Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

lukas8888

is_that_so wrote: »

Social settings mainly - communions, parties, other gatherings etc. - like other places.

latest 14 day stats per 100k population Dublin 138,Louth 101 Donegal 96,Waterford 93,Cork 26.

Widdensushi

2ndcoming wrote: »

There will be tons of them.

As most young kids seem to be asymptomatic, and are the only cohort of society encouraged to remain in one room for most of the day mask free while also being the least likely to respect or understand social distancing, by the time one case is established you more than likely already have multiple cases in the class or possibly school at large.

This was what happened in one primary school in Kildare which is now closed for the moment. But it will 100% happen again. The only hope is that these outbreaks don't get out into the community or worse still to their older relatives.

Has there been a large primary school closed? I remember at the early stages of schools going back there was one but I think it was a 2 teacher school and it was a teacher or teachers contact that was positive, I thought it was mainly a class sent home.

beaz2018

I see the UK are predicting thousands more deaths based on Professor Ferguson's latest fortune telling exercise (sorry modelling). Didn't he predict 85k deaths in Sweden if they didnt apply strick lockdown? When might they start asking some questions? Of course all Professor Nolan has to do is send out a 10 chain tweet and everyone here laps it up.

Happydays2020

lukas8888 wrote: »

latest 14 day stats per 100k population Dublin 138,Louth 101 Donegal 96,Waterford 93,Cork 26.

Where are these community transmissions taking place?

Was it mistake to move immediately to 100% attendance in schools rather than blending?

Are schools a greater risk than retail?

Are schools a greater risk than socially distanced and well ventilated hospitality establishments?

Is it correct to have a religious position that no matter what schools will stay open?

bb1234567

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

what does lockdown even mean anymore

At this stage it can be anything from your local closing an hour early to the government welding your doors shut

2ndcoming

Widdensushi wrote: »

Has there been a large primary school closed? I remember at the early stages of schools going back there was one but I think it was a 2 teacher school and it was a teacher or teachers contact that was positive, I thought it was mainly a class sent home.

As I said, large school in Kildare was closed last week due to multiple confirmed cases.

Following the "stay home if you have symptoms" policy is pointless when most kids don't show any.

is_that_so

beaz2018 wrote: »

I see the UK are predicting thousands more deaths based on Professor Ferguson's latest fortune telling exercise (sorry modelling). Didn't he predict 85k deaths in Sweden if they didnt apply strick lockdown? When might they start asking some questions? Of course all Professor Nolan has to do is send out a 10 chain tweet and everyone here laps it up.

Nolan doesn't do death predictions and what he says is how he's done this for months. Unless we nip this in the bud now by keeping our distance and minimising contacts, we could have x daily cases in October is a straightforward message

iguana

Widdensushi wrote: »

There is no full lockdown coming, stop Scaremongering, there are less than twenty in icu with covid, there are other options to increase icu capacity if it was needed, lockdown is a long way down the list

How many were in the ICU on March 12th when schools closed? You don't need to have huge amounts of people in an ICU right now in order to understand what is most likely to happen. The realities of exponential growth mean it can go from seeming like a gradual increase in numbers to suddenly being overwhelmed. Why do you think Whitty and Valance have made clear their concern about what they expect to happen in the UK by November if very drastic action isn't taken?

GooglePlus

is_that_so wrote: »

Sure, it's a case of a mindset that is now different. Less panic about seemingly large numbers. 1000 cases a day will deliver a lot more ICU patients even if it's at a slower rate.

1000 a day with our current testing might only equates to what was reported as 300 a day earlier in the year (pulled that out of my arse but the point is there).

People need to be made aware of this to reduce the panic when we do hit 1000 case numbers.

Oranage2

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Where are these community transmissions taking place?

Was it mistake to move immediately to 100% attendance in schools rather than blending?

Are schools a greater risk than retail?

Are schools a greater risk than socially distanced and well ventilated hospitality establishments?

Is it correct to have a religious position that no matter what schools will stay open?

It's crazy how much the government backed themselves into a corner with their promise to keep the schools open no matter what, it looks like it will be impossible with the exponential increase in positive cases. The worrying thing is that there will be no planning for when it does happen.

