All Covid-19 measures are permanent, don't be a boiling frog!

CalamariFritti

PintOfView wrote: »

A million people dying from 57 million infected is about 2%
If I remember correctly this was the approximate mortality rate that was being bandied about when it started first, so it's not too surprising that that's the number they were using for a worst case scenario.

As time went on it became clear that the elderly were disproportionately at risk of dying, while the risk was dramatically lower the more you went under 60.

As regards the overall case fatality rate (number of deaths / number of confirmed cases) it seems to vary between 1% - 3%.
See https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..latest&country=OWID_WRL~USA~ITA~BRA~ESP~SWE~DEU~IND~IRN~KOR~NZL&region=World&cfrMetric=true&interval=total&aligned=true&hideControls=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc
However if we assume that not everyone who gets Covid will be tested (and be positive) then the real mortality rate will be lower than that, perhaps a good bit lower, but it's hard to find a good estimate for the real figure.

In the absence of such an estimate we can take excess mortality (deaths over and above what you would expect) as an indicator of what to expect if we didn't take counter measures.

The US CDC has a good graph that shows the weekly excess mortality clearly - see https://public.tableau.com/profile/dataviz8737#!/vizhome/COVID_excess_mort_withcauses_01272021/WeeklyExcessDeaths
If we're trying to figure out if the risks are exaggerated then this should be useful information!

When you say "Class A conspiracy theory only it appears to be actually true." don't you think that's a bit overstated!
If you were the minister for health in Germany what would you have done, in light of what you would have known at that time?

You're missing the point. It was not done in light of what was known at the time. What was to be presented as 'what we know at the time' was doctored. Governments already had their mind made up what they wanted to do. Which drove or at least heavily influenced the statement from the science brigade. Not the other way around.

Now whether that was done in good faith at the time nobody will ever know. But it immediately escalated the whole thing to a point where there was no easy return or no return at all. Setting us up for years of this nonsense.

PintOfView

CalamariFritti wrote: »

You're missing the point. It was not done in light of what was known at the time. What was to be presented as 'what we know at the time' was doctored. Governments already had their mind made up what they wanted to do. Which drove or at least heavily influenced the statement from the science brigade. Not the other way around.

Now whether that was done in good faith at the time nobody will ever know. But it immediately escalated the whole thing to a point where there was no easy return or no return at all. Setting us up for years of this nonsense.

I'm not sure I'd go along with "Governments already had their minds made up what they wanted to do"
Looking at what was happening in China at the time (they build a new 1,000 bed hospital in a couple of weeks), and in Italy (we all saw the army carrying coffins), it wasn't a strange way for governments to react!
And I can't see that the governments had the idea to do this first, then came the reason?

As regards "it immediately escalated the whole thing to a point where there was no easy return or no return at all. Setting us up for years of this nonsense"
Again, I can't see how it's the governments escalating this, to me it's the virus escalating it!
If a government did nothing, and the army in that country had to lend a hand to carry coffins, what do you think the population would say? Would that government get elected the next time?

They only way I can see to have not 'escalated' this is to have accepted there would be a high mortality rate for older people, with a lower mortality as the age decreased, and then to have proposed that these deaths were worth it to retain a sense of normality, and also to have said that it wouldn't be possible to treat all covid patients in hospitals so as to save the hospitals from getting overrun.

Would that be your opinion? Or is there another way to interpret all this?

CalamariFritti

So explain to me why if this was so self evident the science statement needed to be 'tailored'?

runawaybishop

CalamariFritti wrote: »

So explain to me why if this was so self evident the science statement needed to be 'tailored'?

Can you link the initial report about this? It wouldn't be weird for a government to ask for a worst case scenario, what are you claiming they did?

PintOfView

CalamariFritti wrote: »

So explain to me why if this was so self evident the science statement needed to be 'tailored'?

I haven't seen the 'tailored' scientific statements so it's hard to judge them.
However it doesn't seem to me that anything needed to be tailored at the time in order to demonstrate the seriousness of the situation.
I would support people getting their knuckles rapped for doing anything with scientific evidence other that presenting it as is.

CalamariFritti

runawaybishop wrote: »

Can you link the initial report about this? It wouldn't be weird for a government to ask for a worst case scenario, what are you claiming they did?

Unfortunately there are several articles some of them short and the ones that aren't are behind a pay wall or in print only. But its making waves beyond DieWelt.

Here is one anyway: https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article225864597/Interner-E-Mail-Verkehr-Innenministerium-spannte-Wissenschaftler-ein.html

runawaybishop

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Unfortunately there are several articles some of them short and the ones that aren't are behind a pay wall or in print only. But its making waves beyond DieWelt.

