Have NPHET lost the attention of people?

meeeeh

Dempo1 wrote: »

Fair points but to be honest, the only time I've seen any compliance and the reduction in cases was evident was the main lockdown. I do think it went on too long but it's hard to argue it did not make a difference.

It made huge difference however there is no guarantee people will stick to restrictions enough second time. Anecdotal evidence from the rest of Europe is similar. It's a lot harder to get people to do what you want them to do.

is_that_so

Vieira82 wrote: »

Is this the third time NPHET has advised level 5? TBH at this time, as a question of principle if I was anyone on that team I would say to simply resign in block and declare, we take no further responsibility in this.

It's the second time. There have been slightly different interpretations over the months but mostly it's been one voice. Resigning would be pretty stupid as the MoH could dissolve it tomorrow.

Happydays2020

is_that_so wrote: »

There is no such thing as a short lockdown. If we go to Level 5 that will be 6 weeks+, then we'll have another 3 weeks at least to get through Level 4 back to where we are now. That's January. Level 3 a month ago is not where we are now and if Level 5 didn't work we'd be right back to this uncertainty you're talking about.

My view is that NPHET is now part of the problem and is a structure that is no longer fit for purpose. This is now way beyond a public health crisis and structures need to change to reflect this. A committee of 39 with sub committees feeding in was ok when the first emergency hit but is not ideal for the next 12 - 18 months.

There are also opportunities here for the health service more generally as we have an open cheque book combined with suspension of normal state aid rules.

Vieira82

Dempo1 wrote: »

Fair points but to be honest, the only time I've seen any compliance and the reduction in cases was evident was the main lockdown. I do think it went on too long but it's hard to argue it did not make a difference.

Yes there is the worry of how long a new one would take but my feeling is, we'll be stuck in a perpetual level 3 indefinitely or Level 4 if a new and serious approach is not taken and yes, I believe it may take a short a strict complete lockdown but this time absolutely no ceasing of any Hospital activity or services

Thing is, there's no way to enforce any lockdown. I live in the countryside and here was pretty much business as usual for most during first lockdown. Neighbor had all his family and friends over multiple times despite seeing in the cities people following it.t. People are tired indeed the pandemic, socially is over and governments failed irrevocably to provide a clear message and clear directives.

I mean, we all where told to keep distance, masks and everything else, then we hear of golf gate or the many many parties and gatherings without one single gardai in sight dispersing the crowds.

This is an endemic problem of the Irish state, there isn't a police force with enough authority or numbers to actually police and the citizens don't trust the authorities enough (given the so many scandals that the authorities have been through). The government knows this and they know they have no way to enforce anything besides a sweet emotional message from them to drive the public compliance.

If that same government does golfgate and in a few months in power has so many scandals, this all after an election where literally the parties in power took a beating is a recipe for the government simply having no power to enforce anything.

Their only solution is subversively going around like a headless chicken blaming everything else but themselves, "it's NPHETs fault" "it's the publics fault for not following guidelines"

And sadly there's people that genuinely believes the political theater of the last few weeks.

So NPHET has no other choice but to stand by it's recommendation, if they don't do so and if we get to a point that completely overwhelms Hospitals the government will then point the finger at NPHET.

So just wait and see the gov. will start saying "ah well level 3 (by this time is level 3.9 anyway) is not working as public is not complying"

I'm almost sure they will never announce a level 5 or even a 4 because they know very well they have no pratical authority to do so...

Dempo1

is_that_so wrote: »

There is no such thing as a short lockdown. If we go to Level 5 that will be 6 weeks+, then we'll have another 3 weeks at least to get through Level 4 back to where we are now. That's January. Level 3 a month ago is not where we are now and if Level 5 didn't work we'd be right back to this uncertainty you're talking about.

So we continue with the current charade?

I get get a short lock down has not been tried but what other options are there? Perpetual level 3 and a bit here and a bit there, Damage is current and ongoing unless I'm missing something?

Dempo1

Vieira82 wrote: »

Thing is, there's no way to enforce any lockdown. I live in the countryside and here was pretty much business as usual for most during first lockdown. Neighbor had all his family and friends over multiple times despite seeing in the cities people following it.t. People are tired indeed the pandemic, socially is over and governments failed irrevocably to provide a clear message and clear directives.

