Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

Benimar

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

299 positive swabs out of 12495 tests. 2.4% positivity rate. Not too bad.

2nd highest non-weekend positive swab total in a long time (310 last Tuesday the only higher one in months).

I wouldn't be cracking open the champagne.

seamus

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

299 positive swabs out of 12495 tests. 2.4% positivity rate. Not too bad.

We appear to have about 50 from yesterday accounted for. So number could be 300 today.

Oranage2 wrote: »

It was at 1.2 about two weeks ago. It could easily double again mid October

It's been pretty stable the last five days. The most dramatic change was really July into August. The rate was 1.8% at the start of August, and has increased by about a quarter in the last 6 weeks.

Assuming half-decent adherence to the level 3 guidance over the next 3 weeks, a 5% positivity rate by mid-October is very unlikely.

Can't really confirm any trend till the end of this week or any longer projection until this time next week.

In short, we're a long way off any need for panic, but at the same time we already know from Feb/Mar that complacency when the numbers are low is a surefire way to lose control of them.

ACitizenErased

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

299 positive swabs out of 12495 tests. 2.4% positivity rate. Not too bad.

Looking at circa 350 I'd say

Happydays2020

seamus wrote: »

We appear to have about 50 from yesterday accounted for. So number could be 300 today.

It's been pretty stable the last five days. The most dramatic change was really July into August. The rate was 1.8% at the start of August, and has increased by about a quarter in the last 6 weeks.

Assuming half-decent adherence to the level 3 guidance over the next 3 weeks, a 5% positivity rate by mid-October is very unlikely.

Can't really confirm any trend till the end of this week or any longer projection until this time next week.

The positivity rate is interesting and I suppose is dependent on testing strategy. If the strategy changes due to capacity constraints and leans more to symptoms then it will naturally increase.

Akabusi

Just looking at that choir video, there seems to be about 25 in the room with a couple wearing masks. I wonder if those that wore the mask didn't become infected?

2ndcoming

eagle eye wrote: »

The care homes are now protected, older people are being far more careful. Those getting the virus now have far higher vitamin d levels and are generally healthier people.
That's why the deaths have dropped.
Honestly suggesting that counting prevents deaths is laughable.

I'm not suggesting that at all.

Goldengirl

caveat emptor wrote: »

UK looks to bee going towards zerocovid after all.

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1308398490570174468?s=20

But they are still leaving pubs open till 10pm .."The virus is spreading in people's homes ".:rolleyes:

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

Who makes up fictional characters Boggles? If you are going to make accusations you'd be better off just coming right out and say it rather than using snide insinuations

Sorry, I don't know what I was thinking, no way on an anonymous internet forum would people make stuff up to suit their narrative.

I apologize unreservedly, I don't what got in to me.

Santy2015

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Looking at circa 350 I'd say

The good ole Tuesday mass panic figure!!

Polar101

Goldrickssan wrote: »

Positivity is not allowed I'm afraid - being negative is the only way to stop Covid

You can still be positive, even if some people disagree with a post. It also doesn't mean a differing opinion is not allowed.

---

Looks like no big jump up in cases today, somewhat promising..

seamus

Happydays2020 wrote: »

The positivity rate is interesting and I suppose is dependent on testing strategy. If the strategy changes due to capacity constraints and leans more to symptoms then it will naturally increase.

It's really hard to get a baseline because the sample isn't random. If we were revert to the testing criteria back in April/May, we'd probably see the rate shoot up as we do fewer tests, but on a sample that's way more likely to have it.

Likewise if we do mass testing (say in meat plants), then we'd expect a much lower rate because the sample is kind of random.

If most of the tests are coming from GP referrals, then the rate will be up slightly again because most of those getting tested are sick in some way, so there's selection bias.

So trend is really important when it comes to the rate because that gives the best "randomness" in the sample. Day-to-day a 1% swing in either direction wouldn't be at all weird.

caveat emptor

This is definitely not a second wave, it's an optical illusion to make you think it's a wave.

