Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

eagle eye

Widdensushi wrote:

If you are planning on saying they are not testing the deaths have trickled out also

They are not reporting their numbers very well. All I can find is that they had 1675 cases between the 11th and 17th September. That's the newest data I can find anywhere and it's not good either.

OwenM

DangerScouse wrote: »

The crazy thing is there are still some out there that don't see schools as a problem. The numbers literally sky rocketed after schools reopened.

The schools re-opened in every county but the numbers didn't sky rocket in every county, a correlation would be expected

CalamariFritti

DangerScouse wrote: »

The crazy thing is there are still some out there that don't see schools as a problem. The numbers literally sky rocketed after schools reopened.

Actually they skyrocketed since we mandated masks :pac:

is_that_so

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

20% of people in Sweden live alone, not 40%.

Are people living alone more or less likely to go out and meet other people socially, would you think?

It's 40% of households , nearly 2m people!

https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2019-09-11---swedes-prefer-to-live-alone-because-of-the-high-cost-of-housing-and-their-sanctification-of-independence-.rkAregP8B.html

I think it depends on the individual but they are likely to be alone in the high risk location of households.

CalamariFritti

So we're looking for excuses now why Sweden was outlier and couldn't possibly work elsewhere.

caveat emptor

https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1306481284189794304?s=20

is_that_so

OwenM wrote: »

Not quite an anecdote, but when a scientist says 'We believe' I'm not reassured. Calculating a R number has a method surely?

He regularly lists 4 methods. R0 at low numbers of cases is very hard to guess at. Even in March they believed with 95% confidence.

eagle eye

CalamariFritti wrote:

So we're looking for excuses now why Sweden was outlier and couldn't possibly work elsewhere.

How is Sweden an outlier with 1675 cases in a week?

Hrududu

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Actually they skyrocketed since we mandated masks :pac:

Ok guys we’re going to start opening things up again. We can now go to shops that were previously closed, get hair cuts, go to restaurants and some pubs, go to the cinema and if you play sports a lot of them are opening up again? Oh and please wear masks.

Numbers go up

Well clearly it’s the mask wearing that’s the problem!

Widdensushi

DangerScouse wrote: »

The crazy thing is there are still some out there that don't see schools as a problem. The numbers literally sky rocketed after schools reopened.

The numbers were only going one way before the schools opened, coincidentally our testing has been going up also, the fact that every schoolchild with a sniffle is sent for a COVID test now is also having an effect, not necessarily a bad one.

is_that_so

CalamariFritti wrote: »

So we're looking for excuses now why Sweden was outlier and couldn't possibly work elsewhere.

No, Sweden had its own problems and it may have worked for them but Swedes respond in a certain way to what their government says to them. It's just a strategy but one that is unlikely to be followed elsewhere.

wadacrack

CalamariFritti wrote: »

So we're looking for excuses now why Sweden was outlier and couldn't possibly work elsewhere.

Sweden have a compliant population

https://twitter.com/Oldboatie/status/1308394678044307457

is_that_so

wadacrack wrote: »

Sweden have a compliant population

https://twitter.com/Oldboatie/status/1308394678044307457

Absolutely , it's culturally very different to many other countries in Europe.

CalamariFritti

Hrududu wrote: »

Ok guys we’re going to start opening things up again. We can now go to shops that were previously closed, get hair cuts, go to restaurants and some pubs, go to the cinema and if you play sports a lot of them are opening up again? Oh and please wear masks.

Numbers go up

Well clearly it’s the mask wearing that’s the problem!

My point was that one statement is as true as the other. As in it may or may not be.

niamh247

Widdensushi wrote: »

The numbers were only going one way before the schools opened, coincidentally our testing has been going up also, the fact that every schoolchild with a sniffle is sent for a COVID test now is also having an effect, not necessarily a bad one.

Do you know there is not even temperature checking at schools. Some parents could just sending in kids who are already infected, may be without knowledge. Testing after having sniffle doesn't help the infections that might have already happened.

MerlinSouthDub

is_that_so wrote: »

It's 40% of households , nearly 2m people!

https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2019-09-11---swedes-prefer-to-live-alone-because-of-the-high-cost-of-housing-and-their-sanctification-of-independence-.rkAregP8B.html

I think it depends on the individual but they are likely to be alone in the high risk location of households.

As I said, it's 20% of people (slightly less, actually). Thanks for confirming. Personally, I think people living alone are more likely to get out and about, and so I'm very unconvinced that more single person households is the reason that Sweden are doing so well right now.

CalamariFritti

eagle eye wrote: »

How is Sweden an outlier with 1675 cases in a week?

The outlier is the trajectory of their curve. No spike then dip then bigger spike. Just an initial spike and on the down ever since.

All with no lockdown no masks kids in school all the way...

DebDynamite

wadacrack wrote: »

Sweden have a compliant population

https://twitter.com/Oldboatie/status/1308394678044307457

Kinda like a strict diet. Tell someone they can’t have something and they just want it more and will binge when they eventually break and come off the diet.