I mean, we all where told to keep distance, masks and everything else, then we hear of golf gate or the many many parties and gatherings without one single gardai in sight dispersing the crowds.

This is an endemic problem of the Irish state, there isn't a police force with enough authority or numbers to actually police and the citizens don't trust the authorities enough (given the so many scandals that the authorities have been through). The government knows this and they know they have no way to enforce anything besides a sweet emotional message from them to drive the public compliance.

If that same government does golfgate and in a few months in power has so many scandals, this all after an election where literally the parties in power took a beating is a recipe for the government simply having no power to enforce anything.

Their only solution is subversively going around like a headless chicken blaming everything else but themselves, "it's NPHETs fault" "it's the publics fault for not following guidelines"

And sadly there's people that genuinely believes the political theater of the last few weeks.

So NPHET has no other choice but to stand by it's recommendation, if they don't do so and if we get to a point that completely overwhelms Hospitals the government will then point the finger at NPHET.

So just wait and see the gov. will start saying "ah well level 3 (by this time is level 3.9 anyway) is not working as public is not complying"

I'm almost sure they will never announce a level 5 or even a 4 because they know very well they have no pratical authority to do so...

I'm in the Midlands and agree completely with your observations.

I just don't know at this stage but we can't continue on the current course.

is_that_so

Dempo1 wrote: »

So we continue with the current charade?

I get get a short lock down has not been tried but what other options are there? Perpetual level 3 and a bit here and a bit there, Damage is current and ongoing unless I'm missing something?

I think we need to let this "charade" run out its time, another week or so, but yes we do need to look at alternatives. The problem is not the short lockdown proposal, NPHET respond to data and the assumption that they will agree to an absolutely defined period is just not credible. If we're going into a form of Level 5, IMO that's till the end of the year.

Dempo1

is_that_so wrote: »

I think we need to let this "charade" run out its time, another week or so, but yes we do need to look at alternatives. The problem is not the short lockdown proposal, NPHET respond to data and the assumption that they will agree to an absolutely defined period is just not credible. If we're going into a form of Level 5, IMO that's till the end of the year.

Fair enough, it's just a mess. I'm watching Andrew Marr show, and we think is confusing here, the UK all over the place. Time for weetabix...

Happydays2020

Dempo1 wrote: »

Fair enough, it's just a mess. I'm watching Andrew Marr show, and we think is confusing here, the UK all over the place. Time for weetabix...

The U.K. is a mixed bag. Politically all over the place but I expect on the science/research side they are reasonably strong.

PommieBast

Happydays2020 wrote: »

The U.K. is a mixed bag. Politically all over the place but I expect on the science/research side they are reasonably strong.

I've lost track of how many experts (including scientists) have resigned from government advisory positions.

Happydays2020

PommieBast wrote: »

I've lost track of how many experts (including scientists) have resigned from government advisory positions.

Apologies. I meant more so in respect to R&D, the science community, research, treatments etc. All that happens (at the moment) in spite of their Government.

KerryConnor

Not sure why level 5 is the trigger for teaching unions to close as surely that would make schools safer?
I teach in primary and think schools should stay open as many children really suffered during the lockdown.
However surely we need more and mass testing to make schools and thus the community safe from spread in schools? They have done an additional 6800 tests of close contacts in schools to date. This is a tiny number.
There are many schools with multiple cases and no close contacts have been identified? Might some of these schools have 20 or 50+ asymptomatic cases ready to infect those they live with? We will never know unless they start testing widely.
Keep schools safe by mass testing and closing individual schools where necessary.

karlitob

KerryConnor wrote: »

Not sure why level 5 is the trigger for teaching unions to close as surely that would make schools safer?
I teach in primary and think schools should stay open as many children really suffered during the lockdown.
However surely we need more and mass testing to make schools and thus the community safe from spread in schools? They have done an additional 6800 tests of close contacts in schools to date. This is a tiny number.
There are many schools with multiple cases and no close contacts have been identified? Might some of these schools have 20 or 50+ asymptomatic cases ready to infect those they live with? We will never know unless they start testing widely.
Keep schools safe by mass testing and closing individual schools where necessary.

There is mass testing - over a 100000 this week.

Testing is a tool. Preferential selections misses the point and takes resources from those who need it most - ie those who fit the criteria for testing. That’s why the meat factories testing was a bad idea and why it was dropped as quick as they could. Particularly when everyone knew the reasons for transmission - which is the point of test:trace - to halt transmission, not to give a ok to continue work.
Remember there is no negative test - only not detected.


