Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

Curious_Case

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I'm afraid, it takes a particular level of arrogance and narcissism to think one could run a country better, this is highly unlikely, including for myself, it's one hell of a sh1t job, politicans certainly don't get paid enough, for what they're trying to do, particularly right now. it's a balancing act, while walking across a tight rope, while the rope is only truly secure at one end, and you're bollcok naked, its one hell of a sh1t job

Donald Trump

caveat emptor

UK all over the shop regards getting back to the office.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1308310998294704130?s=20

https://twitter.com/conormlally/status/1259623003702407168?s=20

Boggles

CalamariFritti wrote: »

And that doesnt even take into account the group of people who never test positive and never have antibodies. The ones it just seems to bounce off.

A total of 1675 samples have been received from three groups of population

That's less samples then our testing.

Karachi has population of 15 million.

I imagine the peer review if it gets that far will be brief.

Gael23

94 now in hospital

GooglePlus

Gael23 wrote: »

94 now in hospital

Any idea on ICU?

is_that_so

GooglePlus wrote: »

Any idea on ICU?

Think it's about 20.

mr zulu

is_that_so wrote: »

Think it's about 20.

It's says 17 on covid app

wadacrack

14 admission to hospital in the last 24 hours, high number

Boggles

14 admissions in the last 24 hours, you have to go back to the end of May to find a figure higher than that.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

That's less samples then our testing.

Karachi has population of 15 million.

I imagine the peer review if it gets that far will be brief.

All that matters is that the sample was representative. Not the number of samples.

Based on 1675 samples and an as found rate of 36%, the 95% CI for the true prevalence of that population is 33.3-38.4%. The question should be is the sample representative, not is the sample size large enough.

The problem with the Irish study was not the sample size, its that the sample was self selective in that 5,000 were selected at random, only 1700 hundred showed up, meaning it was a self selected sample and no longer representative. They also had 900 Dublin and 800 Sligo samples, which you can see straight away is not representative of the relative population of the counties

Pablo Escobar

Boggles wrote: »

That's less samples then our testing.

Karachi has population of 15 million.

I imagine the peer review if it gets that far will be brief.

It doesn’t necessarily matter what size the population the sample is taken from, once it’s large enough and once it’s taken from cross sections of the community. I’d argue that it’s not a bad sample size. Once the sample is representative of the city and has no bias, then 36% should be very close to reality.

CalamariFritti

Boggles wrote: »

That's less samples then our testing.

Karachi has population of 15 million.

I imagine the peer review if it gets that far will be brief.

You may imagine a lot but 1600 can still be a representative study.
If you dont like it look at the Mumbai study instead.

Anyway, it was quite clear from day 1 to all experts that cases reported is a very crude measurement. The nature of the beast is that you'll never know how many go undetected. If you knew they no longer would be undetected.

Only numbers that have reasonable accuracy are hospitalisations and deaths.

The more we learned about mild cases and asymptomatic and 'bullet proofs' the more we know that the group of undetected only keeps growing.

Since nobody really knows for sure I couldnt possibly know either. But from the data available across the globe I would wager that factor 10 is a conservative estimate on cases/infections. If you changed the lingo from cases/infections to 'exposures' I wouldnt be surprised it it was factor 20 or 30.

Which is actually a good thing. Because it means the severity of the virus was overestimated by far. Even with our still crude instrument of reported cases we're down to 0.2% to ICU over the last 4 weeks. If the conservative estimate of factor 10 applies we'd be looking at 0.02%.

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

All that matters is that the sample was representative. Not the number of samples.

Based on 1675 samples and an as found rate of 36%, the 95% CI for the true prevalence of that population is 33.3-38.4%. The question should be is the sample representative, not is the sample size large enough.

It isn't.

4 times higher rate in "Industrial Workers" compared to Health care workers.

It's junk.

Paddygreen

wadacrack wrote: »

14 admission to hospital in the last 24 hours, high number

Not looking good, the need for a new general lockdown is obvious.

Funsterdelux

HSE CEO Paul Reid said last night that there were 90 people hospitalised with Covid-19 and 19 in ICU.

tigger123

Numbers in Dublin are ticking upwards at consistent rate.

Really hope we don't end up at Level 4, but it's down to people's behaviours.

Asylum15

Two things remain in my mind regarding this virus.

1. The unknown long term effects of having had it for some. Cardiac issues have been seen in small studies.

2. What will those who get the flu AND covid heading into Winter face? Do the two make a healthy, young person more susceptible to being hospitalized etc.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

It isn't.

