit into contact tracers. I think I read 500 before end of year and another 250 in q1.


The point still is that any major infrastructural process takes time to set up. No matter what. And saying that it’s easy to recruit the workers on the floor of a factory doesn’t mean that a factory can be built in a few weeks.

Captain_Crash

Donald Trump wrote: »

It is likely that there is a bias in the sense that people who were taking adequate precautions against corona (and thereby against regular flu) would be those who would get the flu vaccination anyway.



There might be say an average 1% overall chance of catching corona. But if you look at the conditional probabilities, then you might find that it is say 20% for those who take no precautions and 0.1% for those that take the most stringent but reasonably precautions.

Sorry, maybe I’m confused with your post, but how is that relevant to flu deaths seeing no change despite a lockdown being implemented? (This is UK data to stress).

This is to say there were X amount of flu deaths per month in the UK. Lockdown happened and accounting for seasonal adjustments that X number didn’t change, lockdown ended and the number remained the same! Basically one consistent trough this was that differing social conditions didn’t impact the number of flu deaths at all yet the logical reasoning of a lockdown although implemented for covid by nature should also capture flu

karlitob

Andrewf20 wrote: »

Ive been frustrated with the lack of info in the media on how this years numbers compare to previous years for respiratory deaths, ICU admittance etc. Ivor has since pulled some of the data I was looking for & its here at around 4,14,17,21 minutes. I think its a fascinating watch, and Im interested in peoples take on it. I think this info is important get a better perspective on things:

Again, I don’t think the issue with Covid is the number of deaths per se. I do think that we responded well at the start after seeing what happened in other countries and I think the effect of hand hygiene, cough etiquette and social distancing has ‘worked’. The presentation above doesn’t and can’t account for the behavioural changes that have happened as a society per se because we don’t know what it was like to not to have made those changes before Covid really came into ireland.

And besides - the data is clear (At least I think it is) from us and uk on excess deaths caused by Covid. And it also seems pretty clear on what is required to keep Covid out (New Zealand). And that if you want an effective balance in between then citizens need to behave responsibly (sweden).

The main issue with Covid is its potential - it’s potential to wreak harm due to its infectiousness. The infectiousness is the issue. It can spread quickly and we (the health service) can be quickly overwhelmed. That means cancellation of services, staff out sick (or at least out because they are positive) and patients not getting the care they deserve or need.

karlitob

Fair questions.

faceman wrote: »

Indulge me if you will please

Says who? How are we benchmarking ourselves in this regard and who are we benchmarking ourselves against?

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-testing-and-tracing-roadmap.pdf

Details of the set up of contact tracing here inc international comparisons at the time. I would say that there is no such thing as benchmarking when there is no gold standard. And that Asian countries - because of SARS and mers have had a few years Head start which can’t be underestimated.

I guess I’d put that question back to you. You (one) says it’s not adequate - on what basis?

All data is available daily to let the public know what the tracing situation is

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/integrated-information-service-testing-and-contact-tracing-dashboard-9-october-2020.pdf

faceman wrote: »

This all seems like fair comment. So what are we doing, what are the KPI's and what's the strategy? Surely we should be striving for world class when it comes to global pandemic? I realise I am on armchair commenter on a website with no public health experience, and perhaps there are things happening behind the scenes Im not privy too. Like everyone else, I am familiar with the failings of our health system in the past so its not unreasonable to question what level of priority we are giving and what are the roadblocks. We are c. 8 months post the first day of lockdown, what has changed in our health system since then and what have we learned?

(Im not asking you these questions btw)

See above for strategy and KPIs.

World class? I mean I guess so but remember that test and trace is a tool to prevent spread. Ultimately the main outcome of the tool is to *support* preventing spread but it doesn’t do it (and I know you’re not saying that). It is each persons responsibility to do that. Having an average system (I don’t think we have an average system) would be overwhelmed by poor compliance. For that matter having a world class system would be overwhelmed by poor compliance. Everyone needs to do their bit so that each part of the system works.

faceman wrote: »

Completely agree about individual responsibility. However again I ask the question, how do we know a fine job is being done? What is the benchmark and measure?



