Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

Martina1991

ACitizenErased wrote:

Are you familiar with using the assay that the NVRL uses? If not then we're just as clueless as each other, to be fair.

I think they use a Roche platform but im not sure. I think the poster mandrake might know.

I wouldnt say im clueless, I do perform PCR as part of my job, although not for covid testing.

growleaves

Wolf359f

Martina1991 wrote: »

Yes of course you should.

But people arent sterile. We're hosts to millions of bacteria and viruses that can/may cause interference.

People are also human, and when racks of identical small tubes are side by side theres always possibilities of things like cross contaminants or human error.

There are safety procedures and checks in place to prevent all that but my point is, nothing will be 100% perfect every time.

I didn't want to mention cross continamation.
But going by that, saying the false positive is based on all tests is incorrect so. It's based on the tests with a positive result.
And which was already pointed out, a positive result can't distinguish if you're just over the infection or presymptomatic. So as you say, people should still isolate as they could still be infections or become infections.

froog

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Are you familiar with using the assay that the NVRL uses? If not then we're just as clueless as each other, to be fair.

As far as i know martina actually works in this field. Whats your qualification\experience outside of googling stuff?

gipi

caveat emptor wrote: »

School outbreaks increasing.

https://twitter.com/DeeGilhawley/status/1308512102542438406?s=20

I spotted 2 open clusters linked to public houses in the table on that tweet, there had been 5 closed clusters for a long time in the table.

Goldengirl

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Hope you mean Quinn, Higgins is a national treasure

Yes thank you edited

bpb101

Has anybody noticed rte have stopped their daily push notifications of cases?
Or is it just me

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-is-covid-covid/

lukas8888

declanflynn wrote: »

The BBC have a nut job or two on everynight

The only chance Ryan would have of appearing on question time would be if he discovered a cure for Covid 19.

gmisk

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-is-covid-covid/

Can you maybe actually comment on what you are posting rather than just posting random links constantly?

What Username Guidelines

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Sorry I forgot you showed us your degree in COVID-19 testing...

Really am baffled by the attitude you’ve grown in the last few weeks on here. Informative posting and really decent analysis of numbers has turned into absolute showmanship and downright rudeness to anyone who may have a different view.

You’re telling posters to ignore people or “not bother” interacting because their views might be different or they hold them strongly. Sarcastically talking about degrees in testing after that poster said we’re not all equal in terms of knowledge, who was standing up for someone who does PCR testing as part of their job, and has been an absolute wealth of knowledge for those of us that don’t know about PCR testing.

Plenty of assumed information, anecdotal information, second hand information - don’t get me wrong here, all valuable in their own right - posted by you here over the last couple of months. And yet, when anyone else does similar, you jump down their throats for doing the exact same.

You can’t even wonder aloud here anymore about something unlikely but plausible without fear of being labelled a doom monger.

Tonight you posted a link that was disputed by many, right or wrong, and you’ve fought and fought it, even when the expert weighs in you just dismiss it as “ah sure neither of us know what we’re talking about”.

It’d be great to just have a discussion here tbh without all the extra attitude and snide comments.

Van.Bosch

bpb101 wrote: »

Has anybody noticed rte have stopped their daily push notifications of cases?
Or is it just me

Same here - wonder is it deliberate or has someone forgot!

What Username Guidelines

bpb101 wrote: »

Has anybody noticed rte have stopped their daily push notifications of cases?
Or is it just me

I haven’t had them in the last few days, hoping they had stopped, but my wife is still getting them.

Goldengirl

petes wrote: »

Who was off their head? Were you off your head watching it? She asked him to qualify an answer and he hadn't a notion what to say, looked like a deer in headlights. About time someone questioned these claims and it's certainly not going to be done by anyone in rte.

Yes. She asked him about locking down a town ship in South Africa , out of the blue !
No wonder he looked surprised:)
I think even Miriam was startled !

manofwisdom

Deleted User wrote: »

Level 1 is fantasy. 2021.


Level 3 I would say over 100 per 100,000 with a decent percentage of community transmission.

