Is it time for a Dublin lockdown?

growleaves

quokula wrote: »

It’s amazing how all the medical experts and epidemiologists have been so heavily swayed

But they haven't. Whenever any epidemiologist with a different opinion is quoted posters sulk, try to make out that they are discredited or otherwise ignore them and say we have to listen to media-designated 'official' scientists only.

B.A._Baracus

Stupid question perhaps
But if Dublin does go into lockdown it's pretty much the same as the march lockdown right? No shops open except supermarkets no travelling outside a certain radius right?

Graham

growleaves wrote: »

Whenever any epidemiologist with a different opinion is quoted poster sulk, try to make out that they are discredited or otherwise ignore them

In fairness there have been some complete nutjobs trotted out!

The Tetrarch

Those number suggest a lockdown of all County Dublin is needed.
We could have a dusk to dawn curfew, keeping daylight for work, school and shopping.

ongarite

Graham wrote: »

Dublin SE and NW

Pity that Dublin breakdown isn't by electorial map.
It's hard to pinpoint where the areas with highest cases are.
I think Dublin NW is Blanchardstown area, which is one of the densely populated parts of the country with population over 75K.

odyssey06

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Stupid question perhaps
But if Dublin does go into lockdown it's pretty much the same as the march lockdown right? No shops open except supermarkets no travelling outside a certain radius right?

More like Phase 1+ or what was set for Kildare recently.

stephenjmcd

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Stupid question perhaps
But if Dublin does go into lockdown it's pretty much the same as the march lockdown right? No shops open except supermarkets no travelling outside a certain radius right?

No, its being suggested nothing like that is needed and would only be a ban on different households mixing in each others houses. Targeted measures not the shutting down of everthing again

stephenjmcd

odyssey06 wrote: »

More like Phase 1+ or what was set for Kildare recently.

Government sources in the papers saying nothing like that for Dublin or Limerick. Not deemed necessary nor practical appearently.

Any measures would be reducing houses mixing in houses. Thats what they've been kite flying last few days.

Its a bigger issue to put restrictions on dublin given the economic importance and the amount of travel through

growleaves

Graham wrote: »

In fairness there have been some complete nutjobs trotted out!

There's been a mixture. The top epidemiologists at Oxford University, which is one the oldest and best universities on Earth, we're dismissed without much consideration. A Nobel-prize winning physicist was called a hack-fraud. Etc.

In the end, science is accepted through the prism of media and government sanction - which isn't itself a scientific attitude.

BringBackMick

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Those number suggest a lockdown of all County Dublin is needed.
We could have a dusk to dawn curfew, keeping daylight for work, school and shopping.

:D:D

Antares35

HBC08 wrote: »

There seems to be a lack of compliance with the current advice in Dublin so it seems a lockdown is needed.
Its terrible for the majority who are doing their bit but the minority or arent are ruining it for the rest of ye.

My sense is that it is more than a minority not doing their bit to be honest. Gobshítes wandering around with face masks around their necks, people pushing past leaving only a gap of a couple of inches.

Graham

growleaves wrote: »

In the end, science is accepted through the prism of media and government sanction - which isn't itself a scientific attitude.

Or increasingly Youtube / Facebook unfortunately.

micks_address

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No, its being suggested nothing like that is needed and would only be a ban on different households mixing in each others houses. Targeted measures not the shutting down of everthing again

Not easy to enforce households not mixing... closing restaurants and non essential retail would reduce congregation which is probably likely

stephenjmcd

micks_address wrote: »

Not easy to enforce households not mixing... closing restaurants and non essential retail would reduce congregation which is probably likely

I agree not easy but as has been said none of the above that you mention are contributing to spread hence appearently not being considered.

Clear driver is houses mixing in the houses. Has been singled out last few days and specific events mentioned by Dr Glynn last night

Airyfairy12

Its about time they start cracking down on house parties and enforcing covid regulations on younger people. They are costing lives, the health care system and the economy which we will all pay the price for.

The Tetrarch

micks_address wrote: »

Not easy to enforce households not mixing... closing restaurants and non essential retail would reduce congregation which is probably likely

Power cut?

