Have NPHET lost the attention of people?

Drumpot

Deleted User wrote: »

Except it's not "comforts". It's our lives.

This is everybody’s lives. Not just yours or mine. Or people who want to go to the pub or holidays. Or people who are struggling financially or health wise. This is affecting everybody and is no different to any other crisis. Whether it be natural disaster or financial crisis. There are people who are badly affected more then others. There are more vulnerable people then others.

Most people lack the capacity to see and judge what’s going on outside of how it affects them and how they feel about it. They then use this as some sort of defence as if it’s relevant to the topic, when it’s not. “You obviously don’t know how I feel” or “if this was affecting you bad you would feel different”.

Drumpot

Drumpot wrote: »

This is everybody’s lives. Not just yours or mine. Or people who want to go to the pub or holidays. Or people who are struggling financially or health wise. This is affecting everybody and is no different to any other crisis. Whether it be natural disaster or financial crisis. There are people who are badly affected more then others. There are more vulnerable people then others.

Most people lack the capacity to see and judge what’s going on outside of how it affects them and how they feel about it. They then use this as some sort of defence as if it’s relevant to the topic, when it’s not. “You obviously don’t know how I feel” or “if this was affecting you bad you would feel different”.

Yes. So it's not just "comforts".

Thats me

agoodpunt wrote: »

The big problem was the leaking by npet to embarrass the govt

The biggest problem is the fact that publishing information which shoud be public is considered as a problem.

NPHET was right publishing information because we have right to know it. If the truth making govt uncomfortable then something wron with govt.

8k71ps

Drumpot wrote: »

Look at the amount of whinging in there forums. People are finding all sorts of excuses and reasons why the biggest problems are the authorise , NEPHET, level 5 and something else. No sense of personal responsibility, no self reflection on their own selfish motives for believing a specific narrative, it’s all about focusing on what they want and finding any data that props up this delusion. This usually involves attacking individuals (not what they say) and only acknowledging info that supports what they want to believe.

Many wouldn’t accept this disciplined approach that they have in asian counties. I think culturally we really aren’t very disciplined and prefer to think it’s the Asians affinity for authoritarian rule that excuses our inability to get our population to be more responsible. There is a reason why so many keep looking at Sweden as opposed to countries who have been better at managing and suppressing the virus. They just want things to open up with as few restrictions possible and will follow whatever story supports their desires. Western countries want their comforts and will come up with all sorts of excuses (economic, social, mental health) that don’t address the reasons why we are having to take certain lockdown approaches.

I really do despair at some of the really shallow and ignorant sentiments in these COVID threads. This is a crisis, mistakes will be made and sometimes wrong decisions will be made. How much of a difference is level 5 making in comparison to what level 3 might of down? I don’t f**king know, but some people talk as if it’s definitively proven that level 3 would of been fine. The problem with the world is that the stupid are cock sure and the intelligent are so full of doubt.

I don't think it's a lack of discipline from the great mass of people or anything of the sort that's triggering these cockups. For the most part the polling suggests that more people want stricter restrictions than fewer, though last I checked the majority find the current measures appropriate (as they fail I doubt the percentage of people who think they're far too extreme will increase much).

I think for the most part it is government incompetency and the people who support this incompetency (owners of larger businesses, bankers, landlords etc) that are causing this cataclysmic denial of reality in the heart of government. As in East Asia a limited return to normality is possible, but only with extraordinary unity of purpose and administrative capacity, and I think aul meehaul is hardly able of steering the state even under the best circumstances.

TLDR; instead of thinking we have the government for it but not the people, we have the people for it but not the government.

Happydays2020

Thats me wrote: »

The biggest problem is the fact that publishing information which shoud be public is considered as a problem.

NPHET was right publishing information because we have right to know it. If the truth making govt uncomfortable then something wron with govt.

There are two aspects to this - what they do and how they do it. The latter has consistently undermined the Government.

Drumpot

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes. So it's not just "comforts".