Level 1 looks a fantasy alright, Sligo for example should be level 1 right now, had only 11 cases the last 2 weeks and no covid case in Sligo Hospital.

Goldengirl

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

Hahahaha so you only believe RTE and a certain group of experts but not an ICU doctor that is exactly working in the hospital.

Makes perfect sense really since someone people can't be saved from their own ignorance.

You do know that is not real don't you ?
It is the Spanish version of Waterford Whispers

Non solum non ambulabit

Martina1991 wrote: »

The question is:
How many people who got a positive result were falsely told they were positve

Answer e.g.: 0.8%
So 0.8% of the people who got a positive result were false.

Not 0.8% of every one who was tested.

I think you are wrong based on this

“Under one percent means that for all the positive cases the likelihood of one being a false positive is very small.” No, Health Secretary. The FPR is the percentage of all the people you’ve tested who are found, falsely, to be positive.

gmisk

gmisk wrote: »

Can you maybe actually comment on what you are posting rather than just posting random links constantly?

It's obviously links you don't like.

It seems all across Europe we maybe exaggerating level of actual covid cases in this second wave. Country after country seem to be admitting they maybe overcounting true cases. Made sense in the first wave but not when we are locking people down again with a possible material exaggeration of disease prevalent in an area.

Goldengirl

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BothaBoy/status/1308507098490245133?s=20

Not 100, 000 tests per day surely , we should be so lucky

LessOutragePlz

Goldengirl wrote: »

You do know that is not real don't you ?
It is the Spanish version of Waterford Whispers

Can you show me where you found this out?

Hego Damask

BOOO !! Has the sky fallen down yet ?

manofwisdom

manofwisdom wrote: »

Level 1 looks a fantasy alright, Sligo for example should be level 1 right now, had only 11 cases the last 2 weeks and no covid case in Sligo Hospital.

Still an increase in a few months ago. Did they not go a month without a case. No county is at level 1. One county can easily infect another. All it takes is a case. Wasn't there a barber came back from Iraq and caused well over 20 cases in Sligo.

Non solum non ambulabit

declanflynn wrote:

she was all rte could afford, probably just off the boat from India with fake papers

There is no call for racism like this. Shame.

ACitizenErased

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

I think you are wrong based on this

I think it’s wrong too. Based on this explanation using 80% sensitivity and 99.9% specificity as an example and an actual positivity rate of 0.1%

in this scenario, 10,000 random people go for a Covid-19 test. With the infection level at 0.1 per cent, just ten people will have Sars-CoV-2 and 9,990 will not. Of the ten who turn up with an infection, 80 per cent will test positive, meaning eight people will be correctly identified while two walk away with a false negative.

And of the 9,990 not infected, all but ten will be correctly diagnosed as negative: hence the success rate of 99.9 per cent (the specificity). But ten will be told they have Covid-19, when in fact they don’t. That leaves us with 18 positive tests: eight from people who genuinely had the virus and ten who did not. So only eight out of 18 (44 per cent) of the infections are real.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-many-covid-diagnoses-are-false-positives-

bpb101

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

I haven’t had them in the last few days, hoping they had stopped, but my wife is still getting them.

One of you iphone and the other is android?
Im iPhone and havent got the covid one, but have for other things

Maybe they were annoying people, but id would have liken to keep them.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

https://twitter.com/OnCall4ON/status/1308486563739963392?s=20

Testing seems to a big problem at the moment around the world. Big economic and societal changes are being made currently based on positive covid results.

Renjit

declanflynn wrote: »

my mistake, if she came by plane

That's fine. A little bit of racism. As long as it is not on you :pac:

Funsterdelux

Getting close to the Witching Hour, all set off by David Quinn.

The irony.

ACitizenErased

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Getting close to the Witching Hour, all set off by David Quinn.

The irony.

I don’t think a genuine discussion on the testing methods the NVRL is using is out of place, to be honest.

Ficheall

caveat emptor wrote: »

False negatives higher therefore indicating more people get a negative result when they infect have the virus (false negative)
vs those who receive a positive result and do not have the virus (false positive)

Net result undercounting of people who have the virus.

