Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

Drumpot

tom1ie wrote: »

Are you able to get a test (antibody test?) to see if you’ve had Covid?
Is this service available in Ireland?

I know a health and safety manager who got his hands on some for staff. He tested himself and it showed he had the virus at some stage. Back in March he was very sick and got tested and he tested negative back then.

CalamariFritti

Boggles wrote: »

Really?

What's the fraction?

In actual numbers what will be the hospitalization and causality rate from a "controlled" spread and how long would it take?

Ball park.

How would I know? I'd wager however it'll be in the same ball park as the flu. A handful for every 10,000.

tom1ie

Drumpot wrote: »

I know a health and safety manager who got his hands on some for staff.

He tested himself and it showed he had the virus. Back in March he was very sick and got tested and he tested negative back then.

Where can you get that type of test? Is it expensive?
How reliable are the results?

CalamariFritti

tom1ie wrote: »

Are you able to get a test (antibody test?) to see if you’ve had Covid?
Is this service available in Ireland?

It is, was going to get one myself, but unfortunately they seem highly inaccurate. Might as well flip a coin.

s1ippy

is_that_so wrote: »

Not getting them into hospitals in the first place would be my read on that. There's quite a cost as well to a massive expansion and it takes people away from normal health service activities.

The direction this is taking indicates that it may already be too late to row back and aim to not overwhelm hospitals. The action needs to be taken before we're halfway there.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/coronavirus-vaccine-15-billion-doses-needed-to-inoculate-the-planet-1.4361794
This 16m figure seems wrong to me. If you remove China and Russia (as they claim to already have their own vaccines) it would be closer to 10bn needed. This winter is the least of our worries in the scheme of things if the vaccine proves ineffective or impossible.

wadacrack

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Thats nonsense. And even if it wasn't its still preferrable to infinity.

As much as people are on about unethical the fact is - not just my opinion, fact - that this virus is out and will not be put back into its box. Every decision thereafter has to be driven by this.

Edit: We gonna end up in this position one way or the other. Inevitably. The question is how much kicking and screaming we're willing to endure in the meantime.

Ebola, influenza, Hib, swine flu, rubella, mumps, hepatitis A+B, yellow fever, rabies were all vaccinated and under control. SARS & MERS (both coronavirus') & Nipah eliminated, herd immunity was NOT an option for any of those virus's . Herd immunity a concept people like to think will work, rarely works with viruses in real life.Immune response can vary among the population. The Ro is currently about 1.5 in Europe.

If its kept below 1 for a prolonged period then an elimination strategy can become a viable option. With NPI this was done so with a vaccine and more effective testing and tracing then it becomes a viable option. If a vaccine is highly effective and keep the Ro below 1 then normal life can resume.

Drumpot

tom1ie wrote: »

Where can you get that type of test? Is it expensive?
How reliable are the results?

That I don’t know, I’ve looked online and haven’t been able to get a reliable alternative.

Hector Savage

SeaBreezes wrote: »

All of china, NZ would disagree with you that its impossible to shutdown.

China we can't trust.

NZ and Australia will have more spikes, all they are doing is delaying this, zero covid is a nonsense strategy.

We will see as they enter their summer how hard it is to lock down the residents.
Dictator Ardhern will have a tough time.

stephenjmcd

beaz2018 wrote: »

De Gascun saying more restrictions needed and no vaccine in 2021 (today's independent). We are in this misery for the very long haul unless someone gets a grip!

No what he said was a vaccine may not come, he never said no vaccine. I'll quote it,

"It may not happen and it certainly may not happen in the next six to 12 months,"

Thats none committal either way.

Those involved in vaccine development would disagree with him though.

is_that_so

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No what he said was a vaccine may not come, he never said no vaccine.

Those involved in vaccine development would disagree with him though.

It's managing expectations and most efforts of late have been about pushing us to follow the standard advice.

stephenjmcd

is_that_so wrote: »

It's managing expectations and most of recent efforts of late have been about pushing us to follow the standard advice.

Exactly. By being non committal either way there is no expectations and if a vaccine is developed and distributed beginning say Q1 2021 they can say this is great we'll start to roll out to population but currently they won't commit to say Q1 or any other date.

If one isn't developed then its well we flagged this back in September and told you all to follow the guidelines

Roger_007

wadacrack wrote: »

Ebola, influenza, Hib, swine flu, rubella, mumps, hepatitis A+B, yellow fever, rabies were all vaccinated and under control. SARS & MERS (both coronavirus') & Nipah eliminated, herd immunity was NOT an option for any of those virus's . Herd immunity a concept people like to think will work, rarely works with viruses in real life.Immune response can vary among the population. The Ro is currently about 1.5 in Europe.

