Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

Arghus

Arghus wrote: »

There's been an enormous economic hit, but the country isn't quite "on its knees" - the contraction of 6% got everyone's attention, but to put it in context the contraction in average GDP across the Eurozone was 12%. The story that our economy is fundamentally more thrashed than many other economies isn't really true if you look at the actual figures.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/negative-narrative-around-irish-economy-is-fundamental-misreading-1.4351777?mode=amp

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/john-fitzgerald-economy-shows-resilience-in-teeth-of-pandemic-1.4351817?mode=amp

Just to be clear, again, I don't predict another lockdown - everything else will be done to avoid it first, but to totally dismiss it all possible circumstances is to be naive. There's always a possibility, even if it seems remote. It's already been done, it can be done again. It would be a disaster, a complete failure that will hopefully never come to pass - but if, somehow, we find ourselves back in a situation like March, don't be surprised. The government wouldn't have thought they could afford to do it then either, but they had to in the end because they had no choice.

The biggest problem is... what happens if we lockdown again and then the need just arises again and again?

If there was a lockdown, would we slowly reopen the country again over a few months? Or would we open everything much quicker this time?

Regardless, if cases rise again, which they likely will, what then?

I’ve said from the start that either a vaccine arrives very soon or our resources run out and we have to let Covid run it’s course.

Lockdown will do nothing but delay it. And it might not even do that too successfully now that people want to socialise again.

Dressoutlet

Does anyone know the total amount of tests that have been done in Ireland so far

caveat emptor

Arghus wrote: »

It's a bit laughable when they say it simply won't happen, no matter what - if they've tried everything else and nothing is working and the hospitals are filling up, then, of course, they'll have to hit the lockdown button.

Now, please don't confuse that as me thinking it's likely. I believe they'll try absolutely everything else beforehand - full lockdown would really be the absolute no other option option and I think we've a few tools to use before we get there. And I don't think the situation is comparable to March, when we had an epidemic of unknown size and severity and quick action was the only option.

.....
the totally predictable strain put on our testing and tracing system the instant that schools went back and to top it all off a lack of leadership and purpose from the government which has increasingly become distracted by shortsighted political expediency. Oh, and Winter on the way too. It's all perfectly poised for a potential shit show - but, hey, maybe it won't happen?

Leo's plan is progressing nicely. I'm always sceptical when Leo starts making loads of noise and MM is nowhere to be seen. Simon Harris chipping in and talking as if he had his old job. Stephen Donnelly has gone to ground. None of these signals are good. Leo know's if cases get bad enough and hospital becomes under pressure the only tool left is a lockdown. He is a doctor after all and probably understands that if triage overwhelmed many more unnecessary deaths will occur. He wasn't around last time bad news was announced. Coming out and saying "we can't lockdown" does two things.

• Put's pressure on MM
• Sets him up for next election
• distances himself from the political damage

Primary schools are open only 2 weeks, secondary 1 week. They clearly don't have a plan if numbers rise in these settings. FF going against NPHET is a panic measure. The trend is fairly clear.

This is from 3 weeks ago......

caveat emptor wrote: »

The are going to pull the rug from under MM when the cases are high enough or when schools have to close.

Undermining public health experts to boot.

I'll never vote for them again. Disgraceful carryon. They can have their fight to the death after this ****e is done.

drunkmonkey

Always_Running wrote: »

Any concrete evidence that the so called herd immunity plan works? even Sweden seemed to have given up on that strategy.

Very good interview, to sum it up, it's over...there will be no second wave.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Su0wMysBYPM

caveat emptor

Uk testing capacity reached it seems. I'd say their numbers are underestimated if people can't get tests.
I'm not advocating for lockdown. Nobody wants that. Would be good if we had a workable plan instead of watching cases rise.

https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/1304671491787837441?s=20

petes

Vivienne23 wrote: »

The test was quick and painless , a sensation on the nasal swab but only a drama queen would make something of it

Call bull**** on this. Unless it's performed differently by different people.

Had a test when in hospital a couple of weeks ago and it was extremely uncomfortable and I'm not a drama queen either. I'd also have a high enough threshold for pain. Everyone else I spoke to said the same.

But maybe it is down to who is doing the test. I'd still get another if needed.

shinzon

Ireland is "well into a second wave" of COVID-19, according to an infectious disease expert.

Paddy Mallon, Professor of Microbial Disease at UCD and Consultant in infectious disease at St Vincent’s Hospital said that it is not yet clear what the impact of that second wave will be.

Speaking on The Pat Kenny Show, he said: "As a country, we're pretty well into what could be described as a second wave of COVID-19 infection.

"A lot of debate is what the consequences of that second wave will be, the bottom line is that we just don't know.

Shin

drunkmonkey

shinzon wrote: »

Shin

Were just finishing the first wave we interrupted, there is no second wave. All the charts are built around the population having 0 resistance to begin with, that's now becoming flawed logic. See my post above.

lee_baby_simms

shinzon wrote: »

Shin

Great news. We’re well into the dreaded second wave with next to no deaths. Why isn’t this being taken as a positive?

Let me guess. “Wait a couple of weeks. The next two weeks are critical.”

manniot2

Great article from Dr Martin Feeney in the Irish times today. Unfortunately we have invested so much wasted time and money at this stage, nobody will listen.

caveat emptor

Would be great if no deaths continued. We'll find out. Hopefully immunity is durable but a lot more people will have to get sick. It's too early to tell if herd immunity is being approached. It's following Spain though and spreading to more vulnerable age groups here.

https://twitter.com/alanmrice/status/1304145154295595009?s=20

wadacrack

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Were just finishing the first wave we interrupted, there is no second wave. All the charts are built around the population having 0 resistance to begin with, that's now becoming flawed logic. See my post above.

