Covid in Schools

SlowBlowin

I don't know what attendance levels have been like, but parents I know locally are not that keen to see their children return to school after the break, if schools are open I think attendance might be very low.

A Law

SlowBlowin wrote: »

I don't know what attendance levels have been like, but parents I know locally are not that keen to see their children return to school after the break, if schools are open I think attendance might be very low.

I've have full attendance most days. Last two days I had one absence. Most parents are delighted to get rid of their kids to school.

deiseindublin

SlowBlowin wrote: »

I don't know what attendance levels have been like, but parents I know locally are not that keen to see their children return to school after the break, if schools are open I think attendance might be very low.

The media and DES spin of just how safe schools are usually solves that.

Bobtheman

deiseindublin wrote: »

The media and DES spin of just how safe schools are usually solves that.

I don't think they can spin their way out of this.
I'd prefer to be back in school as about a third of our students switched off last time

Bobtheman

Looking what's being discussed in the UK plus the new variant of covid I'm pretty certain schools will close again. This variant does spread through kids. Most of us don't believe the spin from the Department but they won't be able to spin this.
Once again the state has failed to plan.
I don't want to teach from home. I'm not comfortable with the technology and you lose a lot over a screen but I just feel its heading that way.

shesty

Bobtheman wrote: »

I disagree. I can see the schools closing. The new strain. Projections etc

Honestly at this point, it is extremely hard to tell.

I think by the time the schools are due to return (Wed 6th?) You will be seeing the effects of interactions on Christmas Day.That being said, we saw last time that the week before a lockdown was actually announced, when it was only being floated, people started to restrict their movements, which would have been the last week really....so possibly by the time Wed 6th rolls round you may see a spike followed by a fall off in numbers, if people started to reduce their movements in the days leading up to Christmas and a new lockdown.

I really don't know where things will go in the next few weeks.I think NPHET were borderline hysterical the last few days, and I am reserving judgement to see was that really justified or not.Last time (October) they were the same, and it fell flat on its face -there was no need for the hysteria.My own feeling is that the overblown rhetoric they were using on the 23rd and 24th was totally uncalled for, and they should be called to account for it, to be honest.But then my tolerance for hysteria in dealing with a problem is fairly limited, so that might just be me.

We shall see I suppose.

wirelessdude01

Bobtheman wrote: »

Looking what's being discussed in the UK plus the new variant of covid I'm pretty certain schools will close again. This variant does spread through kids. Most of us don't believe the spin from the Department but they won't be able to spin this.
Once again the state has failed to plan.
I don't want to teach from home. I'm not comfortable with the technology and you lose a lot over a screen but I just feel its heading that way.

If there are disruptions I fully expect that we'll be back to school and then shut. Really don't think the government will allow full closures as thatmwoukd be the admitting defeat. In my opinion they'll keep primary fully open and then just the exam classes at secondary. Secondary teachers to conduct remote teaching from the school. That wya they can create the narrative that they are forcing those pesky teachers to continue working

Bobtheman

Yeah perhaps opening a week or two before closure but I still see closure.

shesty

The other thing to note, is that several times in news conferences in the last week, they referenced Jan/Feb traditionally being a time when hospitals were overwhelmed.That doesn't add up for me.To my understanding, the flu is generally the cause of a lot of that problem.As I understand it, there has been little or no flu season in Australia, and since the vaccine was pushed very hard here,along with the increased hygiene and decresed social interactions, I fail to see how there will be much of a flu season here either.In which case the hospitals should not be overwhelmed - and at the end of the day, that's what the point of all this lockdown business is about, stopping hospitals from being overwhelmed. And if they plan to lockdown anyway, then the hospitals should not be an issue.....

km79

Bobtheman wrote: »

Yeah perhaps opening a week or two before closure but I still see closure.

I predict similar to the North
Exam classes only in to sit mocks
Everyone else remote learning until mid term

khalessi

shesty wrote: »

The other thing to note, is that several times in news conferences in the last week, they referenced Jan/Feb traditionally being a time when hospitals were overwhelmed.That doesn't add up for me.To my understanding, the flu is generally the cause of a lot of that problem.As I understand it, there has been little or no flu season in Australia, and since the vaccine was pushed very hard here,along with the increased hygiene and decresed social interactions, I fail to see how there will be much of a flu season here either.In which case the hospitals should not be overwhelmed - and at the end of the day, that's what the point of all this lockdown business is about, stopping hospitals from being overwhelmed. And if they plan to lockdown anyway, then the hospitals should not be an issue.....

They mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the flu season here was almost no existant this year on the news if I recall

SlowBlowin

shesty wrote: »

As I understand it, there has been little or no flu season in Australia, and since the vaccine was pushed very hard here,along with the increased hygiene and decresed social interactions, I fail to see how there will be much of a flu season here either.In which case the hospitals should not be overwhelmed - and at the end of the day, that's what the point of all this lockdown business is about, stopping hospitals from being overwhelmed. And if they plan to lockdown anyway, then the hospitals should not be an issue.....

I think you should also take into account how remarkably efficient and tight the Aussie lockdown has been, that's bound to help make a light flu season over there.

Our lockdown is a magnitude less effective that theirs, enforced lockdown in police run hotels for inter state travel etc.

Hopefully you are right.

jrosen

I don’t think schools will be a safe environment come Jan when they are due back. As a whole schools were managing as best they could with some doing far better than others.
But 2 weeks of total community/county/country mixing = a disaster for the returning school date.

Not one single person I know changed their plans for Xmas with the numbers rising. One of my sons friends flew out to Gran Canaria.

I would not be surprised if we saw a delayed return to school. If anything else to reduce community to community spread.

wirelessdude01

So in the current wave does anyone want to put a number on it, the number at which they believe school buildings will be shut?

khalessi

We have rising numbers and a 40% decrease in cleaning budget heading into term, I think the only way schools will be closed is if the parents demand it, I think they will stick to by hook or by crook.

wirelessdude01

khalessi wrote: »

We have rising numbers and a 40% decrease in cleaning budget heading into term 2 but I thik the only way schools will be closed is if the parents demand it, I think they will stick to by hook or by crook.

Both arms of the NPC have been utterly silent since September.

TheValeyard

Happy Christmas to all here, been a tough time for us, but we did it well and deserve our break. Stay safe and cherish your family.

Rosita

shesty wrote: »

Honestly at this point, it is extremely hard to tell.

I think by the time the schools are due to return (Wed 6th?) You will be seeing the effects of interactions on Christmas Day.That being said, we saw last time that the week before a lockdown was actually announced, when it was only being floated, people started to restrict their movements, which would have been the last week really....so possibly by the time Wed 6th rolls round you may see a spike followed by a fall off in numbers, if people started to reduce their movements in the days leading up to Christmas and a new lockdown.

I really don't know where things will go in the next few weeks.I think NPHET were borderline hysterical the last few days, and I am reserving judgement to see was that really justified or not.Last time (October) they were the same, and it fell flat on its face -there was no need for the hysteria.My own feeling is that the overblown rhetoric they were using on the 23rd and 24th was totally uncalled for, and they should be called to account for it, to be honest.But then my tolerance for hysteria in dealing with a problem is fairly limited, so that might just be me.

We shall see I suppose.

We shall see maybe. The only problem with what you are writing is that it is very vague and not really possible to measure. You mention hysteria but don't specify at what figures and rate of transmission changing levels would not be hysterical. Nor do you explain why exactly "it fell flat on its face" in October - they changed levels and the figures dropped, what should have happened? This seems like if NPHET act and figures drop then that by definition proves NPHET were wrong about increasing figures. It's just a circular argument. It's like telling someone who goes on a diet that they were about to stop gaining weight anyway and that their weight loss proves they were exaggerating their weight gain.

What you have written looks like no matter what it can be interpreted after the fact as NPHET having acted wrongly but we have no way of knowing how an alternative narrative would have transpired.

shesty

What I am saying is I don't have a clue how it will go, but I wouldn't bet on schools closing based on case numbers rising right now.
That is all.

amacca

shesty wrote: »

What I am saying is I don't have a clue how it will go, but I wouldn't bet on schools closing based on case numbers rising right now.
That is all.

In fairness you said more than that, if I'm not mistaken and I think the poster that took you up on it has a valid point.

See below.