Here is one anyway: https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article225864597/Interner-E-Mail-Verkehr-Innenministerium-spannte-Wissenschaftler-ein.html

There is nothing unusual in that article though, I don't understand what claim you are making.

According to the correspondence, the scientists worked in close coordination with the ministry in just four days to develop content for a paper that had been declared secret, which was distributed via various media over the following days.

A “worst-case scenario” was calculated according to which more than a million people in Germany could die of the coronavirus if social life were to continue as it was before the pandemic.

CalamariFritti

How can you not see anything strange here?

A new virus pops up. Am I naive in thinking that the dangerousness of this should be evaluated by science and the politics take their input and formulate a response? Am I naive in thinking that politics formulating a response and then asking science to back it up with worst case models is kinda the cart before the horse?

Fighting Tao

CalamariFritti wrote: »

How can you not see anything strange here?

A new virus pops up. Am I naive in thinking that the dangerousness of this should be evaluated by science and the politics take their input and formulate a response? Am I naive in thinking that politics formulating a response and then asking science to back it up with worst case models is kinda the cart before the horse?

You do realise that it takes time to study a new virus and all indications was that it was very deadly and so a political response was needed immediately?

King Mob

CalamariFritti wrote: »

How can you not see anything strange here?

A new virus pops up. Am I naive in thinking that the dangerousness of this should be evaluated by science and the politics take their input and formulate a response? Am I naive in thinking that politics formulating a response and then asking science to back it up with worst case models is kinda the cart before the horse?

And yet, we have people in this forum saying all of the science is wrong with everything from the virus isn't real to the virus is a bioweapon to depopulate the planet.

And even then and governments had done with you are suggesting and not responded until everything was known, then we'd have people claiming that the government should have acted quicker and prepared for the worst case scenario.
And the conspiracies would be that the government isn't doing anything cause the virus is super deadly and a plot to kill everyone etc. etc.

CalamariFritti

There is that. No matter what you do someone will accuse you of something.

But doesnt mean we shouldn't be poking at things that smell off. Gotta keep them honest or at least try. And this one does smell off. Considering it made it into main stream media over there I cant be the only person who thinks that.

King Mob

CalamariFritti wrote: »

There is that. No matter what you do someone will accuse you of something.

But doesnt mean we shouldn't be poking at things that smell off. Gotta keep them honest or at least try. And this one does smell off. Considering it made it into main stream media over there I cant be the only person who thinks that.

What smells off?
Why specifically is it suspicious and what do you believe is actually going on?

If all you have is a vague feeling of suspicion that you can't elaborate on or substantiate, how is your claim different or better than the claims about depopulation and fake viruses?

EyesClosed

CalamariFritti wrote: »

There is that. No matter what you do someone will accuse you of something.

But doesnt mean we shouldn't be poking at things that smell off. Gotta keep them honest or at least try. And this one does smell off. Considering it made it into main stream media over there I cant be the only person who thinks that.

What does any of this have to do with all covid measures being permanent?

Nobody has answered that yet... Not one person

sabat

EyesClosed wrote: »

What does any of this have to do with all covid measures being permanent?

Nobody has answered that yet... Not one person

This week Leo Varadkar stated that armed guards will be outside quarantine centres holding innocent healthy citizens. It barely registered with the public. "Vaccine passports" chatter and the slow-burning propagandising towards forced medication is being increasingly normalised in the media. 10 months ago anyone talking about those two things was called a lunatic.
If you haven't noticed the water being eased up towards boiling point, I'm sorry but you are one of the frogs if the thread title.

EyesClosed

sabat wrote: »

This week Leo Varadkar stated that armed guards will be outside quarantine centres holding innocent healthy citizens. It barely registered with the public. "Vaccine passports" chatter and the slow-burning propagandising towards forced medication is being increasingly normalised in the media. 10 months ago anyone talking about those two things was called a lunatic.
If you haven't noticed the water being eased up towards boiling point, I'm sorry but you are one of the frogs if the thread title.

Source?
Also you know there's a global pandemic right?
54 people died yesterday....

King Mob

sabat wrote: »

This week Leo Varadkar stated that armed guards will be outside quarantine centres holding innocent healthy citizens. It barely registered with the public. "Vaccine passports" chatter and the slow-burning propagandising towards forced medication is being increasingly normalised in the media. 10 months ago anyone talking about those two things was called a lunatic.
If you haven't noticed the water being eased up towards boiling point, I'm sorry but you are one of the frogs if the thread title.

And again, no source or context.

You and other conspiracy theorists have been caught out in lies and misrepresentations over and over and over again. Yet you keep doing the same thing.