No - there are far fewer real positives than real negatives, so even if the false negative rate is higher, they won't outnumber the false positives.

s1ippy

giveitholly wrote: »

If you are waiting all day wondering what the numbers will be like its not good for your mental health. Looking at weekly trends are much more helpful. That's why they should move away from daily figures and just release the weekly figures

I'm not waiting all day, just occasionally I'll think "what time is it? Oh its nearly half five, the cases are soon" but if I found it out earlier I could go "oh its nearly half five, glad I already know there's thirty cases today"

Hahaha

giveitholly

s1ippy wrote: »

I'm not waiting all day, just occasionally I'll think "what time is it? Oh its nearly half five, the cases are soon" but if I found it out earlier I could go "oh its nearly half five, glad I already know there's thirty cases today"

Hahaha

30 CASES, God those were the days!!!

Goldengirl

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Getting close to the Witching Hour, all set off by David Quinn.

The irony.

Not at all. If anyone could be in league with the Prince of Darkness, and tweeting at the same time , it would be him

Martina1991

Non solum non ambulabit wrote:

I think you are wrong based on this

ACitizenErased wrote:

I think it’s wrong too. Based on this explanation using 80% sensitivity and 99.9% specificity as an example and an actual positivity rate of 0.1%

Ok so you guys think a large proportion of our cases are false even though the assays and methods havent changed and are detecting the same virus, the same way it has from the start with over a 99% rate of detecting the virus when it is present.

s1ippy

giveitholly wrote: »

30 CASES, God those were the days!!!

I just drank 30 cases of beer so it was relevant

What Username Guidelines

bpb101 wrote: »

One of you iphone and the other is android?
Im iPhone and havent got the covid one, but have for other things

Maybe they were annoying people, but id would have liken to keep them.

Both iPhone. Only difference is I’m on iOS 14, could be that?

Although I’m getting other RTÉ notifications so not sure. Depending on their vendor, they pay for notifications sent, so maybe they’re sending them to a subset now. Not sure.

Goldengirl

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://twitter.com/TomFitton/status/1308513088191299591?s=20

Eh did you mean to post that here ?

Martina1991

Martina1991 wrote: »

Ok so you guys think a large proportion of our cases are false even though the assays and methods havent changed and are detecting the same virus, the same way it has from the start with over a 99% rate of detecting the virus when it is present.

It's the second wave though. Whole economies and societies are being closed down based on these test results. The decision to close societies is based on the assumption that those cases are infectious and a real threat to others.

Ficheall

Hego Damask wrote: »

BOOO !! Has the sky fallen down yet ?

Can people please give Hego a like for his joke. He's put a lot of effort into it.

Hego Damask wrote: »

BOOOOOOOOOOOO!!

Are we all dead yet ?

Hego Damask wrote: »

BOOO!!!!

Hego Damask wrote: »

BOOOOOOOOO!!!!

Hego Damask wrote: »

Has the sky fallen down yet ?

Goldengirl

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's the second wave though. Whole economies and societies are being closed down based on these test results. The decision to close societies is based on the assumption that those cases are infectious and a real threat to others.

So you did mean to post that tweet.

Goldengirl

Goldengirl wrote: »

So you did mean to post that tweet.

Not allowed to question if a case is a case. We need to find the real cases. There's obviously a problem with testing given hses disclosure tonight and problems all over the world or do we just ignore the problem. Covid is 100 per cent real and has caused alot of suffering.Testing is now a problem. Does this offend?

Wolf359f

Martina1991 wrote: »

Ok so you guys think a large proportion of our cases are false even though the assays and methods havent changed and are detecting the same virus, the same way it has from the start with over a 99% rate of detecting the virus when it is present.

