Is it time for a Dublin lockdown?

odyssey06

growleaves wrote: »

Look at the comorbidities section of CDC site:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Comorbidities

Only 6% of deaths were Covid alone, the other 94% of deaths had an average of 2.6 other causes.

Thats not what that data means.
It lists complications caused by covid such as pneumonia as a comorbidity cause.
You are mixing up pre existing conditions and complication conditions.

_Kaiser_

circadian wrote: »

Only the old and vulnerable? Any sauces for that because I can tell you now you're talking out of your arse.

A friend of mine spent 10 weeks in an induced coma, suffered multiple organ failure and his wife notified that he probably won't make it. He eventually did but I would say the vast majority of these cases do not.

He is 34, no underlying conditions, non smoker and reasonably fit.

So you can **** off with your only the elderly and vulnerable bull****.

Firstly - and genuinely - I'm sorry to hear about your friend and glad he made it. Hopefully he's over the worst.

However it doesn't change the fact that statistically he's an outlier. The majority of similar people of his age and in his condition do not suffer any ill effects.

We cannot however continue to make decisions based on outliers or those who could be better served by specific targeted approaches. This isn't heartless, it's pragmatism and essential when dealing at a national scale with the myriad of competing and indeed conflicting factors involved.

circadian

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Firstly - and genuinely - I'm sorry to hear about your friend and glad he made it. Hopefully he's over the worst.

However it doesn't change the fact that statistically he's an outlier. The majority of similar people of his age and in his condition do not suffer any ill effects.

We cannot however continue to make decisions based on outliers or those who could be better served by specific targeted approaches. This isn't heartless, it's pragmatism and essential when dealing at a national scale with the myriad of competing and indeed conflicting factors involved.

I don't disagree that at this point in time, he is an outlier.

What I take issue with is the horse**** "only old people or vulnerable should be worried" statements by GT89. This is in line with "I'm not wearing a mask" selfishness that other posters come out with.

I take issue with the fact that many are making changes to their lives to help others but there are some that drag their heels and to make it worse, spread lies, mistruths and conspiracies online to boot.

douglashyde

circadian wrote: »

Only the old and vulnerable? Any sauces for that because I can tell you now you're talking out of your arse.

A friend of mine spent 10 weeks in an induced coma, suffered multiple organ failure and his wife notified that he probably won't make it. He eventually did but I would say the vast majority of these cases do not.

He is 34, no underlying conditions, non smoker and reasonably fit.

So you can **** off with your only the elderly and vulnerable bull****.

Genuinely sorry to hear about your friend, here are the stats from the CRO:

Median age of death = 83 & 88% had underlying health conditions < Source

lucernarian

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Firstly - and genuinely - I'm sorry to hear about your friend and glad he made it. Hopefully he's over the worst.

However it doesn't change the fact that statistically he's an outlier. The majority of similar people of his age and in his condition do not suffer any ill effects.

We cannot however continue to make decisions based on outliers or those who could be better served by specific targeted approaches. This isn't heartless, it's pragmatism and essential when dealing at a national scale with the myriad of competing and indeed conflicting factors involved.

But even that is not true, 20% of people coming down with serious illness and battling it out over a few weeks isn't fun either personally or for hospitals or for the economy.

Sure it's the majority who won't be affected, but putting even 20% of people through a nasty illness is not something we can just ignore.

joe40

lucernarian wrote: »

You're right. Certain posters getting away with the "it's only elderly who die" red herring. 20% of people get seriously ill from it, a good chunk of that needs hospitalisations. And because young people are more likely to come out from ICU in a trolley and not a coffin, there's apparently no problem. Makes you wonder the ****e people choose to believe in.

The other thing that is forgotten is that we have no idea how damaging covid 19 would be if given free rein in the same way as seasonal flu.
Most countries locked down before it got a hold.
I agree we need to re open society and live alongside this infection but no harm in doing that cautiously.

It might turn out not to be as harmful as thought to the vast majority but still prudent to take the next few months carefully.

Dempo1

Kinda getting silly now, Government seems intent on minimising information, apparently (as we don't act know) Dublin facing restrictions re vistors to homes etc. Is this just becoming absurd, how in gods name is this notion enforceable? Notwithstanding its population and layout, its just bonkers even suggesting such nonsense. Clearly cases are being spread in the community but if people's behaviour doesn't change, no amount of restrictions will work. I'm in Laois and our lockdown was, well, a complete farce, I'm not even sure it happened, Kildare ended last week early and yet their cases have not decreased much & offaly up and down like a yoyo.