You are only looking at the comforts angle from a certain context that I wasn’t saying.

Sweden have handled the crisis a way that was more about opening up. People like that because it’s an attractive , less restrictive way of approaching things. Asian countries have balanced approach that have allowed them to open up but with the right measures in place to allow it. If people were really interested in us doing things right they would be looking at Asia, not Sweden. This is more down to comforts and convenience, then what is more prudent.

People hide behind economic and mental health “concerns” when making cases for certain restrictions being amended.

Drumpot

8k71ps wrote: »

I don't think it's a lack of discipline from the great mass of people or anything of the sort that's triggering these cockups. For the most part the polling suggests that more people want stricter restrictions than fewer, though last I checked the majority find the current measures appropriate (as they fail I doubt the percentage of people who think they're far too extreme will increase much).

I think for the most part it is government incompetency and the people who support this incompetency (owners of larger businesses, bankers, landlords etc) that are causing this cataclysmic denial of reality in the heart of government. As in East Asia a limited return to normality is possible, but only with extraordinary unity of purpose and administrative capacity, and I think aul meehaul is hardly able of steering the state even under the best circumstances.

TLDR; instead of thinking we have the government for it but not the people, we have the people for it but not the government.

That’s a good way of looking at it. But don’t the people choose the government? Do you not think a government reflects the people it governs and the people who empower it ?

This is where I think a disparity of responsibility happens all the time, including at elections. When a government fails, people act as if the government has nothing to do with the people. If anything, one of the biggest issues with democratically elected governments (certainly more recently) is how quickly they will turn to populist agendas to appease the population.

bladespin

Thats me wrote: »

The biggest problem is the fact that publishing information which shoud be public is considered as a problem.

NPHET was right publishing information because we have right to know it. If the truth making govt uncomfortable then something wron with govt.

I think the structure was always going to lead to this, it was set up by the former govt in a typically 'show biz' way, all great, very public etc etc.

NPHET's role is (and always was) advisory, they don't make policy and contrary to what some believe I don't think they've tried.

BUT there was always going to come a point where the govt decided not to take that advice (rightly so they're there to govern more than just the health service etc) and when that came and it went wrong politics dictates there must be a 'bad guy' in all of this, and we know who pulls the strings.

If they had been kept behind closed doors the general public would be no wiser but it was open so sides are now being taken and advice questioned.

It's a no-win situation for them really.

Thats me

Happydays2020 wrote: »

There are two aspects to this - what they do and how they do it. The latter has consistently undermined the Government.

Something wrong with Government if it can be consistently undermined by the fact of information made suddenly go public.

Peter Flynt

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

It's mentioned here:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/health-experts-favour-tighter-covid-restrictions-the-politicians-less-1.4415096?mode=amp

That article is an interesting read, highlights the completely ridiculous situation of the government now basically being at war with the advisory body they setup.

Senior Civil Servants in Ireland (like Watt & Fraser) are clueless and as thick as the politicians.

Parasites is the best description for them.

Thats me

bladespin wrote: »

NPHET's role is (and always was) advisory, they don't make policy and contrary to what some believe I don't think they've tried.

They are advisory paid by public money. I can imagine a situation when they producing advise to govt telling "Country should go L5 ASAP!", but govt do not want to consider their advise - may be they not comfortable with L5 or it is just Friday evening, so NPHET goes public because people have right to know. Was not it this case?

ElektroToad

Am I correct in my understanding that to date, NPHET have never published the underlying data on which they are basing their advice?

One would hope they would share it with Cabinet during their private briefings at the very least, but surely this information should be released to the wider domain for peer review etc.. Especially given the the fact that their advice is literally life (and livelihoods!) and death...

Drumpot

Thats me wrote: »

They are advisory paid by public money. I can imagine a situation when they producing advise to govt telling "Country should go L5 ASAP!", but govt do not want to consider their advise - may be they not comfortable with L5 or it is just Friday evening, so NPHET goes public because people have right to know. Was not it this case?