Assuming that for every 125 tests, you will have 1 false positive (as some are saying)
It means New Zealand, Australia, Thailand, Lativa, Lithuania, Taiwan, Malayasia & Thailand, all of their positive cases are in fact false positives.

caveat emptor

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think it’s wrong too. Based on this explanation using 80% sensitivity and 99.9% specificity as an example and an actual positivity rate of 0.1%


https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-many-covid-diagnoses-are-false-positives-

What the 99% sensitivity is is not what you think it is. Looks like people think it is the positive predictive value. It's not.

A serious amount of misinformation flying around regarding this. It's not easy to grasp and I count myself when saying this. I doubt this will make any difference to people with entrenched opinions.

I honestly don't know if it's a problem. It might well be.
They need to clarify it.

Away With The Fairies

Why did the CDC remove their comment that the virus is airborne?

Goldengirl

Goldengirl wrote: »

Eh did you mean to post that here ?

Didn't realise your a mod now. You seem to be suggesting conspiracy theories etc. I'm reflecting the growing frustrations and limitations people are having with testing at present.

douglashyde

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/government-will-spend-9bn-on-covid-19-fight-next-year-39554685.html

"The Government will spend €9bn next year fighting Covid-19, Public Expenditure Minister Michael McGrath has revealed." my god.

Now maybe stupid old douglashyde has got the maths wrong, but: we're seeing virtually no deaths / slight increases in hospital admissions and most importantly an advanced mean age of death (83) and 98% comorbidity with COVID 19. We have livelihoods massively impacted, other health conditions neglected... life taken out of life.

Then, we as a country are committing 9BN to combat this virus.

I remember sitting with my wife in St Vincents (about 2016) with what was thought was an mild aneurism or tumor on the brain for a scan for 48 hours - turns out it was an atypical migraine.... Every year we go through the same-old winter of under funded health care with little money/effort to fix the problem..... We need serious capital investment across this country in general.

The level of bureaucracy, status quo and lack of critical thinking from what is suppose to be the 'the middle' parties is amazing.

Maybe the masses will need to feel it first hand before they question the obvious.... I'm not worried about about CV19, I'm worried about what comes next because of the induced lunacy.

Is there any update to be had in regards to Louth, Donegal and Waterford?

Are we expecting level 3 imposed soon, or is it more likely they will let the 3 week dublin restrictions run their course before closing anywhere else down?

Ficheall

caveat emptor wrote: »

I doubt this will make any difference to people with entrenched opinions.

You said false negatives would outweigh false positives because of the differing rates. This would be true if there were similar numbers of both positives and negatives in the population, but there aren't.
You also have to take into account the number of positives and negatives that actually exist.

It's like if I drop a beach ball off a roof in Leitrim vs. dropping a table tennis ball off a roof in central London. Sure, the beach ball would be more likely to catch someone a smack if there were the same number of pedestrians wandering about, but because there are a gazillion pedestrians for the table tennis ball to hit, it's more likely to hit someone.

ACitizenErased

Martina1991 wrote: »

Ok so you guys think a large proportion of our cases are false even though the assays and methods havent changed and are detecting the same virus, the same way it has from the start with over a 99% rate of detecting the virus when it is present.

With all due respect, how do you know the NVRL haven’t changed testing methods since March?

caveat emptor

Ficheall wrote: »

You said false negatives would outweigh false positives because of the differing rates. This would be true if there were similar numbers of both positives and negatives in the population, but there aren't.
You also have to take into account the number of positives and negatives that actually exist.

It's like if I drop a beach ball off a roof in Leitrim vs. dropping a table tennis ball off a roof in central London. Sure, the beach ball would be more likely to catch someone a smack if there were the same number of pedestrians wandering about, but because there are a gazillion pedestrians for the table tennis ball to hit, it's more likely to hit someone.

Yeah I see your point. You are right. I did a bit a research and I'm still a bit confused. I would hope that people getting sent for testing have a higher probability of having covid as in they had a close contact or symptoms etc. I guess it comes down to the probability of someone having covid getting sent for a test. I posted the formula and a visualisation to help. I also said it could well be an issue and the government need to clarify.

This is not my area of expertise so I'll not get involved if that's ok.

I'll follow my own advice and say "I don't know".

Fair play if you do know. I'll let other's like yourself keep me informed.