All Covid-19 measures are permanent, don't be a boiling frog!

ShatterAlan

The Nal wrote: »

Source?

Are those sources good enough for you?


Universities, movements to monitor children and their feelings, vulnerabilities and weaknesses?



Would you like more sources? I'll get them for you if you wish.


Do you want sources about so many other things? Just tell me.

ShatterAlan

PintOfView wrote: »

If you read what I said I was talking about deaths, not cases.
March 2020 had a couple of hundred more deaths than average for March
April 2020 had about a thousand more deaths than average for April (3,500 vs 2,500 avg for Apr in prev 3 years)
May 2020 had a couple of hundred more deaths than avg for May
June, July, Aug, Sep were back to the average number of deaths you'd expect for those months.

My point was that the lockdown, starting in mid March, brought cases down over the following couple of months, and the number of deaths also came down.
April showed us what we could have been facing if we hadn't locked down.
It's pretty clear that the lockdown helped bring down cases, and excess deaths.

I don't know why cases went through the roof in December (my 'party time' remark was a bit presumptive)
However people didn't catch the virus from fresh air, they caught it from other people who had the virus already.
Where that transmission took place is not clear, and we can only speculate on the main sources.
Anecdotally some covid was spread from people visiting other houses, some parties did take place, perhaps shopping contributed, and other ways!

I was responding to your prev comment "why focus on April deaths when deaths for the rest of the months in the year were negligible?"
and trying to explain why deaths came down and stayed down for several months
(because people maintained sensible precautions from when we opened up in early summer)

A chart and a death toll was brought up regarding last April. It illustrated a spike in deaths.This was used to shutdown any discussion. Following on from that you mentioned that the rise in December was as a result or people intermingling during December (you have since said that you can't explain this and for that forthrightness).I commend you.

ShatterAlan

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

And we finally get there, No measures that have been bought in will be "permanent" and its took this long for one of you to finally admit it.

We may not agree on much but fair play for admitting this.

You asked me a question.


I answered it. I never maintained that all measures would be permanent. If you think or believe I did then the floor is yours to expose such.


I am not admitting to anything that you are attempting to swing at me. I was asked what restrictions might become permanent. I said to you that I'm not sure. If you take that as me capitulating, then that is your issue and wont, not mine.


You can argue all you want about a subject, but you're not arguing for yourself.

King Mob

ShatterAlan wrote: »

. I said to you that I'm not sure..

If you don't know what measures would be permanent, and don't even have the convinction to say might be, why do you think any might be?

Why, when you constantly have to be vague and noncommittal, should anyone take you seriously?

highdef

brianhere wrote: »

You seem to only tolerate simplistic answers, sometimes it requires going into in a little depth I am afraid! But it's only a small book, it won't bite you!

Answer the questions in your own words please.

The Nal

ShatterAlan wrote: »

https://www.sociaalwerknederland.nl/thema/corona-actueel/nieuws/9606-kindermishandeling-neemt-ernstig-toe-tijdens-lockdown?fbclid=IwAR1wUEP7YDvooWIHRIbvRX7aqtR2Fb5Q-cLZoaeobdFo8sYlCyBMLuGuIQw


https://avs.nl/actueel/nieuws/toename-kindermishandeling-tijdens-eerste-lockdown/?fbclid=IwAR1b7eQdWW8TX9Eun3QbiSkDwZIq22DWlgwoXDwUc8XrQBsqqxESA8leZZ8


https://www.kinderopvangtotaal.nl/kindermishandeling-neemt-ernstig-toe-tijdens-lockdown/?fbclid=IwAR2Zc5R9J7oG-mTgWWbunmPX79j95TUoDHBzOqyB2M36-oXUO_6_LBUdqfs


https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/nieuws/2021/01/tijdens-lockdown-meer-slachtoffers-van-kindermishandeling?fbclid=IwAR0hjgQZBkPYEsVPXC6LxPspdaLd2HaeHHVoZz0ECnxSreTIvTPYBjMrLFk




Now if you don't speak Dutch, read it or write it then I can help. Alternatively you can break out a dictionary or cut and paste into a translator.

Let me know if you want more.

A friend is a child psychologist here in the University of Utrecht.

Ah FFS. When you post "child abuse" you know what that refers to. When "educational neglect" is "child abuse" you have an agenda.

Thanks for posting though. Shows you up as the person you are.

Dohnjoe

Tea drinker wrote: »

inertia maybe? The new normal... that conspiracy theory politicians keep muttering about on TV will see many measures remain.

What measures will remain permanent and why?

sabat

The Nal wrote: »

Ah FFS. When you post "child abuse" you know what that refers to. When "educational neglect" is "child abuse" you have an agenda.

Thanks for posting though. Shows you up as the person you are.

This whole thing is a form of mass child abuse:

"Children in mental health crisis used to be brought to A&E about twice a week. Since the summer it's been more like once or twice a day. Some as young as 10 have cut themselves, taken overdoses, or tried to asphyxiate themselves.

There was even one child aged eight."

