Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

landofthetree

I was called crazy on here a couple of weeks back for saying we will go back into full lockdown.

Its pretty obvious we will be in lockdown from late Oct till around late March. The Irish winter is the perfect temperature for the spread of a virus.

Curious_Case

Hector Savage wrote: »

Indeed some, but we need to look at the big picture here, Guardian are just jumping at anything the big bad orange bufoon says ... they need to give it a rest.

The US would be in the same position whoever was president.

It would if the population behaved in exactly the same way regardless of different advice issued from a different administration.

John O.Groats

landofthetree wrote: »

I was called crazy on here a couple of weeks back for saying we will go back into full lockdown.

Its pretty obvious we will be in lockdown from late Oct till around late March. The Irish winter is the perfect temperature for the spread of a virus.

Whatever about a national lockdown if cases keep rising there will certainly be recurring county wide restrictions over the next few months. Time for the people who are ignoring the guidelines to cop the **** on to themselves if this is to be prevented.

B.A._Baracus

landofthetree wrote: »

I was called crazy on here a couple of weeks back for saying we will go back into full lockdown.

Its pretty obvious we will be in lockdown from late Oct till around late March. The Irish winter is the perfect temperature for the spread of a virus.

There has been a lot of opinions posted on these threads as a matter of fact. Which adopting such an attitude is foolish, ignorant and wrong.

'fact' is no one knows where this will go... If one could tell you where will be at they'd be better off using their powers to get next week's lotto numbers

I remember reading posts from a user on here about 6-8 weeks ago who blatantly stated people can go into Dublin city centre without masks or washing hands and NOT get Corona. Posted as a matter of fact and not just their opinion.

But then what can we expect? At times it does come off as so many are experts on the internet. Go back to boards.ie in 2011 with the Japanese earthquakes - I never knew boards had so many "nuclear scientists" using the forum :pac:

snowcat

Does any media ever pull that pro restrictions dope Sam Mc Conkey on any of his previous scare mongering comments that have not materialised. On June 5th (irish times) he stated any loosening of restrictions while community transmission was at 20 per day would result in 30000 cases a day in 50 days time.

“If we relax restrictions when there are still, say, 20 or 30 cases of community transmission, we know that . . . over five days it will double, and then that means over 50 days it will rise exponentially, a thousand-fold,” he said.

Well 3 months later despite nearly a full opening it has not happened.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

Which is part of Oxford University.

Who employ people stating all sorts of crazy shít, throwing a "study" up on it's server is hard a massive deal in comparison.

Jesus Christ Boggles - you just completely dismissed anything that comes out of the number 5 university on the planet. Everyone in Oxford is not of one mind either, and one Professor among an Academic staff of 7,000 does not define the universities policy on any given issue.

boggerman1

snowcat wrote: »

Does any media ever pull that pro restrictions dope Sam Mc Conkey on any of his previous scare mongering comments that have not materialised. On June 5th (irish times) he stated any loosening of restrictions while community transmission was at 20 per day would result in 30000 cases a day in 50 days time.

“If we relax restrictions when there are still, say, 20 or 30 cases of community transmission, we know that . . . over five days it will double, and then that means over 50 days it will rise exponentially, a thousand-fold,” he said.

Well 3 months later despite nearly a full opening it has not happened.

They know best and can’t be questioned.i at the start thought he was one of the better ones on radio but not now.

GooglePlus

landofthetree wrote: »

I was called crazy on here a couple of weeks back for saying we will go back into full lockdown.

Its pretty obvious we will be in lockdown from late Oct till around late March. The Irish winter is the perfect temperature for the spread of a virus.

I can't see us locking down for that long. I'd imagine a lockdown to drive cases down in time for Christmas to let the people out to spend their dough.

Boggles

snowcat wrote: »

Does any media ever pull that pro restrictions dope Sam Mc Conkey on any of his previous scare mongering comments that have not materialised. On June 5th (irish times) he stated any loosening of restrictions while community transmission was at 20 per day would result in 30000 cases a day in 50 days time.

“If we relax restrictions when there are still, say, 20 or 30 cases of community transmission, we know that . . . over five days it will double, and then that means over 50 days it will rise exponentially, a thousand-fold,” he said.