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1308409736690368512?s=20

ACitizenErased

Latest positivity rate (7 days)

eagle eye

Goldrickssan wrote:

Positivity is not allowed I'm afraid - being negative is the only way to stop Covid

No, how we stop covid is being astute and careful.
Many who are considered to be negative are actually smart people who are being very careful.
I'm of the opinion that schools are a huge problem. Does that make me negative? I don't think so.
I'm of the opinion based on numbers that we are heading into another lockdown. This is not negativity, it's reading numbers and making predictions off of them.
I'm very hopeful that we'll have a vaccine be early March next year and then we can all go back to normal.
In the meantime I want protection from the virus, I want my kids to be safe.
If you are a person that is willing to risk it with your kid's then off you go but I can't do that because I'd never forgive myself if one ended up being one of the unlucky kids who suffers badly from this virus.
The reason I want the schools closed is because statistically a child is going to contract it in school and die. One death of a child is too many

Goldengirl

Zebra3 wrote: »

Whatever the % of people living alone in Sweden is, it's not gonna reflect properly how they interact.

Most adult Swedes if living alone will be in a relationship of some sort, could be very, very casual, with another adult.

And even if they have children it makes little difference, so a lot of those "living alone" figures are in close contact with another household with differing numbers of people.

Higher % living alone in Stockholm , also there is a culture of drinking at home with guests rather than going to pubs , generally , except in younger people.

Polar101

Goldengirl wrote: »

Higher % living alone in Stockholm , also there is a culture of drinking at home with guests rather than going to pubs , generally , except in younger people.

Yeah, because pints are bloody expensive there.

Plumbthedepths

eagle eye wrote: »

No, how we stop covid is being astute and careful.
Many who are considered to be negative are actually smart people who are being very careful.
I'm of the opinion that schools are a huge problem. Does that make me negative? I don't think so.
I'm of the opinion based on numbers that we are heading into another lockdown. This is not negativity, it's reading numbers and making predictions off of them.
I'm very hopeful that we'll have a vaccine be early March next year and then we can all go back to normal.
In the meantime I want protection from the virus, I want my kids to be safe.
If you are a person that is willing to risk it with your kid's then off you go but I can't do that because I'd never forgive myself if one ended up being one of the unlucky kids who suffers badly from this virus.
The reason I want the schools closed is because statistically a child is going to contract it in school and die. One death of a child is too many

I think everyone is aware you want the schools closed. Despite numerous posters telling you of the adverse affects on children not withstanding the piss poor internet in many parts of this country which makes remote learning impossible. It's just fingers in the ear from you .

hmmm

caveat emptor wrote: »

Lunatics.

https://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1308399435790000129?s=20

There hasn't been enough education of the public on the situations where Covid can easily spread. Indoors, poor ventilation, singing - I can think of few worse places to be if someone has Covid. I can see some people wearing masks, so this wasn't a room full of Covid-deniers - they just made a poor choice.

Goldengirl

2ndcoming wrote: »

If they don't live in the area they wouldn't be counted for that area though, so not sure that stands up. People from everywhere use those hospitals.

if you are referred from the community , or GP your swab result is counted in your own LHO.
I am talking about testing of patients being admitted or in hospital , or prior to surgery etc.
These swab results are counted within the population of the Hospitals area ,afaik.
Patients do not get these results back individually , The hospital get them and inform public health as appropriate.

1641

Goldengirl wrote: »

Higher % living alone in Stockholm , also there is a culture of drinking at home with guests rather than going to pubs , generally , except in younger people.

There was an interesting article from an Irishwoman (Eavan O'Dochartaigh) living in Sweden (not Stockholm) in last Sunday's Indo.