BrianD3

Only 16 confirmed Covid cases in ICUs but also only 38 free ICU beds for the entire country :rolleyes: One serious road accident (e.g. a bus crash) could use up most of that. Obviously, so could a mere 2-3 Covid admissions per day for a couple of weeks.

Again, chickens are coming home to roost. Shambolic health system due to decades of mismanagement. Covid arrives. "Lockdown" for several months, hospitals postpone/cancel work, many people are afraid to attend anyway. Repeat of what happened in Lombardy's hospitals averted. However, most of those who die don't even get admitted into ICU. Colm Henry puts positive spin on this by talking about how our ICU death rate is lower than other countries.

Virus not eliminated, restrictions relaxed and now a backlog of non Covid health issues to be dealt with while Covid cases rise.

One tiny positive here is at least now we're (apparently) being given definite figures for our ICU capacity . A few months ago various different figures were being bandied about - even in the same press conference :rolleyes:

is_that_so

BrianD3 wrote: »

Only 16 confirmed Covid cases in ICUs but also only 38 free ICU beds for the entire country :rolleyes: One serious road accident (e.g. a bus crash) could use up most of that. Obviously, so could a mere 2-3 Covid admissions per day for a couple of weeks. Again, chickens are coming home to roost. Shambolic health system due to decades of mismanagement. Covid arrives. "Lockdown" for several months, hospitals postpone/cancel work, many people are afraid to attend anyway. Repeat of what happened in Lombardy's hospitals averted. However, most of those who die don't even get admitted into ICU. Colm Henry puts positive spin on this by talking about how our ICU death rate is lower than other countries.

Virus not eliminated, restrictions relaxed and now a backlog of non Covid health issues to be dealt with while Covid cases rise.

One tiny positive here is at least now we're (apparently) being given definite figures for our ICU capacity . A few months ago various different figures were being bandied about - even in the same press conference :rolleyes:

Colm Henry says it's currently 278 ICU beds up from about 220 in February.

mirrorwall14

Oranage2 wrote: »

It's crazy how much the government backed themselves into a corner with their promise to keep the schools open no matter what, it looks like it will be impossible with the exponential increase in positive cases. The worrying thing is that there will be no planning for when it does happen.

I’m listening to the radio saying that community transmission is a threat to schools, schools aren’t a threat to the community and my brain is going.... But if you don’t know where the cases are coming from then how can you say this?

Widdensushi

iguana wrote: »

How many were in the ICU on March 12th when schools closed? You don't need to have huge amounts of people in an ICU right now in order to understand what is most likely to happen. The realities of exponential growth mean it can go from seeming like a gradual increase in numbers to suddenly being overwhelmed. Why do you think Whitty and Valance have made clear their concern about what they expect to happen in the UK by November if very drastic action isn't taken?

The first lockdown was a reaction to the terrible situation in Italy. People have learned alot since then, about social distancing, wearing masks, the doctors have improved the treatment of the virus. It's a totally different situation.

seamusk84

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

I’m listening to the radio saying that community transmission is a threat to schools, schools aren’t a threat to the community and my brain is going.... But if you don’t know where the cases are coming from then how can you say this?

Heard that too...How does that make sense?

Are we just not allowed to say that schools "may" present an issue.

eagle eye

Widdensushi wrote:

The first lockdown was a reaction to the terrible situation in Italy. People have learned alot since then, about social distancing, wearing masks, the doctors have improved the treatment of the virus. It's a totally different situation.

Our numbers now don't agree with your thoughts.

OwenM

iguana wrote: »

How many were in the ICU on March 12th when schools closed? You don't need to have huge amounts of people in an ICU right now in order to understand what is most likely to happen. The realities of exponential growth mean it can go from seeming like a gradual increase in numbers to suddenly being overwhelmed. Why do you think Whitty and Valance have made clear their concern about what they expect to happen in the UK by November if very drastic action isn't taken?

Would you mind showing me any actual evidence of exponential growth trend in cases, beyond three data points?

Widdensushi

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

I’m listening to the radio saying that community transmission is a threat to schools, schools aren’t a threat to the community and my brain is going.... But if you don’t know where the cases are coming from then how can you say this?