Well 3 months later despite nearly a full opening it has not happened.

We didn't have 20-30 cases back in June, let alone 20-30 cases of community transmission.

So i guess his prediction starts when we did. Which is quite recently.

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

Jesus Christ Boggles - you just completely dismissed anything that comes out of the number 5 university on the planet. Everyone in Oxford is not of one mind either, and one Professor among an Academic staff of 7,000 does not define the universities policy on any given issue.

No i didn't.

You dropped Oxford into the conversation as 'discussion over' tactic.

We have had this conservation before.

Spain's numbers falling like a stone this last week. Over 10,000 per day for a few weeks. Under 5,000 last week and under 3,000 yesterday. If this is europes worst country signs are encouraging.

xabi

Deleted User wrote: »

Spain's numbers falling like a stone this last week. Over 10,000 per day for a few weeks. Under 5,000 last week and under 3,000 yesterday. If this is europes worst country signs are encouraging.

Did they have extra restrictions over this period?

DebDynamite

fly_agaric wrote: »

Yes, the methods being used in some Asian countries that have acheived better control of the virus have been deemed off limits for discussion & impossible in Europe/US.

I'm unsure that the people are just "naturally" more willing to stick to rules given human nature.

The governments are far more authoritarian and will strictly enforce what are just guidelines/suggestions here, as well as being able to take harsher measures (restricting travel & enforcing quarantines or tests etc.) that will not be accepted here.

The public sectors are I'd say larger/stronger than in the West and capable of enforcing their restrictions.

The governments make fewer promises about citizen's privacy and will invade it at will when it comes to doing contact tracing to track the virus or providing very granular information about where the virus is spreading etc.

It’s makes you wonder when you read articles like about packed nightclubs in Wuhan.
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/nightclubs-wuhan-packed-coronavirus-epicentre-22712888.amp

Yes, I know it’s the Mirror, but still

Maybe if we had to have gotten tough and quarantined arrivals into the country, or test them on arrival when we had the extra capacity (when they majority weren’t flying anyway), we could be in a different place now. If New York can do it, I don’t see why we couldn’t.

Maybe if we’d been willing to give up a bit more of our “freedoms”, we’d have more of it now.

xabi

xabi wrote: »

Did they have extra restrictions over this period?

Of course extra restrictions. Might not be reason. Who knows?

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

Spain's numbers falling like a stone this last week. Over 10,000 per day for a few weeks. Under 5,000 last week and under 3,000 yesterday. If this is europes worst country signs are encouraging.

Or is it a change of accountancy?

The Spanish authorities for some reason like to do things like that without warning.

Widdensushi

Boggles wrote: »

Or is it a change of accountancy?

The Spanish authorities for some reason like to do things like that without warning.

You seem disappointed

TonyMaloney

latest cases by epi date

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

No i didn't.

You dropped Oxford into the conversation as 'discussion over' tactic.

We have had this conservation before.

Oxford University Press the publisher, not Oxford University the organisation. And given you said on peer review review the article would be rejected, yet the Journal of Public Health published, a publication from the Faculty of Public Health , an organisation of Public health experts around the world, it is relevant to the discussion

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

Or is it a change of accountancy?

The Spanish authorities for some reason like to do things like that without warning.

Cases of covid is not accountancy. Accountancy is financial information. Would you dispute if they were rising?

Pitch n Putt

Allinall wrote: »

Perhaps she had a medical exemption?

No doubtful it’s a medical exemption. That wouldn’t be a possibility at all :rolleyes:

Just a moron as eloquently put by a pro masker earlier.

That’s the sort of talk from pro maskers that boil my blood.

Boggles

Widdensushi wrote: »

You seem disappointed

Because I pointed out a fact?

Cool.

US2

I remember at the start in China people were wearing swimming goggles along with their masks to the shops. Mandatory glasses in indoor areas soon ?

https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1308333957369470977?s=19

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

Cases of covid is not accountancy. Accountancy is financial information. Would you dispute if they were rising?

Yes I actually did, when there were retrospectively adding cases from antibody tests.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

Yes I actually did, when there were retrospectively adding cases from antibody tests.