It's becoming obvious that only short of armagedon, will another lockdown occur, a bit of Trumpism has settled in I fear and if these numbers continue, it's going to be an horrendous winter given the HSE seem to have essentially shut down the public health system and only seem concerned that hospitals might be swamped, guess what, with the current approach, that's about to happen.

smelly sock

Policing by consent really. The majority of people will adhere to it but the free loading " i dont bleedin care" crowd will ensure that this spreads at will.

Dry pubs currently open in dublin should be restricted like the pubs in kildare were. Shopping complexes and food courts closed etc. Sports postponed. They can impose plenty of restrictions that are easier to police.

Dempo1

Xtrail14 wrote: »

The whole country will be locked down before Dublin does. Think about it.

I can't ever see another full lockdown, infact I can't see this government actually making any sensible decisions generally, it's a shambles of mixed messaging, mixed signals and inconsistencies.

auspicious

Currently it's only a presumption that those who suffer 'long-covid' were probably subjected to a high dose of the virus. Yet evidence is mounting that some people who have had relatively mild symptoms may also have this prolonged illness.
Also 'outliers' is not a functioning term as it's impossible to determine the extent to which one will be affected; a 90 year old, with treatment, may fight off the virus and its effects whereas a fit 30 year old may sadly suffer quite the opposite. Or you could say everyone is an outlier.
Does someone who is very fit and in the gym six days a week have a stronger immune system than most? Evidence says this is not the case.

Russman

Dempo1 wrote: »

Kinda getting silly now, Government seems intent on minimising information, apparently (as we don't act know) Dublin facing restrictions re vistors to homes etc. Is this just becoming absurd, how in gods name is this notion enforceable? Notwithstanding its population and layout, its just bonkers even suggesting such nonsense. Clearly cases are being spread in the community but if people's behaviour doesn't change, no amount of restrictions will work. I'm in Laois and our lockdown was, well, a complete farce, I'm not even sure it happened, Kildare ended last week early and yet their cases have not decreased much & offaly up and down like a yoyo.

It's becoming obvious that only short of armagedon, will another lockdown occur, a bit of Trumpism has settled in I fear and if these numbers continue, it's going to be an horrendous winter given the HSE seem to have essentially shut down the public health system and only seem concerned that hospitals might be swamped, guess what, with the current approach, that's about to happen.

This exactly, Trumpism or gombeenism.


The one circle that I can’t square is this notion of “living with the virus“, it’s trotted out like a slogan at this stage but I can’t see how It works. If the vulnerable and at risk people protect themselves and/or society protects them, surely that involves the rest of people not doing certain things, like visiting etc. i.e. still with some restrictions ?
I just can’t see how they’re not mutually exclusive.

odyssey06

auspicious wrote: »

Currently it's only a presumption that those who suffer 'long-covid' were probably subjected to a high dose of the virus. Yet evidence is mounting that some people who have had relatively mild symptoms may also have this prolonged illness.
Also 'outliers' is not a functioning term as it's impossible to determine the extent to which one will be affected; a 90 year old, with treatment, may fight off the virus and its effects whereas a fit 30 year old may sadly suffer quite the opposite. Or you could say everyone is an outlier.
Does someone who is very fit and in the gym six days a week have a stronger immune system than most? Evidence says this is not the case.

Sometimes it is the opposite...strong immune system overreacts and freaks out. Throws the body into a cytokine (?) storm. Causes serious complications.

Assetbacked

circadian wrote: »

Only the old and vulnerable? Any sauces for that because I can tell you now you're talking out of your arse.

A friend of mine spent 10 weeks in an induced coma, suffered multiple organ failure and his wife notified that he probably won't make it. He eventually did but I would say the vast majority of these cases do not.

He is 34, no underlying conditions, non smoker and reasonably fit.

So you can **** off with your only the elderly and vulnerable bull****.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/

Your friend was one of the 17 people between the ages of 25-34 who were admitted to ICU, out of 5283 reported positive for covid in that age group (0.3%). Of course, these are very conservative figures considering we have likely had far higher numbers infected than officially reported as positive.

6 people under the age of 34 in total have died and were recorded as positive or probably positive for covid when they died. 93% of all such deaths are over the age of 65. It's all there in the HPSC reports.

Jim_Hodge

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0910/1164299-nphet-meeting/

Hardly worth it. Reducing from 6 people from 3 households to 6 from two households.

auspicious

odyssey06 wrote: »

Sometimes it is the opposite...strong immune system overreacts and freaks out. Throws the body into a cytokine (?) storm. Causes serious complications.

Exactly. It's not about protecting a certain group or outliers but everyone, as it is a lottery.