Show your source for "Leo Varadkar stated that armed guards will be outside quarantine centres holding innocent healthy citizens".

Show something other than your imagination and wllingness to distort reality and outright lie.

And again, maybe you could actually address the point of the thread.
What measures are going to be permanent?
Why?
And how do you know?

You've still not been able to answer those questions.
If you can't, why not just admit it?

PintOfView

sabat wrote: »

This week Leo Varadkar stated that armed guards will be outside quarantine centres holding innocent healthy citizens. It barely registered with the public. "Vaccine passports" chatter and the slow-burning propagandising towards forced medication is being increasingly normalised in the media. 10 months ago anyone talking about those two things was called a lunatic.
If you haven't noticed the water being eased up towards boiling point, I'm sorry but you are one of the frogs if the thread title.

I am surprised that anyone would think armed guards would be required!

However I do think that enforcing a strict quarantine is required, both for those that wouldn't do it voluntarily, and to discourage people like those who went on foreign holidays this past month (and risk bringing back the virus, or even a new strain)!

When you say "quarantine centres holding innocent healthy citizens", how do you know none of those people have the virus?

If you are against the quarantine, and lockdowns, etc., what is your alternative?

Do you believe we should just do the following:
- forget about the virus
- open up, get back to normal
- tell anyone who gets covid they need to stay away from hospitals as there wouldn't be capacity
- take the subsequent deaths on the chin, and say that's the price you're willing to pay (they will be skewed towards the older age groups)

sabat

King Mob wrote: »

And again, no source or context.

You and other conspiracy theorists have been caught out in lies and misrepresentations over and over and over again. Yet you keep doing the same thing.

Show your source for "Leo Varadkar stated that armed guards will be outside quarantine centres holding innocent healthy citizens".

Show something other than your imagination and wllingness to distort reality and outright lie.

And again, maybe you could actually address the point of the thread.
What measures are going to be permanent?
Why?
And how do you know?

You've still not been able to answer those questions.
If you can't, why not just admit it?

It took me about 10 seconds to Google the words Varadkar armed guards quarantine...

CalamariFritti

King Mob wrote: »

What smells off?
Why specifically is it suspicious and what do you believe is actually going on?

If all you have is a vague feeling of suspicion that you can't elaborate on or substantiate, how is your claim different or better than the claims about depopulation and fake viruses?

It casts doubt over the assumption that what is being done is in our best interest. I would read it as an attempt at getting your retaliation in first if you like. Just in case someone looks at the actual numbers and goes hold on a sec here. Which coincides nicely with the refusal of governments to conduct representative testing. We'd rather mess around with test numbers and parameters all the time keeping it nice and foggy. After one year that is not sloppiness or coincidence. One has to assume it doesnt suit for some reason.

What the motive behind all that is would be another question. I cant say I have a neat theory. For the record I dont think its 5G Bill Gates the great reset the lizard people. Although what do they say? Never waste a good crisis?

Just couldnt find a better thread is all.

King Mob

sabat wrote: »

It took me about 10 seconds to Google the words Varadkar armed guards quarantine...

Cool.
Back up your claims for a change.
Answer some questions.

Stop running away.

But if you can't do that, and evidence is that you can't.
Ask yourself, why do you have to?

King Mob

CalamariFritti wrote: »

It casts doubt over the assumption that what is being done is in our best interest.

Ok.
What's the benefit then?
What's this based on?

CalamariFritti wrote: »

What the motive behind all that is would be another question. I cant say I have a neat theory.

So you have no idea what the motive could be.

You can't even propose one saner than the ones being promoted by conspiracy theorists.

So maybe there isn't one?
Maybe the reason you can't provide a motive is that there isn't an ulterior motive and your suspicions are just wrong?

PintOfView

CalamariFritti wrote: »

It casts doubt over the assumption that what is being done is in our best interest. I would read it as an attempt at getting your retaliation in first if you like. Just in case someone looks at the actual numbers and goes hold on a sec here. Which coincides nicely with the refusal of governments to conduct representative testing. We'd rather mess around with test numbers and parameters all the time keeping it nice and foggy. After one year that is not sloppiness or coincidence. One has to assume it doesnt suit for some reason.

What the motive behind all that is would be another question. I cant say I have a neat theory. For the record I dont think its 5G Bill Gates the great reset the lizard people. Although what do they say? Never waste a good crisis?

Just couldnt find a better thread is all.

What about the wider context?

Do you believe that more people than normal died before the lockdowns were imposed?
Do you believe that more people than normal have died every week since last April in the US, for eg?