I thought it was a government leak? We all know for a fact that political parties will leak stuff to suit their own agenda as they do it all the time. Have NEPHET looked like a body that has done this over the last 7 months? It’s not that it’s not possible that somebody in NEPHET leaked it, more we know governments have form leaking crap for their own ends and we just don’t know for sure re NEPHET.

Honestly, I don’t know, but is there definitive evidence either way?

bladespin

Thats me wrote: »

They are advisory paid by public money. I can imagine a situation when they producing advise to govt telling "Country should go L5 ASAP!", but govt do not want to consider their advise - may be they not comfortable with L5 or it is just Friday evening, so NPHET goes public because people have right to know. Was not it this case?

As far as I've read the leak came from the other side, that said NPHET have a public advisory role as well so they could have chose to officially release it to the press but didn't.

Captain_Crash

Thats me wrote: »

Something wrong with Government if it can be consistently undermined by the fact of information made suddenly go public.

I think the issue people have is that NPHET choose which information to make public, and it’s only information that suits their viewpoint! IMO it’s a deliberate attempt to influence government policy.

A Times article linked in the previous page of this thread mentions that government don’t believe NPHET are proving them all the information they have with regards to the decisions they are advising be made!

That puts government into a very difficult position! The media crucified them for going against advice once already.... a decision which turns out to probably have been the right decision! And they were crucified because NPHET leaked advice and only gave doomsday predictions suiting the advice the had leaked! Predictions which were inaccurate!

Captain_Crash

ElektroToad wrote: »

Am I correct in my understanding that to date, NPHET have never published the underlying data on which they are basing their advice?

One would hope they would share it with Cabinet during their private briefings at the very least, but surely this information should be released to the wider domain for peer review etc.. Especially given the the fact that their advice is literally life (and livelihoods!) and death...

Yes it’s correct and no cabinet haven't been furnished with it!

The maths has been reverse calculated and it’s believed the data they are using is based on the imperial collage model, which was widely discarded due to its known inaccuracies

Bass Reeves

Captain_Crash wrote: »

I think the issue people have is that NPHET choose which information to make public, and it’s only information that suits their viewpoint! IMO it’s a deliberate attempt to influence government policy.

A Times article linked in the previous page of this thread mentions that government don’t believe NPHET are proving them all the information they have with regards to the decisions they are advising be made!

That puts government into a very difficult position! The media crucified them for going against advice once already.... a decision which turns out to probably have been the right decision! And they were crucified because NPHET leaked advice and only gave doomsday predictions suiting the advice the had leaked! Predictions which were inaccurate!

It probably a bit more complicated than that. Government list confidence in NPHET during September/October. We went from a situation where everything was ok to We need L3 and that will be grand to overnight we need L5 at an emergency meeting on a Sunday after NPHET had only met 3-4 days previous.

Government's issues is now it cannot trust NPHET,. As you say it's afraid NPHET is not giving it all the information it requires or is not taking all the information it has into account. If there is target retesting after 5 days effecting figures Government needs to know that, it dose not need Tony Houlihan spinning on a Friday evening.

As RTE has become NPHET unquestioning propaganda machine. NPHET releases all the information for the main 6pm news bulletin and no detail is ever questioned. There cock up at the retirement going away of a colleague was a case of do as NPHET says not as we do.

The predictiment now for government is with a projected reopening of some sectors in two weeks it can not give information regarding this as it lad lost confidence in NPHET's information

nc6000

agoodpunt wrote: »

should have stayed L3 so we could have an effective L5 if needed after xmas, knee jerk and now hindsight here.

Restrictions will have to be relaxed for a period around Christmas or people will just ignore them. If pubs and restaurants are not allowed to reopen then I think a lot of them never will.

It's likely we will have to have a third lockdown in January or February as cases will be on the rise after Christmas and it will be another few months before any vaccine rollout starts.

kippy

nc6000 wrote: »

Restrictions will have to be relaxed for a period around Christmas or people will just ignore them. If pubs and restaurants are not allowed to reopen then I think a lot of them never will.