4 times higher rate in "Industrial Workers" compared to Health care workers.

It's junk.

If the samples aren't representative. It is odd that the lowest rate is among healthcare workers, however its only junk if the sample of healthcare workers or industrial workers is not representative.

For example, if we only selected meat plant workers in Kildare to represent Industrial workers. However you then have to remember that in Pakistan industrial workers would be in cramped environments with zero control over spread, while infectious disease control is a daily concern in Pakistani hospitals due to prevalence or diseases such as Typhoid, and the private hospitals in the country would be among the most well equipped in Asia

DangerScouse

Paddygreen wrote: »

Not looking good, the need for a new general lockdown is obvious.

Was always coming to that Paddy unfortunately. The general publics lack of ability to abide by simple clear guidelines laid down by health professionals seems to be the major issue.

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

If the samples aren't representative. It is odd that the lowest rate is among healthcare workers

It's not just odd.

It's a complete outlier to the rest of the world.

Golfman64

wadacrack wrote: »

14 admission to hospital in the last 24 hours, high number

10 were also discharged. Best to look at the net increase. We also won't see the affect of the new restrictions on hospitalisations for at least another 7 days, most likely.

Hector Savage

Guardian having a meltdown as usual ...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/sep/22/coronavirus-live-news-us-nears-200000-deaths-as-england-pubs-face-curfew

Trump falsely claims Covid-19 affects 'virtually' no young people

hmm not exactly false, it really isn't a big deal for young people, flu is more of an issue for kids....

In the grand scheme of things he's right

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

It's not just odd.

It's a complete outlier to the rest of the world.

Well the Oxford University Press on behalf of the Journal for Public Health accepted it for publication

Hector Savage

Asylum15 wrote: »

Two things remain in my mind regarding this virus.

1. The unknown long term effects of having had it for some. Cardiac issues have been seen in small studies.

2. What will those who get the flu AND covid heading into Winter face? Do the two make a healthy, young person more susceptible to being hospitalized etc.

If you look at the southern hemispheres incident of flu in their winter just past, it was at practically zero - probably due to hand washing and social distancing, I doubt flu will be an issue in the northern hemisphere winter.

Knine

Hector Savage wrote: »

Guardian having a meltdown as usual ...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/sep/22/coronavirus-live-news-us-nears-200000-deaths-as-england-pubs-face-curfew

Trump falsely claims Covid-19 affects 'virtually' no young people

hmm not exactly false, it really isn't a big deal for young people, flu is more of an issue for kids....

In the grand scheme of things he's right

Unless the young person has underlying issues. My 12 year old ended up in hospital! For some children it might be a very big deal

AdamD

Deleted User wrote: »

look its a little tedious to keep asking this but im going to persist anyway

GT89, apart from typing, what are the qualifications and relevant experience you are bringing to the table to set against the NPHET in terms of expertise in public advice against pandemic and against the govt and civil service in terms of gauging what elements of that idealised advice can be implemented with all the other aspects a govt has to take into account?

every single poster who wants to be taken seriously in opposing the actions of the actual experts and the actual mandated govt should set their balls on the table

single worst thing about boards isnt far right, far left, moderation, hate speech or anything else

its that not only is there an endless supply of posters who genuinely seem to think being able to fill a blank box with type makes their opinion the match of actual, demonstrated expertise, but that there is an almost endless supply of posters who seem happy to nod along with never a hint of genuine self-examination from anyone involved.

expertise and mandate matter and in the middle of a pandemic it really is incumbent on everyone to acknowledge that. the stakes are too high for this constant "we all have an equal opinion" rubbish. save that for soaps and sport.

what starts as "criticise the govt from the barstool" turns into shinner-level "we have one of the worst govts in the world" leads to "nobody has the right to tell me what to do!" in the middle of an actual deadly actual global threat where egging on this type of "my word's as good as anyone's" lunacy gets people killed and keeps countries locked down.

you're either with the national effort or not, whether some other pricks attended a golf dinner or not, whether you vote fffg or not, whether you think every member of the board of national experts is a political stooge out to spoil your autumn or not.

no sidelines. no "im only saying" because idiots read boards and twitter and use the "only saying" as reasons to do damage.

you're either with us, or against us. I can't see the value in opposing the efforts against a national crisis, no matter how important you feel hitting 'send' on a post that sticks it to the man.