I moved from Galway to Umea, northern Sweden, with my family several months before Covid-19 arrived here. It was not a great year to move to a foreign country.
Since then, I have become so weary of reading about Sweden in the foreign press. Sweden did everything wrong. No, wait, Sweden did everything right. We should be like Sweden. To put it bluntly, you can't be like Sweden, because you are not Sweden. ..............
.......................There is simply more space here. Sweden is over six times the size of the Republic of Ireland, but with only twice the population. It helps to have space in a pandemic. This is one reason why it's ridiculous to compare Sweden's death rates with those of densely populated countries like the UK or the Netherlands..........
.........Teaching at Umea University will be carried out both online and in small groups on campus, but anyone who can do so is asked to work from home and people are advised to travel to campus by bike instead of public transport. Unlike in Ireland, this is an attractive option, thanks to the dedicated infrastructure for people who can walk or cycle. Like many people everywhere, I've been working at the kitchen table since March and have been asked to do so until January at least.
There are other factors that make the Swedish context quite particular. For example, the pub issue. Perhaps there are "wet" pubs in the southern metropolises of Gothenburg, Malmo and Stockholm, but any bars I have seen in Umea are really restaurants. So closing down pubs here would have had very little effect.
Even though the government didn't order places to close down, many have been closed anyway for the past six months. Museums and cultural centres here shut their doors in March, as did children's play centres, and have only reopened recently. Swimming pools and gyms remained open, but many did not use them.
There also seems to be a misconception abroad that the schools in Sweden have been open "all the time". Yes, they were open during term-time for the under-15s, but primary schools were closed for 10 weeks of summer holiday. Add to that the Swedish tradition of taking all of July off, which for many means staying in isolated summer houses and picking berries in the forest, and you can see some reasons why infection rates might have been going down.
There is also a huge difference between here and Ireland with regard to housing. Your average young Swede does not live in a house-share situation but is more likely to live in a self-contained apartment by themselves or with a partner. Add to that the importance placed on access to nature, and the ease of travelling by bicycle, and you have a greatly reduced chance of infection. ......................
..........Finally, one cannot help comparing Sweden's death toll with its neighbours, who have similar cultural, societal and environmental factors at play. With a death rate 10 times that of Norway, I don't think Sweden is being complacent now. Almost 6,000 people have died here so far and like everywhere in the northern hemisphere, winter is stretching ahead of us all like a great unknown.
https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/sweden-is-no-country-for-heartfelt-cries-of-were-all-in-this-together-39545211.html

robbiezero

Hopefully once its all over David Attenborough might do a documentary of this new species that has been found during the pandemic.
The Swede.

Yer man Stains last night on Claire Byrne said that they don't socialize. Any Swede I have encountered (through work) has always had quite a fondness for the socializing and swamping pints.

eagle eye

Plumbthedepths wrote:

I think everyone is aware you want the schools closed. Despite numerous posters telling you of the adverse affects on children not withstanding the piss poor internet in many parts of this country which makes remote learning impossible. It's just fingers in the ear from you .

I've read what you had to say and responded and your reply is that I was one of the lucky ones to have a great childhood.
I think the majority of kids have a great childhood and the ones who are abused aren't going to be more adversely affected by not being in school for a couple of months.
When a child dies from coronavirus picked up in school what are you going to do? Stick your fingers in your ear or accept responsibility for it like every parent who sent their kids back to school?

seamus

eagle eye wrote: »

The reason I want the schools closed is because statistically a child is going to contract it in school and die. One death of a child is too many

Statistically a child is going to contract it and die. Schools or no schools.

Many children have contracted illnesses in schools and died. Should we keep schools on a permanent lockdown just in case?

"One is too many" I'm afraid is nothing more than a high-horse soundbite, because you could claim it about anything at all as justification.

Based on what we currenly know, a child is up to 2.5 times more likely to die of 'flu than Covid, and up to 6 times more likely to die of another respiratory infection than Covid.

So why are you suddenly so worried about covid killing your kids when they have always been in far more danger from other illnesses?

Source; https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7260492/

OwenM

eagle eye wrote: »

.......The reason I want the schools closed is because statistically a child is going to contract it in school and die. One death of a child is too many

How do you propose to protect children car crashes or drowning, the two biggest killers of children.

Spleodar

I think Ireland sometimes suffers from some kind of self-flagellation syndrome. Overall, people are probably complying with the regulations better that’s I’ve seen and am hearing from much of continental Europe, certainly France and Belgium where I’ve a lot of contacts and we’re doing it without draconian enforcement.

The experience of living under lockdown in France was another level of restrictions entirely. Even at the peak of ours, we had a few gardai out and a bit of a ‘careful now. Down with that sort of thing’ type approach to policing. France had heavy handed cops and forms to leave your house to walk the dog.

I would suspect the main reason that Nordic and Scandinavian countries are more likely to be socially structured like they are is down to the climate. If you don’t cooperate in a country like that, historically you’d just have frozen to death.

Ireland, Britain, Western France etc have climates that are mostly pretty benign and at worst are damp and a bit unpleasant. They won’t generally result in you dying of frost bite or rapid freezing. As you get into Southern Europe, it gets even less relevant. There are parts of the south of france and Spain / Portugal / Italy etc that a missing wall on your house wouldn’t make much difference most of the time, never mind triple glazing. The weather’s just perfect most of the time.