Query if you want to. Trend looks good. :cool:

Hector Savage

Deleted User wrote: »

Spain's numbers falling like a stone this last week. Over 10,000 per day for a few weeks. Under 5,000 last week and under 3,000 yesterday. If this is europes worst country signs are encouraging.

No, not true unfortunately, are you using worldometer for your source ?
Spain have changed the way they report data ..

I find El Pais are good ...
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-09-22/health-ministry-reports-31000-new-coronavirus-cases-detected-this-weekend-a-third-of-them-in-madrid.html

So last weekend increase 27k cases ... this weekend 31k ... so there is steady growth.

But I wish they wouldn't use cases as a metric , pointless at this stage.

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

Query if you want to. Trend looks good. :cool:

Thank you for your permission. :rolleyes:

DebDynamite

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

No doubtful it’s a medical exemption. That wouldn’t be a possibility at all :rolleyes:

Just a moron as eloquently put by a pro masker earlier.

That’s the sort of talk from pro maskers that boil my blood.

My mother is nearly 70 and asked a guy shopping in the chemist the other day where his mask was. She said she’s going to start doing it from now on :pac: I’d say someone will tell her where to go one of these days, but she doesn’t care!

ACitizenErased

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Oxford University Press the publisher, not Oxford University the organisation. And given you said on peer review review the article would be rejected, yet the Journal of Public Health published, a publication from the Faculty of Public Health , an organisation of Public health experts around the world, it is relevant to the discussion

Don’t even bother, it’s like talking to the wall.
If they don’t like what they see = “the study is flawed” “herd immunity, cant be true”
All we hear is but but but but. Not worth it.

Pitch n Putt

GooglePlus wrote: »

I can't see us locking down for that long. I'd imagine a lockdown to drive cases down in time for Christmas to let the people out to spend their dough.

Spending will be well down with the mandatory mask requirement.

That’s a certainty and another blow to retailers along with them been forced to close earlier this year.

The amount of empty retail outlets by this time next year will be scary.

fly_agaric

DebDynamite wrote: »

It’s makes you wonder when you read articles like about packed nightclubs in Wuhan.
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/nightclubs-wuhan-packed-coronavirus-epicentre-22712888.amp

Yes, I know it’s the Mirror, but still

Maybe if we had to have gotten tough and quarantined arrivals into the country, or test them on arrival when we had the extra capacity (when they majority weren’t flying anyway), we could be in a different place now. If New York can do it, I don’t see why we couldn’t.

Maybe if we’d been willing to give up a bit more of our “freedoms”, we’d have more of it now.

It does make me wonder alright (about the freedom/public health balance generally).
With China and with their system one always needs to be sceptical as regards truthfulness of information that is is presented to the rest of the world (and the government/administrative system in that country is no model anyone would willingly follow).

However there are democratic countries (e.g. South Korea) doing things which have increased their success that would cause absolute uproar here (very strong inward travel restrictions, enforced quarantines and tests, use of [to us] Orwellian levels of information collection and surveillance of citizens to do contact tracing etc).

Such things may not be possible here anyway (even if the public/political will was there) without expansion of the public sector to take on extra tasks.

Widdensushi

Boggles wrote: »

Because I pointed out a fact?

Cool.

Where is the fact, I see a question.

bb1234567

https://www.euronews.com/2020/09/19/new-restrictions-issued-in-madrid-as-covid-19-cases-in-spain-increase-by-14-000

Stay at home order announced in large parts of Madrid- 850,000 told not to leave neighbourhood other than for essential purposes - work ,school and medical.

Hector Savage

Hector Savage wrote: »

No, not true unfortunately, are you using worldometer for your source ?
Spain have changed the way they report data ..

I find El Pais are good ...
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-09-22/health-ministry-reports-31000-new-coronavirus-cases-detected-this-weekend-a-third-of-them-in-madrid.html

So last weekend increase 27k cases ... this weekend 31k ... so there is steady growth.

But I wish they wouldn't use cases as a metric , pointless at this stage.

Where is the facts they changed reporting.

Nothing other than your word for that.

