Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

petes

Gradius wrote: »

You show me how to condense thousands of pages of information into a digestible post on a message board, and I'll show you how to cure this pandemic.

Nonsense.

bb1234567

France going the way of Spain now with caseloads now translating to deaths/hospitalisations..124 ICU admissions and 130 deaths in France in the last 48 hours

Gradius

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes.
Apparently all warned 5 years ago about getting the health and other services ready for just this scenario.
But no government in this country has ever done more than lurch from crisis to crisis.

No "apparently" about it. Strategies were completed 8 years ago and given to every government.

They were also specifically warned about China, right down to the genetic variables of potential zoonotics arising from that place.

But, you know, cheap labour and maximum profit were given precedent. I wonder are they laughing now watching economies die I won't pretend, there's a schadenfreude to the whole disaster.

Gradius

petes wrote: »

Nonsense.

Says bloke

spookwoman

jojofizzio wrote: »

Takes about an hour to drive from Co.Kerry from Skibbereen

Was looking at the map a*seways

What Username Guidelines

Can we start the new thread, but leave the last 200 posts left in this thread before the 10k limit for those who want to argue the ratio of Dublin's width to Cork's height please.

Goldrickssan

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Can we start the new thread, but leave the last 200 posts left in this thread before the 10k limit for those who want to argue the ratio of Dublin's width to Cork's height please.

I think we're close to a cure for Covid though

amadangomor

Goldengirl wrote: »

You mean if I drive from Dublin to NI ?
Or are you taking the pvss?

He's right:eek: Google mapped it 2 hours 51 to the border near Newry and 2 hour 51 to Lambs head Co. Cork both from Mitchelstown

amadangomor

marno21 wrote: »

If you left Mitchelstown you’d be in Northern Ireland before you’d be at the opposite side of the county.

Just to prove how big Cork is

Good point but have to factor in how good the motorway system is and how ****e some of our normal roads are.

Happydays2020

billybonkers wrote: »

Just got to level 3 already for the above average counties. Get it over and done with

You have made a good point. There are no metrics associated with the different levels. What is the target for Dublin to be back to level 2, or indeed what level would indicate it reaching level 4? There is plenty of stuck but not much in terms of a carrot.

And can we do all this with having 40 super spreaders sitting in a room together for 6 hours A day 5 days a week, and then going home to their families every evening and weekends.

Spleodar

BringBackMick wrote: »

Rates in Cork beginning to look quite scary now. 34 cases today...

If you adjusted that to compare to Dublin...it would be like having 200+ cases a day in Dublin or more. WOW

Pop Cork: 542,868
Pop Dublin: 1,347,359

So there’s 2.482 times the population of Cork in Dublin.

So it would work out at 84 cases per scaled up to Dublin pop, which is giving Cork a similar level of cases as Dublin was having over the last few days.

We need to start publishing cases in per 100,000 figures as I’m finding, as is always the case in Ireland, we tend to see counties as identically comparable blocks.

I mean the counties go from 1.3m to 0.55 million and then you’re down 0.25 million for Galway and everything smaller than that is less than 200,000

11 of the 26 are less than 100,000, with Longford and Leitrim at less than 50,000.

Leitrim isn’t much bigger than a Dublin or Cork suburb.

The other issue I would like to see ironed out is urban cases per 100,000.

It’s hard to get a sense of what’s happening in Cork City for example if we are rolling in case loads from rural areas and meat processing outbreaks and so on.

ACitizenErased

Spleodar wrote: »

Pop Cork: 542,868
Pop Dublin: 1,347,359

So there’s 2.482 times the population of Cork in Dublin.

So it would work out at 209 cases per scaled up to Dublin pop, which is giving Cork a similar level of cases as Dublin was having over the last few days.

We need to start publishing cases in per 100,000 figures as I’m finding, as is always the case in Ireland, we tend to see counties as identically comparable blocks.

I mean the counties go from 1.3m to 0.55 million and then you’re down 0.25 million for Galway and everything smaller than that is less than 200,000

11 of the 26 are less than 100,000, with Longford and Leitrim at less than 50,000.

Leitrim isn’t much bigger than a Dublin or Cork suburb.

The other issue I would like to see ironed out is urban cases per 100,000.

It’s hard to get a sense of what’s happening in Cork City for example if we are rolling in case loads from rural areas and meat processing outbreaks and so on.

I think you're after making a b*lls of that calculation.
34 * 2.482 = 84..

Gradius

There are many secrets the government doesn't want you to know.

