Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

quokula

GooglePlus wrote: »

Looking back at history, as a human race we have had a very good run of stability over the last 75 years or so but it looks like we've fallen into the eyes of the textbooks of the generations ahead of us, unfortunately.

The comforts we know can't be sustained right now and that's just the reality of the situation, there's nobody to blame. We can be seen as a country who took a measured response and saved as many lives as possible or we can be the country who had it all in front of them, were advised by the experts, and still walked into the line of fire to save a few jobs that will be lost anyway down the line.

Very well said. A lot of people seem to think the government has total control over nature and is just deciding what to do on a whim. The fact is that the virus is what it is and some measures are needed to save as many lives as we can. If gravity didn't exist and then it did I swear there'd be a cohort of people complaining about the government not letting them walk off cliffs anymore.

The crazy thing is that we've seen ample evidence in March, that locking down hard and early has proven to not only be better for people who are pro-not-dying, but also allows the lockdown to be shorter and limits the economic damage relative to doing it once things are really out of control. Level 5 now is the best chance we have of not being in Level 5 and seeing family safely at Christmas.

bennyl10

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Not something that's changed as of today as the tweet below shows
https://twitter.com/margaretb2010/status/1313117682980532227?s=19

The important part is that the website is now showing level 5 restrictions for schools as current plan


Which it wasn’t before mid morning today, so they are clearly editing to bring in line with material

And it’s a bit coincidental it’s being done today no?

DeanAustin

CalamariFritti wrote: »

This couldn't be further from the truth. The reality is after an initial panic which nobody has a problem with we continue to piss our pants driven by media frenzy and political cowardice over a so called disease that is dangerous to a tiny fraction of the population. We didnt know that in March/April so no problem there but we do know this by now but yet we are determined to make the same crazy knee jerk reaction again. Plus we had 6 months to prepare and get our act together and today we must read that ICU capacity is practically at the brink with 20 covid patients in there and we have outbreaks in 31 nursing homes. Fantastic. Lets start clapping again, make Tony Taioseach and report our neighbours for not distancing enough. Ffs.

I still have no idea from anyone advocating lockdown what the end game is. Without a vaccine, we're going to keep locking down and destroying lives and the economy. I know the alternative isn't a good choice either but I can see the logic in learning to live with this.

Could someone please tell me what the long term aim is if we lockdown every time the numbers spike?

What Username Guidelines

seamus wrote: »

So this brings up a few thoughts. Most of the issues raised come from socialising and home visits. Too many people seeing too many people.

So it seems clear that's the part we need to target. We need to curtail socialising, in a big way.

But NPHET have been given a five level plan to choose from.

I'm wondering if it's the case that Dr. Holohan is saying, "We need to implement the socialising restrictions in level 5, but since this is all we have to choose from, then that's what I'm going to recommend."

If the outcome of today's meetings was to recommend zero visitors to homes, zero social gatherings, no weddings, communions or confirmations, closed pubs, but all other business was allowed to stay open, then I think that would be a much easier pill for people to swallow.

It's the recommendation of absolute lockdown that has peoples' back up.

Absolutely, this would be a much fairer and pragmatic approach. The issue is that whether we do this, go to level 5, or go to some new level 9, the people socialising in eachothers' homes won't stop, at least the more problematic gatherings. So I can't see a massive impact in any set of restrictions unless we can somehow curb that behaviour.

I've no idea how we could tbh.

Also, check this out:
The population of the town is 496. Rate in the town is now 20,000 per 100,000.
https://twitter.com/DundalkAllan/status/1312877954330955777?s=20



Maybe GAA is the new US tourists?
https://twitter.com/kevincronin2000/status/1313035100502843392?s=20

stephenjmcd

bennyl10 wrote: »

The important part is that the website is now showing level 5 restrictions for schools as current plan


Which it wasn’t before mid morning today

But was already quite clearly in the booklets being sent to homes which were put together well before latest recommendations made by NPHET last night so there was already a change going back to last week you can safely assume.