I wouldn't consider having higher expectations when it comes to public health and handling a pandemic as unreasonable. We hold pilots to a higher standard than cabin crew, so when it comes to public health we should hold government officials and senior decision makers to account too.

See above.

Pilots are held to higher standards than cabin crew.

Doctors are held to higher standards than healthcare attendants.

Politicians can be elected out.

But ‘senior decision makers’ Can’t make a national infrastructural project go any faster in a pandemic than what they would when there’s not a pandemic. Sure if they could do that they would so they could look good and go onto the next job. If it was so easy to get a high paying job in the HSE which the public thinks is so easy to do then why aren’t all the brilliant ‘senior decision makers’ beating down the door for a job. Sure if they were so good and all these projects could be implemented quickly why wouldn’t the HSE bite their hand off to bring them in.

Apple can’t develop a brand new product and launch it with no problems for such a serious issue in a few months. No one can. Ict software developers don’t have a professional body where they can be hauled up and sacked - and what would you sack them on ....not working hard enough in a pandemic. Finance people do have a professional body (accountants) - on what charge would you haul them up before their professional body? Same with HR. Same with project management people. Same with procurement. These are the people on these projects. Just normal people doing a great job.


I think we should also look to our colleagues in the uk. While the government is ****e and the population is making mad decisions about Brexit, their nhs is functioning as normal. It’s always been held up as the health service to have - and its test and trace is in the ****. Why would ours be better (it is ij my view) but why?

Tenzor07

karlitob wrote: »

And besides - there already is a campaign to recruit into contact tracers. I think I read 500 before end of year and another 250 in q1.
The point still is that any major infrastructural process takes time to set up. No matter what. And saying that it’s easy to recruit the workers on the floor of a factory doesn’t mean that a factory can be built in a few weeks.

Not good enough, we're about 8 months, 1 full national complete summer lockdown, 1 contact tracing app that took half a year to come up with, now Lockdown part deux.... When do you think this factory will be up and running? When the product it's been set up to make is obsolete? It's a national crisis and no amount of excuses can make up for the fact that we're facing economic and social shutdown because the system of tracing can't cope...How hard can it be for someone who works in customer service or knows how to use a phone to do an online course in a few days to become a tracer... any medical related issues are then escalated through the call system to a medical expert...you seem to have an insight into setting up a contract tracing system so would be delighted to hear why it's not done by now..

Donald Trump

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Sorry, maybe I’m confused with your post, but how is that relevant to flu deaths seeing no change despite a lockdown being implemented? (This is UK data to stress).

This is to say there were X amount of flu deaths per month in the UK. Lockdown happened and accounting for seasonal adjustments that X number didn’t change, lockdown ended and the number remained the same! Basically one consistent trough this was that differing social conditions didn’t impact the number of flu deaths at all yet the logical reasoning of a lockdown although implemented for covid by nature should also capture flu

So what I mean is that there were people who would abide by the lockdown and those who would not. And it is plausible that there would be a correlation between those who would obey good medical advice to get a flu jab, and those who would obey the medical advice to obey restrictions.



I'll use as an example, a hypothetical 65 year old Aunt and Uncle. They both live alone in separate houses.



This aunt is diligent and responsible and looks after herself whereas the uncle does not. Every year she gets the flu jab. Uncle does not bother.



Corona lockdown comes. Aunt stays inside and obeys all restrictions. Uncle still heads off to his buddies shed with his other mates every Friday night for poker and beers. Basically proceeds as normal.


The aunt follows the corona restrictions so, as a byproduct, she won't get flu. But even if there were no corona restrictions then she would not have caught it and died from it because she always got the flu jab. so nothing has changed for her. The corona restrictions have not changed her probability of catching and dying from flu.



The uncle and his buddies were the ones who were more susceptible to catching and dying from flu as they never got the jab. But they are still more or less as susceptible as they have not modified their behaviour much.


Of course this is a very simplistic example, but it might contribute towards some of the explanation.



(Plus, were we not more or less at the end of the flu season when corona hit very hard)

Captain_Crash

Donald Trump wrote: »

Of course this is a very simplistic example, but it might contribute towards some of the explanation.