Airyfairy12

Airyfairy12 wrote: »

Its about time they start cracking down on house parties and enforcing covid regulations on younger people. They are costing lives, the health care system and the economy which we will all pay the price for.

They are not costing lives. People will die with or without Covid. Did you blame them for costing lives last year if they spread a flu to granny?

The health care system is fine.

It was our choice to crash the economy by locking down and implementing restrictions. The young will pay the tab.

_Kaiser_

Airyfairy12 wrote: »

Its about time they start cracking down on house parties and enforcing covid regulations on younger people. They are costing lives, the health care system and the economy which we will all pay the price for.

What lives are they costing? What negative effects are they having on the healthcare system and the economy?

They are the most likely NOT to need medical care even if they do catch it (and realise they caught it) and they are also the most likely to be affected by the loss of lower paid jobs

Those at actual risk from CV-19 (the elderly and/or those who have underlying medical issues) need to take responsibility for their own safety and well being with support of their GPs where needed. Limit contacts, maintain distance, take precautions. It's not the fault of the younger generation, although they usually are among the first to feel the effects when things go bad.

The Tetrarch

Deleted User wrote: »

People will die with or without Covid.

This is 100% correct.
People will die in car accidents and will not die in car accidents.
Taking precautions when driving will lessen the chance of an accident.
Taking precautions against the spread of Covid-19 will reduce the spread, and reduce the number of deaths from Covid-19.
That will not stop those people from death, but hopefully that will be after a long and happy life.

Russman

So how does this all play out over the next few months ?
On one hand you’ve got the “I’m alright jack” brigade who want everything opened up and think almost every country in world crashed their economies for the craic, and then you’ve the cautious who want a full lockdown reinstated. Where is the truth ?

Even though numbers are rising slowly, they’re still rising and it’s only a matter of time before we fill the ICU beds, what then ? Prof Nolan mentioned last night that cases in Dublin could double in 14 days. Even being generous and running that out to a month, you’re then in mid October. Let’s still be generous and give it another month before the elderly get the brunt of it - now it’s mid November. Are we potentially locked down for Christmas ? Do they do it now and try to get re-opened for Christmas, or do they try to muddle through until Christmas and then do it ? That’s obviously assuming peoples behaviours don’t change and we’ve seen little to suggest they will.

For me, I think another lockdown or whatever term is used, is almost inevitable, it’s just a question of when. It’s just a pity many people can’t be trusted to behave and do the right thing for a few months.

Airyfairy12

Theyre catching and spreading it, numbers are going up since schools reopened, deaths and hospitals admissions are going up too and flu season hasn't even started yet.
Allot of people who are high risk cant afford to take time off work to 'protect themselves', washing hands and wearing masks can only do so much and clearly is not working.

odyssey06

The Tetrarch wrote: »

This is 100% correct.
People will die in car accidents and will not die in car accidents.
Taking precautions when driving will lessen the chance of an accident.
Taking precautions against the spread of Covid-19 will reduce the spread, and reduce the number of deaths from Covid-19.
That will not stop those people from death, but hopefully that will be after a long and happy life.

Yep.
Same reason why we have drink driving laws, seatbelt laws, laws against smoking in public places.
People still going to die in car crashes, get lung cancer.
Doesn't mean the above are not worth doing.

To go along with the way everyone else has been about all elements of managing this, I'm going to say no because I live here and it doesn't suit me.

odyssey06

Russman wrote: »

Even though numbers are rising slowly, they’re still rising and it’s only a matter of time before we fill the ICU beds, what then ? Prof Nolan mentioned last night that cases in Dublin could double in 14 days. Even being generous and running that out to a month, you’re then in mid October. Let’s still be generous and give it another month before the elderly get the brunt of it - now it’s mid November. Are we potentially locked down for Christmas ? Do they do it now and try to get re-opened for Christmas, or do they try to muddle through until Christmas and then do it ? That’s obviously assuming peoples behaviours don’t change and we’ve seen little to suggest they will.

I wouldn't be surprised if we have something like a Phase 1+ level of restrictions nationwide from October mid-term, to throttle the virus and get it to very low levels.
Ease off at Christmas.
Back into Phase1+ in January.