If its kept below 1 for a prolonged period then an elimination strategy can become a viable option. With NPI this was done so with a vaccine and more effective testing and tracing then it becomes a viable option. If a vaccine is highly effective and keep the Ro below 1 then normal life can resume.

When was MERS eliminated? As far as I’m aware it’s still circulating in Saudi, although at a low level and no vaccine exists for it!

podgeandrodge

podgeandrodge wrote: »

The HPSC said "the outbreaks are associated with school children and or school staff" but it said the "transmission of Covid-19 within the school has not necessarily been established".


It seems to be more with schools that they try harder to say it wasn't necessarily the cause. Don't hear them talk about a restaurant in those terms.

Because they know it will engender hysteria

CalamariFritti

wadacrack wrote: »

Ebola, influenza, Hib, swine flu, rubella, mumps, hepatitis A+B, yellow fever, rabies were all vaccinated and under control. SARS & MERS (both coronavirus') & Nipah eliminated, herd immunity was NOT an option for any of those virus's . Herd immunity a concept people like to think will work, rarely works with viruses in real life.Immune response can vary among the population. The Ro is currently about 1.5 in Europe.

If its kept below 1 for a prolonged period then an elimination strategy can become a viable option. With NPI this was done so with a vaccine and more effective testing and tracing then it becomes a viable option. If a vaccine is highly effective and keep the Ro below 1 then normal life can resume.

I agree that this is true. But every virus has different parameters in terms of infectiousness and severity. Which makes some viruses more 'successful' than others. The high infectiousness and low fatality of cov2 makes it very hard to contain I understand. Something the WHO has acknowledged from day 1.

The question really is how long are we prepared to live in lockdown limbo when its not that dangerous to the vast vast majority of people?

Even a vaccine solution is basically artificially induced immunity. While there is no vaccine in sight we might as well make steps towards immunity in a controlled and natural fashion rather than be treading water and have lockdown hanging over us.

AdamD

beaz2018 wrote: »

De Gascun saying more restrictions needed and no vaccine in 2021 (today's independent). We are in this misery for the very long haul unless someone gets a grip!

If they don't envisage a vacccine in 2021 then these restrictions are a farce. That would mean NPHET are expecting to implement restrictions for 21+ months. That would utterly destroy the country.

Hector Savage

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No what he said was a vaccine may not come, he never said no vaccine. I'll quote it,

"It may not happen and it certainly may not happen in the next six to 12 months,"

Thats none committal either way.

Those involved in vaccine development would disagree with him though.

Well at least finally they've reduced the timeline, it was getting tedious 12-18 months ... for the last 8 months ....

prunudo

McConkey getting his doom and gloom oar in. Wants us in level 5 from the clip I heard this morning.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/highest-restricion-levels-needed-1080153

Roger_007

prunudo wrote: »

McConkey getting his doom and gloom oar in. Wants us in level 5 from the clip I heard this morning.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/highest-restricion-levels-needed-1080153

McConkey is enjoying his celebrity status a wee bit too much.:rolleyes:

Boggles

CalamariFritti wrote: »

How would I know? I'd wager however it'll be in the same ball park as the flu. A handful for every 10,000.

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Not everyone over 60 is at risk. Once we have had full exposure we will learn that only a tiny fraction of people are gettin life threateningly sick from this. Hell we already learned this but we refuse to acknowledge it.

Because you said you know.

It's the problem with people advocating the herd immunity "strategy", when they are asked the most simplistic questions about the negative effects of such a strategy you get radio silence.

Or they become belligerent and just bizarrely shout "What would James Joyce think?" into a web cam.

Now to be fair she was quite clearly wankered off her face on some substance.

She reminded me of Uncle Monty from Withnail & I.

Jimi H

I’m pretty sure there are probably high levels of discontent in every jurisdiction no matter what approach their government is taking. I had been hopeful of a vaccine in the first half of next year but that seems unlikely now (or does it?). Hard to see how we can afford to continually lock down areas over a long period or how to keep the public on board. On the other hand, the ability or inability of our health services to cope with the oncoming winter even without Covid is very worrying.

Maybe there is scope to retrain or redeploy people whose jobs won’t survive to work in construction, forestry, renewables, testing and tracing etc. Very difficult to get a good balance but we probably need a solution between the two extremes.

prunudo

Roger_007 wrote: »

McConkey is enjoying his celebrity status a wee bit too much.:rolleyes:

He's not the only one, they must have been having withdrawal symptoms during the summer, back to March/April levels of fearmongering and granny killing statements the last few days.

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Exactly. By being non committal either way there is no expectations and if a vaccine is developed and distributed beginning say Q1 2020 they can say this is great we'll start to roll out to population but currently they won't commit to say Q1 or any other date.