For instance, you are immune to the virus if you breathe backwards.

Funsterdelux

Gradius wrote: »

There are many secrets the government doesn't want you to know.

For instance, you are immune to the virus if you breathe backwards.

Hows does that work?

In through the mouth out through the nose?

GooglePlus

Gradius wrote: »

There are many secrets the government doesn't want you to know.

For instance, you are immune to the virus if you breathe backwards.

I heard that anyone who has died from Covid had a pre-existing condition called lungs. Open your eyes sheeple.

Gradius

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Hows does that work?

In through the mouth out through the nose?

Easy. Take a deep breath and let it out. Well it's just like that but in reverse.

Goldrickssan

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Hows does that work?

In through the mouth out through the nose?

In through the arse out through the ears

https://mobile.twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1308475255841841156

Gradius

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1308475255841841156

Seriously, people need to watch that film called "Contagion".

Theres a character played by Jude law that is a social media personality, and he's a charlatan spreading disinformation and doubt in order to become wealthy, making things much worse for everyone else in the process.

It's actually quite bizarre seeing fiction come to life.

TonyMaloney

Deleted User wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1308475255841841156

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1308475255841841156?s=20

beneath the tweet there's an icon that looks like an arrow pointing out of a box. click that and then "Copy link to tweet". Then just paste.

ACitizenErased

Gradius wrote: »

Seriously, people need to watch that film called "Contagion".

Theres a character played by Jude law that is a social media personality, and he's a charlatan spreading disinformation and doubt in order to become wealthy, making things much worse for everyone else in the process.

It's actually quite bizarre seeing fiction come to life.

Watched it back in March. Insane how alike to now it is.

Spleodar

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think you're after making a b*lls of that calculation.
34 * 2.482 = 84..

My phone rang mid calculation so you'll just have to excuse it - edited.

Gradius

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Watched it back in March. Insane how alike to now it is.

It's fairly accurate for a good reason, the cast and crew met with disease experts for consultation here in Europe.

DangerScouse

Cases now headed to a very bad place in the UK. Going to be a very bleak few months there as things fall apart. I think we are roughly 15-20 days behind them in Dublin with the rest of the country another 10 days back. We still have a window to act but it is closing, fast.

manofwisdom

Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?

normanoffside

manofwisdom wrote: »

Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?

It's a secret

Jim_Hodge

manofwisdom wrote: »

Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?

It's based on more factors than a simple case count per 100k

Spleodar

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think you're after making a b*lls of that calculation.
34 * 2.482 = 84..

It's something I'm actually getting a bit concerned about. I'm making an absolute bollox of minor calculations and really simple errors way too frequently.
I couldn't remember my phone number yesterday at all.

Widdensushi

DangerScouse wrote: »

Cases now headed to a very bad place in the UK. Going to be a very bleak few months there as things fall apart. I think we are roughly 15-20 days behind them in Dublin with the rest of the country another 10 days back. We still have a window to act but it is closing, fast.

You have a lovely way of building the tension, I hope you are a novelist or similar for a living.

ACitizenErased

DangerScouse wrote: »

Cases now headed to a very bad place in the UK. Going to be a very bleak few months there as things fall apart. I think we are roughly 15-20 days behind them in Dublin with the rest of the country another 10 days back. We still have a window to act but it is closing, fast.

Can you provide the modelling for your conclusions?

petes

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Can you provide the modelling for your conclusions?

It's such a complex algorithm they couldn't possibly divulge!

niallo27

DangerScouse wrote: »

Cases now headed to a very bad place in the UK. Going to be a very bleak few months there as things fall apart. I think we are roughly 15-20 days behind them in Dublin with the rest of the country another 10 days back. We still have a window to act but it is closing, fast.

Oh **** me, its like the 2 weeks behind Italy stuff from February. Have you anything remotely positive to say.

Renjit

DangerScouse wrote: »

Cases now headed to a very bad place in the UK. Going to be a very bleak few months there as things fall apart. I think we are roughly 15-20 days behind them in Dublin with the rest of the country another 10 days back. We still have a window to act but it is closing, fast.

Let the kids and adults have some fun. Show must go on :pac:

Spleodar

manofwisdom wrote: »

Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?

They’re factoring in the R0 number, which gives you a sense of how fast it’s likely to spread, things like ICU capacity, hospital capacity etc etc etc

There isn’t a simple calculation. It’s more of a risk assessment.

Gradius

Widdensushi wrote: »

You have a lovely way of building the tension, I hope you are a novelist or similar for a living.