A lot of that is why you’ve things like histories of extremely well done insulation, district heating, a lot of cooperation around housing, community etc in Scandinavia in a way you don’t necessarily have here to the same extent.

Also living in the back of beyond in most of Scandinavia on your own is just extremely difficult. Things like disposing of rubbish by land filling in cold countries is impossible, it just sits there most of the year, not rotting as the climate it (other than a few months of the year) too cold. That’s been a major driver of their waste management systems over the years / centuries and the preference for things lik municipal waste-to-heat incineration and, of late, recycling.

Ireland is fairly community focused and it’s absolutely not the USA and I think we are making a huge mistake if we’re assuming that we’ve those kinds of extreme individualist tendencies. We really don’t in my experience of it. Even being over showy about wealth here is considered vulgar and you will get ‘pulled down to earth’ again fairly quickly if you get notions.

We could do with tapping a bit more of our tendency towards community focus and ignoring the maniacs in the US.

Zebra3

OwenM wrote: »

How do you propose to protect children car crashes or drowning, the two biggest killers of children.

They don't count. Only deaths from the virus.

growleaves

OwenM wrote: »

How do you propose to protect children car crashes or drowning, the two biggest killers of children.

Ban cars. Ban access to water. Done.

zinfandel

Widdensushi wrote: »

The only European country that at the moment seems to be doing well with covid at the moment is Sweden, they never closed the schools so I think it is logical to adopt some of their approach.

sweden are barely reporting or testing. I have a friend in Stockholm , if they feel ill, they are just told to go home and isolate for a week, they are only being tested if they need to go to hospital.

Jim_Hodge

eagle eye wrote: »

No, how we stop covid is being astute and careful.
Many who are considered to be negative are actually smart people who are being very careful.
I'm of the opinion that schools are a huge problem. Does that make me negative? I don't think so.
I'm of the opinion based on numbers that we are heading into another lockdown. This is not negativity, it's reading numbers and making predictions off of them.
I'm very hopeful that we'll have a vaccine be early March next year and then we can all go back to normal.
In the meantime I want protection from the virus, I want my kids to be safe.
If you are a person that is willing to risk it with your kid's then off you go but I can't do that because I'd never forgive myself if one ended up being one of the unlucky kids who suffers badly from this virus.
The reason I want the schools closed is because statistically a child is going to contract it in school and die. One death of a child is too many

This letter in today's Irish Times sums up the stats

Sir, – In response to John Thompson’s letter (September 19th) on schools, the author fails to note that cases in schools are rising in line with cases generally and that evidence to date that schools are contributing to that rise is difficult to come by.

It is true that cases among school children are rising. Thus on August 31st, there were 120 cases among those aged between five and 14 years over the previous two weeks. This figure rose to 273 for the two weeks ending September 20th. This amounts to a rise in incidence of 2.275 times from three weeks earlier.

Yet for the general population the corresponding rise is 2.15 times – a very small difference indeed.

More pertinently, the rise in two-week incidence for children aged four and under, the vast majority of which are not in school settings, is actually higher (2.67 times), which suggests that whatever is driving the rise, it is not schools.

Overall, more than three weeks after schools have reopened, the share of infections among very young children and those aged five to 14 is almost identical – under two-thirds – what might be expected as a proportion of their share of the overall population (0.64 and 0.65 respectively).

The corresponding figure for those aged 15 to 24 is almost three times as high (1.71) and for those aged between 25 and 34 more than twice (1.37) that for children 14 years old and under.

It is, of course, early days, and the picture will become much clearer and more definitive within the next month or so.
Yet so far there is little credible evidence to support claims or fears that children attending schools are responsible for any significant rise in infection rates.

The “elephant in the room” Mr Thompson refers to looks increasingly like a mouse. – Yours, etc,

MerlinSouthDub

Benimar wrote: »

2nd highest non-weekend positive swab total in a long time (310 last Tuesday the only higher one in months).

I wouldn't be cracking open the champagne.

Lower than last Tuesday then - good news! As for the champagne, it is a breakfast drink, and it would be uncouth to drink it at this time of the day