Do you think the threat from the virus is real, or exaggerated, or not real?
What do you think would be a proportionate response to the virus from governments?

CalamariFritti

King Mob wrote: »

Ok.
What's the benefit then?
What's this based on?


So you have no idea what the motive could be.

You can't even propose one saner than the ones being promoted by conspiracy theorists.

So maybe there isn't one?
Maybe the reason you can't provide a motive is that there isn't an ulterior motive and your suspicions are just wrong?

Sure its possible there isn't one. Its also possible there is.

Whats your line here then? Are you advocating that we should accept everything cos they would never lie to us and if something's off we should immediately look the other way cos nothing to see here?

CalamariFritti

PintOfView wrote: »

What about the wider context?

Do you believe that more people than normal died before the lockdowns were imposed?
Do you believe that more people than normal have died every week since last April in the US, for eg?

Do you think the threat from the virus is real, or exaggerated, or not real?
What do you think would be a proportionate response to the virus from governments?

I believe the virus is real of course I also believe it is a threat (of sorts). It is hard to quantify how big a threat since that information has consistently been messed with. And with messed with yes I mean exaggerated.

It can be an individual threat for some unfortunate people, thankfully very few. It can be a threat to society as we can all watch and see right this moment. It can be threat to a health system as we have observed. An actual public health threat on a macro scale? Not really. The numbers dont give that and they havent done so for a while or ever.

King Mob

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Sure its possible there isn't one. Its also possible there is.

Possible, but given how you can't even speculate on it, never mind give even a shred of evidence, not likely.
It's about as likely as the conspiracy claims about depopulation and secret nanotech. The difference there is at least they are proposing something.

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Whats your line here then? Are you advocating that we should accept everything cos they would never lie to us and if something's off we should immediately look the other way cos nothing to see here?

lol misrepresentation.
Of course I'm not saying that.

I'm saying that you shouldn't pay much attention to vague, unsupported nonsensical crap you read on the internet.

PintOfView

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I believe the virus is real of course I also believe it is a threat (of sorts). It is hard to quantify how big a threat since that information has consistently been messed with. And with messed with yes I mean exaggerated.

It can be an individual threat for some unfortunate people, thankfully very few. It can be a threat to society as we can all watch and see right this moment. It can be threat to a health system as we have observed. An actual public health threat on a macro scale? Not really. The numbers dont give that and they havent done so for a while or ever.

When you say the numbers don't support a public health threat on a macro scale,
are you taking about the numbers post lockdown, which, in Ireland, came back to normal for a few months?
or the numbers that you would expect if there was no lockdown?

King Mob

CalamariFritti wrote: »

And with messed with yes I mean exaggerated.

Ok.
What are the real numbers?

CalamariFritti

King Mob wrote: »

Ok.
What are the real numbers?

Lets just go there for a moment. Numbers. No mad conspiracy stuff, just observations.

Testing strategy varies wildly. Gets changed all the time. Number of tests. Who qualifies. Scope of mass testing. Scope of contact tracing. Testing goes up and down like a fiddlers elbow.

So how in gods name are we ever going to compare one number in a timeline against another number on a different date?

But yet we come up with these case number on which apparently everything hangs. But they are arbitrary to a large degree if you keep changing all the time.

The only thing we know is that whatever way we test we never get everyone. I assume we can agree that the true number of infections is smaller than the reported number?

So what is the true number? You would have to do representative testing to find out. Which for some reason we havent done in a year now.

Then there is the number of asymptomatcis. The pre-existing immunity crowd. Another very important figure that only could be gotten to by representative testing.

All that is vital information to assess the seriousness of the situation and also for health service planning. All the IFRs and CFRs and Rs and whatnot depend on it.

But nobody seems to care about these pieces of information when to me it seems you couldnt really do anything with substance before you know these numbers. A year into this ignorance of this can no longer be explained by overwhelmed or we didnt get to it yet. A year into it its clear they dont want to know.

King Mob

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Lets just go there for a moment. Numbers. No mad conspiracy stuff, just observations.

So no, you can't provide more accurate numbers.

Fair enough. Could have just said that.

And yes, you are suggesting mad conspiracy stuff.
Claiming that there is a global effort to exaggerate the numbers is a conspiracy theory.
Claiming this with no evidence or even a coherent theory behind it is a bit mad.

ThunbergsAreGo

EyesClosed wrote: »

Source?
Also you know there's a global pandemic right?
54 people died yesterday....

As callous as this sounds, people die. It is one of the few constants in people lives.

Over 9,000 people a year die from Cancer - and average of 24 per day and a figure likely to increase due to lockdowns etc. Why are people dying from Covid more important?