He's right about the window of opportunity.

If this thing is still on rinse/repeat with lockdowns come January, I think it's fair to say public confidence in guidelines will be severely eroded.

Then you will have no path to victory, as now, AND an uncooperative population.

GeorgeBailey

manofwisdom wrote: »

Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?

Level 1 is incredibly unlikely before winter is over. Most optimistic bet would be that if a vaccine starts being rolled out and is seen as being effective that they'd move us to level 1 then and then after some time passes give the all clear and be done with levels altogether.

Widdensushi

Gradius wrote: »

He's right about the window of opportunity.

If this thing is still on rinse/repeat with lockdowns come January, I think it's fair to say public confidence in guidelines will be severely eroded.

Then you will have no path to victory, as now, AND an uncooperative population.

There won't be a lockdown, UK just announced a lockdown, the pubs have to close at 10 pm, there may be measures, shut the pubs, as for worrying about the people becoming uncooperative, that ship has sailed.

caveat emptor

Fairly serious in the UK with the penalties and restrictions there and them being told it’ll likely last 6 months. Hopefully our 3 week one will sort it out. Also interesting to see him say that cocooning is a load of crap as it’ll get to old people anyway and overrun the system of measures not in place.

Happydays2020

caveat emptor wrote: »

Fairly serious in the UK with the penalties and restrictions there and them being told it’ll likely last 6 months. Hopefully our 3 week one will sort it out. Also interesting to see him say that cocooning is a load of crap as it’ll get to old people anyway and overrun the system of measures not in place.

As much domestic politics as anything else....

firemansam4

Gradius wrote:

It's actually quite bizarre seeing fiction come to life.

ACitizenErased wrote:

Watched it back in March. Insane how alike to now it is.

I watched it earlier in the year as well, while a lot of stuff had a lot of similarities. The main big difference was that the fatality rate of the disease in that film was something like 30% and not 0.05% or what ever the true rate is now.

ACitizenErased

Very interesting thread. Some believe that since June, our testing methods have changed, and a higher amount of false positive tests are being returned.
https://twitter.com/kilkelly/status/1307052803957960704?s=20

polesheep

Looks like it's back in the nursing homes. Issue this time is staff moving between facilities. No doubt they'll blame the people in Oliver Bond and call for a lockdown.

landofthetree

polesheep wrote: »

Looks like it's back in the nursing homes. Issue this time is staff moving between facilities. No doubt they'll blame the people in Oliver Bond and call for a lockdown.

But that's literally how it gets into nursing homes.

GeorgeBailey

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

Level 1 is incredibly unlikely before winter is over. Most optimistic bet would be that if a vaccine starts being rolled out and is seen as being effective that they'd move us to level 1 then and then after some time passes give the all clear and be done with levels altogether.

When we get nearing that stage I reckon there will be some political "fun" going on. When a critical number (practically all vulnerable vaccinated and remainder vaccine program just commenced) we will be at that level, and then there'll be some hiccup or blunder about availability of further vaccines, with what would then be seen as an unnecessary continuation with any restrictions.

Plumbthedepths

landofthetree wrote: »

But that's literally how it gets into nursing homes.

Which is it, staff moving between facilities or people having a Rave (applying a very loose definition of Rave).

Goldengirl

amadangomor wrote: »

Good point but have to factor in how good the motorway system is and how ****e some of our normal roads are.

Yes roads up here to Belfast are great . That journey from Mitchellstown to Castletownbere is tougher going .

Jinglejangle69

polesheep wrote: »

Looks like it's back in the nursing homes. Issue this time is staff moving between facilities. No doubt they'll blame the people in Oliver Bond and call for a lockdown.

Or Tony Hoolahan.

Arghus

polesheep wrote: »

Looks like it's back in the nursing homes. Issue this time is staff moving between facilities. No doubt they'll blame the people in Oliver Bond and call for a lockdown.

Illustrative again of how "just isolate the vulnerable" is easier said than done.

Widdensushi

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes roads up here to Belfast are great . That journey from Mitchellstown to Castletownbere is tougher going .

Will ye stop, what few dubs haven't been down the last few months will be down

bb1234567

niallo27 wrote: »

Oh **** me, its like the 2 weeks behind Italy stuff from February. Have you anything remotely positive to say.

Hard to say anything positive about Europe at this minute, it's a pretty rapid decline of the situation, over 400 ICU admissions in the EU in the last 48 hours. Some positive news is it is stabilising in much of South America, it is really good news there has been a lot of suffering there in recent months.