As for teachers unions ......

Happydays2020

They have lost the Government anyway

https://twitter.com/shanebeattynews/status/1317769127755452416?s=21

Dempo1

So we have finely have a government admission level 3 hasn't worked, Simon Harris on the week in politics. Minimum level 4 nationwide

karlitob

Dempo1 wrote: »

So we have finely have a government admission level 3 hasn't worked, Simon Harris on the week in politics. Minimum level 4 nationwide

Level 3 doesn’t do anything. It’s peoples compliance with level 3 is the problem. We can’t just have full lockout and fully open. There is nuance in between and people need to be responsible.


I’ve just been in a park and I actually can’t believe how many people - couples and their kids, meeting their friends and their kids for coffee - all within 2 metres, all sitting on the same bench. In a park of 100 people, I saw a handful of older people wearing masks - and about 50 people close to each other, obviously meeting up with no masks and no social distance.

I am a bit surprised I have to say.

is_that_so

karlitob wrote: »

Level 3 doesn’t do anything. It’s peoples compliance with level 3 is the problem. We can’t just have full lockout and fully open. There is nuance in between and people need to be responsible.


I’ve just been in a park and I actually can’t believe how many people - couples and their kids, meeting their friends and their kids for coffee - all within 2 metres, all sitting on the same bench. In a park of 100 people, I saw a handful of older people wearing masks - and about 50 people close to each other, obviously meeting up with no masks.

I am a bit surprised I have to say.

Masks are not required outside under regulations, much as you seem to wish they were.

Dempo1

is_that_so wrote: »

Masks are not required outside under regulations, much as you seem to wish they were.

One would wish common sense might have prevailed

is_that_so

Dempo1 wrote: »

One would wish common sense might have prevailed

That also includes people not making up rules to suit themselves.

Happydays2020

karlitob wrote: »

Level 3 doesn’t do anything. It’s peoples compliance with level 3 is the problem. We can’t just have full lockout and fully open. There is nuance in between and people need to be responsible.


I’ve just been in a park and I actually can’t believe how many people - couples and their kids, meeting their friends and their kids for coffee - all within 2 metres, all sitting on the same bench. In a park of 100 people, I saw a handful of older people wearing masks - and about 50 people close to each other, obviously meeting up with no masks and no social distance.

I am a bit surprised I have to say.

Yes. Which has shown the mess that NPHET have been making for the last few weeks. Level 3 restrictions were working until they lost the run of themselves. They have lost the people.

Infini

Happydays2020 wrote: »

They have lost the Government anyway

https://twitter.com/shanebeattynews/status/1317769127755452416?s=21

"Dangerously Political"? So because shíts hitting the fan it's their fault because politicians want a scapegoat? I swear the stupidity can be noxious at times. This isn't just happening here it's happening in other places across Europe as well.

Lockdown's arent ideal but there's few other options right now because repeatedly people are being told "limit your contacts" and what do idiots do? Go drinking in groups, have a massive gathering after a GAA match etc. and then there's moaning about another lockdown when numbers predictably surge upwards.

Seriously this thing spreads in groups and if the system crashes because of too many people become infected and we get a rush on hospitals then we see at worse a repeat of what happened in italy here. We honestly don't want to be dealing with that after it happens.

If there's one small consolation though at least we might not see a double whammy of the flu + covid because the measures against covid seem to be essentially telling the flu to fúck off entirely for a change.

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Yes. Which has shown the mess that NPHET have been making for the last few weeks. Level 3 restrictions were working until they lost the run of themselves. They have lost the people.

Number's only stablilised they didn't drop and now they're starting to spike upwards again. Level 3 bought time at best but it's not doing what we really needed it to do and that was bring down the numbers. Little point in blaming NPHET for that.

Happydays2020

Infini wrote: »

"Dangerously Political"? So because shíts hitting the fan it's their fault because politicians want a scapegoat? I swear the stupidity can be noxious at times. This isn't just happening here it's happening in other places across Europe as well.

Lockdown's arent ideal but there's few other options right now because repeatedly people are being told "limit your contacts" and what do idiots do? Go drinking in groups, have a massive gathering after a GAA match etc. and then there's moaning about another lockdown when numbers predictably surge upwards.