"I think NPHET were borderline hysterical the last few days, and I am reserving judgement to see was that really justified or not.Last time (October) they were the same, and it fell flat on its face -there was no need for the hysteria.My own feeling is that the overblown rhetoric they were using on the 23rd and 24th was totally uncalled for, and they should be called to account for it, to be honest"

rainbowtrout

khalessi wrote: »

They mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the flu season here was almost no existant this year on the news if I recall

Just going on observations in school, I haven’t seen a single child sneeze or sniffle through the month of December. Last December when that horrible strain of flu was going around we had over 100 out every day for the last two weeks of school.

shesty

That was simply an opinion, which at this point I may as well delete, as it is not relevant to the discussion here .In the context of responding to Bobtheman's post on school closures, I was only saying that I don't know if it is guaranteed that schools will close in 10 days time or so, because there are a couple of other major factors at play such as people's change of behaviour prior to a lockdown being announced, and the possible absence of much of a flu season, to go by Australia's experience (since that is where we always seem to look to judge how our flu season will go) that make it difficult to know what numbers will do in the next few weeks.

shesty

rainbowtrout wrote: »

Just going on observations in school, I haven’t seen a single child sneeze or sniffle through the month of December. Last December when that horrible strain of flu was going around we had over 100 out every day for the last two weeks of school.

Anecdotally obviously, but my kids have literally been 98% less sick so far than they were last winter.The whole class have been very well, and both are at young ages, where distancing isn't really a feature.
All from just hand washing, and possibly keeping unwell kids at home (or at least I assume most people are keeping unwell kids at home).

Rosita

For what it's worth I cannot imagine any scenario now in which schools would close. At this stage we are over 1,000 cases per day and they are not even closing non-essential retail.

The situation with schools is a political issue, and the government has nailed the measure of its competence to the mast of schools being open. They, and NPHET, have also said (weirdly I think) that schools are safer for children than the home so closing schools could be argued on that basis to be actually endangering people.

Also with a vaccine on the horizon they will be aiming to tough it out and will live with 2,000 cases per day as long as hospitals can cope. And even if hospitals can't cope schools won't close. That's how I see it anyway.

We were at nearly 1,300 per day a couple of months ago and some people were unmoved saying that there was still no need for level 5 (even though we'd probably never have got under 600/700 cases per day without it) so I'm not sure people generally find numbers as "worrying" as George Lee does. NPHET will have their own view and a job to do but numbers alone are a little abstract and have lost their impact for many who see no difference and have become accustomed to the new situation.

That creates a political climate where schools will never close until we have something crazy like 5,000 cases per day in two weeks and they need to take the steam out of it. And even that decision makes no sense in the context of the claim that schools are safer than homes.

shesty

I think it is the ICU numbers their main focus is on, rather than the cases, although they do seem to be working on the basis that approx 1000 cases seems to roughly give 25-30 people in ICU, which would appear to be a tipping point for the system.
You are right though, it would be a big political failure if schools had to be closed, in the Government's eyes (to be fair, I am not looking for them to be closed, just an observation)

deiseindublin

Where are our unions?

khalessi

deiseindublin wrote: »

Where are our unions?

Eerily quiet and on holiday no doubt.

wirelessdude01

deiseindublin wrote: »

Where are our unions?

Negotiations will start on the 4th and an announcement of an extra bottle of cleaning spray and an extra large roll of blue paper to be shared between three schools will be made on the evening of the 5th.

All three unions will release statements giving themselves a pat on the back saying how great they are and that although the government were hard negotiators, the unions stuck to their guns and for their members a good deal.

jusvi2001

School closures should be based on the local infection rates. not just all schools in the country has to shut shutdown based on national infection rates. it is going take a long to time to defeat this virus mean while we need to adjust our life to live with covid. home schooling or online learning is not equivalent to attending school. it plays a great role in our kids mental health. there is lot of scaremongering as well. our hospitals are always stretched to their limits in winter time. just look at the figures of patients in trolley and number of death in pre covid time.

no doubt our government has failed schools in providing adequate support. they had plenty of time to plan and execute after the first wave of covid. but they waited until last minute and did too little. along with the front line workers they should prioritize teachers as well for the vaccine. i wish our students, teachers and other staff a safe return to school in the new year.

SpacialNeeds

https://mobile.twitter.com/CatrionaGolden/status/1343189627902062598

Absolutely scandalous.