It's likely we will have to have a third lockdown in January or February as cases will be on the rise after Christmas and it will be another few months before any vaccine rollout starts.

This is pretty much all exactly what will happen unless the majority continue to adhere to the restrictions that are in place over Xmas/December/Jan.
Which will essentiall boil down to avoiding large groups, physical distancing, hand washing and the wearing of masks.
Lockdown also means different things to different people. The term really should be increased restrictions.

The virus is not responding to the restrictions, it is responding to people's adherence of them.

Melanchthon

kippy wrote: »

This is pretty much all exactly what will happen unless the majority continue to adhere to the restrictions that are in place over Xmas/December/Jan.
Which will essentiall boil down to avoiding large groups, physical distancing, hand washing and the wearing of masks.
Lockdown also means different things to different people. The term really should be increased restrictions.

The virus is not responding to the restrictions, it is responding to people's adherence of them.

But is a lockdown in late January/Febuary that bad? its a sh-tty time of year anyway and dead enough for retail and socializing. If its 5 days extra restrictions for everyday fully unlocked over the Christmas break I think I would personally be ok with that.

Vieira82

when this topic was opened everyone raged at NPHET as cases started to skyrocket. Now people want to "save Christmas"....

is it really that hard to have one, ONE Christmas in a pandemic?

Is it really that much that we went through one, ONE year of a pandemic in contemporary times... Is it really that difficult to listen to who studies this for years who said on and on again winter would be worse. Is it really that difficult to buckle up, keep going and wait for Spring?

The doomsayers are 100% those that don't believe any of this, because now they are the ones going against vaccines, or any kind of restriction to control this. They are the ones planting seeds of hate, division, ignorance and egocentrism...

Do yourselves a favor go watch ANY WHO press conference, ANY WHO mentioning lockdowns. They always mention them as last resort scenarios. ALWAYS. Never as a solution.

The problem is those that don't believe this is a pandemic, don't believe ANY changes in behavior help stop this, so no masks, social distancing or wash of hands. And of course by default don't believe in lockdowns at all. It's the climax of an egocentrism, a personal selfishness propelled by an inane sense of ignorance and unwillingness to learn anything new at all. All it matters is to get the same message that validates this ignorant point of view no matter how ridiculous the arguments are. That random facebook post is proof and accuracy. That doctor working years studying pandemics is part of an international conspiracy to control people with masks...

We're currently having one of the lowest infection rates around Europe, people want to open up just before Christmas, the time people go out en mass shopping. I see Christmas markets being advertise left and right like this pandemic is over. It is not.

So you know what? Go ahead! Open everything in the colder months of the year, in the busiest months of the year for retail.

You can save this message below and I'll gladly eat my words if I'm wrong but:

January and February will be even worse in terms of infections, ICUs admissions and deaths... crossing fingers that we'll get vaccine distribution asap or otherwise it will be even worse than it has been until now...

Now I know you'll point the finger at me and say I'm the doomsayer now, well... it's not that, it's simple maths that everyone can make!

And all that is asked is again, ONE YEAR. ONE DIFFERENT YEAR from all the other ones beforehand... one year wearing masks, social distancing and avoiding big crowds. Is it really that hard? Or aren't we just living in a terribly spoiled society that can't go through 12 months of doing something different?!!?!

My heart will go to the real victims of all of this, those that passed away, and their families, those with long covid and all that could have EASILY be avoided if we'd all simply behaved like citizens of a civilized society where the "we" is more important than the "I".

Dr. Mike Ryan from WHO was saying at a press conference recently how in 10, 20 years times we'll look back and assess the situation. I am sure we will look at the consequences of ignorance, fueling governments that take decisions not caring for the people but the economic lobbies that "sponsor" them.

This will be studied for ages at how a society has sufficient knowledge to protect itself from a pandemic, but VOLUNTARILY chooses to ignore this knowledge and lead to deaths by the thousands a day in favor of profit...

btw... go look at whom has made more money through all of this... the same guys wanting us all back at work and holding many governments by the proverbial testicles...