I was in Drumshanbo a few days ago and seen lots of school goers congregating outside the local Centra and heading in to buy lunch all the while not wearing masks.
I visited my mechanic today and he stood right beside me. Later on I was in Athlone NCT and seen men chatting close together- after removing thier masks for a smoke.

The spread will be sustained if simple preventative guidelines are not adhered to.

DangerScouse

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0910/1164299-nphet-meeting/

Hardly worth it. Reducing from 6 people from 3 households to 6 from two households.

Not enough im afraid.

crossman47

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0910/1164299-nphet-meeting/

Hardly worth it. Reducing from 6 people from 3 households to 6 from two households.

It could be. The real problems are coming from things like First Communion parties. I know teachers in a school who are dreading the aftermath of Communion being held shortly. How it can be policed is another matter.

Should have been locked down long ago.

Assetbacked

crossman47 wrote: »

It could be. The real problems are coming from things like First Communion parties. I know teachers in a school who are dreading the aftermath of Communion being held shortly. How it can be policed is another matter.

Among other things, without shutting down the airport for the 2 weeks, they would struggle to get even majority buy in.

John_Rambo

Deleted User wrote: »

Should have been locked down long ago.

It was locked down. Do you not remember? The whole country was Locked down and it wasn't sustainable. Once lockdown was lifted we get to where we are now, flush and recycle. Have you read the whole thread? Have you been following the stats? We know more about C-19, It's with us till there's a vaccine in the far future, we need to be clever and responsible, protect the vulnerable and stop household infection.

Graham

John_Rambo wrote: »

We know more about C-19, It's with us till there's a vaccine in the far future, we need to be clever and responsible, protect the vulnerable and stop household infection.

This

begbysback

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Should have been locked down long ago.

If that’s what you want then go ahead, lock yourself down, why are you waiting?

expectationlost

whats the point of more restrictions selfish people will continue to ignore and won't be enforced?

Atlantic Dawn

None of them have the balls to lockdown Dublin, it will make them a hate figure.

Spanish Eyes

Would be an interesting experiment to lock down Dublin.

Scratch that, it won't happen. No one to police it even if it did happen apart from the closing of pubs and restaurants.

So back to the house parties we go. Perfect. Just what they don't want. You could not make this up anymore.

Oranage2

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

None of them have the balls to lockdown Dublin, it will make them a hate figure.

I see the main headline on Rte news is NPHET want tighter restrictions, this is just so FF come out and say no so they look like heroes.

Micky 32

Oranage2 wrote: »

I see the main headline on Rte news is NPHET want tighter restrictions, this is just so FF come out and say no so they look like heroes.

If you so badly want a lockdown lock yourself in and watch the world go by between your twitching curtains.

Here’s a plan. Try and learn to live with it instead of constant “ lock us all up” solution. Do all you can to protect yourself and others.

Paddygreen

Even though I am on the opposite spectrum I personally like the idea that far right fascist Boris Johnson’s guys came up with. Covid rule enforcers employed by councils. Environmental officers on steroids with teeth that can bite into those who don’t follow the rules Love it.

Strumms

expectationlost wrote: »

whats the point of more restrictions selfish people will continue to ignore and won't be enforced?

I tend to agree.

In order for restrictions to work and be effective, there has to be a deterrent to breaking them.

There isn’t, no pub has been closed down, no organization has been sanctioned for organizing marches and encouraging the disregard for social distancing.

The tone was set by that absolute slow out of the blocks corporate gimp fûckwit Varadkar, the chinless muppet is off hiding behind Martin now as part of a damage limitation strategy.

The right tone needed to be set from minute one. It wasn’t and proved the overriding catalyst for the ensuing trouble, illness and deaths ... then he hid, absolute cretin, coming out for his hospital photo ops... fûck off Leo, joke of a human being and even worse leader / public ‘servant’.. right.

Happydays2020

Strumms wrote: »

I tend to agree.

In order for restrictions to work and be effective, there has to be a deterrent to breaking them.

There isn’t, no pub has been closed down, no organization has been sanctioned for organizing marches and encouraging the disregard for social distancing.

The tone was set by that absolute slow out of the blocks corporate gimp fûckwit Varadkar, the chinless muppet is off hiding behind Martin now as part of a damage limitation strategy.

The right tone needed to be set from minute one. It wasn’t and proved the overriding catalyst for the ensuing trouble, illness and deaths ... then he hid, absolute cretin, coming out for his hospital photo ops... fûck off Leo, joke of a human being and even worse leader / public ‘servant’.. right.

The same Government has just proposed laws which I think are now adopted by the Oireachtas which will provide for the legal means to close down pubs.

I am thankful that we live in a country where its leaders more generally respect the rule of law and use the parliament to change the laws.