(Plus, were we not more or less at the end of the flu season when corona hit very hard)

That’s a fair point, but I think the point I was trying to make was that there was no discernible difference observed during lockdown when logic suggests there should have been!

That example although simplistic is still valid and can account for some cases where likelihood of contracting flu is the same as always, but there would be countless examples where the opposite is true. I might spend some time this afternoon finding Ireland’s data and see if it’s similar.

I do find it fascinating that two illnesses which spread in the exact same way react different to a “lockdown”, and one of them even has a vaccine... although it’s effectiveness is dependent on getting the strain right! I’ve still managed to contract flu after having the jab

karlitob

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Not good enough, we're about 8 months, 1 full national complete summer lockdown, 1 contact tracing app that took half a year to come up with, now Lockdown part deux.... When do you think this factory will be up and running? When the product it's been set up to make is obsolete? It's a national crisis and no amount of excuses can make up for the fact that we're facing economic and social shutdown because the system of tracing can't cope...How hard can it be for someone who works in customer service or knows how to use a phone to do an online course in a few days to become a tracer... any medical related issues are then escalated through the call system to a medical expert...you seem to have an insight into setting up a contract tracing system so would be delighted to hear why it's not done by now..

Well I’ve already addressed those points - especially the ‘not good enough’ brigade and given you those reasons. Re read my posts.

And just to point out - it is done. There is (and technically always has been) an effective contact facing system in place. The question is the turnaround for ALL samples within 48 hours for all 15000 samples a day. If you think that’s simple then you’re delusional. The outliers relate to complexity - which can then clearly effect other samples.

You’re also forgetting that if you are symptomatic you just self-isolate. The volume of people who know they are positive and don’t come in for second test, or the volume of people who are a close contact and go on to be positive and didn’t self isolate in that time period (the acceptable time period as shown in the stats) is nothing short of a disgrace.

So you tell me how a contact tracing system is gonna fix that problem. The real cause of spread - infected people not following advise that’s been in for 8 months.

‘Not good enough’ I hear you cry. I agree.

MOH

karlitob wrote: »

And just to point out - it is done. There is (and technically always has been) an effective contact facing system in place. The question is the turnaround for ALL samples within 48 hours for all 15000 samples a day. If you think that’s simple then you’re delusional. The outliers relate to complexity - which can then clearly effect other samples.

The first time we actually did 15,000 tests in a day was last Thursday.
We were supposed to be able to manage 100K tests a week by the end of May.
We hit 80K in mid September, we seem to be close to 100K now, for the first time.

We had contract tracing centres being closed at the end of the lockdown when those resources could have been use to help determine where clusters were actually occurring. Besides which, you don't need clinical expertise for that aspect. It's a data gathering exercise, there's no medical aspect.

Blaming the general public doesn't absolve the government of their failures.

faceman

karlitob wrote: »

Fair questions.



https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-testing-and-tracing-roadmap.pdf

Details of the set up of contact tracing here inc international comparisons at the time. I would say that there is no such thing as benchmarking when there is no gold standard. And that Asian countries - because of SARS and mers have had a few years Head start which can’t be underestimated.

I guess I’d put that question back to you. You (one) says it’s not adequate - on what basis?


All data is available daily to let the public know what the tracing situation is

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/integrated-information-service-testing-and-contact-tracing-dashboard-9-october-2020.pdf

Thanks for sharing this, I hadn't seen it before. Its very much out of date now, does the gov have an updated version? Im sure you'll agree we cant use measures from April to measure today

Im surprised at the testing figures. I'm hearing too many anecdotal stories about delays in turning things around. As previously mentioned, my own friend had 6 days from GP contact to result. Anecdotal is anecdotal (although my friend's case I can vouch for. He's in Dublin FWIW) but regardless, these testing stats should be shared more openly.

There's definitely room for improvement. Taking the GP step out for example. We should be striving for a max of 24 hours for test results.

wrote:

See above for strategy and KPIs.

World class? I mean I guess so but remember that test and trace is a tool to prevent spread. Ultimately the main outcome of the tool is to *support* preventing spread but it doesn’t do it (and I know you’re not saying that). It is each persons responsibility to do that. Having an average system (I don’t think we have an average system) would be overwhelmed by poor compliance. For that matter having a world class system would be overwhelmed by poor compliance. Everyone needs to do their bit so that each part of the system works.