That's true but its not a big number maybe about 5% being a high estimate. In any population sample the virus has continued to spread pretty significantly. IN US prisons it was up to 60% of the population. The Diamond Princess it continued spreading at a high rate. T cell/cross immunity likely to play some factor as their have been examples of people being in close prolonged proximity to a confirmed case and testing negative but it does not seem to be a high number.

wadacrack

Good thread . I see more similarities here with New York than Spain


https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1304424019450630144

drunkmonkey

wadacrack wrote: »

That's true but its not a big number maybe about 5% being a high estimate. In any population sample the virus has continued to spread pretty significantly. IN US prisons it was up to 60% of the population. The Diamond Princess it continued spreading at a high rate. T cell/cross immunity likely to play some factor as their have been examples of people being in close prolonged proximity to a confirmed case and testing negative but it does not seem to be a high number.

Some are estimating 50% due to us having caught other coronaviruses.

drunkmonkey

wadacrack wrote: »

Good thread . I see more similarities here with New York than Spain


https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1304424019450630144

Spain had a brutal lockdown.

Eod100

Senior health officials seem fairly concerned and are briefing RTE with this. Hopefully government are listening to their concerns. https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1304691666528489472?s=19

Dionaibh

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Very good interview, to sum it up, it's over...there will be no second wave.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Su0wMysBYPM

Of course it's over, and has been over for ages, but I think that people like living through a so-called pandemic because they see themselves as surviving against all the odds. It never ends because of the bizarre obsession with cases. Amazing to think that 1.5 million people die OF TB every year yet life carries on as normal.

DangerScouse

Eod100 wrote: »

Senior health officials seem fairly concerned and are briefing RTE with this. Hopefully government are listening to their concerns. https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1304691666528489472?s=19

I fear they are not and we are headed to a very dark place this winter.

drunkmonkey

Eod100 wrote: »

Senior health officials seem fairly concerned and are briefing RTE with this. Hopefully government are listening to their concerns. https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1304691666528489472?s=19

Anonymous person expresses concern in shock horror. It's a nothing burger of an article, if your over 65 be on your guard as all the young ones are getting it.

Dionaibh

DangerScouse wrote: »

I fear they are not and we are headed to a very dark place this winter.

But why no dark place for other illnesses that are far more dangerous than Covid? Why no dark place for cancer, for example? Why the focus on Covid only?

is_that_so

Piece on RTE on contact tracers' work.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0911/1164695-contact-tracing/

is_that_so

douglashyde wrote: »

‘Draconian’ restrictions around Covid-19 condemned by HSE doctor
via The Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/draconian-restrictions-around-covid-19-condemned-by-hse-doctor-1.4352701

Not sure if this has been shared - well put and makes use of the actual data available. Articles like this will go a long way to change people’s perceptions.

Paper loves ink and a contrary opinion. Stopped reading when I saw herd immunity. Herd immunity is a bit of an unachievable fantasy and it's really not a helpful way to keep people onside with the right kind of behaviours.

caveat emptor

wadacrack wrote: »

Good thread . I see more similarities here with New York than Spain


https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1304424019450630144

That’s interesting. What was different between the two? Someone said NY doesn’t allow eating indoors. They also had quarantine and fines for out of state visitors. Spain being dependent on tourism did not. Spanish people go on holidays to the same places as inter national visitors and potentially brought it back with them.

Italy were doing very well but now increasing again.

is_that_so

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Some are estimating 50% due to us having caught other coronaviruses.

In the absence of a clear understanding this is all a bit like David Bowie writing songs. Toss all the "data" up in the air and reassemble it as you wish because it can neither be proved nor disproved.

Dionaibh

is_that_so wrote: »

In the absence of a clear understanding this is all a bit like David Bowie writing songs. Toss all the "data" up in the air and reassemble it as you wish because it can neither be proved nor disproved.

But would you be happy if it was proven to be true?

wadacrack

caveat emptor wrote: »

That’s interesting. What was different between the two? Someone said NY doesn’t allow eating indoors. They also had quarantine and fines for out of state visitors. Spain being dependent on tourism did not. Spanish people go on holidays to the same places as inter national visitors and potentially brought it back with them.

Italy were doing very well but now increasing again.

Yea I think the travel/holiday's was the biggest factor. New York strict protocol's on travel has meant they are in a far better position atm

is_that_so

Dionaibh wrote: »

But would you be happy if it was proven to be true?

It would further our knowledge which these wild guesses do not. That's a good thing.

drunkmonkey

is_that_so wrote: »

It would further our knowledge which these wild guesses do not. That's a good thing.

Well we wild guessed that there was 0 immunity out there and are still following the same charts, think that concept has been blown out of the water, most people don't even react to catching it, in others it's mild and extreme cases require hospitalisations, as with all the other coronaviruses circulating at the moment we seem to have resistance to it.

drunkmonkey

My thinking now is Leo is well aware of what's happening and will use it to blow MM out of the water, the modelling is wrong and he knows it.

is_that_so

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Well we wild guessed that there was 0 immunity out there and are still following the same charts, think that concept has been blown out of the water, most people don't even react to catching it, in others it's mild and extreme cases require hospitalisations, as with all the other coronaviruses circulating at the moment we seem to have resistance to it.

Sure, but while it's the usual p!ssing contest there's little to no science involved. We went with a blunt approach initially, rightly IMO, it did the job but we can't do that again. Lately, there have been more nuanced attempts at management and we are still learning. With a novel pathogen like this you don't take public health risks , especially as it can end right where it does the most damage.