Russman

Russman wrote: »

So how does this all play out over the next few months ?
On one hand you’ve got the “I’m alright jack” brigade who want everything opened up and think almost every country in world crashed their economies for the craic, and then you’ve the cautious who want a full lockdown reinstated. Where is the truth ?

Even though numbers are rising slowly, they’re still rising and it’s only a matter of time before we fill the ICU beds, what then ? Prof Nolan mentioned last night that cases in Dublin could double in 14 days. Even being generous and running that out to a month, you’re then in mid October. Let’s still be generous and give it another month before the elderly get the brunt of it - now it’s mid November. Are we potentially locked down for Christmas ? Do they do it now and try to get re-opened for Christmas, or do they try to muddle through until Christmas and then do it ? That’s obviously assuming peoples behaviours don’t change and we’ve seen little to suggest they will.

For me, I think another lockdown or whatever term is used, is almost inevitable, it’s just a question of when. It’s just a pity many people can’t be trusted to behave and do the right thing for a few months.

People are behaving. The airport would still be full every day if people weren't.

What people are doing is living. If we stop doing that... well then what is the point.

ixoy

odyssey06 wrote: »

I wouldn't be surprised if we have something like a Phase 1+ level of restrictions nationwide from October mid-term, to throttle the virus and get it to very low levels.

I'd be surprised as next to no country has done this at a national level.

I'd also think compliance would be poor. Maybe I'm being unfair to people but if many can't even follow the easy ones, I'm not sure they'd lock themselves in especially with the perception from some that it's weakened.

Airyfairy12

Airyfairy12 wrote: »

Theyre catching and spreading it, numbers are going up since schools reopened, deaths and hospitals admissions are going up too and flu season hasn't even started yet.
Allot of people who are high risk cant afford to take time off work to 'protect themselves', washing hands and wearing masks can only do so much and clearly is not working.

So kids are to blame for going to school?

Graham

Deleted User wrote: »

People are behaving. The airport would still be full every day if people weren't.

What people are doing is living. If we stop doing that... well then what is the point.

You're temporarily being asked to wash your hands, social distance and wear a mask.

douglashyde

The Tetrarch wrote: »

This is 100% correct.
People will die in car accidents and will not die in car accidents.
Taking precautions when driving will lessen the chance of an accident.
Taking precautions against the spread of Covid-19 will reduce the spread, and reduce the number of deaths from Covid-19.
That will not stop those people from death, but hopefully that will be after a long and happy life.

The median death age of COVID-19 is 83, the average life expectancy in Ireland is 82 and the overwhelming majority have health issues to begin with. Even at that, with rising cases; death rate & hospital loading is remaining extremely low.

I don't mean any disrespect, but I think what jacdaniel2014 meant was that individuals dying from CV19 are already at the end of their best years (as is the way of life). I of course believe taking as many precautions as possible to protect this at risk group, but using a blunt instrument like shutting down the capital has extreme downside loss but little upside benefit.

quokula

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

What lives are they costing? What negative effects are they having on the healthcare system and the economy?

They are the most likely NOT to need medical care even if they do catch it (and realise they caught it) and they are also the most likely to be affected by the loss of lower paid jobs

Those at actual risk from CV-19 (the elderly and/or those who have underlying medical issues) need to take responsibility for their own safety and well being with support of their GPs where needed. Limit contacts, maintain distance, take precautions. It's not the fault of the younger generation, although they usually are among the first to feel the effects when things go bad.

You're asking one section of society to completely lock themselves down and effectively be trapped in a prison cell for life, just so another section can act completely selfishly and recklessly.

It's up to everyone to act responsibly, so people who are vulnerable are able to go for a walk or go and do their weekly shop and generally live their life in safety.

It's not a big ask. You can go for a walk / cycle / drive, you can go to the park, you can go to the beach, you can meet up with friends safely, you can participate in sports and most hobbies, you can go to shops, restaurants, cinemas etc as long as you act responsibly and wear a mask appropriately. There's very little you're being asked not to do right now.

Just don't go to crowded parties and get blind drunk and lead us to a situation where we have to lock down again, possibly killing many people along the way.