Agreed re individual responsibility.

wrote:

See above.

Pilots are held to higher standards than cabin crew.

Doctors are held to higher standards than healthcare attendants.

Politicians can be elected out.

But ‘senior decision makers’ Can’t make a national infrastructural project go any faster in a pandemic than what they would when there’s not a pandemic. Sure if they could do that they would so they could look good and go onto the next job. If it was so easy to get a high paying job in the HSE which the public thinks is so easy to do then why aren’t all the brilliant ‘senior decision makers’ beating down the door for a job. Sure if they were so good and all these projects could be implemented quickly why wouldn’t the HSE bite their hand off to bring them in.

Apple can’t develop a brand new product and launch it with no problems for such a serious issue in a few months. No one can. Ict software developers don’t have a professional body where they can be hauled up and sacked - and what would you sack them on ....not working hard enough in a pandemic. Finance people do have a professional body (accountants) - on what charge would you haul them up before their professional body? Same with HR. Same with project management people. Same with procurement. These are the people on these projects. Just normal people doing a great job.


I think we should also look to our colleagues in the uk. While the government is ****e and the population is making mad decisions about Brexit, their nhs is functioning as normal. It’s always been held up as the health service to have - and its test and trace is in the ****. Why would ours be better (it is ij my view) but why?

I get what you're saying and my only experience with public work is contracts I'm brought in for and what I read in the papers. I do have a wealth of experience from the private sector though and through my lens things move much slower in the public sector. I dont think anyone is claiming its easy to do, however senior people and TDs are in those roles willingly and for a reason.

Without revealing the bodies and companies in question. A friend of mine I worked with, a senior decision maker in my company, got a job with what I'll call a state regulatory body. I remember the day he told me he was already seeking a new job elsewhere. A crisis arisen for the sector overnight on a Thursday. He tried to rally people together for a meeting first thing Monday morning. His boss told him its grand to let it wait till Monday. Given the issue it was quite serious and needed urgent attention. There was no sense of urgency given.

I realise these are just anecdotal stories and perhaps even one offs. However they sour the taste for us, particular in the midst of a crisis like this.

Anyway, good response on your part, thanks for sharing the links.

faceman

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Not good enough, we're about 8 months, 1 full national complete summer lockdown, 1 contact tracing app that took half a year to come up with, now Lockdown part deux.... When do you think this factory will be up and running? When the product it's been set up to make is obsolete? It's a national crisis and no amount of excuses can make up for the fact that we're facing economic and social shutdown because the system of tracing can't cope...How hard can it be for someone who works in customer service or knows how to use a phone to do an online course in a few days to become a tracer... any medical related issues are then escalated through the call system to a medical expert...you seem to have an insight into setting up a contract tracing system so would be delighted to hear why it's not done by now..

Just on the contact tracing app, the one we use in Ireland is considered one of the best globally. Some US states are now using the same technology.

As slow as it may have seemed, development went way beyond just creating an app. There are hardware needs and privacy considerations.

Spain, who had one of the most proactive approaches to the pandemic IMO, rolled out their app much later than us. I often wonder if they had it by end of June would things be different now.

I will beat the government up on lots of things, but not the app.

karlitob

MOH wrote: »

The first time we actually did 15,000 tests in a day was last Thursday.
We were supposed to be able to manage 100K tests a week by the end of May.
We hit 80K in mid September, we seem to be close to 100K now, for the first time.

We had contract tracing centres being closed at the end of the lockdown when those resources could have been use to help determine where clusters were actually occurring. Besides which, you don't need clinical expertise for that aspect. It's a data gathering exercise, there's no medical aspect.

Blaming the general public doesn't absolve the government of their failures.

No - Tony Holohon said we should. He never actually asked the HSE whether it was possible or not. This is public knowledge - letters sent by HSE ceo to CMO are public.

So / I’m back to my point of what people want versus what is realistically achievable. And - in my view - the system is adequate considering the current landscape and the pressures on it.