If one isn't developed then its well we flagged this back in September and told you all to follow the guidelines

Wouldn’t it be great if we all woke up and it’s New Year’s Eve 2019 and on the stroke of midnight when the fireworks go off, they shoot out the vaccine to everyone.



I wish your typo and my fantasy was real life right now.

alentejo

podgeandrodge wrote: »

The HPSC said "the outbreaks are associated with school children and or school staff" but it said the "transmission of Covid-19 within the school has not necessarily been established".


It seems to be more with schools that they try harder to say it wasn't necessarily the cause. Don't hear them talk about a restaurant in those terms.

Schools must continue to open and teach as much as possible. Yes, it is entirely that individual schools or classes might need to close on a 2/3 week basis, however any closures should be minimal. I think people need to take some of the hysteria about school cases.

Closing schools will cause long term damage to children which will last way beyond the pandemic. The damage to children will be amplified to poor and more disadvantaged children

billybonkers

So the West Ham game went ahead last night despite their manager and 2 players testing positive 1 hour before kick off....

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/sep/22/david-moyes-leaves-west-ham-game-after-covid-19-positive-test

Real role model stuff there!

AdamD

billybonkers wrote: »

So the West Ham game went ahead last night despite their manager and 2 players testing positive 1 hour before kick off....

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/sep/22/david-moyes-leaves-west-ham-game-after-covid-19-positive-test

Real role model stuff there!

Yeah so everyone who played the game had tested negative...

Seems fine

wadacrack

billybonkers wrote: »

So the West Ham game went ahead last night despite their manager and 2 players testing positive 1 hour before kick off....

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/sep/22/david-moyes-leaves-west-ham-game-after-covid-19-positive-test

Real role model stuff there!

Everyone was tested. They have protocols in place and their is still no evidence that the virus spreads in a football match. All Arsenal players are negative too despite playing West Ham on Saturday. Illustrates the risk of outdoor transmission and playing sports I would think. The Premier League I think have handled it very well. Clearly the protocols in place are working

GooglePlus

AdamD wrote: »

Yeah so everyone who played the game had tested negative...

Seems fine

What if they were false negatives and the positive players were false positives? You just have to assume that everyone has it and doesn't at the same time. Don't move a muscle.

CalamariFritti

Boggles wrote: »

Because you said you know.

It's the problem with people advocating the herd immunity "strategy", when they are asked the most simplistic questions about the negative effects of such a strategy you get radio silence.

Or they become belligerent and just bizarrely shout "What would James Joyce think?" into a web cam.

Now to be fair she was quite clearly wankered off her face on some substance.

She reminded me of Uncle Monty from Withnail & I.

I'm not going to lie, I dont know the exact numbers and nobody knows that, but I'm also able to explain why I think its going to be very very low.

Its simply because the more we learn about the true spread of the virus - not only the small number that we have tested positive - the more the number of severe cases is going down in relation to positive tests. Positive tests are going up and up while hospitalisations remain somewhat constant.

At the start we went with 15% hospitalisation and 5% severe. Now we're down to 2.5% and 0.2%. The more we learn about the true spread these numbers will continue to decrease.

What they will eventually arrive at nobody knows for sure. But I have no doubt that the true number of infected - or exposed I should say - is still much larger than reported positives.

Several representative studies have been carried out so far and they all seem to indicate an IFR number in around a handful for every 10,000. And they still don't take into account the group of people who never test positive and never have antibodies. That group seems not insignificant in numbers, could 30% or more.

So yes I'm guessing but its not completely something I pulled out of my bottom.

Roger_007

alentejo wrote: »

Schools must continue to open and teach as much as possible. Yes, it is entirely that individual schools or classes might need to close on a 2/3 week basis, however any closures should be minimal. I think people need to take some of the hysteria about school cases.

Closing schools will cause long term damage to children which will last way beyond the pandemic. The damage to children will be amplified to poor and more disadvantaged children

It’s not just schoolchildren who will suffer long-term damage. Young adults in particular are being denied normal social interaction. There is a fundamental human need to socialise. How are young adults supposed to meet other young people and form friendships and relationships.
The very fabric of society is being torn up by people who live in their own bubble of self-importance.
If some of these so called experts were asked to advise you on how to deal with an infestation of mice in your house, they would probably advise you burn down the house.

AdamD

GooglePlus wrote: »

What if they were false negatives and the positive players were false positives? You just have to assume that everyone has it and doesn't at the same time. Don't move a muscle.

Ah here. Is this the real world? In that case they may as well not bother with a testing system at all. And not bother attempting to keep their sport and livelihoods going.

Thankfully they're using a bit more sense.