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55864573

King Mob

sabat wrote: »

This whole thing is a form of mass child abuse:

"Children in mental health crisis used to be brought to A&E about twice a week. Since the summer it's been more like once or twice a day. Some as young as 10 have cut themselves, taken overdoses, or tried to asphyxiate themselves.

There was even one child aged eight."

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55864573

So is the conspiracy to abuse kids or...?

Is this child abuse going to be permanent?

I take it what you've given up trying to claim the date rate is being exaggerated because you couldn't find anything to support this claim?
If this is the case, please at least have the spine to say so.
Or continue to ignore it.
Either way...

ShatterAlan

The Nal wrote: »

Ah FFS. When you post "child abuse" you know what that refers to. When "educational neglect" is "child abuse" you have an agenda.

Thanks for posting though. Shows you up as the person you are.

I don't have an agenda. I didn't write the articles or conduct the studies. Perhaps you should contact the University of Leiden and take it up with them.

sabat

King Mob wrote: »

So is the conspiracy to abuse kids or...?

Is this child abuse going to be permanent?

I take it what you've given up trying to claim the date rate is being exaggerated because you couldn't find anything to support this claim?
If this is the case, please at least have the spine to say so.
Or continue to ignore it.
Either way...

Someone who read that article I posted and responds like you did has something wrong with them...

Dohnjoe

sabat wrote: »

This whole thing is a form of mass child abuse:

"Children in mental health crisis used to be brought to A&E about twice a week. Since the summer it's been more like once or twice a day. Some as young as 10 have cut themselves, taken overdoses, or tried to asphyxiate themselves.

There was even one child aged eight."

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55864573

You claimed there is some "plan" behind all this, what is that plan?

EyesClosed

sabat wrote: »

Someone who read that article I posted and responds like you did has something wrong with them...

No you bringing all this up is deflection... What's permanent?

King Mob

sabat wrote: »

Someone who read that article I posted and responds like you did has something wrong with them...

I dunno, worse than using claims of child abuse to support a conspiracy theory they know full well is complete nonsense?

Like you know your previous claims were a lie. You've admitted as much by once again ignoring the calls to supply the evidence.
You know you can't answer any questions about your theory because it's all incoherent nonsense. You admit this every time you weasel away from any questions.

So why are you bringing up child abuse to defend this silly crap?
Why are you getting huffy when people point this contradiction out?

ShatterAlan

Dohnjoe wrote: »

You claimed there is some "plan" behind all this, what is that plan?

Nobody said anything about child abuse being planned or being made permanent. The subject was brought up and sources were provided. Are you deliberately trying to be awkward?

King Mob

ShatterAlan wrote: »

Nobody said anything about child abuse being planned or being made permanent. The subject was brought up and sources were provided. Are you deliberately trying to be awkward?

So if it doesn't have anything to do with the topic, why bring it up?

Also again, why bring up the serious topic of child abuse in a discussion of a silly fantasy that none of you guys even seem to believe is real and know is complete bull****?

Dohnjoe

ShatterAlan wrote: »

Nobody said anything about child abuse being planned or being made permanent. The subject was brought up and sources were provided. Are you deliberately trying to be awkward?

Some posters repeatedly deny and attack facts as part of a contrarian act, but they are careful to "sit on the fence" because they know they don't have any logical or objective basis for that.

In this case the poster has been denying and nitpicking details about the lockdown because they claim there is a "plan" in play. Which begs the question, what is that plan. Then there's still the pending question to everyone, which measures will be permanent and why, which no one can seem to answer.

The Nal

ShatterAlan wrote: »

Nobody said anything about child abuse being planned or being made permanent. The subject was brought up and sources were provided. Are you deliberately trying to be awkward?

Yeah, you brought it up. Why? Whats the conspiracy?

ShatterAlan

The Nal wrote: »

Yeah, you brought it up. Why? Whats the conspiracy?

I mentioned it in passing. I never once stated that child abuse or neglect was part of a conspiracy, nor did I link any such things to permanent measures.

King Mob

ShatterAlan wrote: »

I mentioned it in passing. I never once stated that child abuse or neglect was part of a conspiracy, nor did I link any such things to permanent measures.

So it has nothing to do with the topic.

What measures are going to be permanent?

arccosh

maybe his dutch friends know

GT89

So the Sputnik vaccine appears to be the safest and most effective vaccine. It has been around since August but the usual Russia= bad narrative from Western governments means we haven't seen approved yet. We could be back to normal by now and lives could have been saved if it were approved but unfortunately anti Russia politics was more important.

arccosh

incorrect...

it wasn't adopted because it hadn't been through tier3 trials yet (the part where you see all the major effects if any)...

Russia used their "rollout" as tier 3 trials.... and we're only seeing the data from it now...

to which a number of western countries have placed orders for the vaccine...

sure Germany are looking to partner with Russia to create a manufacturing plant for the vaccine variant

I take it you haven't heard of the possible AstroSputnik partnership yet either?

Next bull**** theory please.

ShatterAlan

I was in the Vondelpark today in Amsterdam.