It just says advice at the time.

GooglePlus

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Not something that's changed as of today as the tweet below shows
https://twitter.com/margaretb2010/status/1313117682980532227?s=19

That's the language for level 5. What's Richard Chamber's point, has the site updated to show that the situation now matches level 5?

is_that_so

Eod100 wrote: »

Ok no to that, what will they do instead?

3+ for the rest with 4+ for Dublin and Donegal? Timescale 2 weeks minimum?

GooglePlus

stephenjmcd wrote: »

But was already quite clearly in the booklets being sent to homes which were put together well before latest recommendations.

It just says advice at the time.

I think his point is that the live advice has moved to level 5 language? Maybe a premature update?

drunkmonkey

Stheno wrote: »

Meeting with the CMO has ended

Hopefully via a pistol duel at 10 paces.

seamus

Hamsterchops wrote: »

(If level 5 has to be introduced) then I'd rather they took the short-sharp-shock approach and brought it in now, thereby leaving enough room for us to exit the tunnel and return to level 2 just before Christmas.....

People need to stop with this "short, sharp shock" thing in the hope that there'll be few or no restrictions come Xmas.

Christmas will not be normal. You will not be meeting ten mates in the pub. You will not be going to Xmas parties. You will not be doing a tour of houses on Xmas day to see all the cousins, aunties and grannies. Not even if cases are below 100.

The approach to this requires that we find a sustainable way of managing it. A lockdown/surge/lockdown/surge approach will yield less effectiveness every time there's a lockdown, and a bigger surge every time it's lifted.

Gradius

DeanAustin wrote: »

I still have no idea from anyone advocating lockdown what the end game is. Without a vaccine, we're going to keep locking down and destroying lives and the economy. I know the alternative isn't a good choice either but I can see the logic in learning to live with this.

Could someone please tell me what the long term aim is if we lockdown every time the numbers spike?

Need to isolate the country and attempt to eradicate the disease.

I'd rather live normally in a reduced economy than this downward spiral of insanity of a ruined, disease ridden country.

The appetite for attempting this isn't here yet, but come next year it'll be a different story.

Oranage2

It's like '1986' delete all evidence, this is the truth and it has always been the truth

TexasTornado

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Seems the government are going with Level 5 if they're updating the document today

Inevitable really. Be it today or next week it needs to happen

tobefrank321

GooglePlus wrote: »

We're at a much earlier stage of the curve, so it might not be the impossible task you think it is. The virus was rampant when we first locked down, we just didn't know it. If we get in there early, we might actually set an example in Europe, for once.

I've no doubt it was far worse back in April. Then we likely were missing 9 out of 10 cases and there was thousands infected daily.

Nowadays with asymptomatic cases and testing running at maximum we are still missing cases, perhaps 1 out of 2.

Assuming the real figure is 1000 a day, even if we had an R0 of 0.5 (unlikely with schools, creches and colleges open), it would take about a month to get us to about 100 a day, which would be early November.

But what good is 100 a day? Once restrictions are eased we will be back at 500 a day in no time, probably early December. Do we lock down again? Or more likely will the CMO say in early November that cases are not low enough.

Which is why lockdowns are not sustainable. By 1st January thousands more businesses will be destroyed.

The HSE had 6 months to boost ICU and hospital beds. They did nothing.

Sad thing is there isn't one person in cabinet with the balls or brains to question NPHET or HSE. They are all sheep.

stephenjmcd

GooglePlus wrote: »

I think his point is that the live advice has moved to level 5 language? Maybe a premature update?

The website updated to what they're issuing to houses, something that was put together well before the weekend so not exactly something stemming from last nights recommendations when its in the printed up material being sent around the country. Material that would have been put together over the last week or more

GooglePlus

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Hopefully via a pistol duel at 10 paces.

The CMO has the fastest hand in the east by the looks of things.

