Tour de France 2020 | Stage 17 (Grenoble - Méribel Col de la Loze, 170 km)

Inquitus

Big day at the tour, we finally hit the Alpes proper! Lets assume its Roglic v Pogacar, Pogacar needs to take 10-20 secs imho.

After the peloton got to taste the air of the Alps for the first time today, tomorrow they will finally truly arrive in the high mountains. What awaits is one of the hardest passes in France, the Col de la Madeleine, and the undoubtedly (or maybe not) hardest climb in the history of the Tour de France, the Col de la Loze.

Profile:



Map:



Timetable:

Start: 12:30

Intermediate Sprint: 13:53/13:48/13:44

Col de la Madeleine: 15:45/15:34/15:24

Finish: 17:38/17:21/17:05

Climbs:

First on the Menu tomorrow is the Col de la Madeleine, one of the Alps most famous passes, regularly used in the Tour, however last used from this side back in 2013. Back then Pierre Rolland took the maximum k.o.m. points at the top something he his certain to try again. The climb should have featured in the grand finale of last years Tour but was victim to the shortening of stage 20. A year later it finally makes its return albeit quite far out and looking at the final climb with relatively little chance of moves from the main gc guys.



That however was the easier climb of the day as the stage finishes on a completely new climb, that has actually only been paved a few years back. The Col de la Loze is a pass that connects the famous skiing areas of Méribel and Courchevel, although of course the riders never descend down to Courchevel on this route. The profile doesn't look that bad as long as they stay on the old road to the town of Méribel, but once they arrive on the new road it's getting steeper and steeper with the last 5 km having an average gradient of 10%. That on well over 2000 metres of altitude should be a good recipe for carnage. Let's hope the riders will deliver.



General classification after Stage 16

Primoz Roglic
Tadej Pogacar + 0.40
Rigoberto Uran + 1.34
Miguel Ángel López + 1.45
Adam Yates + 2.03
Richie Porte + 2.13
Mikel Landa + 2.16
Enric Mas + 3.15
Tom Dumoulin + 5.19
Nairo Quintana + 5.43

Points classification after Stage 16

Sam Bennett 269
Peter Sagan 224
Matteo Trentin 212
Bryan Coquard 166
Caleb Ewan 158

Mountains classification after Stage 16

Benoît Cosnefroy 36
Pierre Rolland 36
Tadej Pogacar 34
Primoz Roglic 33
Nans Peters 32

Young riders classification after Stage 16

Tadej Pogacar
Enric Mas + 2.35
Egan Bernal + 18.24
Valentin Madouas + 1.20.34
Daniel Felipe Martinez + 1.23.51

neris

This will go off with a bang and hopefully finish with a bang for the stage & GC.

Keeks

How the stage will pan out:

Trentin to try and get in a Breakaway.
Boar to hammer it up Allevar Les Bains in an effort to drop Sam
Ewan will be 2 minutes down at this stage already (saving his legs for Sunday)

Then we will see a breakaway of the "not in contention" GC riders (Martin, Bernal etc) up Col de la Madeleine

Pogacar will try to attach Roglic with about up Col de la Loze but Jumbo will be setting a too high pace for him to get to much of a chance.....it will only in the the last 2-3k

geotrig

Bernal is a dns today as far as i see .... I would have thought it was a stage for Quintana to attack on up until this week. No idea on who wins but has to be close call on pogacar / roglic

Inquitus

Keeks wrote: »

Jumbo will be setting a too high pace for him to get to much of a chance.....it will only in the the last 2-3k

Jumbo have been a mixed bag, very strong on Sun, but they self imploded last week, interesting to see which train shows up today, plus its hella steep the final.

nc6000

Bernal gone....

https://twitter.com/guardian_sport/status/1306138457463492608

retalivity

That last ~4.5k will be a free for all - all above 2000m with average gradients of 10%+.

Don't see Jumbo having any more than 3 or so with them at that point, and however is feeling good/bad could gain/lose minutes.

redlead

How do they decide who wears the king of the mountains jersey with two riders on 36 points out of interest?