The place was rammed. Kids making snowmen, sledding, parents all drinking gluhwein, hugging, snowball fights, etc.


But yeah.....a curfew is helping. A lockdown is helping.


[next post] "but cold weather kills this virus!"

King Mob

ShatterAlan wrote: »

I was in the Vondelpark today in Amsterdam.



The place was rammed. Kids making snowmen, sledding, parents all drinking gluhwein, hugging, snowball fights, etc.


But yeah.....a curfew is helping. A lockdown is helping.


[next post] "but cold weather kills this virus!"

Ok. So how does this help your case?

If people aren't following the measures now, why would they follow any permanently?

Which measures do you think will be permanent?

CalamariFritti

In Germany there is a story running in Die Welt about spring last year and how the home office (Innenmninsterium) worked with the RKI and other institutes and scientists to produce a 'shock model' which was then communicated to the general population through the leading media.

Die Welt has 200 pages of internal communication between high ranking home office staff and those institutes that suggest a certain outcome of those models were desired as they were planning to prepare the population logistically and mentally for repressive measures.

Leading to a worst case shock scenario in which 57 million Germans get infected in a short space of time and 1 million would die.

In other words those worst case models weren't the best thing they knew at the time. And it was understandable that we needed to be careful. And what choice did the poor politicians have? No those worst case models were actually ordered by the government.

Class A conspiracy theory only it appears to be actually true.

Fighting Tao

CalamariFritti wrote: »

In Germany there is a story running in Die Welt about spring last year and how the home office (Innenmninsterium) worked with the RKI and other institutes and scientists to produce a 'shock model' which was then communicated to the general population through the leading media.

Die Welt has 200 pages of internal communication between high ranking home office staff and those institutes that suggest a certain outcome of those models were desired as they were planning to prepare the population logistically and mentally for repressive measures.

Leading to a worst case shock scenario in which 57 million Germans get infected in a short space of time and 1 million would die.

In other words those worst case models weren't the best thing they knew at the time. And it was understandable that we needed to be careful. And what choice did the poor politicians have? No those worst case models were actually ordered by the government.

Class A conspiracy theory only it appears to be actually true.

Every business and government has plans for worst case scenarios. It could be referred to as disaster planning, or a business continuity plan. It would be negligent for governments not to do it.

runawaybishop

CalamariFritti wrote: »

In Germany there is a story running in Die Welt about spring last year and how the home office (Innenmninsterium) worked with the RKI and other institutes and scientists to produce a 'shock model' which was then communicated to the general population through the leading media.

Die Welt has 200 pages of internal communication between high ranking home office staff and those institutes that suggest a certain outcome of those models were desired as they were planning to prepare the population logistically and mentally for repressive measures.

Leading to a worst case shock scenario in which 57 million Germans get infected in a short space of time and 1 million would die.

In other words those worst case models weren't the best thing they knew at the time. And it was understandable that we needed to be careful. And what choice did the poor politicians have? No those worst case models were actually ordered by the government.

Class A conspiracy theory only it appears to be actually true.

Huh? That's not a conspiracy? We did the same thing, it's prudent to make it clear what could happen if no action is taken.

CalamariFritti

Fighting Tao wrote: »

Every business and government has plans for worst case scenarios. It could be referred to as disaster planning, or a business continuity plan. It would be negligent for governments not to do it.

Yes there is that but it appears there was direct strong influence on what was then presented as independent scientific models to the population to justify hard measures like lockdowns. These weren't hypothetical worst case scenarios for the year X drawer.

PintOfView

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Yes there is that but it appears there was direct strong influence on what was then presented as independent scientific models to the population to justify hard measures like lockdowns. These weren't hypothetical worst case scenarios for the year X drawer.

A million people dying from 57 million infected is about 2%
If I remember correctly this was the approximate mortality rate that was being bandied about when it started first, so it's not too surprising that that's the number they were using for a worst case scenario.

As time went on it became clear that the elderly were disproportionately at risk of dying, while the risk was dramatically lower the more you went under 60.

As regards the overall case fatality rate (number of deaths / number of confirmed cases) it seems to vary between 1% - 3%.
See https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..latest&country=OWID_WRL~USA~ITA~BRA~ESP~SWE~DEU~IND~IRN~KOR~NZL&region=World&cfrMetric=true&interval=total&aligned=true&hideControls=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc
However if we assume that not everyone who gets Covid will be tested (and be positive) then the real mortality rate will be lower than that, perhaps a good bit lower, but it's hard to find a good estimate for the real figure.

In the absence of such an estimate we can take excess mortality (deaths over and above what you would expect) as an indicator of what to expect if we didn't take counter measures.

The US CDC has a good graph that shows the weekly excess mortality clearly - see https://public.tableau.com/profile/dataviz8737#!/vizhome/COVID_excess_mort_withcauses_01272021/WeeklyExcessDeaths
If we're trying to figure out if the risks are exaggerated then this should be useful information!

When you say "Class A conspiracy theory only it appears to be actually true." don't you think that's a bit overstated!
If you were the minister for health in Germany what would you have done, in light of what you would have known at that time?