Nah sorry this is complete horse****. We live in a democracy, we're allowed to question decisions. NPHET aren't beyond reproach, and the idea that they are is utterly ridiculous. Our health service is run poorly at the best of times, it doesn't require someone highly qualified to spot that. So should we suddenly have complete faith in it now that we're in a pandemic?

That line of thought is more dangerous that unqualified people questioning their decisions.

Indestructable

Spain seems to be coming out of it's second wave almost as quick as it went into it. Anyone know if that's due to dodgy case reporting?

Living Off The Splash

I was in Lidl Stillorgan early this morning. Woman shopping not wearing a mask. Normally there is some sort of security on the door. Not today.
The woman was feasting on tasties from the bread/cake section as she walked around the shop. I am sure she paid for them when she got to the checkout though......

Funsterdelux

Living Off The Splash wrote: »

I was in Lidl Stillorgan early this morning. Woman shopping not wearing a mask. Normally there is some sort of security on the door. Not today.
The woman was feasting on tasties from the bread/cake section as she walked around the shop. I am sure she paid for them when she got to the checkout though......

Maybe she was using the baked goods as a mask

Asylum15

Again referring back to the long term effects of the virus, seen a few posts from people who've recovered as far back as March/April and still have numerous symptoms, fatigue, tingles etc.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (understudied) seems to be a side effect of it.

Not deadly or fatal but something like the above can certainly alter life quality.

Allinall

Living Off The Splash wrote: »

I was in Lidl Stillorgan early this morning. Woman shopping not wearing a mask. Normally there is some sort of security on the door. Not today.
The woman was feasting on tasties from the bread/cake section as she walked around the shop. I am sure she paid for them when she got to the checkout though......

Why wouldn’t she pay for them?

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

Well the Oxford University Press on behalf of the Journal for Public Health accepted it for publication

Oxford University employs Professor Sunetra Gupta who claims we have reached herd immunity - just cause.

What's your point?

Hector Savage

Knine wrote: »

Unless the young person has underlying issues. My 12 year old ended up in hospital! For some children it might be a very big deal

Indeed some, but we need to look at the big picture here, Guardian are just jumping at anything the big bad orange bufoon says ... they need to give it a rest.

The US would be in the same position whoever was president.

Oranage2

Hindsight is 20/20 but we make some key mistakes after lockdown, when we knew about the meat factories and provision centres we should have had continued the lockdown for another month. Then when cases continued to increase rapidly we shouldn't have opened the schools. Now it's going to be impossible to to have people reply with restrictions without a heavy hand from the Gardai.

We also should have had tighter restrictions on air travel.

Charles Babbage

Allinall wrote: »

Why wouldn’t she pay for them?

Why wouldn't she wear a mask?

John O.Groats

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Maybe she was using the baked goods as a mask

More likely she is just a moron.

fly_agaric

Drumpot wrote: »

I’m curious as to how much cultural traits are playing a role in the spread.

...

People selectively point at other countries who have better numbers but I don’t see people discussing why these countries strategy works better. What works in one country may not in another for a multitude of reasons.

Yes, the methods being used in some Asian countries that have acheived better control of the virus have been deemed off limits for discussion & impossible in Europe/US.

I'm unsure that the people are just "naturally" more willing to stick to rules given human nature.

The governments are far more authoritarian and will strictly enforce what are just guidelines/suggestions here, as well as being able to take harsher measures (restricting travel & enforcing quarantines or tests etc.) that will not be accepted here.

The public sectors are I'd say larger/stronger than in the West and capable of enforcing their restrictions.

The governments make fewer promises about citizen's privacy and will invade it at will when it comes to doing contact tracing to track the virus or providing very granular information about where the virus is spreading etc.

Allinall

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Why wouldn't she wear a mask?

Perhaps she had a medical exemption?

the corpo

Asylum15 wrote: »

Again referring back to the long term effects of the virus, seen a few posts from people who've recovered as far back as March/April and still have numerous symptoms, fatigue, tingles etc.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (understudied) seems to be a side effect of it.

Not deadly or fatal but something like the above can certainly alter life quality.

A friends wife got it in March, has relapsed and been back in A+E 3 times since, primary symptom is extreme weakness, to a point where she can't even speak. He keeps pleading with people to just try not to catch the damned thing.

crossman47

Oranage2 wrote: »

Hindsight is 20/20 but we make some key mistakes after lockdown, when we knew about the meat factories and provision centres we should have had continued the lockdown for another month. Then when cases continued to increase rapidly we shouldn't have opened the schools. Now it's going to be impossible to to have people reply with restrictions without a heavy hand from the Gardai.

