Recession is back baby

listermint

As far as I know the definition of recession is negative growth for 2 consecutive quarters.

Q1 was plus 1.2%
Q2 was negative.


So I don't think that fits the definition. Hence my confusion about the premise of this thread.

Plumbthedepths

Zebra3 wrote: »

Relax, folks, Micheál Martin is running the country.

It's not like we're stuck with some useless gimp that has previous for absolutely destroying the economy.

MM I believe would be capable through incompetence of turning a recession into a depression.

screamer

Don’t worry Brexit will be along to sink the economy at year end.
We were also very badly affected by the last recession but lessons learned means we’ve savings that will almost clear all our loans if worst comes to worst. I hope people generally put money into a rainy day fund.

Gregor Samsa

listermint wrote: »

As far as I know the definition of recession is negative growth for 2 consecutive quarters.

Q1 was plus 1.2%
Q2 was negative.


So I don't think that fits the definition. Hence my confusion about the premise of this thread.

The point is that the CSO is now saying that Q1 was negative. From the Irish Times:

“ The CSO also revised down its initial estimate for growth in the first quarter to -2.1 per cent, meaning the Irish economy is now officially in recession.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-now-officially-in-recession-as-economy-shrinks-by-6-1-1.4348513

ChippingSodbury

tonycascarino wrote: »

Now we are going to see who really has money and who doesn't. Goodbye to keeping up with the Joneses.

I hear Jones is even having trouble keeping up with himself...

a very cool kid

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

MM I believe would be capable through incompetence of turning a recession into a depression.

What are you basing this on? Some media spin?

He's actually very competent and has done an awful lot of good in any ministerial role he has ever had.

It's an awful lot more difficult to reopen things than it is to just close them down. If you take away the political circus (and the fact Leo is trying to undermine him at every opportunity) he's actually not doing too bad a job.

screamer

Charlie19 wrote: »

Just trying put a bit of positivity into thread.

Construction was one of the first industries to take a hit in the last recession but this time around the housing crisis might just buy us some time in the hope that something happens with finding some solutions to Covid19.

Construction is still booming. Huge volumes of work, can’t get enough qualified people. Bank lending will be the decider in whether the industry stays going or not.

Fuascailteoir

a very cool kid wrote: »

What are you basing this on? Some media spin?

He's actually very competent and has done an awful lot of good in any ministerial role he has ever had.

It's an awful lot more difficult to reopen things than it is to just close them down. If you take away the political circus (and the fact Leo is trying to undermine him at every opportunity) he's actually not doing too bad a job.

The current government is like a circus side show

Sleepy

a very cool kid wrote: »

What are you basing this on? Some media spin?

He's actually very competent and has done an awful lot of good in any ministerial role he has ever had.

It's an awful lot more difficult to reopen things than it is to just close them down. If you take away the political circus (and the fact Leo is trying to undermine him at every opportunity) he's actually not doing too bad a job.

As part of notorious crimelord Bertie Ahern's cabinets from 1997 through to 2008, Martin has previous form in destroying the country's economy.

Zak Flaps

I'm so glad i still work in the sex industry!

lawred2

6% contraction with an economy in lockdown

Jesus lads, that's a ridiculously good outcome.

Wait until q3 numbers.

TheValeyard

This year sucks.

RonanG86

Zebra3 wrote: »

Relax, folks, Micheál Martin is running the country.

It's not like we're stuck with some useless gimp that has previous for absolutely destroying the economy.

As if it makes a material difference whether FG or FF are in charge of this country.

Oh wait, both are. Even better. Or worse, depending on how you view it.

valoren

Remember that dating agency where you were only allowed join if you made more than 35k or thereabouts?

DangerScouse

Knew two lads who took their own lives in the last recession so I look back at it with a great sadness despite never losing my job or suffering financially personally.

Hope we aren't going back to that now

Man with broke phone

Construction will be flying for another year anyway. Theres a huge backlog for workers who are still on jobs that should be finished by now.

Labourers, agency tradesmen and the lads assembling flat pack furniture might feel the pinch first.

Dempo1

It'll be grand

Leo's announced a €2 billion loan scheme for SME"S, Pascal will continue to pay a chunk of wages, Simon has an inordinate amount of new educational schemes just in case ( I've lost count), Eaomonn Ryan has announced a sleep at work incentive, and Heather will insure no one F€&King off will be be checked at the airports, but can insure self employed on PUP payments will actually get a response to being incorrectly penalised and payments reduced because of revenue's ineptitude , meanwhile Michael Martins is deliriously happy about some have baked staycation tax rebate in 2022, what could possibly be go wrong.