OwenM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

The outlier is the trajectory of their curve. No spike then dip then bigger spike. Just an initial spike and on the down ever since.

All with no lockdown no masks kids in school all the way...

While I believe Sweden is doing the right thing, we need to be clear - they did shut secondary schools and implement some social distancing but certainly not a Wuhan or Spain style lockdown.

Widdensushi

wadacrack wrote: »

Sweden have a compliant population

https://twitter.com/Oldboatie/status/1308394678044307457

I can't make out which line is Sweden, both are trending up whereas swedens deaths, hospital cases with covid are trending down

CalamariFritti

OwenM wrote: »

While I believe Sweden is doing the right thing, we need to be clear - they did shut secondary schools and implement some social distancing but certainly not a Wuhan or Spain style lockdown.

Or even an Irish style lockdown

is_that_so

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

As I said, it's 20% of people (slightly less, actually). Thanks for confirming. Personally, I think people living alone are more likely to get out and about, and so I'm very unconvinced that more single person households is the reason that Sweden are doing so well right now.

That's just one of the reasons but they also have a very strong sense of social solidarity that few other countries show. It really wouldn't work here at all. It's not like they are free, they have some restrictions.

2ndcoming

eagle eye wrote: »

The numbers are growing all the time, so no they don't agree with his thoughts.
Obviously the deaths are lower because we are protecting the more vulnerable but the numbers are going up and up. We are heading for 3k cases per day by early November if we don't do something.

The deaths are lower because we have a much more accurate accounting of active cases now. In March/April we probably had about 100,000 cases nationwide.

is_that_so

OwenM wrote: »

While I believe Sweden is doing the right thing, we need to be clear - they did shut secondary schools and implement some social distancing but certainly not a Wuhan or Spain style lockdown.

Sweden's approach may have worked for Sweden, having a population of Swedes makes it work a lot better! Distancing can work for all.

CalamariFritti

is_that_so wrote: »

That's just one of the reasons but they also have a very strong sense of social solidarity that few other countries show. It really wouldn't work here at all. It's not like they are free, they have restrictions in hospitality as well.

Well they're certainly not looking at another lockdown they didnt have in the first place.

growleaves

DangerScouse wrote: »

Ireland is nothing like Sweden in terms of how we live.

Why are we in a political union with this alien race of otherworldly beings?

The strange universe of Northern European Protestanism is one we daren't enter because we don't know what mind-bending things we will behold there.

AdamD

Deleted User wrote: »

In the first 6 weeks of the pandemic we had 8900 cases and 320 deaths, in the last 6 weeks we had 6353 cases and 30 deaths. The numbers very much agree with the users thoughts

Roughly extrapolating those comparisons would say we actually had about 67k cases rather than 8900 cases back then. Of course there are other variables like demographics catching it and better treatments, so isn't a fair comparison

I do think if you got the deaths by population age, say 0-10, 1-20 etc. during the first couple of months and multiplied them by the more recent death rates in those age brackets you'd get a decent estimate of the actual caseload back then

is_that_so wrote: »

Colm Henry says it's currently 278 ICU beds up from about 220 in February.

Any source for this? Pretty decent improvement if its true

is_that_so

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Well they're certainly not looking at another lockdown they didnt have in the first place.

Not the same country nor the same people any more than Chinese or Korean approaches worked for them.

is_that_so

AdamD wrote: »

Roughly extrapolating those comparisons would say we actually had about 67k cases rather than 8900 cases back then. Of course there are other variables like demographics catching it and better treatments, so isn't a fair comparison

I do think if you got the deaths by population age, say 0-10, 1-20 etc. during the first couple of months and multiplied them by the more recent death rates in those age brackets you'd get a decent estimate of the actual caseload back then

Any source for this? Pretty decent improvement if its true

In the IT article today. Probably elsewhere too.

lukas8888

is_that_so wrote: »

We'd need to build a lot of accommodation to have 40% living alone and import a whole lot of Swedes to change our mentality. Strategies worldwide have been applied to suit local sensibilities and while there are a lot of similarities, what they did in Say Korea of r NZ may not work elsewhere.

I see this 40% living alone quoted widely but the highest percentage i can find is 25%.Link please.

billybonkers

Expect a few other counties to move to Level 3 this week. Media have been doing the usual, giving off warning signs. We saw it last week when the new plan was announced. So don't be surprised.

Mentioning the counties last night and today.

UK announcing measures for 6 months.

Widdensushi

is_that_so wrote: »

Sweden's approach may have worked for Sweden, having a population of Swedes makes it work a lot better! Distancing can work for all.

25% of swedens population have a foreign background.

is_that_so

growleaves wrote: »

Why are we in a political union with this alien race of otherworldly beings?

The strange universe of Northern European Protestanism is one we daren't enter because we don't know what mind-bending things we will behold there.