Seriously this thing spreads in groups and if the system crashes because of too many people become infected and we get a rush on hospitals then we see at worse a repeat of what happened in italy here. We honestly don't want to be dealing with that after it happens.

If there's one small consolation though at least we might not see a double whammy of the flu + covid because the measures against covid seem to be essentially telling the flu to fúck off entirely for a change.



Number's only stablilised they didn't drop and now they're starting to spike upwards again. Level 3 bought time at best but it's not doing what we really needed it to do and that was bring down the numbers. Little point in blaming NPHET for that.

Who are the people responsible for tracing? They sit on NPHET.

Who is responsible for acute hospital capacity? They sit on NPHET.

Who did nothing on these during the summer and wagged their fingers at the citizens? They sit on NPHET.

Infini

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Who are the people responsible for tracing? They sit on NPHET.

Who is responsible for acute hospital capacity? They sit on NPHET.

Who did nothing on these during the summer and wagged their fingers at the citizens? They sit on NPHET.

So you blame NPHET but give no explanation or reason just "it's their fault because i said so?"

Happydays2020

Infini wrote: »

So you blame NPHET but give no explanation or reason just "it's their fault because i said so?"

I don t think a 39 member committee (which has questionable expertise and independence) is fit for purpose in what is the biggest crisis in 80 years. I would rather a permanent structure which draws on pooled expertise from the ECDC, and one which is not driven by ego and political manoeuvring.

NPHET members have not delivered on their operational responsibilities so how can we take their advice seriously.

Dempo1

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Yes. Which has shown the mess that NPHET have been making for the last few weeks. Level 3 restrictions were working until they lost the run of themselves. They have lost the people.

You do realise government was the primary body behind this levels nonsense? Just to remind you again, NPHET Advise, not implement

xhomelezz

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Yes. Which has shown the mess that NPHET have been making for the last few weeks. Level 3 restrictions were working until they lost the run of themselves. They have lost the people.

Just how is lvl 3 working? I don't see any evidence to support that.

xhomelezz

is_that_so wrote: »

Masks are not required outside under regulations, much as you seem to wish they were.

Well if you meeting with group of friends outside and don't follow social distancing, I think wearing a mask would be sensible thing to do.

karlitob

is_that_so wrote: »

Masks are not required outside under regulations, much as you seem to wish they were.

Thanks for your insightful response. I know masks aren’t advised outside.

But people like you seem to think that these restrictions are government derived instructed given from on high by some form of autocratic institutions. And then get on your high horse about whether you’ll accept some form of these restrictions or not depending on what your view of your rights and liberty.

My point - if you bothered to have any sort of reasonable insight into this is that
- the infection spreads by human behaviour
- it can only be stopped by human behaviour (government advised or not)
- everyone has a responsibility to follow advice....not only to themselves but to others.
- if they don’t, there’s no much I can do or the government. But don’t be surprised when government does put in place a restrictive regime to protect the citizens and resources of the state.
- I didn’t say that I think people should wear them.
- I said I was surprised that people were not wearing them when they were within 2 metres of other people from another household.
- I was surprised that people were meeting others from other households considering that we’re in level 4 and likely to go into 5. No wonder people don’t think the restrictions don’t work.
- I was surprised so many people where in such close proximity. The viruses doesn’t care about these levels.
- the only way to stop a virus is to adhere to droplet precautions. How that’s done is the challenge but to see people unnecessarily not adhering to droplet precautions in the middle of a worsening pandemic is a surprise.

- so I’ll repeat. I’m surprised.

Happydays2020

Dempo1 wrote: »

You do realise government was the primary body behind this levels nonsense? Just to remind you again, NPHET Advise, not implement

You have highlighted part of the problem there. NPHET members have operational responsibilities so they are not just advisors. Government makes decisions. NPHET members have responsibility for implementation. The Governance is all over the place. And NPHET have become politicised and very close to the media.

Happydays2020

xhomelezz wrote: »

Just how is lvl 3 working? I don't see any evidence to support that.

the growth in Dublin numbers stabilised significantly from high growth. It was effective to a degree but I think the problems are as much to do with enforcement and the lack of buy-in from many citizens. If we don't get this right, then what will level 4 or 5 achieve? other than more on the virtual dole queues.

We need to reset our Governance structures and messaging as we will have to live with this for the next 12 - 18 months at least.