Plumbthedepths

a very cool kid wrote: »

What are you basing this on? Some media spin?

He's actually very competent and has done an awful lot of good in any ministerial role he has ever had.

It's an awful lot more difficult to reopen things than it is to just close them down. If you take away the political circus (and the fact Leo is trying to undermine him at every opportunity) he's actually not doing too bad a job.

Wasn't he sat at the Cabinet table when the economy went off the cliff several years ago? That is what I base my opinion on.

Plumbthedepths

TheValeyard wrote: »

This year sucks.

Next year isn't looking to great either tbh.

KungPao

Thankfully we have reverse vending machines for bottles and cans on the way. It’ll be like a gold rush, collecting all that rubbish and cashing in big time.

Sure you’d only need to collect around 10,000 cans per month to keep the mortgage payments up.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Times like these I'm glad I work in the public sector.

Quite the big show aren't you.

I bet you say the same to anyone in real life who's just come off the PUP or looking at an uncertain future now.

nthclare

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

You’re thinking of bondholders, not shareholders. Two completely different things. Bank shareholders lost everything when the banks were nationalised last time. It was the bondholders that were protected by that action.

Also, don’t confuse a credit crunch with a pandemic lockdown. Two completely different things. Banks have little to do with this one. Forgiving debt isn’t going to help in the long run, as it will cause a credit crunch which will only make things worse.

Just because it’s a recession doesn’t mean it has anything to do with the last one. A recession is merely a technical term for two quarters of negative economic growth. What causes that, and what to do to get out of it, is all that really matters. Also. We had two quarters with exceptional and unprecedented events that were out of the control of the economy. We shut down most of our economy for the sake of the health system. We began to undo that in Q3, and are continuing to do so. It’s the next two or three quarters that will allow us to see what the real situation is.

Thanks I meant to say bondholders not shareholders my mistake.

Sorry about the confusion.

nthclare

nthclare wrote: »

Thanks I meant to say bondholders not shareholders my mistake.

Sorry about the confusion.

The Irish State is forever repaying bonds as they fall due, even when it was running massive losses. Should those bondholders have been burned too, meaning no-one would lend to the State again?

How would we fund the pandemic spending in that case?

How about you engage your brain before parrotting something you heard someone else say but that you have no clue about.

Plumbthedepths

salonfire wrote: »

Quite the big show aren't you.

I bet you say the same to anyone in real life who's just come off the PUP or looking at an uncertain future now.

He may not be as flippant when the expected pay rise for the public sector is called into question.

riclad

Of course we are in recession,
many shops and cafes were closed for months, i think alot of landlords did not recieve rent.
Many cafes will close down, cafes only make about 5-10 per cent profit.
How can they keep going when the amount of tables is reduced by 50 per cent.
When people are afraid they might lose their jobs they will stop buying
luxury items or going out .
there are zero tourists coming here, about 200k jobs in ireland depend on tourism.
the last recession was caused by the banks reckless lending and lack of regulation .
We are a small country, we cannot just print money like america.
landlords who rent to retail ,cafes etc will have to reduce the rent to match the fall in revenue for the tenants .
Or else we will see 100,s of shops closing down.
in previous recessions young people would go to the uk or america .
Thats not an option if every western country is in recession

Noah G

I moved back home and started an electrician apprenticeship , if there is a recession would it affect me as I'm on a low wage .

Money wise I'm good got left money a few months ago which gave me the opportunity to go and do an apprenticeship and not worry about the salary .

No debt to pay

ShockChance

Noah G wrote: »

I moved back home and started an electrician apprenticeship , if there is a recession would it affect me as I'm on a low wage .

Money wise I'm good got left money a few months ago which gave me the opportunity to go and do an apprenticeship and not worry about the salary .

No debt to pay

With nobody building new houses and commercial businesses closed that's less and less work for electricians and other trades..

Noah G

ShockChance wrote: »

With nobody building new houses and commercial businesses closed that's less and less work for electricians and other trades..

True but I'm in a big company that has plenty of projects ahead Iv been told they wouldn't hire us unless there was plenty of work ahead and I'm on a low salary , they would let higher salaries go first.