Thats me

Drumpot wrote: »

I thought it was a government leak?

bladespin wrote: »

As far as I've read the leak came from the other side, that said NPHET have a public advisory role as well so they could have chose to officially release it to the press but didn't.

LOL, guys. I tried to refresh that story by media publications and it seem it was never disclosed how this information was made public.

Order of events was:

1. On October 1, last Thursday in a letter to Health Minister Stephen Donnelly, NPHET said although the trajectory of the virus was concerning, the current epidemiological data did not strongly support a move to level 3 nationally at that time. Ref: https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/ireland-level-five-latest-cabinet-22794131
   
2. 4th of October evening Dr Tony Holohan returned to the main job after a meeting of NPHET had recommended a move to Level Five restrictions. Ref: https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/health-news/dr-tony-holohan-delivers-stark-22796885. Is it coincidence that NPHET have radically changed their evaluation just before doctor's return? I'd guess probably only he in NPHET has enough will to push "uncomfortable" decision trough the govt.
   
3. 5th of October the bombshell letter that Dr Tony Holohan sent to Government asking for level five lockdown explodes media: https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/inside-dr-tony-holohans-explosive-22797845 - no information on where media got the text of this letter though.
   
4. Resentful rereaction from Leo: "Tanaiste Leo Varadkar was criticising CMO Dr Tony Holohan and NPHET on live TV for failing to consult Cabinet in advance of recommending a drastic move to Level Five." - this is why i got impression it was not government leak. Also i do not understand why adviser should consult Cabinet before giving recommendation.
   
5. Aggrieved like child Govt in revenge to their adviser have invented three reasons why not to follow advise "The three reasons why Government said no to NPHET's Level 5 advice" - but no of these reasons addressing main issue, increasing number of cases.
   
6. NPHET still insisting on L5, under pressure of facts Govt had to agree change 20th of October, but being "aggrieved like child" they have implemented it on worst possible way and now we still have not reached pre-outbreak numbers and having good chances to have this pseudo-L5 extended to up to the Christmas, not telling fast strict lockdown if implemented when NPHET advised it obviously would save some lives and some lungs, not telling fast strict lockdown if implemented when NPHET advised it obviously would be less destructive for businesses etc.

meeeeh

Vieira82 wrote: »

a whole pile of overemotional waffle...

All this will not make one difference except make you angry that people are not doing what you want them to do. Lockdown fatigue was always expected and L5 will not work in perpetuity. And spare me the whole you killing people if you don't agree with me argument... Do you think strict lockdowns cause jo damage. Do you think that won't cause excess deaths and among people who are expected to live longer that next few years.

Vieira82

meeeeh wrote: »

All this will not make one difference except make you angry that people are not doing what you want them to do. Lockdown fatigue was always expected and L5 will not work in perpetuity. And spare me the whole you killing people if you don't agree with me argument... Do you think strict lockdowns cause jo damage. Do you think that won't cause excess deaths and among people who are expected to live longer that next few years.

mate... where did I say lockdowns where a paradise of rivers of honey and beer? oh yes.. that's right... ABSOLUTELY NOWHERE. The problem is people being too spoiled in their "me" existence that for the first time in their lives they face an actual health crisis and they all behave like 50 year old spoiled babies...

Oh and I do spare you the whole "you killing people" I honestly do! Because those where your words speaking from your guilty conscience. Not mine.

And if from all I wrote that's all you understood then clearly your conscience is screaming very loudly at you at the moment

MOH

Vieira82 wrote:

ok then what is it? enlighten me or guardian of knowledge

I don't think knowledge needs any guarding from people who are incapable of reading the post directly above theirs.

Thats me wrote: »

Ill logics.
News from 5th of October:

As we can see NPHET have recommended L5 to government much earlier and then consistently adhered to its line.

And if you read the minutes from the meeting I specifically referred to, they once again recommended L5. Although some members still wanted to wait for a week to give L3 a chance to take effect.