Danno

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Absolutely, this would be a much fairer and pragmatic approach. The issue is that whether we do this, go to level 5, or go to some new level 9, the people socialising in eachothers' homes won't stop, at least the more problematic gatherings. So I can't see a massive impact in any set of restrictions unless we can somehow curb that behaviour.

I've no idea how we could tbh.

Also, check this out:
The population of the town is 496. Rate in the town is now 20,000 per 100,000.
https://twitter.com/DundalkAllan/status/1312877954330955777?s=20

Maybe GAA is the new US tourists?
https://twitter.com/kevincronin2000/status/1313035100502843392?s=20

Ideal situation to test out the herd immunity theory.

What Username Guidelines

929 positive swabs over past 48hrs

Presume error on tests, unless 1 completed is correct. 92,900% positivity rate

EDIT: 23,462 tests completed for a +ve rate of 3.95%

Widdensushi

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

929 positive swabs over past 48hrs

That's an improvement

GooglePlus

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The website updated to what they're issuing to houses, something that was put together well before the weekend so not exactly something stemming from last nights recommendations when its in the printed up material being sent around the country. Material that would have been put together over the last week or more

Why is he sharing that so, he's a lad who's fairly on the ball. I can't even find the page that he's on..

Sawduck

Anyone know when we might find out if we are going back into lockdown, is there a press conference or something

is_that_so

Danno wrote: »

Ideal situation to test out the herd immunity theory.

This is probably a better example, from Brazil.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/10/coronavirus-manaus-brazil-city-herd-immunity-covid-19-pandemic/

thelad95

Sawduck wrote: »

Anyone know when we might find out if we are going back into lockdown, is there a press conference or something

I reckon there will be an announcement tonight

DeanAustin

Gradius wrote: »

Need to isolate the country and attempt to eradicate the disease.

I'd rather live normally in a reduced economy than this downward spiral of insanity of a ruined, disease ridden country.

The appetite for attempting this isn't here yet, but come next year it'll be a different story.

Without a vaccine, you can't eradicate the virus unless everyone else eradicates that too. Look around the world or just look across the water. No one in Europe is getting close to eradicating it. New Zealand, who are better placed to do it, thought they'd eradicated it and it got back in. I'd say "unless you become North Korea, you have to learn to manage it" but even North Korea has had cases.

Locking down is not a viable long term or even medium term solution.

Hooked

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I've no doubt it was far worse back in April. Then we likely were missing 9 out of 10 cases and there was thousands infected daily.

Nowadays with asymptomatic cases and testing running at maximum we are still missing cases, perhaps 1 out of 2.

Assuming the real figure is 1000 a day, even if we had an R0 of 0.5 (unlikely with schools, creches and colleges open), it would take about a month to get us to about 100 a day, which would be early November.

But what good is 100 a day? Once restrictions are eased we will be back at 500 a day in no time, probably early December. Do we lock down again? Or more likely will the CMO say in early November that cases are not low enough.

Which is why lockdowns are not sustainable. By 1st January thousands more businesses will be destroyed.

The HSE had 6 months to boost ICU and hospital beds. They did nothing.

Sad thing is there isn't one person in cabinet with the balls or brains to question NPHET or HSE. They are all sheep.

The bit in bold is my main gripe. They asked so much of us - and did sweet fook all themselves...

TexasTornado

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

929 positive swabs over past 48hrs

Presume error on tests, unless 1 completed is correct. 92,900% positivity rate

Christ :eek:

Benimar

Widdensushi wrote: »

That's an improvement

It was 672 last weekend and 647 the weekend before.

Also, a positivity rate of almost 4% isn't good.

Benimar

Benimar wrote: »

It was 672 last weekend and 647 the weekend before.

Also, a positivity rate of almost 4% isn't good.

this chap needs to shut the foook up,

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/coronavirus/ireland-lockdown-health-chief-warns-of-levels-6-to-10-and-curfews-being-introduced/ar-BB19IwEi?li=BBr5KbJ

stephenjmcd

GooglePlus wrote: »

Why is he sharing that so, he's a lad who's fairly on the ball. I can't even find the page that he's on..

