Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

eagle eye

Widdensushi wrote:

If you are planning on saying they are not testing the deaths have trickled out also

They are not reporting their numbers very well. All I can find is that they had 1675 cases between the 11th and 17th September. That's the newest data I can find anywhere and it's not good either.

OwenM

DangerScouse wrote: »

The crazy thing is there are still some out there that don't see schools as a problem. The numbers literally sky rocketed after schools reopened.

The schools re-opened in every county but the numbers didn't sky rocket in every county, a correlation would be expected

CalamariFritti

DangerScouse wrote: »

The crazy thing is there are still some out there that don't see schools as a problem. The numbers literally sky rocketed after schools reopened.

Actually they skyrocketed since we mandated masks :pac:

is_that_so

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

20% of people in Sweden live alone, not 40%.

Are people living alone more or less likely to go out and meet other people socially, would you think?

It's 40% of households , nearly 2m people!

https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2019-09-11---swedes-prefer-to-live-alone-because-of-the-high-cost-of-housing-and-their-sanctification-of-independence-.rkAregP8B.html

I think it depends on the individual but they are likely to be alone in the high risk location of households.

CalamariFritti

So we're looking for excuses now why Sweden was outlier and couldn't possibly work elsewhere.

caveat emptor

https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1306481284189794304?s=20

is_that_so

OwenM wrote: »

Not quite an anecdote, but when a scientist says 'We believe' I'm not reassured. Calculating a R number has a method surely?

He regularly lists 4 methods. R0 at low numbers of cases is very hard to guess at. Even in March they believed with 95% confidence.

eagle eye

CalamariFritti wrote:

So we're looking for excuses now why Sweden was outlier and couldn't possibly work elsewhere.

How is Sweden an outlier with 1675 cases in a week?

Hrududu

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Actually they skyrocketed since we mandated masks :pac:

Ok guys we’re going to start opening things up again. We can now go to shops that were previously closed, get hair cuts, go to restaurants and some pubs, go to the cinema and if you play sports a lot of them are opening up again? Oh and please wear masks.

Numbers go up

Well clearly it’s the mask wearing that’s the problem!

Widdensushi

DangerScouse wrote: »

The crazy thing is there are still some out there that don't see schools as a problem. The numbers literally sky rocketed after schools reopened.

The numbers were only going one way before the schools opened, coincidentally our testing has been going up also, the fact that every schoolchild with a sniffle is sent for a COVID test now is also having an effect, not necessarily a bad one.

is_that_so

CalamariFritti wrote: »

So we're looking for excuses now why Sweden was outlier and couldn't possibly work elsewhere.

No, Sweden had its own problems and it may have worked for them but Swedes respond in a certain way to what their government says to them. It's just a strategy but one that is unlikely to be followed elsewhere.

wadacrack

CalamariFritti wrote: »

So we're looking for excuses now why Sweden was outlier and couldn't possibly work elsewhere.

Sweden have a compliant population

https://twitter.com/Oldboatie/status/1308394678044307457

is_that_so

wadacrack wrote: »

Sweden have a compliant population

https://twitter.com/Oldboatie/status/1308394678044307457

Absolutely , it's culturally very different to many other countries in Europe.

CalamariFritti

Hrududu wrote: »

Ok guys we’re going to start opening things up again. We can now go to shops that were previously closed, get hair cuts, go to restaurants and some pubs, go to the cinema and if you play sports a lot of them are opening up again? Oh and please wear masks.

Numbers go up

Well clearly it’s the mask wearing that’s the problem!

My point was that one statement is as true as the other. As in it may or may not be.

niamh247

Widdensushi wrote: »

The numbers were only going one way before the schools opened, coincidentally our testing has been going up also, the fact that every schoolchild with a sniffle is sent for a COVID test now is also having an effect, not necessarily a bad one.

Do you know there is not even temperature checking at schools. Some parents could just sending in kids who are already infected, may be without knowledge. Testing after having sniffle doesn't help the infections that might have already happened.

MerlinSouthDub

is_that_so wrote: »

It's 40% of households , nearly 2m people!

https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2019-09-11---swedes-prefer-to-live-alone-because-of-the-high-cost-of-housing-and-their-sanctification-of-independence-.rkAregP8B.html

I think it depends on the individual but they are likely to be alone in the high risk location of households.

As I said, it's 20% of people (slightly less, actually). Thanks for confirming. Personally, I think people living alone are more likely to get out and about, and so I'm very unconvinced that more single person households is the reason that Sweden are doing so well right now.

CalamariFritti

eagle eye wrote: »

How is Sweden an outlier with 1675 cases in a week?