Worse comes to worse I can wait it out have enough saved , no mortgage, kids or debt to pay

ShockChance

Noah G wrote: »

True but I'm in a big company that has plenty of projects ahead Iv been told they wouldn't hire us unless there was plenty of work ahead and I'm on a low salary , they would let higher salaries go first.

Worse comes to worse I can wait it out have enough saved , no mortgage, kids or debt to pay

I worked in construction for many years. they dropped us like flies in the last recession. We went from 6 day weeks to nothing. I spent close to a year going around like a beggar looking for scraps of work. The ones that got hit the hardest were the apprentices. Many could not even finish their apprentices.

Great.

They haven't even finished restoring our pay since the last one.

eviltwin

The last recession was terrible for me personally. We’ve only really recovered in the last three years. Luckily this time around we are both still working and hopefully it will stay that way. For anyone facing into uncertainty try and stay positive, you will come out the other side of this.

Pauliedragon

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Another recession, but all the patriotic folks who love to flee the sinking ship now have to stay on board and see out the storm!

I never understood this line of thinking. Surely someone who feels that the only way to earn a living is to leave is not a problem. Plus everyone on welfare who leaves the country is saving a skint government money. What's wrong with that?

Away With The Fairies

eviltwin wrote: »

The last recession was terrible for me personally. We’ve only really recovered in the last three years. Luckily this time around we are both still working and hopefully it will stay that way. For anyone facing into uncertainty try and stay positive, you will come out the other side of this.

It's going to be sh!t... Worrying about your job and not only that worrying about your health with this pandemic.

Darc19

This will be short lived.

Last recession was result of huge borrowing and massively inflated asset prices and increasing interest rates.

You have none of that.

Manufacturing and services are robust. Construction and retail has rebounded in q3. The only area that is suffering is hospitality and many in that area are getting a covid payment close to what they would have got.

Look at the August tax receipts rather than the April to June stuff.

Way way above the revised estimates. Personal taxes in particular - means people are working.


Confidence is still there too.

Errashareesh

Pauliedragon wrote: »

I never understood this line of thinking. Surely someone who feels that the only way to earn a living is to leave is not a problem. Plus everyone on welfare who leaves the country is saving a skint government money. What's wrong with that?

Maybe they're joking but yeah there are people who genuinely do think that. You're letting your country down if you don't stay here on the dole - totally bizarre.

TheBlackPill

Darc19 wrote: »

This will be short lived.

Last recession was result of huge borrowing and massively inflated asset prices and increasing interest rates.

You have none of that.

Manufacturing and services are robust. Construction and retail has rebounded in q3. The only area that is suffering is hospitality and many in that area are getting a covid payment close to what they would have got.

Look at the August tax receipts rather than the April to June stuff.

Way way above the revised estimates. Personal taxes in particular - means people are working.


Confidence is still there too.

We are highly dependent on how the rest of the world react. Rebellion in China or India and a disorderly brexit or Germany finally maxing out their credit card could tank the world economy, especially if Covid doesn't

Deebles McBeebles

salonfire wrote: »

Quite the big show aren't you.

I bet you say the same to anyone in real life who's just come off the PUP or looking at an uncertain future now.

Strange way to take that post. I see nothing wrong in someone being happy their job is safe, although their pay may not be. We're not going to start this public v private war again at the first sign of an economic downturn are we?

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

He may not be as flippant when the expected pay rise for the public sector is called into question.

Restoration, P!

Errashareesh

AMKC wrote: »

Will you go fu'ck yourself with that stupid suggestion or better yet get a Mistress to Fu,ck you with all that money your swimming in you can no doubt afford it. Just because you have such a great life and have never had to be on the Dole does not mean you should bash people on it. You have no idea of there life.

They were being ironic - you were being fairly "I'm all right Jack" below *though*.

AMKC wrote: »

Lol na fu,ck that. I got through the last recession ok and will get through this one too. It's going to be a weird recession do because instead of prices falling in shops, cinema's etc they will rise because of the pandemic and less customers to go to them too. Prices have already risen and will no doubt rise more. It should be the other way In a recession. At least house and car prices might fall do. Great them to buy during a recession.

Noah G

ShockChance wrote: »

I worked in construction for many years. they dropped us like flies in the last recession. We went from 6 day weeks to nothing. I spent close to a year going around like a beggar looking for scraps of work. The ones that got hit the hardest were the apprentices. Many could not even finish their apprentices.

The last recession was alot worse then this will be, my partners brother was doing a plumbing apprenticeship back then he didnt lose his job hasn't been out of work since. Depends on trade I would say.