This would be the one
https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/2dc71-level-5/

Hooked

DeanAustin wrote: »

Locking down is not a viable long term or even medium term solution.

And we've already tried the Medium Term approach. No dice!

Nphet?

Inept more like!!!

B.A._Baracus

Sawduck wrote: »

Anyone know when we might find out if we are going back into lockdown, is there a press conference or something

Meant to be a decision made tomorrow. But the official 3 week Dublin lockdown is meant to end this week. So government may hold off until Friday before saying level 4 or 5.

The announcement of the 3 week lockdown itself was pushed back itself (they initially said they would announce it on a Tuesday but that turned to Friday)

BringBackMick

TexasTornado wrote: »

Christ :eek:

This kind of surmises how not to pay attention to anything you post.

This is 48hrs of swabs not 24hrs and actually to most level headed people monitoring this would be seen as an okay number and not a sign of large surge similar to what is occurring in NI

shocksy

Widdensushi wrote: »

That's an improvement

Wrong, it's got much worse and the positivity rate is very high too.

GooglePlus

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I've no doubt it was far worse back in April. Then we likely were missing 9 out of 10 cases and there was thousands infected daily.

Nowadays with asymptomatic cases and testing running at maximum we are still missing cases, perhaps 1 out of 2.

Assuming the real figure is 1000 a day, even if we had an R0 of 0.5 (unlikely with schools, creches and colleges open), it would take about a month to get us to about 100 a day, which would be early November.

But what good is 100 a day? Once restrictions are eased we will be back at 500 a day in no time, probably early December. Do we lock down again? Or more likely will the CMO say in early November that cases are not low enough.

Which is why lockdowns are not sustainable. By 1st January thousands more businesses will be destroyed.

The HSE had 6 months to boost ICU and hospital beds. They did nothing.

Sad thing is there isn't one person in cabinet with the balls or brains to question NPHET or HSE. They are all sheep.

There's plenty of brains in cabinet, let's not assume we're more intelligent than our government and the numerous advisors they have at their disposal.

You make a good point though and it may just be another pause on the inevitable. If the pause button isn't pressed, people who are anti-lockdown better be pro-health service breakdown so because that's how it's going to go without intervention.

ixoy

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

92,900% positivity rate

Jaysus, that's some positivity rate - guess they're really really sure :pac:

Jinglejangle69

Hooked wrote: »

The bit in bold is my main gripe. They asked so much of us - and did sweet fook all themselves...

Should have used all the returning health staff and built a dedicated ICU hospital for covid patients.

That's what all this lockdown is about.

Instead they only hired 80 returning professionals after issuing a plea to all come home.

Yeah it would have probably cost a few billion but we already are 30 billion worst off and God knows how much more.

Useless dimwits the lot of them.

drunkmonkey

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I've no doubt it was far worse back in April. Then we likely were missing 9 out of 10 cases and there was thousands infected daily.

If I was in Professor Nolans shoes i'd be starting the graphs back in November with huge community transmission to explain the instant sharp death rate in March.
Instead the charts were presented with show it killed immediately once it arrived, that didn't happen, it's one of the biggest lies out there.

Gradius

DeanAustin wrote: »

Without a vaccine, you can't eradicate the virus unless everyone else eradicates that too. Look around the world or just look across the water. No one in Europe is getting close to eradicating it. New Zealand, who are better placed to do it, thought they'd eradicated it and it got back in. I'd say "unless you become North Korea, you have to learn to manage it" but even North Korea has had cases.

Locking down is not a viable long term or even medium term solution.

Listen, the likes of India are never getting rid of this. There is no living with this, evidenced by the shoite show to date.

We need to isolate our country.

Again, a reduced economy where life is normal is infinitely preferable to this craziness that's dragging us nowhere but down.