The outlier is the trajectory of their curve. No spike then dip then bigger spike. Just an initial spike and on the down ever since.

All with no lockdown no masks kids in school all the way...

DebDynamite

wadacrack wrote: »

Sweden have a compliant population

https://twitter.com/Oldboatie/status/1308394678044307457

Kinda like a strict diet. Tell someone they can’t have something and they just want it more and will binge when they eventually break and come off the diet.

OwenM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

The outlier is the trajectory of their curve. No spike then dip then bigger spike. Just an initial spike and on the down ever since.

All with no lockdown no masks kids in school all the way...

While I believe Sweden is doing the right thing, we need to be clear - they did shut secondary schools and implement some social distancing but certainly not a Wuhan or Spain style lockdown.

Widdensushi

wadacrack wrote: »

Sweden have a compliant population

https://twitter.com/Oldboatie/status/1308394678044307457

I can't make out which line is Sweden, both are trending up whereas swedens deaths, hospital cases with covid are trending down

CalamariFritti

OwenM wrote: »

While I believe Sweden is doing the right thing, we need to be clear - they did shut secondary schools and implement some social distancing but certainly not a Wuhan or Spain style lockdown.

Or even an Irish style lockdown

is_that_so

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

As I said, it's 20% of people (slightly less, actually). Thanks for confirming. Personally, I think people living alone are more likely to get out and about, and so I'm very unconvinced that more single person households is the reason that Sweden are doing so well right now.

That's just one of the reasons but they also have a very strong sense of social solidarity that few other countries show. It really wouldn't work here at all. It's not like they are free, they have some restrictions.

2ndcoming

eagle eye wrote: »

The numbers are growing all the time, so no they don't agree with his thoughts.
Obviously the deaths are lower because we are protecting the more vulnerable but the numbers are going up and up. We are heading for 3k cases per day by early November if we don't do something.

The deaths are lower because we have a much more accurate accounting of active cases now. In March/April we probably had about 100,000 cases nationwide.

is_that_so

OwenM wrote: »

While I believe Sweden is doing the right thing, we need to be clear - they did shut secondary schools and implement some social distancing but certainly not a Wuhan or Spain style lockdown.

Sweden's approach may have worked for Sweden, having a population of Swedes makes it work a lot better! Distancing can work for all.

CalamariFritti

is_that_so wrote: »

That's just one of the reasons but they also have a very strong sense of social solidarity that few other countries show. It really wouldn't work here at all. It's not like they are free, they have restrictions in hospitality as well.

Well they're certainly not looking at another lockdown they didnt have in the first place.

growleaves

DangerScouse wrote: »

Ireland is nothing like Sweden in terms of how we live.

Why are we in a political union with this alien race of otherworldly beings?

The strange universe of Northern European Protestanism is one we daren't enter because we don't know what mind-bending things we will behold there.

AdamD

Deleted User wrote: »

In the first 6 weeks of the pandemic we had 8900 cases and 320 deaths, in the last 6 weeks we had 6353 cases and 30 deaths. The numbers very much agree with the users thoughts

Roughly extrapolating those comparisons would say we actually had about 67k cases rather than 8900 cases back then. Of course there are other variables like demographics catching it and better treatments, so isn't a fair comparison

I do think if you got the deaths by population age, say 0-10, 1-20 etc. during the first couple of months and multiplied them by the more recent death rates in those age brackets you'd get a decent estimate of the actual caseload back then

is_that_so wrote: »

Colm Henry says it's currently 278 ICU beds up from about 220 in February.

Any source for this? Pretty decent improvement if its true

is_that_so

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Well they're certainly not looking at another lockdown they didnt have in the first place.

Not the same country nor the same people any more than Chinese or Korean approaches worked for them.

is_that_so

AdamD wrote: »

Roughly extrapolating those comparisons would say we actually had about 67k cases rather than 8900 cases back then. Of course there are other variables like demographics catching it and better treatments, so isn't a fair comparison

I do think if you got the deaths by population age, say 0-10, 1-20 etc. during the first couple of months and multiplied them by the more recent death rates in those age brackets you'd get a decent estimate of the actual caseload back then

Any source for this? Pretty decent improvement if its true

In the IT article today. Probably elsewhere too.

lukas8888

is_that_so wrote: »

We'd need to build a lot of accommodation to have 40% living alone and import a whole lot of Swedes to change our mentality. Strategies worldwide have been applied to suit local sensibilities and while there are a lot of similarities, what they did in Say Korea of r NZ may not work elsewhere.

I see this 40% living alone quoted widely but the highest percentage i can find is 25%.Link please.