I cant see an apprentice dong 2 or 3 years and then not finishing it if lost there Job .
Apprentices would just pick up where they left off when ever they went back to work. I wouldn't say they got it the worse as they wouldn't be paying a mortgage and more then likely living at home .

rob316

gourcuff wrote: »

Speculating but austerity/cutbacks seem to be politically toxic, will we just keep borrowing like hell and the national debt will rocket?

Might as well it can never ever be paid off so keep going, it's cheap, possibly free money.

This will be a sharp recession but short lived, our financial system didn't go into meltdown this time so it's nothing like 2008. The banks are on a short leash still and the property bubble isn't near to bursting.

Errashareesh

Deebles McBeebles wrote: »

Strange way to take that post. I see nothing wrong in someone being happy their job is safe, although their pay may not be. We're not going to start this public v private war again at the first sign of an economic downturn are we?

Absolutely. I had a look to see which post they were quoting, expecting something obnoxious (from one of the usual crew) and it's just "makes me glad I work in the public sector" - that's it! I guess a little ill advised but not deserving that reaction. Anyone would like a public sector job.

ChikiChiki

Noah G wrote: »

True but I'm in a big company that has plenty of projects ahead Iv been told they wouldn't hire us unless there was plenty of work ahead and I'm on a low salary , they would let higher salaries go first.

Worse comes to worse I can wait it out have enough saved , no mortgage, kids or debt to pay

You're in a good situation. I would however be very cautious of taking what any company tells you as gospel. Nothing is certain right now.

Demand for Commercial Real Estate will likely fall through the floor with the switch to remote working. The same with housing demand. The whole landscape has been uprooted. It takes time for this to filter through but banks will be cautious of where they put their money.

Plumbthedepths

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

He may not be as flippant when the expected pay rise for the public sector is called into question.

So you don't want your young lad to get their pay restored or your old works mates in the fire service?

Plumbthedepths

Deebles McBeebles wrote: »

Strange way to take that post. I see nothing wrong in someone being happy their job is safe, although their pay may not be. We're not going to start this public v private war again at the first sign of an economic downturn are we?



Restoration, P!

Not interested in seeing a war start. Many family members in the PS as I 'm sure plenty of others do have also.
The year to date we are running a deficit of circa 9 billion and climbing . Hardly an environment for a pay rise/ restoration imho. I' m aware there is an agreement and expectation.
Thats my last on the topic.

tonycascarino

A seemingly no deal Brexit will be on the way at the end of the year to finish us off anyway

Plumbthedepths

DubInMeath wrote: »

So you don't want your young lad to get their pay restored or your old works mates in the fire service?

My son is only a Guard 2 and half years, he's quite happy on circa 46k a year.
Retained fire fighters usually have full time jobs as did I when I was in it so did the rest of the lads. So none of us were relaying on the income for a living, long story short if you employer hasn't got the funds to increase your pay what's the alternative?

1990sman

there wont be a recession per se, figures are down because of the lockdown, and in particular the lack of pubs where alcohol is sold at tax levels higher than most countries, same with fags, box of 20 smokes is like 4 euro in some eu countries but u can add a tenner for the privilege here.

people need stuff and they also want stuff so they're gonna buy stuff, lots of stuff and this christmas is going to be epic!

landofthetree

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/tech-giant-google-pulls-out-of-office-deal-in-dublin-docklands-1.4348998?mode=amp

Commercial property in Dublin is beyond screwed.


Who is going to want 202,000 sq ft of offices space in Dublin?

What will Marlet do now? The interest alone on the development must be huge?

Free article on Bloomberg about the meltdown of Dublin commercial property

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-07/google-abandons-plan-to-rent-dublin-office-for-2-000-workers

Plumbthedepths

landofthetree wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/tech-giant-google-pulls-out-of-office-deal-in-dublin-docklands-1.4348998?mode=amp

Commercial property in Dublin is beyond screwed.

Also businesses that relied on office workers, coffee shops, cafes for eg.

Feisar

Noah G wrote: »

True but I'm in a big company that has plenty of projects ahead Iv been told they wouldn't hire us unless there was plenty of work ahead and I'm on a low salary , they would let higher salaries go first.

Worse comes to worse I can wait it out have enough saved , no mortgage, kids or debt to pay

They are hiring because they need you now. If they don’t need you in a months time they’ll let you go and think nothing of it.