We also should have had tighter restrictions on air travel.

Look people are just not taking it seriously. I was walking near my local N.S. this morning. The parents all wore masks as they queued with children. But once they came out, the masks came off and there were groups of parents (mainly mothers) chatting at close quarters. I don't think they're being malicious, they just don't think.

Paddygreen

Oranage2 wrote: »

Hindsight is 20/20 but we make some key mistakes after lockdown, when we knew about the meat factories and provision centres we should have had continued the lockdown for another month. Then when cases continued to increase rapidly we shouldn't have opened the schools. Now it's going to be impossible to to have people reply with restrictions without a heavy hand from the Gardai.

We also should have had tighter restrictions on air travel.

The police in Melbourne have done a great job so far keeping people in line, getting them to obey the rules. Our Gardaí need to know that they can take dissenters down.

Funsterdelux

Hector Savage wrote: »

Indeed some, but we need to look at the big picture here, Guardian are just jumping at anything the big bad orange bufoon says ... they need to give it a rest.

The US would be in the same position whoever was president.

Take it up with Guardian then, unless maybe one of us posters here are one of their editors?

Boggles

Paddygreen wrote: »

The police in Melbourne have done a great job so far keeping people in line, getting them to obey the rules. Our Gardaí need to know that they can take dissenters down.

YAWN!

alentejo

From observations, most people (95+) are fully heeding with the restrictions of masks and 2m etc

You will always have a minority whom will not.

My own view is that this wave will not be as bad as the first one. 95% of people will be less likely to catch it (however some will defo catch it).

I think the daily maximum of cases per day will be 450 (as opposed to 700+) back in late April.

While elderly people will be hospitalised (as well as young people), the majority of people who get infected will be better able to fight off the virus. The second wave which is among us will not be as bad as the first wave!

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

Oxford University employs Professor Sunetra Gupta who claims we have reached herd immunity - just cause.

What's your point?

Oxford University Press is a publisher, not a Professor of Epidemiology based in Oxford. It publishes the Journal of Public Health along with the Oxford English Dictionary and many others. A reputable journal, The Journal of Public health accepted the Karachi study for publication. Just because you don't like what it says doesn't make it false. It is of scientific interest, an is now out there for the scientific community to confirm or find errors

Hector Savage

Paddygreen wrote: »

The police in Melbourne have done a great job so far keeping people in line, getting them to obey the rules. Our Gardaí need to know that they can take dissenters down.

Yeah Melbourne cops are what we should look up to.

little SS thugs going around beating teenage girls up for not wearing a mask, kicking down people's door and aresting them (one of them a pregnant woman) for daring to express an anti lockdown sentiment on social media.

Funsterdelux

crossman47 wrote: »

Look people are just not taking it seriously. I was walking near my local N.S. this morning. The parents all wore masks as they queued with children. But once they came out, the masks came off and there were groups of parents (mainly mothers) chatting at close quarters. I don't think they're being malicious, they just don't think.

Luckily my kids school you cant loiter as theres no space or you'd get run over by an artic.

But I agree social distancing has largely gone out the window.

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

Oxford University Press

Which is part of Oxford University.

Who employ people stating all sorts of crazy shít, throwing a "study" up on it's server is hard a massive deal in comparison.

John O.Groats

alentejo wrote: »

From observations, most people (95+) are fully heeding with the restrictions of masks and 2m etc

You will always have a minority whom will not.

My own view is that this wave will not be as bad as the first one. 95% of people will be less likely to catch it (however some will defo catch it).

I think the daily maximum of cases per day will be 450 (as opposed to 700+) back in late April.

While elderly people will be hospitalised (as well as young people), the majority of people who get infected will be better able to fight off the virus. The second wave which is among us will not be as bad as the first wave!

What evidence do you have for these claims?

TonyMaloney

alentejo wrote: »

From observations, most people (95+) are fully heeding with the restrictions of masks and 2m etc

You will always have a minority whom will not.

My own view is that this wave will not be as bad as the first one. 95% of people will be less likely to catch it (however some will defo catch it).

I think the daily maximum of cases per day will be 450 (as opposed to 700+) back in late April.

While elderly people will be hospitalised (as well as young people), the majority of people who get infected will be better able to fight off the virus. The second wave which is among us will not be as bad as the first wave!

On our current trajectory we're likely to have a day with 450+ cases in about a week. That won't compare to 450 a day back in April because testing was so limited, but still.