The luxury of avoiding the inevitable is time based, and that time is running out while people shout at the clouds about the inconvenience of it all.

KrustyUCC

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

929 positive swabs over past 48hrs

Presume error on tests, unless 1 completed is correct. 92,900% positivity rate

Hmmm could be over 600 cases again today as only 364 announced yesterday

is_that_so

Sawduck wrote: »

Anyone know when we might find out if we are going back into lockdown, is there a press conference or something

DoH one is tonight. I imagine they'll review the CMO meeting first. There is a Cabinet meeting tomorrow so that's a more likely place to reach a decision and they'll be in no rush to announce a Level 5 if that's the call.

quokula

DeanAustin wrote: »

I still have no idea from anyone advocating lockdown what the end game is. Without a vaccine, we're going to keep locking down and destroying lives and the economy. I know the alternative isn't a good choice either but I can see the logic in learning to live with this.

Could someone please tell me what the long term aim is if we lockdown every time the numbers spike?

Killing fewer people?

I really don't see how staying close to home for a few weeks is such a hardship compared to the alternative. We did it once and the economic impact proved to be lower than expected.

Stay home for a few weeks -> live relatively normally for several months -> stay at home for a few weeks -> live relatively normally for several months -> repeat if necessary until vaccine or treatment or easy quick testing or (eventually) herd immunity

The alternative is do nothing -> millions dead -> herd immunity

mloc123

bennyl10 wrote: »

The important part is that the website is now showing level 5 restrictions for schools as current plan


Which it wasn’t before mid morning today, so they are clearly editing to bring in line with material

And it’s a bit coincidental it’s being done today no?

The website was NOT updated, that was what they listed under level 5 weeks ago... I read it a day or two after they launched the 5 level plan.

DeanAustin

Gradius wrote: »

Listen, the likes of India are never getting rid of this. There is no living with this, evidenced by the shoite show to date.

We need to isolate our country.

Again, a reduced economy where life is normal is infinitely preferable to this craziness that's dragging us nowhere but down.

The luxury of avoiding the inevitable is time based, and that time is running out while people shout at the clouds about the inconvenience of it all.

You think we should completely isolate ourselves? Like North Korea. No one or nothing comes in or out?

caveat emptor

https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1312800383727738881?s=20

Rob A. Bank

This is not the first deadly viral pandemic and it will not be the last... Pandemics are a force of nature.

Ranting and raving against the virus, and the FEW ways we have to contain it at present, are the equivalent of getting upset about the weather or the tide coming in.

The problem the political right wing has is that it has been taken over by bonehead populists, who view government as at best problematic and at worst part of the problem.

When humankind is confronted by a pandemic that requires concerted and effective collective action to be dealt with... the only organizations that can do this are strong governments led by science.

They are faced then with a quandary. Their way out of it is to just deny the virus. It is all a hoax. it is just a flu. It will just vanish. Masks are not needed. It's not as bad as the science or statistics say. The lockdowns are not necessary. Herd immunity by letting it run rife. etc. etc.

They need to be slapped out of their alternative reality stat.

Eod100

Not surprising https://twitter.com/ZaraKing/status/1313122717022015490?s=19

Gradius

DeanAustin wrote: »

You think we should completely isolate ourselves? Like North Korea. No one or nothing comes in or out?

Not like North Korea that is laced with sanctions, no.

Movement of people in and out needs to stop.

s1ippy

Eod100 wrote: »

Not surprising https://twitter.com/ZaraKing/status/1313122717022015490?s=19

I'll do it if they're stuck

GooglePlus

stephenjmcd wrote: »

This would be the one
https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/2dc71-level-5/

That's the one. Not sure why he even shared that, you're dead right.

Eod100

is_that_so wrote: »

3+ for the rest with 4+ for Dublin and Donegal? Timescale 2 weeks minimum?

Possibly. Think it would be 3 week minimum. Risk is they have to bring it level 5 after it anyway as Christmas quickly approaches