I just have a gut feeling that Pogacar is going to have a big day today and win the stage with some to time to spare. Roglic is bound to get exposed on that last climb at some stage and Pogacar has just been impressing me that bit more. I think he's been targeting this one.

Roglic may end up regretting riding so conservatively. I know from a team perspective it makes sense what they have been doing setting such a high pace in the peloton, but should he have tried to put in the individual effort to increase his gap a couple of times. There's nothing in the GC really considering there's a TT to come.

ratracer

Just to point out, the times in the copy/ paste for the stage are French time, Irish time is an hour earlier, so the intermediate sprint will be around 12.45.

Inquitus

ratracer wrote: »

Just to point out, the times in the copy/ paste for the stage are French time, Irish time is an hour earlier, so the intermediate sprint will be around 12.45.

Aye 11:30am Irish start, all times in local French time.

dastardly00

redlead wrote: »

How do they decide who wears the king of the mountains jersey with two riders on 36 points out of interest?

From the Rule book

In the event of two riders being equal on points in the best climber classification, the rider with the most first places at the summit of super-category passes or climbs will be declared the winner. If the riders are still tied, first places taken on category 1 passes or climbs will be used to split them. It follows that first places taken at the summit of category 2 passes, category 3 and category 4 hills and passes can also be used to break a tie, with the general classification used as a last resort.

MPFGLB

I hope that a rider other than Rog or Pog has ago from the GC

That would stir things up ...only Landa or MAL could do it or are credible threats

Quintana yes too but he is injured and way down on GC

Richie Porte and Uran will follow I think

Boscoirl

Richie Porte is just delighted he hasn't crashed out yet

neris

Itv just showed part of the last climb from the tour de lavenir last year and it looks savage

donfers

No way Sam is getting dropped on Allevar Les Bains - it's early in the stage so he should have the legs to get over that even if Bora put the pedal down

....if he takes the intermediate sprint today then it is looking very very good for Sunday

Only concern really is if he survives the Col de la Loze which is an absolute monster

Inquitus

donfers wrote: »

No way Sam is getting dropped on Allevar Les Bains - it's early in the stage so he should have the legs to get over that even if Bora put the pedal down

....if he takes the intermediate sprint today then it is looking very very good for Sunday

Only concern really is if he survives the Col de la Loze which is an absolute monster

I think they'll all let a break go, Bora will lose points to Sam in the Intermediate and DQS have no reason to chase for 2-3 points gained. Just my 2c!

PatM65

DQS need to make sure the race stays together until after the Intermediate Sprint today.

Sam needs to take every opportunity to score points and extend the gap to Sagan. I don't think it's enough to allow 15+ riders up the road to take the points. Keeping the status quo might not be enough later in the race.

Mechanical for Sagan? Allez Sam !!!!!

Boscoirl

Mechanical for Sagan? oops

MPFGLB

Sagan in trouble at the back

Boscoirl

Sam and Trentin have gone for it

Dodge

Sam tracking Trentin today

The end of this stage is insane. The gruppeto might be 100 strong

mcgratheoin

PatM65 wrote: »

Sam needs to take every opportunity to score points and extend the gap to Sagan. I don't think it's enough to allow 15+ riders up the road to take the points. Keeping the status quo might not be enough later in the race.

I think he's better off leaving a break go and not running the risk of being dropped on the little climb by Sagan & Trentin hammering it.

It's not being left to go only 10 seconds and loads trying to go across.

retalivity

Carapaz and Kamna up the road again, with JA, Dan Martin & Izaguirre
Strong group if this stays away

Timing saying Ewan has been dropped.

Inquitus

Deleted User wrote: »

Timing saying Ewan has been dropped.

If he doesn't get back on he's out.

Dodge

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Timing saying Ewan has been dropped.

TV showed it too. Greipal was first to go. Think it’ll calm down after the sprint though

letape

Five leaders have a gap of over 1 minute and the pace in the peloton has slowed now. Looks like that’s the break settled.

neris

Assume this is greipels last year??

Dodge

Bennet gains 2 on Sagan and 3 on Trentin

Job done