Even your data is strange - why the hell we are looking on positive test ratios when direct stats showing daily new cases is readily available?

(I'm going to just ignore the bit where you helpfully linked to the same datasource that I highlighted at the bottom of the post you're replying to )

Why would you look at daily new cases? The number of tests we were doing roughly tripled in a month. If you do more tests, you'll get higher daily new cases. That doesn't mean the situation is getting worse - it certainly might mean that, but it might just as well mean that the situation hasn't changed but you missed a large number of positive cases earlier because you weren't testing enough. And you can't know which it is. So the only way to get a consistent picture of how numbers are changing is to allow for the variation in the number of tests being conducted - which is the positivity rate.

I do not tell about such logical omissions like attributing decreasing of cases to the Level 3 restrictions. Try to prove this and you probably will get Nobel Prize next year.

Again, you clearly missed the bit where I linked to the data which shows that the numbers had started going down even before they actually introduced level 5? (And that includes the raw daily case numbers, in case you still think they're somehow the best measure). And had gone down significantly.

I don't think they give Nobel prizes for pointing out the blindingly obvious.
The 5-day and 7-day averages, positivity rate, and daily raw cases had all started decreasing quite rapidly before the level 5 restrictions had an effect.
This is not my opinion. This is a fact that anyone who's not too lazy to do so can verify for themselves by actually looking at the published data.

Drumpot wrote: »

I really do despair at some of the really shallow and ignorant sentiments in these COVID threads. This is a crisis, mistakes will be made and sometimes wrong decisions will be made. How much of a difference is level 5 making in comparison to what level 3 might of down? I don’t f**king know, but some people talk as if it’s definitively proven that level 3 would of been fine. The problem with the world is that the stupid are cock sure and the intelligent are so full of doubt.

Blah blah blah.
I really do despair at people who are too lazy to spend 20 minutes looking at data for themselves, but would rather just resort to trite abusive comments. There's hardly anything more shallow or ignorant that ignoring information readily available .
It's not a matter of intelligence, it's a matter of putting in a small bit of effort - maybe stop whinging and go and actually look at the numbers for yourself. Or being cocksure - I'd be equally happy to see somebody post a reasonable analysis that makes me look like an idiot but at least shows there's a solid justification for the current L5 restrictions that's borne out by the actual important numbers, and not just scaremongering sound bites about either raw daily cases of whicher of the 14-, 7-, or 5- day averages suit today's agenda.
Or don't, I don't actually care.

There's only one cocksure person I'm worried about, and unfortunately he's in a position of far more influence that posting on this thread.

Vieira82

MOH wrote: »

bla bla bla rant rant rant you're wrong I'm right, It's all about me me me and I'll be political incorrect to everyone because I'm always right about everything

Well... guess that's it... you won the internet

zerosugarbuzz

nc6000 wrote: »

Restrictions will have to be relaxed for a period around Christmas or people will just ignore them. If pubs and restaurants are not allowed to reopen then I think a lot of them never will.

It's likely we will have to have a third lockdown in January or February as cases will be on the rise after Christmas and it will be another few months before any vaccine rollout starts.

At this point who actually cares? Except retail and recreational activities we are all getting on with our lives.

ZX7R

After reading articles and tweets posted on the other threads and news reports from across Europe it would appear that governments are starting to lose the attention of there medical advice groups.
Definitely a change from lockdown talk to vaccination talk

kippy

ZX7R wrote: »

After reading articles and tweets posted on the other threads and news reports from across Europe it would appear that governments are starting to lose the attention of there medical advice groups.
Definitely a change from lockdown talk to vaccination talk

As you'd expect surely....no one wants to be living with increased restrictions....

ZX7R

kippy wrote: »

As you'd expect surely....no one wants to be living with increased restrictions....

I wasn't employing people want extra restrictions, but most groups like nphet are still pushing for said restrictions.
I was saying that not just the people but governments have changed there thinking on things