The only European country that at the moment seems to be doing well with covid at the moment is Sweden, they never closed the schools so I think it is logical to adopt some of their approach.

eagle eye

Widdensushi wrote:

The only European country that at the moment seems to be doing well with covid at the moment is Sweden, they never closed the schools so I think it is logical to adopt some of their approach.

Where are you getting the numbers for Sweden?

TonyMaloney

OwenM wrote: »

Would you mind showing me any actual evidence of exponential growth trend in cases, beyond three data points?

I guess this is anecdotal

Nolan

“We believe the reproduction number is somewhere 1.3 and 1.7 in the country as a whole, so this disease is spreading rapidly,” he said. “If we look at the growth rate, it is growing by between 5 and 7 per cent per day. That means the disease is doubling every 10-14 days at this point.

“If the reproduction rate continues at 1.4, by October 14th we would be looking at 500-600 cases per day. All of us need to change our behaviour. If the reproduction rate is higher at 1.8, we would be looking at close to 1,200 cases per day by October 14th.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-more-concern-now-than-any-time-since-april-health-officials-warn-1.4356459

Plumbthedepths

screamer wrote: »

We threw everything we had at this virus last spring/ summer. We’ve little left now, and it’s now that the surge is going to come. A tough lockdown may be needed, but we cannot afford it, we couldn’t afford it back in spring either tbh. So, stock up your PPE, sanitizer etc.

Don't forget lots and lots of toilet roll.

is_that_so

Widdensushi wrote: »

The only European country that at the moment seems to be doing well with covid at the moment is Sweden, they never closed the schools so I think it is logical to adopt some of their approach.

We'd need to build a lot of accommodation to have 40% living alone and import a whole lot of Swedes to change our mentality. Strategies worldwide have been applied to suit local sensibilities and while there are a lot of similarities, what they did in Say Korea of r NZ may not work elsewhere.

DangerScouse

Oranage2 wrote: »

It's crazy how much the government backed themselves into a corner with their promise to keep the schools open no matter what, it looks like it will be impossible with the exponential increase in positive cases. The worrying thing is that there will be no planning for when it does happen.

The crazy thing is there are still some out there that don't see schools as a problem. The numbers literally sky rocketed after schools reopened.

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

Our numbers now don't agree with your thoughts.

In the first 6 weeks of the pandemic we had 8900 cases and 320 deaths, in the last 6 weeks we had 6353 cases and 30 deaths. The numbers very much agree with the users thoughts

DangerScouse

Widdensushi wrote: »

The only European country that at the moment seems to be doing well with covid at the moment is Sweden, they never closed the schools so I think it is logical to adopt some of their approach.

Ireland is nothing like Sweden in terms of how we live.

MerlinSouthDub

is_that_so wrote: »

We'd need to build a lot of accommodation to have 40% living alone and import a whole lot of Swedes to change our mentality. Strategies worldwide have been applied to suit local sensibilities and while there are a lot of similarities, what they did in Say Korea of r NZ may not work elsewhere.

20% of people in Sweden live alone, not 40%.

Are people living alone more or less likely to go out and meet other people socially, would you think?

Goldengirl

caveat emptor wrote: »

UK all over the shop regards getting back to the office.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1308310998294704130?s=20

https://twitter.com/conormlally/status/1259623003702407168?s=20

Excellent!:D

Widdensushi

eagle eye wrote: »

Where are you getting the numbers for Sweden?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/sweden

If you are planning on saying they are not testing the deaths have trickled out also

eagle eye

Deleted User wrote:

In the first 6 weeks of the pandemic we had 8900 cases and 320 deaths, in the last 6 weeks we had 6353 cases and 30 deaths. The numbers very much agree with the users thoughts

The numbers are growing all the time, so no they don't agree with his thoughts.
Obviously the deaths are lower because we are protecting the more vulnerable but the numbers are going up and up. We are heading for 3k cases per day by early November if we don't do something.

OwenM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I guess this is anecdotal

Nolan


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-more-concern-now-than-any-time-since-april-health-officials-warn-1.4356459

Not quite an anecdote, but when a scientist says 'We believe' I'm not reassured. Calculating a R number has a method surely?