Deaths are under 100 hundred every day despite massive numbers.

rob316

Living Off The Splash wrote: »

I was in Lidl Stillorgan early this morning. Woman shopping not wearing a mask. Normally there is some sort of security on the door. Not today.
The woman was feasting on tasties from the bread/cake section as she walked around the shop. I am sure she paid for them when she got to the checkout though......

The horror she wasn't wearing a mask. Did you shout at her Shame! Shame! Shame!

GooglePlus

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Where is the facts they changed reporting.

Nothing other than your word for that.

Deaths are under 100 hundred every day despite massive numbers.

What do you think happened? The virus just suddenly decided to stop spreading or rapidly changed?

It's obviously a mix of reporting changes with a dash of restrictions on top?

There's nothing else it could be unfortunately.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

Thank you for your permission. :rolleyes:

Getting abit personal. Think you like bad news me thinks.

Boggles

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Don’t even bother, it’s like talking to the wall.
If they don’t like what they see = “the study is flawed” “herd immunity, cant be true”
All we hear is but but but but. Not worth it.

You're right, I should have thrown a few fictional characters in to make my opinion more valid.

bb1234567

Deleted User wrote: »

Where is the facts they changed reporting.

Nothing other than your word for that.

Deaths are under 100 hundred every day despite massive numbers.

To be fair that's not true about the last bit, 7 day average of deaths in Spain is 116. It is still low compared to the caseload however.

hetuzozaho

Deleted User wrote: »

Think you like bad news me thinks.

Think you are getting a bit personal with him.

ACitizenErased

Record case numbers worldwide last week.
But, deaths decreased by 10% on the previous week. The Americas deaths were down by 22% and Africa by 15%.

https://www.barrons.com/amp/news/world-sees-record-weekly-number-of-covid-19-cases-deaths-down-who-01600764904#click=https://t.co/CVdPhYOHNB

GooglePlus

GooglePlus wrote: »

What do you think happened? The virus just suddenly decided to stop spreading or rapidly changed?

It's obviously a mix of reporting changes with a dash of restrictions on top?

There's nothing else it could be unfortunately.

Won't be replying to you anymore. This is my last reply.

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

Getting abit personal. Think you like bad news me thinks.

No I like accurate news, facts they used be called.

But you keep on trucking, marvelous!

ACitizenErased

Mad you can literally guess who’s going to be offended when ya post something on this

Widdensushi

Boggles wrote: »

No I like accurate news, facts they used be called.

But you keep on trucking, marvelous!

Where are the facts that show covid cases in Spain are increasing?

Boggles

Widdensushi wrote: »

Where are the facts that show covid cases in Spain are increasing?

Where did I claim that as a fact?

ACitizenErased

Based on data from the CEBM many scientists believe that Spain’s numbers are in fact relatively stable or decreasing, due to the way in which they report cases being flawed.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-covid-really-rising-in-spain-a-look-at-the-data

RebelButtMunch

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Of course extra restrictions. Might not be reason. Who knows?

Data are provisional and subject to change. From Sept. 16 onward, figures for daily new cases only include cases already validated by the Ministry of Health in the daily PDF report. Since the validation process takes time to complete, additional cases are expected to be added retroactively once the weekly historical dataset revision is released by the Ministry of Health on Friday, Sept. 25. Data up to Sept. 15 reflects the latest release of the official "Historical Series of Cases by Autonomous Community" dataset released by the Ministry of Health. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

MerlinSouthDub

From the dashboard, I see that ICU cases are down 1 to 16 this morning (1 discharge). I'm not sure why Paul Reid was tweeting about 19 ICU cases last night.

ACitizenErased

Latest epidemic graph from the CEBM for Spain:



And England:


https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/epidemic-curves-organised-by-reporting-date-and-specimen-date/

mandrake04

Hector Savage wrote: »

If you look at the southern hemispheres incident of flu in their winter just past, it was at practically zero - probably due to hand washing and social distancing, I doubt flu will be an issue in the northern hemisphere winter.

Partially social distancing.

But most countries had travel restrictions in place end of March and April so there was less international movements, that's usually the time when the flu gets established in the southern hemisphere.