Yeah they are strange!

One of the key characteristics of Swedish culture is that Swedes are egalitarian in nature, humble and find boasting absolutely unacceptable.

In many ways, Swedes prefer to listen to others as opposed to ensuring that their own voice is heard.

As an example, work hard and play hard are not common concepts in Sweden. People work hard but not too hard, they go out and enjoy themselves, but without participating in anything extreme.

https://www.commisceo-global.com/resources/country-guides/sweden-guide

is_that_so

Widdensushi wrote: »

25% of swedens population have a foreign background.

But they live in Sweden so not sure what point you hope to make with this.

billybonkers

billybonkers wrote: »

Expect a few other counties to move to Level 3 this week. Media have been doing the usual, giving off warning signs. We saw it last week when the new plan was announced. So don't be surprised.

Mentioning the counties last night and today.

UK announcing measures for 6 months.

I think the UK message was more of a warning than a plan - this is what ye face for 6 months unless....
Their plan would be around a 2.5 on our scale

caveat emptor

UK looks to bee going towards zerocovid after all.

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1308398490570174468?s=20

is_that_so

lukas8888 wrote: »

I see this 40% living alone quoted widely but the highest percentage i can find is 25%.Link please.

I linked above, it's 40% of households.

Zebra3

lukas8888 wrote: »

I see this 40% living alone quoted widely but the highest percentage i can find is 25%.Link please.

Whatever the % of people living alone in Sweden is, it's not gonna reflect properly how they interact.

Most adult Swedes if living alone will be in a relationship of some sort, could be very, very casual, with another adult.

And even if they have children it makes little difference, so a lot of those "living alone" figures are in close contact with another household with differing numbers of people.

Oranage2

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

I’m listening to the radio saying that community transmission is a threat to schools, schools aren’t a threat to the community and my brain is going.... But if you don’t know where the cases are coming from then how can you say this?

And no doubt the figures will be manipulated, we've seen the factories have vanished from the news and the cases being put down as work place transmission, I bet they'll put schools down as community transmission.

Widdensushi

is_that_so wrote: »

But they live in Sweden so not sure what point you hope to make with this.

Just that the point that they live and act so differently to the rest of the world is lessened, we tend to blame 5% for breaking the rules in Ireland, if we are saying 25% of the population of Sweden don't have a Swedish it is relevant.

ACitizenErased

You can't really trust the community transmission figures anymore, to be honest. They don't even trace where cases are coming from, just toss them in with community transmission.

s1ippy

It's been a long time since the beer was counted. It was a relief to get the heads up early in the day to stop thinking about it, I miss it.

owlbethere

caveat emptor wrote: »

UK looks to bee going towards zerocovid after all.

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1308398490570174468?s=20

That's a big Uturn. What happened over there that they want to suppress it as much as possible? There was something on the news over the weekend of some large fines of 10,000 pounds over in the UK for people found in breach of some of the guidelines. Seems heavy but its absolutely it appropriate to get people to comply. It's badly needed here in Ireland for everyone to do their bit at suppressing the virus. Didn't Ireland want an all Ireland approach at one stage? They wanted NI to take on our approach and guidelines or to have them nearly the same. Would this mean that Ireland would jow have to adapt the same or similar measures?

DangerScouse

billybonkers wrote: »

Expect a few other counties to move to Level 3 this week. Media have been doing the usual, giving off warning signs. We saw it last week when the new plan was announced. So don't be surprised.

Mentioning the counties last night and today.

UK announcing measures for 6 months.

It's a good solid approach from the UK tbh. Just be honest and treat people like adults. Time for our government to be honest with people also.

Wolf359f

is_that_so wrote: »

I linked above, it's 40% of households.

40% of households live alone, meaning 60% of households have at least 2 occupants. So at the very most 33.3% of the population live alone.
There's a difference been number or households and population. Maybe that's where the confusion is coming from.

Oranage2

Oranage2 wrote: »

And no doubt the figures will be manipulated, we've seen the factories have vanished from the news and the cases being put down as work place transmission, I bet they'll put schools down as community transmission.

The only thing there is no doubt about is the continual accusations of data manipulation

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19_14_day_epidemiology_report_20200921_Website.pdf

2ndcoming

s1ippy wrote: »

It's been a long time since the beer was counted. It was a relief to get the heads up early in the day to stop thinking about it, I miss it.

Will be a heavy Tuesday today I'd imagine, as is the style. 500 would be no surprise.

Goldengirl

is_that_so wrote: »

Social settings mainly - communions, parties, other gatherings etc. - like other places.

Large hospital testing patients ...every area with massive cases has a major general hospital involved.

caveat emptor

Lunatics.

https://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1308399435790000129?s=20

2ndcoming

Goldengirl wrote: »

Large hospital testing patients ...every area with massive cases has a major general hospital involved.

If they don't live in the area they wouldn't be counted for that area though, so not sure that stands up. People from everywhere use those hospitals.